Kuzul

Bob Elliot of the Toronto Sun reported recently that the Toronto Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos has called the Kansas City Royals to inquire about ace Zack Greinke and former first-rounder Alex Gordon. 

Greinke, one of the majors’ best starting pitchers, and the Kansas City Royals best player, is known to be on the trade block; however the availability of Alex Gordon is unknown.

Greinke is available for a number of reasons, the first being his comments regarding the Royals status as a “rebuilding” team.  When questioned about his thoughts on Kansas City’s top-shelf minor league talent and probability to be a contender by 2013, Greinke said, “There’s no reason for me to get real excited about it, because the chance of more than one of them making a major impact by the time my contract is up is pretty slim.”

Another reason that Zack Greinke is on the trading block is that his contract is up after the 2012 season so his value is at its highest despite a ‘down year’ on the mound. 

The third reason he is clearly on the trading block is that Royals’ G.M. Dayton Moore has made comments that he is willing to listen to offers on the 2009 Cy Young winner, and asked Greinke to make the list of teams he would decline a trade to (Zack Greinke has a no-trade clause).

In the last two years Zack Greinke has thrown 449.1 innings, won 26 games, and struck out 423 batters with an ERA of 3.14, not to mention he is only 26 years old. 

More impressively, he strikes out 3.99 hitters for every free pass he issues and has thrown nine complete games, three for shutouts. 

His WAR (wins above replacement, which is a metric used to determine the wins that the player creates for their team over a minor leaguer or bench player) is an outstanding 13. 

Which puts him in the company of Roy Halladay (13.9 WAR), CC Sabathia (11.4 WAR), and Cliff Lee (13.7 WAR) over the last two seasons.

Alex Gordon is the owner of a modest .244/.328/.405 line in his three stints in major league ball, and has been positionally abused by the Royals, starting out as a third baseman, then being sent down to the minors to learn first and corner outfield.  Gordon was picked No. 2 overall in 2005, and is 26 years old, just like Greinke. 

The Blue Jays would use Gordon at third base most likely, since their 2010 third baseman was just claimed by the Athletics off waivers.  Despite Gordon’s rather pedestrian line, he is still a solid talent who can improve a lot.

So, what should the Blue Jays offer the Kansas City Royals to bring in the ace and former top draft pick? 

Dayton Moore has said that to consider moving Greinke he would need at least two top 100 prospects and a young major league pitcher.  The Jays have just such top prospects that can be considered “extra.”

If I were the Blue Jays G.M. I would offer Kansas City this package: SP Brandon Morrow, LF Travis Snider and prospects Travis D’Arnaud and Zach Stewart.

Brandon Morrow is a young flame-throwing starting pitcher who opened a lot of eyes last season in Toronto after being acquired from the Seattle Mariners. 

In 2010 Morrow was worth 3.7 WAR, pitched 146.1 innings and struck out an unbelievable 10.95 batters per nine.  His average fastball velocity is 94.6 MPH over his career.  Morrow is 26 years old, just like Greinke and Gordon.

Travis Snider is a young defensively challenged outfielder who, in similar at bats to Gordon, owns a .255/.318/.446 line in the pros.  He is 22 years old, was a first-round pick in 2006, and hit 14 homeruns in 2010 for the Blue Jays. 

The prospects in this deal are both blocked in Toronto by either a better prospect or a surplus at the major league level. 

The first, Travid D’Arnaud is a catcher.  Travis D’Arnaud was acquired from Philadelphia in the Roy Halladay trade and is the seventh overall prospect in the Blue Jays system and a member of the top 100 prospects list. 

He is 21 years old and profiles as a steady defender and big stick (he hit 38 doubles and 13 homeruns in high A ball in 2010).  D’Arnaud is blocked by a solid catching duo on the Major league team of Jose Molina and fellow top prospect J.P. Arencibia.

The second prospect is starting pitcher Zach Stewart, who is 24 years old and almost MLB ready.  He is the third overall prospect in the Blue Jays system and is also amongst the top 100 prospects in all of the minor leagues.  He had a 3.63 ERA at double A ball in 2010 and his fastball touches 93 MPH. 

Stewart is blocked by a full rotation at the MLB level, and the top Blue Jay prospect, starting pitcher Kyle Drabek.

Drabek will be the first Blue Jay minor league pitcher to get a shot at the rotation, so Stewart has some waiting to do in Toronto before his time comes.

