Kuzul

Forget shoulders—the Toronto Blue Jays‘ season rests squarely on Josh Donaldson’s right hip.

Donaldson underwent an MRI on Wednesday, per the Associated Press (h/t USA Today). The results were unknown as of this writing, but the injury has been enough to keep the reigning American League MVP out of the lineup for the last three games.

The hip tweak ostensibly occurred when Donaldson stepped awkwardly on first base in a game against the Boston Red Sox on Sunday, per MLB.com’s Alykhan Ravjiani. But it was apparently a cumulative problem.

“Pretty much all season long it’s been—not necessarily my hip—but pretty much lower body injuries all season,” Donaldson said, per Ravjiani. “That’s more of the gradual thing, and then all of a sudden I felt it in my hip where I didn’t feel like I was able to perform.”

Whatever the genesis, the injury undoubtedly has Jays fans on edge, as this tweet, courtesy of Sportsnet.ca’s Tim Micallef and Sid Seixeiro, perfectly illustrates: 

You don’t need to be reminded how important Donaldson is to this Toronto team, but we’ll remind you anyway. He ranks fourth in the AL with 6.6 WAR. He’s second on the Jays in home runs (34) and RBI (92) and paces the team in OPS (.952).

Yes, the three-time All-Star third baseman was mired in an 0-for-23 slump that may have been a result of the lower-body troubles he alluded to. But he’s the beating heart of this offense, no two ways about it. If he’s out much longer, or if he returns at significantly less than 100 percent, Toronto is probably hosed.

After losing 8-1 Wednesday to the cellar-dwelling Tampa Bay Rays, the Jays (79-66) are clinging to the AL’s second wild-card slot. But they’ve fallen into third place in the AL East, behind the first-place Boston Red Sox (81-64) and wild-card-leading Baltimore Orioles (80-65). 

The Detroit Tigers (78-67), Seattle Mariners (77-68) and upstart New York Yankees (77-68), meanwhile, are breathing down the Blue Jays’ neck. If they continue the trend that’s seen them go 3-9 in September, they’ll likely finish out of the postseason money.

Toronto’s issues go deeper than Donaldson. Other key hitters, including Jose Bautista and Russell Martin, have faltered. Right-hander Aaron Sanchez, once in the Cy Young Award conversation, owns a 5.00-plus ERA since the start of August. And the bullpen has suffered some hiccups.

“I don’t see how much lower it can go,” skipper John Gibbons said after Wednesday’s defeat, per the Toronto Star‘s Rosie Dimanno. “I’m optimistic that this will turn and turn in a hurry.”

If it doesn’t, Toronto will spiral earlier than expected into an uncertain offseason. 

Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, cornerstones of an offense that lit the world on fire during the 2015 division-title run and is again among baseball’s most powerful, will hit the market this winter.

In a weak free-agent class, it’s probable both men will command contracts beyond the Blue Jays’ modest means. They could end up signing with either the Yankees or Red Sox, both of whom have gaudy payrolls, solid MLB talent and fertile MiLB farms.

The Jays have some pieces of their own in the pipeline. But it’s a stretch to expect adequate Bautista and Encarnacion replacements from a system Bleacher Report’s Joel Reuter ranked No. 19 in baseball.

As Scott Stinson of the National Post aptly opined, “If there is a chunk of the fanbase that is exceedingly anxious now, it will take every one of the city’s recently opened marijuana dispensaries to calm nerves should the heart of the lineup move to the neighbouring rivals.”

The Jays aren’t necessarily sunk—this season or going forward. An upcoming four-game set against the lowly Los Angeles Angels offers an opportunity to get healthy in more ways than one.

But former Boston general manager Ben Cherington—whom Toronto hired as its new vice president of baseball operations Wednesday, per Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith—has his work cut out for him if he’s going to keep the club competitive with its big-spending, heavy-hitting division rivals.

It’s too early to talk about windows closing just yet. But unless the Jays find a way to right this ship posthaste, Donaldson’s hip won’t be the only thing that’s hurting.

All statistics and standings current as of Wednesday and courtesy of MLB.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.

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The Toronto Blue Jays announced the hiring of former Boston Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington as their new vice president of baseball operations Wednesday.

Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet received word from the team. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet noted Cherington’s role will focus on player development.