If Toronto wants to chase an AL East pennant in 2011, they should strongly consider making a strong offer to Kansas City, such as the one I have proposed here that will net them one of the game’s best pitchers. Zack Greinke, and a player they have their eye on, Alex Gordon.

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Each season, players seemingly come out of nowhere and become catalysts for their team. Whether it is a high-profile rookie, a second-year player, or simply someone who finally got their chance, new stars pop up each and every season.

What follows is a list of the 25 players most likely to breakout in 2011. There are a number of top prospects on the list, as well as some former top prospects who have still not lived up to their high billing.

So as the offseason wheelings and dealings begin to unfold, here are the 25 guys who will make their teams better with a breakout season in 2011.

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It has been a year of excitement and disappointment for the Toronto Blue Jays.

The fans witnessed history at the Rogers Centre when Jose Bautista became the 26th player in Major League history to hit 50 home runs in a season.  Bautista‘s incredible, feel good story has been one of the highlights of the Blue Jays this year, as well as the emergence of Brandon Morrow and the other young starters on the squad. 

It has been disappointing to once again fall to fourth in the American League East, and staying far out of reach of the playoffs.  But even that wasn’t unexpected, in fact the Jays performed much better than expected this year, especially with their surprising capacity for hitting home runs.

Now that the season is tailing down, thoughts towards the future come to the forefront.

Will the pitchers build upon their breakout year to become one of the best rotations in the American League?

Which of the free agents will leave and what kind of draft picks will the Jays receive because of it?

Will the team figure out other ways to score if they can’t repeat their success with the long ball?

First things first, there are certain players who are the core of this team and are therefore signed long term.  Their chances of being traded in the offseason are slim to none.  Players such as Vernon Wells, Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, and Ricky Romero are all signed long term, and form the core which this team is built around.

A good portion of the starting rotation is likely to be back. Shaun Marcum has excelled this year coming off an injury and the trade for Brandon Morrow looked better and better throughout the year.  Those two, along with Brett Cecil, who also had a breakout year, will likely be signed to new contracts if they can continue to progress.  Those three with Romero will form most of the Blue Jays rotation barring injury or a deep regression in form.

The question of the fifth starter is completely open on the other hand.  Various pitchers can fill that slot, but it is tough to say who will be the best fit.  Jesse Litsch is hampered by injury once again, but has the most experience of the candidates.  Marc Rzepczynski has had experience as well but has struggled at the Major League level.

The X-factor in the rotation is Kyle Drabek, who has had two starts so far with the Jays this year, and showed some good control and focus.  He was the Easter League pitcher of the year in Double-A and many have pronounced him ready for joining the Jays.

Jose Bautista will go through arbitration this summer and will stay under Jays control, so the GM Alex Anthopoulos will likely wait to see how he performs next year before deciding whether to offer him a big contract.  He will likely continue to play both right field and third unless a more permanent player can be filled in either slot. 

It is unlikely that the Jays will settle on having Edwin Encarnacion as their regular third baseman, so some infield moves could be a possibility.  There has been some talk about moving Hill to third on the chance that Adeiny Hechavarria is ready next year, in which case either him or Yunel Escobar would play second.

The other infield spot up in the air is first base, with Lyle Overbay becoming a free agent.  Adam Lind has played a few games at first, and catching prospect J.P Arencibia has the potential to play some games both behind the plate and on first.

Speculation has popped up the press lately that Lind and Arencibia aren’t ready yet to take over for Overbay and catcher John Buck, who is also a free agent.

It seems unlikely that they would be re-signed, since Buck has made it clear he wants to play full-time and Overbay is likely looking for a multi-year contract.  This doesn’t seem to create any progress or move the team forward, so those two leaving as free agents still seems the most likely.

Catcher Jose Molina could be kept on to mentor Arencibia on defense and game-calling and continue his work with the pitching staff.

Unless there are some big trades or free agent acquisitions, which seem unlikely, the roster could very well look like this:

Outfield:  Fred Lewis, Vernon Wells, Travis Snider.

Infield:  Jose Bautista, Yunel Escobar, Aaron Hill, Adam Lind.

Catcher: J.P. Arencibia.

On the Bench:  John McDonald, Jose Molina.

Encarnacion is too expensive to be a bench player, so he would either have to be dealt or given third base full-time.  Other bench roles could be filled by Jarret Hoffpauir, DeWayne Wise, and Mike McCoy unless someone from Triple-A or a free agent comes in.