Cherington, 42, had been out of Major League Baseball since resigning as the Boston Red Sox general manager in August 2015. His departure was part of an organizational shuffle that saw Dave Dombrowski take over Boston’s baseball operations.

The Red Sox won the 2013 World Series under Cherington’s watch but were in the midst of back-to-back last-place finishes when he resigned.

The team made the playoffs just once during his tenure. However, he acquired a majority of the young stars who are leading Boston’s playoff push in 2016.

“I don’t mind talking about my own shortcomings, my mistakes,” Cherington told the Boston Globe‘s Alex Speier. “I think there is plenty we did right over time. I don’t mind talking about the things that we didn’t or that I didn’t—even things I would do differently. In that sense, I’m fine being in the dunk tank.”

Cherington began his career in 1998 with a short scouting stint with the Cleveland Indians. He then spent more than a decade in the Red Sox organization, working his way up.

Cherington joins a Blue Jays front office that has seen its fair share of shuffling over the last year. Ross Atkins joined as the general manager in December following a lengthy stint with the Indians. He replaced Alex Anthopoulos, whom the team let go after a half-decade of up-and-down performances.

With the team sitting at 79-66 entering play Wednesday, it wouldn’t seem Atkins’ job is in jeopardy. But having two cooks in the kitchen could create an interesting dynamic. Even if Cherington’s job is mostly on the player-development side—where he has a strong resume—there’s always a risk in adding someone else with a World Series ring and GM experience.

Follow Tyler Conway (@jtylerconway) on Twitter.

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Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson was dealing with a hip injury that caused him to miss three games; however, he is ready to return. 

Continue for updates. 

Donaldson Active vs. Angels

Thursday, Sept. 15

Donaldson was listed in Thursday’s lineup batting second as the designated hitter, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

Donaldson to Undergo Testing

Wednesday, Sept. 14

Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins told reporters Donaldson will undergo an MRI on his hip, adding the injury has not “significantly” responded to treatment, and there is no timeline for his return.

Donaldson Vital to Jays’ Playoff Push

In his second full season in Toronto, Donaldson is in the midst of another brilliant campaign. He’s hitting .284/.400/.552 with 34 home runs and 92 runs batted in. While it’s an uphill battle for him to win two straight MVPs, Donaldson remains optimistic about the possibility. 

“I feel like it’s kind of hard to do that back-to-back,” Donaldson said, per Steven Loung of Sportsnet. “You don’t see a lot of guys run the ship back-to-back. Look, Manny [Machado’s] having a great year, [Jose] Altuve’s having a great year. Fact of the matter is there’s time.”

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With a good September, the Toronto Blue Jays could repeat as American League East champions.

With a good September, Josh Donaldson could repeat, too.

The Blue Jays moved back into first place with Friday night’s 15-8 rout of the Minnesota Twins, as their rivals in Baltimore and Boston both lost. Donaldson may not have moved into first place in the MVP race with his 30th home run, but he could be setting up for the kind of month that would put him there.

He’s already got a better case than you might think.

His traditional numbers aren’t as flashy as the ones that won him the MVP last year. He almost certainly won’t get to the 41 home runs and 123 RBI he had in 2015 (he’s at 30 and 85 with 34 games remaining).

But Donaldson’s .958 OPS is actually higher than the .939 he won with last year.

As for his value, check this out: Twenty-five of Donaldson’s 30 home runs have come in Blue Jay wins, as have 70 of his 85 RBI. He’s a .343 hitter when they win and a .216 hitter when they don’t.

Obviously, most hitters do better when their teams win. If Donaldson hit better in a few of those games the Blue Jays lost, at all those times when their entire offense stalled, they’d have a much bigger division lead.

The point still holds. When Donaldson hits, the Blue Jays tend to win. If he hits in September the way he hit in June (1.193 OPS) and July (1.019), you like the Blue Jays’ chances in the East.

In those two months, when Donaldson was red-hot, the Blue Jays ranked second and fourth in the major leagues in runs, at more than five a game. This month, which until this week hasn’t been one of Donaldson’s best, the Jays were averaging barely four runs a game (27th in the majors), before Friday night’s explosion.

Jose Bautista missed two weeks with soreness in his left knee, before returning Thursday. Kevin Pillar was out with a thumb injury, before coming back Tuesday.

Their returns should help the Blue Jays lineup, but the most significant return this week could be that of Donaldson’s home run swing. He had homered just once in 16 games before Thursday and drove in only five runs in that span, as he played with a jammed thumb.

He connected off Jered Weaver on Thursday and connected again off Twins starter Pat Dean in the second inning Friday. After never hitting 30 in a season before coming to Toronto, Donaldson has done it two straight years for the Blue Jays.

As of now, he probably isn’t the 2016 MVP. Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels, once again leading the league in WAR (8.0, the way Baseball-Reference.com calculates it), will get some votes. Mookie Betts, who has helped carry the Red Sox into the AL East race, is getting some support.

Jose Altuve of the Houston Astros has a big lead in the batting race. David Ortiz of the Red Sox leads in OPS (1.042). Donaldson’s teammate, Edwin Encarnacion, leads with 102 RBI.

With just over a month to go, it’s a race still to be won—sort of like the AL East.

As I wrote Thursday, the division race is a tough one to call. The Blue Jays aren’t the exciting newcomers, and they didn’t make the big midseason deals like the ones last year for David Price and Troy Tulowitzki.

Still, they’re in first place, with just over five weeks to play.

Donaldson isn’t the flashy MVP choice this year, either. He set a Blue Jays record with three walk-off home runs in 2015; he hasn’t hit any of them this year.

His walk total is up, perhaps because pitchers are showing the defending MVP more respect. His RBI total is down, perhaps because there haven’t been as many opportunities.

“They’re trying to take the bat out of my hand more often this year,” Donaldson told Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star.

They don’t want to let Donaldson beat them, and it’s easy to understand why.

But doesn’t that just show how valuable he can be?

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball.

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A woman is suing Toronto Blue Jays designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion for battery, TMZ Sports revealed on Monday. 

The woman alleges Encarnacion gave her two sexually transmitted diseases following a February trip to the Dominican Republic and is requesting more than $11.5 million in damages. Encarnacion’s agent offered no comment to TMZ Sports regarding the allegations.

A league official told John Lott of Vice Sports that MLB had no statement regarding a potential investigation as of Monday. 

Encarnacion’s agent Paul Kinzer commented on the lawsuit in a statement released to Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi on Tuesday:

[Encarnacion] will take every legal measure to defend himself against this frivolous claim, and will bring appropriate claims in the appropriate forums against all of the individuals seeking to exploit his financial position. This is an unacceptable attack on his exceptional character and stellar reputation within the baseball community as a man who carries himself with the highest level of integrity. …

Mr. Encarnacion will not be commenting on this matter. He will not allow this to distract from his continued focus of contributing to his team’s success. We kindly ask that his privacy be respected.

The woman said she had an STD test following a separate encounter with a Blue Jays player in 2015, and the results came back negative for any disease. After returning from the Dominican Republic, the woman visited a doctor, who discovered the presence of two STDs.

The woman alleges Encarnacion misled her as to whether he had any STDs at the time of their February rendezvous.

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For some teams, questing for a World Series trophy requires sticking with whatever’s working.

The Toronto Blue Jays don’t have that luxury.

Things are mostly good for the reigning AL East champs. Their 68-52 record puts them a game ahead of the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox in this year’s race. They’re 57-38 since opening with a thud in April. Neither the Orioles nor the Red Sox have that kind of momentum.

The prime mover in the Blue Jays’ 2015 success was their offense, which is still going strong with the third-most runs in the American League this season. But with a 3.73 ERA that leads the AL—Cleveland is second at 3.80—Toronto’s starting pitching has been even better. The usual wisdom says not to fix it if it ain’t broke.

The Blue Jays, though, have been determined to try to fix it so that it doesn’t break.

Such is the point of moving from a five-man rotation to a six-man rotation. It was either that or transition Aaron Sanchez, a youngster with a 2.84 ERA, to the bullpen to preserve a right arm that’s already thrown a career-high 152.1 innings.

But since that would have required replacing Sanchez with new arrival Francisco Liriano, a veteran with a 5.46 ERA, it’s understandable that general manager Ross Atkins came down on the side of “nope.”