Starting Rotation:  Shaun Marcum, Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, Kyle Drabek.

Kevin Gregg, Scott Downs, and Jason Frasor are all free agents this summer, but since the Jays favour veteran players in the bullpen, there is a chance that at least one of them will be retained.  Of course, the benefits of acquiring draft picks if they leave, as free agents might be too good to pass up.

Bullpen:  Kevin Gregg, Rommie Lewis, David Purcey, Brian Tallet, Jesse Carlson, Shawn Camp, Josh Roenicke.

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When the Blue Jays started the season, it came as a bit of a surprise that the manager Cito Gaston projected that the Jays lineup would live and die by the home run. 

Gaston suggested that his lineup was packed full of potential 20 home run hitters.

“Bautista has a chance to hit maybe 20-25 home runs because he’s done it before,” Gaston said. “Then, of course, you’ve got Hill, you’ve got Lind and Vernon who hit 20 home runs the year before.

“Then you’ve got (Lyle) Overbay you hope can hit you 20 and you have (Edwin) Encarnacion; he might hit 20. “You’re talking about the first six hitters. If (Travis) Snider makes the club, he might do it, too. I think this club right now, the strength is the hitters.”

After all, Adam Lind and Aaron Hill were the only two hitters to surpass the twenty home run mark last year, with 35 and 36 respectively. 

Now that September has arrived, those numbers and projections no longer look so outlandish.  The Blue Jays lead the majors in home runs by a landslide, with 208, the next closest team the Boston Red Sox with 178. 

So how close are those projections so far?

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Travis Snider is one young player who has certainly seen his fair share of ups-and-downs in his limited major league career.  After getting called up from Triple-A for the tailend of the 2008 season, and batting .301 in 24 games, he was likely thinking that he would be playing with the team the next season. 

This was not to be the case, and after struggling through April and May of 2009, he was again returned to Las Vegas.  The disappointment of the demotion seemed to affect him at first, but he soon returned to his old form, and batted .337 through 47 games.  This, of course, earned him another August call-up to the Blue Jays.

After a promising finish to 2009, where his average suffered but he still managed to put up impressive numbers, he would start with the Blue Jays in 2010.  His luck would be short lived though, and after going on a strong hot streak in May, he would injure his right wrist and miss 53 games on the DL. 

Now, once again, Snider is up playing with the Blue Jays.  He has shown flashes of enormous power, as the ball just seems to rocket off his bat, and improved defence in the outfield.  Despite this, Snider is unfortunately struggling once again. 

This is hardly surprising or a cause for worry for the young prospect, as every player goes through growing pains.  But it is showing what Snider will have to work on to improve against major league pitching and take the next step as a hitter.

His strike zone recognition seems to be his biggest problem, as he is too often swinging at balls off the plate.  Which, of course, causes him to strike out at a pretty rapid pace, 50 times in 177 at-bats this year.  The other possible issue could be that opposing pitchers are very aware of certain holes in his approach that he hasn’t fixed yet. 

This isn’t necessarily a problem, as he is still developing, and there are certainly a great many power hitters in the majors who sacrifice average for the sake of doubles and home runs.  Think about Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn, and Mark Reynolds as the prototypical example of that kind of hitter.  Hardly bad company to be in if you are Snider, but with his stats in the minors, it is quite possible that he could be hit for both power and average in the future. 

Snider is a 22 year old who is dedicated to improving at baseball, and like many on the Jays team, he doesn’t just want to be a role player, he wants to be great.  So it helps that the coaches are easing him into the role, slotting him usually into the eighth and ninth positions in the batting order to take some of the pressure off him.

Though with a logjam at the positions, Snider isn’t necessarily guaranteed to be playing every day.  This could prevent him from having the consistent playing time to work through his struggles, but then again, it could be the time he needs to improve without the pressure of the game.  If he can avoid more injury, and finish this year working through his struggles, next year could be a very productive year for Snider.

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The Toronto Blue Jays came into the series against the Boston Red Sox riding a wave of momentum in the clubhouse and enthusiasm in the city. 

Unfortunately, they hit a bit of a wall with two straight losses to their old American League East foes, falling 7-5 and 10-1.  If they can win Thursday night’s game, they still have a chance of recapturing that feeling heading into a three-game series in Anaheim against the Angels.

That would be a welcome boost to a team that has been contemplating the possibility of challenging for a wild card spot and has therefore recently seen a surge of support in Toronto.