“The biggest thing is input from different people after something was more concrete, or closer to it, and the fact that Francisco Liriano was so open to everything,” Atkins said, per Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com. “Then the more we thought about the potential of a six-man rotation not just benefiting Aaron but benefiting the others in the rotation at this point in the season.”

Because the comparisons are unavoidable, this is a case of the Blue Jays being more like the 2015 New York Mets with Matt Harvey than the 2012 Washington Nationals with Stephen Strasburg. Rather than let Sanchez pitch until he maxes out his innings and then shut him down, the Blue Jays are spacing out his innings in hopes that he’ll still have some bullets left for the postseason.

To boot, the Blue Jays don’t have to worry about the Tommy John factor. They’re merely cognizant of the fact Sanchez has already pitched 19 more innings than he ever has as a pro. They don’t want to wear him out. The man himself seems to want the same thing.

“You got to look long term with this,” he said in late July, according to Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star. “I’m not just here to pitch in 2016. I’m here to pitch five, six, seven [years], however long it is.”

Nobody’s saying this is a foolproof plan. Not even Atkins, who said “there’s no perfect answer, there’s no absolute” to the Sanchez conundrum, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

The obvious drawback is that a six-man rotation means the Blue Jays will be limiting the exposure of not only Sanchez but also of J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada and Marcus Stroman. Happ also has a 2.96 ERA. Estrada is at 3.20. Stroman has pitched to a 3.27 ERA in eight starts since July 1.

If anyone is wringing his or her hands over how having a wrench thrown into their routines might mess with Toronto’s starters, it’s not just you.

“If you had a bad start, that would be hard to sit on for five days and then go out and pitch on the sixth day,” former Blue Jays All-Star Roy Halladay said, according to Ryan Wolstat of the Toronto Sun. “That, for me, would be the tough part, having a short, two-, three-, four-inning start and then thinking, ‘Man, I’ve got to wait this much longer to get out there again.'”

However, any and all hand-wringing may be much ado about nothing. 

It’s not easy to study six-man rotations directly—there haven’t been many of them, and they don’t tend to last—but Russell Carleton investigated the effect of extra rest at Fox Sports.

His findings: “I looked at strikeouts and walks and home runs and singles and a few other outcomes. Pitchers pitching with extra rest don’t actually show any extra ability. They don’t suffer for it either. They just kinda pitch like we would normally expect.”

As long as extra rest doesn’t have a negative effect, that bodes well for Toronto’s six-man rotation. 

And there’s more! Although Carleton posited a six-man rotation “wouldn’t necessarily make pitchers less susceptible to the injury bug,” Rob Arthur suggested otherwise at FiveThirtyEight. From 2006 through 2014, he found that 1.7 percent of pitchers who started on three days’ rest reported an injury within two weeks. On the normal four days’ rest, the rate dropped to 1.0 percent. On five days’ rest, the rate dropped to 0.8 percent.

This bodes even better for the Blue Jays’ experiment. It would be one thing if they were spreading out a collection of starters who were all in their physical prime. Instead, the picture looks like this:

• Aaron Sanchez: a 24-year-old who is already in uncharted innings territory.
• Marcus Stroman: an undersized 25-year-old who is on track to exceed his high of 166.1 innings.
• J.A. Happ: a 33-year-old who has never topped 172 innings.
• Marco Estrada: a 33-year-old who’s maxed out at 181 innings and who’s been limited to 132.1 innings this season by a bad back.
• Francisco Liriano: a 32-year-old who hasn’t topped 190 innings since 2010, in part because of occasional health woes.
• R.A. Dickey: a knuckleballer who has been durable but who is also 41 years old.

It’s hard to imagine a more perfect test subject for a six-man rotation. These guys have gotten the Blue Jays this far. But for that to last, they may need the breather they’re getting.

Whether this experiment will work is still a matter of “if.” Hence the use of the word “experiment.” If each team had enough talented pitchers for a six-man rotation and there was tried-and-true evidence of its effectiveness, they’d be the norm. Until then, six-man rotations will remain oddities that inspire more curiosity than conclusions.

But there isn’t much to suggest six-man rotations are inherently dangerous. And in the case of the Blue Jays, it could be just the thing to preserve not only their best pitcher but also all of their pitchers. If it works, they’ll waltz into the postseason with a strong offense and strong pitching.

It never hurts to have either of those things in October. Having both can only help.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked. All stats and records up to date heading into Wednesday’s games. 

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Aaron Sanchez has one of the best ERAs in the American League, and his Toronto Blue Jays have one of the best records in baseball.

And all anyone wants to talk about is whether the Jays should keep starting him.

On the surface, the discussion is nuts. This isn’t to say the Blue Jays are crazy to look for ways to protect a kid who just turned 24 and is just starting to fulfill his potential as a first-round draft pick in 2010. The Jays weren’t necessarily wrong when they hatched a plan to move Sanchez to the bullpen at midseason. They’re not necessarily wrong now either, as they experiment with a six-man rotation designed to answer their big Sanchez question.

“It’s not for you or me to say what the Blue Jays should or shouldn’t do,” said Dr. Glenn Fleisig, who has a Ph.D. in biomedical engineering and a career full of studies related to the pitching arm and how to protect it.

The problem with that, of course, is we all want to have a say—just as we did when the Washington Nationals shut down Stephen Strasburg in 2012 or when the New York Mets didn’t shut Matt Harvey down a year ago. We want to learn from those decisions, even though there’s no way to really know if the Strasburg shutdown kept him healthy (and helped make him one of MLB‘s best) or if Harvey’s continued play had anything to do with the injury that did shut him down this summer.

Sanchez is different, because unlike Strasburg and Harvey, he’s not coming back from Tommy John surgery. But Sanchez is also similar. He’s a young pitcher heading for a big innings jump on a team with World Series aspirations, and that team is debating how much he should pitch.

The Strasburg question only mattered to us because he was so good and his playoff-bound team depended on him. The Harvey question mattered to us for the same reason.

We hadn’t faced the issue at that level before. Not because teams didn’t shut pitchers down (they did), but because either the pitchers weren’t overwhelmingly good at the time or their teams weren’t. When the Nationals shut down Jordan Zimmermann in 2011, they were 22.5 games out of first place in the NL East.

The Blue Jays took over the AL East Wednesday. Sanchez, with his 2.85 ERA and 11-2 record, is a big part of the reason they’re that good.

The problem is that before this year, Sanchez had never pitched more than 133.1 innings in a season. He’s already at 145.1 this year. If he pitched every fifth game the rest of the way and continued to average 6.6 innings per start, he’d be well over 200 innings before the playoffs began.

There’s plenty of debate over how risky a big innings boost is for a young pitcher who doesn’t have any other obvious warning signs (previous injury, fatigue, velocity drop, etc.). Whatever the risk is, though, the Blue Jays want to mitigate it.

“I did make one absolute statement, this guy is not going to pitch 220 innings this year, he’s not going to pitch 230 innings,” Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro told MLB Network Radio (via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca) last week.

The original plan—one the Blue Jays had been quite open about since spring training—was that at some point during the season, they would move Sanchez to the bullpen. Relievers don’t pitch as many innings as starters, and Sanchez was effective out of the pen last year, so it seemed like a way to let him keep contributing without overdoing his innings.

The Sanchez-to-the-pen plan played into the Jays’ July trading strategy—they acquired starting pitcher Francisco Liriano from the Pittsburgh Pirates just before the Aug. 1 deadline. That acquisition turned the Sanchez question into one that required an immediate answer. Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins joined the team in Houston on Aug. 4 to provide it.

The answer, at least for now: Sanchez stays in the rotation. The Jays use a six-man rotation, and if they keep it through the end of the season, Sanchez will likely drop from 10 more starts to eight. Meanwhile, they keep a close watch for signs of fatigue and also consider skipping starts.

“The most likely scenario is that he stays in the rotation for some time to come,” Atkins said, according to Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com.

That seems perfectly reasonable given what we know now. The problem is that we know so little.

Fleisig said that while studies have been done on usage risks to high school pitchers, there hasn’t yet been enough research of the effects on professional pitchers.

“I wish I had a better answer,” he said. “But the good news is that we are working on it.”

Fleisig was referring to a five-year study being conducted in cooperation with MLB and the MLB Players Association. They began with pitchers chosen in the 2014-16 drafts, doing MRI imaging, physical exams and biomechanical analysis of pitching mechanics, and closely monitoring their usage and health. The plan is to determine how all of these factors together predict risk of injury in professional pitchers.