While it is never a good thing to lose two games to a team you are trying to catch, there are still some positives that the team can draw from these games.

Shaun Marcum didn’t pitch nearly as badly as his line or the result of the game would suggest in his 10-1 loss.  Marcum’s strength as a pitcher lies in his control. He doesn’t have the pure stuff to dominate and neither is he a fireballer, so where he fools batters is in picking the corners of the strike zone and changing up his pitches. 

The problem was that the umpire was calling such a limited strike zone that Marcum was forced to start throwing it down the middle after walking two and hitting a batter in the first inning. 

Now, since he doesn’t have the power like Buchholz to simply blow it by the batter, and he couldn’t dance around the strike zone due to the patience of the Boston lineup, he became quite hittable. 

It is, of course, a cop-out to blame the umpire, but Marcum has been a very strong pitcher this year and this outing shouldn’t suggest that his season is going to take a turn for the worse.

The expectations began to rise for rookie catcher J.P. Arencibia after he had a spectacular debut against the Tampa Bay Rays, going 4-for-5, with two home runs and a double.  Baseball is a humbling game, though, and he ended up going 0-for-7 in his next two games. 

What stood out from this was not his plate struggles, as that will happen with any rookie, but his willingness to learn from the other Jays catchers and pitchers and his devotion to helping the team.

It seemed that Arencibia pulled a page right out of Jose Molina’s playbook tonight when he caught a pitch from Marcum and immediately rifled it to Lyle Overbay at first.  He had noticed the Boston baserunner straying too far from first and with a very accurate throw almost succeeded in picking him off. 

It is smart plays like that, when successful, that can be game changers and swing the momentum to your team.  If he is to be the future of the Blue Jays, it is good to see that Arencibia can contribute with more than just his bat.

Finally, although Travis Snider hasn’t heated up at the plate like he had before going down with injury, there are signs of his recovery.  He went 2-for-5 with a double, a home run, and three RBI in the first game against Boston.  Then in the second game, although going 0-for-4, he did manage to score the only run for the Jays in the ballgame. 

Snider hit the ball so hard directly at Mike Lowell that it ended up popping out of his glove and Snider reached first on an error.  Each time Travis Snider connects on a pitch, the ball seems to rocket off the bat like it was launched from a gun. Once he becomes more comfortable with big league pitching, that power will quickly convert into doubles and home runs.

The future is on display right now in the Blue Jays lineup, and it is showing a lot of promise.  It is looking like the fans are returning to the Rogers Centre, now that they know what they are cheering for.

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We all know the names of guys like Pujols, Fielder, Howard, Teixeira, and Rodriguez. They’ve been the league leaders in power numbers for most of this past decade.

But now that 2010 is here and a new decade has dawned, who is poised to step into the limelight? Who among the nameless, faceless masses is ready to become the next HR king?

My criteria is as follows:

Player must be no more than 23 years old.
Player must have no more than 500 MLB at bats.
Player must not be a Buffalo Bills fan. I won’t put up with that crap.

So without further ado, here’s your Top 5 Power Hitters under 23:

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In yesterday’s 3-2 win over the Red Sox all the Blue Jays runs came courtesy of Travis Snider . Both of his hits, a double and home run, came off Sox starter Tim Wakefield. However, a couple of hits off Wakefield, a knuckleballer, tells us absolutely nothing about Snider’s development as a hitter this season. Just in the same way a hitless day against Wakefield would tell us nothing. 

But Snider is showing plenty of other signs that the 22-year-old is progressing quite nicely into a professional hitter. A quick look at his batting average and on-base percentage won’t show the progress either, as he’s hitting only .232 with a .317 on-base percentage, compared to last year’s .241/.328.

Where then are the signs coming from? To find them we’ll have to travel a little farther down his stats page on FanGraphs .

Right off the bat the only part of his triple-slash line that has increased this year compared to ’09 is his slugging percentage. A rise in slugging coupled with a slight decline in batting average is a clear indicator that Snider has upped his power output. Indeed, his ISO has risen to .223, up from .178 a season ago, and it’s better than his mark from 2008 as well. This shouldn’t be a surprise, as Travis showed above average power in the minors but it’s good to see it showing up in the show.