Until then, we have opinions and what amount to educated guesses. We have another team in another pennant race trying to keep another young pitcher healthy for the future while also trying to win now.

I wish I had a better answer, too.

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball.

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Toronto Blue Jays outfielder Kevin Pillar suffered a left thumb sprain and was placed on the disabled list on Monday. It is uncertain when he will return to action. 

Continue for updates.

Pillar Placed on 15-Day DL

Monday, Aug. 8

The Blue Jays announced the roster move, noting outfielder Darrell Ceciliani was recalled to take his place.

Pillar’s Absence Will Test Toronto’s OF Depth

This is a difficult injury for the Blue Jays to swallow, as Pillar had a breakout season in 2015 with career highs in home runs (12), RBI (56) and stolen bases (25). He provides occasional pop in an already loaded lineup, but he also helps set the table for the dangerous power hitters in the middle of the order with his speed and ability to take the extra base.

Thus far, he’s hitting .292 with seven home runs and 45 RBI in 2016.

His speed also allows him to cover plenty of ground in the outfield, which makes him particularly valuable on the defensive side. According to FanGraphs, Pillar was responsible for 22 total defensive runs saved above average in the outfield last season alone.

The silver lining for the Blue Jays is the fact they still have plenty of offensive firepower even without Pillar. The combination of Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion is arguably the best trio of power hitters in any lineup in the league, and Toronto led the majors in runs scored by a large margin (127) in 2015. 

Yes, Pillar is a critical presence in the order because of his speed and ability to get on base (he posted a career-high .314 on-base percentage in 2015), but there are still enough offensive pieces in Toronto to challenge for a World Series without him.

Perhaps the biggest loss will be in the field, which means Ezequiel Carrera will likely have to shoulder some of the load with his glove.

It is unfair to expect Carrera (or anyone else) to replicate Pillar’s production, especially after the latter’s breakout season, but the replacement outfielder can at least sufficiently plug a hole for Toronto as it chases a championship.

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If you’re a fan of star-studded Major League Baseball free-agent classes, I come bearing bad news. There’s not going to be one this winter. Sorry.

But hey, at least Edwin Encarnacion will be out there. That’s something. A big something, even.

The Toronto Blue Jays slugger is one of those guys who’s easy to lose sight of, but he’s also someone you just know is probably doing his thing at any given moment. Sure enough, doing his thing is how he contributed to a 4-1 victory over the Houston Astros on Thursday. In the ninth inning, he clocked the ball over the left field fence and rounded the bases with his right arm cocked out:

Encarnacion’s latest long ball was his 30th of 2016. The 33-year-old has now topped 30 dingers in each of the last five seasons, which rearranges the list of all the players who have done so to look like this:

• Edwin Encarnacion

Yup. That’s it. Just him.

Encarnacion also boasts a .902 OPS, putting him on track to make it five straight seasons with an OPS that begins with a nine. He has some company in that club, but it’s only one kinda-sorta-very important guy: Mike Trout.

For at least the next two months, the Blue Jays can take facts and figures like these as a reminder that they’re lucky to have Encarnacion. He wasn’t considered a top asset when he first came to town in 2009. Then came some of the best power in the game, which hasn’t regressed as he’s gotten older. Before long, it could help the Blue Jays win a second straight American League East title.

But after the next couple of months pass into legend, Encarnacion’s power will be available to the highest bidder.

The Blue Jays signed Encarnacion to one extension when they locked him up on a three-year, $29 million deal back in 2012. That’s turned out to be a severe underpay, so it’s no wonder he isn’t looking to settle for less than market value as he heads toward free agency.

Back in April, this was the situation, as told by Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports:

Odds are Toronto’s next offer to Encarnacion will only be the qualifying offer. ESPN’s Buster Olney reported it will be worth $16.7 million this winter, per sources. That’s a lot of money, but Encarnacion would surely turn it down and risk going out into the open market with draft-pick compensation hanging over his head.

There’s a sliver of a chance of that strategy backfiring. If there’s anything the free-agent market is as wary or more wary of than players tied to draft-pick compensation, it’s older players. With his age-34 season due up in 2017, Encarnacion will fit both descriptions.

He’s also not without his flaws. He can hold his own at first base, but the best role for him will be as a full-time designated hitter. And with his previously excellent contact habit now merely average, at least one age-related crack is starting to show at the plate.

However, Encarnacion has two precedents from 2014 to turn to for hope. Nelson Cruz came off his age-33 season and got four years and $57 million from the Seattle Mariners, and Victor Martinez came off his age-35 season and got four years and $68 million from the Detroit Tigers. Good money for two older, bat-only players.

If there’s a handicap Encarnacion will face that neither of those two had to, it’s that the state of offense in MLB has changed dramatically. When Cruz and Martinez were free agents, the league was coming off a season when the average slugging percentage was .386. That number has skyrocketed to .417 in 2016, thanks to a barrage of dingers that has people talking about juiced balls and juiced players.

But teams are always going to need power. And this winter, the power market won’t have anyone who can measure up to Encarnacion.

Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports wrote in May that this winter will feature the worst free-agent class in decades. Part of the raw deal is a shortage of good power bats. The other big ones outside of Encarnacion will belong to fellow (for now) Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista, Mark Trumbo and, in all likelihood, Yoenis Cespedes. All three can match Encarnacion in raw power but not in consistency.

Even if his market is limited to American League clubs searching for a first base/DH type, it’s already apparent he could have one interested suitor in Boston. The Red Sox are due to say goodbye to longtime DH David Ortiz, and he knows who he wants to take up his mantle.

“The Red Sox know that they need to reinforce the middle of the lineup,” Ortiz said over the All-Star break, per Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald. “And sorry, Blue Jays, but who better than Encarnacion to do that?”

Then, Ortiz’s comments prompted MLB to open a tampering investigation. This offseason, the team could have president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and other Red Sox executives nodding in agreement. Encarnacion would indeed help the Red Sox replace Big Papi’s lost production. And as Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe noted, Red Sox skipper John Farrell and coaches Torey Lovullo and Brian Butterfield are all former Blue Jays who are fans of Encarnacion.

Apart from the Red Sox, other clubs that could be on the lookout for a power-hitting first base/DH type this winter are the Houston Astros, Texas Rangers and New York Yankees. If a couple of National League clubs are willing to roll the dice on him as a first baseman, his market will be robust.

It then wouldn’t be surprising if Encarnacion not only matches Cruz’s or Martinez’s deal but also beats either one. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors floated a possible four-year contract worth $20 million or more per year.

That would be a lot of money. But then again, Encarnacion hits a lot of dingers.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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The Toronto Blue Jays announced Monday that they acquired starting pitcher Francisco Liriano from the Pittsburgh Pirates prior to MLB‘s trade deadline. 

The Pirates also sent catcher Reese McGuire and outfielder Harold Ramirez, their eighth- and ninth-ranked prospects, respectively, per MLB.com, to the Blue Jays.

In return, Toronto shipped struggling starter Drew Hutchison, who was optioned to Triple-A on July 8, to the Pirates.

Liriano is trudging through one of the worst seasons of his career with a 6-11 record and 5.46 ERA. The 32-year-old, who is owed nearly $13.7 million next season, according to Spotrac, was dealt as “a pure salary dump,” per Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan.

The 59-46 Blue Jays currently sit 0.5 games behind the Baltimore Orioles for first place in the American League East thanks in part to their strong rotation. Blue Jays starters have posted a team 3.71 ERA, which is fifth-best in the majors.

However, Marcus Stroman, who was perceived as the team’s ace heading into the 2016 season, has a rotation-worst 4.92 ERA. Former Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey is 7-12 with a 4.66 mark. 

While Stroman and Dickey have struggled, the Blue Jays have received dazzling contributions from Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada:

Before this nightmare season, Liriano had an ERA under 3.40 in each of the past three years, but his ERA was above 5.00 three times between 2009 and 2012. His best campaign in recent seasons came in 2013, when he went 16-8 with a 3.02 ERA.

The Blue Jays and their fans will be hoping that Liriano can recapture his 2013-15 form, which would further bolster their rotation and postseason hopes.

Adding another arm who can deal with the big bats of the Orioles and Boston Red Sox may be the difference between playing in October and watching the postseason on TV. 

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.

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