Even more promising than that, his plate discipline is coming along too. After striking out in 31.5 percent of his at-bats in ’08, that number increased to 32.4 percent last year. This year, though, we’ve seen Snider push it in the other direction, as he currently has just a 25-percent strikeout rate. While unprecedented in the majors he did have a strikeout rate around 26 percent in 60 games at the Triple-A level.

His walk rate has also increased slightly this season, up to 11.1 percent of his plate appearances. Not as drastic as his jump from 6.3 percent in ’08 to 10.5 percent in ’09, but clearly showing no signs of regression. His establishing of an above-average walk rate at such a young age is an excellent development and a sustainable skill moving forward.

Moving further down his FanGraphs’s page we get a better picture of how Snider is walking more and striking out less. First off, Snider is swinging at less pitches outside the strike zone than seasons past. He’s offered at 23.8 percent of pitches outside the zone, down from 33.3 and 27.1 in ’08 and ’09. He’s begun to swing at more pitches inside the zone at the same time, up to 74.5 percent from last year’s 71.8, while swinging less overall.

And when he does decide to bring the bat around he is making more contact as a whole, whether it be out of or inside the strike zone. His contact rate in 2010 has increased 3.6 percent from last season to 74.9 percent. His outside contact is up 5.6 percent to 52.6 and his inside swing percentage has climbed to 83.6 percent over 2009’s 81.7.

This is a big step for Snider, as he is giving every indication of improved knowledge of the strike zone. At the same time, his increase in contact both in and out of the zone shows us he is learning more about himself in terms of what he can hit and what he needs to layoff. He isn’t just being more patient for the sake of being more patient, which would actually be a step in the wrong direction.

Perhaps quickly becoming the most overused excuse for struggling hitters is pointing out a player’s BABIP and how it almost has to improve from where it currently stands. Snider’s BABIP currently sits at .266, and yes here it comes, it’s is almost certain to increase back closer to his career mark of .317.

But wait, not just because it has to, Snider has never, at any level of his career, had a BABIP below .316. Even in 2008 at Double-A when he hit .262 his BABIP was still .333.

There’s already evidence of this, after posting a BABIP of just .157 in April, his mark so far for May is .464. And the hits are coming too, he’s collected 15 in 41 at-bats in May after an ugly 11 hits in 71 at-bats last month.  

The hardest part about looking over Snider’s numbers it that he is so young we don’t know if this season’s small sample size is indicative of a new level of performance or if there will be regression to his past major league performance. And of course his past major league experience is just 356 plate appearances anyways so we can’t draw much conclusion from that either.

But this is a player who performed extremely well in the minors at a young age for every level he was at. Couple his minor league track record with his steady progression as a hitter in the show and you’ve got plenty of reasons to suspect the improvements will continue.

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As I write this, my beloved Toronto Blue Jays are sitting third in the AL East (fourth overall in the AL) with an impressive early record of 16-13. This places us a mere four games behind the Yankees, for the Wild Card spot.

It’s also May 6.

Have a cup of coffee, rummy.

First allow me to preface the remaining article with the following: You will be hard pressed to find a more devoted Blue Jay fan than I. However, I’m also a strict realist who deals in honest, factual reasoning and absolutely does not suffer fools. I’m a shotgun diplomat who leaves the platitudes for the horde of Pavlov’s Dogs that seem to inhabit the sporting news blogosphere.

As for the Jays, sometimes you just need to tell your girlfriend “yes honey, you do look fat in that dress.”

At first glance a 16-13 record looks fairly impressive for a team that was supposed to be a bottom feeder this year. However, when you dig a little deeper you’ll notice that it just isn’t the case.

We’ve played four of nine series’ against teams with winning records last year, Boston, Los Angeles, Tampa, and Texas.  Our record stands at 3-9 in those games, including 1-6 against AL East teams

We have yet to play New York, Detroit, Minnesota, or Seattle and we still have 16 games left to play against Tampa and Boston.  That leaves 99 games left against winning teams from ’09—not including 12 games against the Rockies, Giants, Cards and Phillies, all winning teams from the NL. 

At our current pace we are looking at a record of 33-66 against the winning teams in the AL.  Lets say we run just over .500 during Inter-league games at 8-7, that leaves us at 41-73. 

48 games left to play against the worst of the AL.

Lets be optimistic here and say we have a .700 record against these teams and end up 34-14.  That gives us a record of 75-87.

Coincidentally, that was our record last year. Good enough for 4th in the AL East, a full 28 games back of New York.

Now for some sobering reality about our roster:

Alex Gonzales’ best year offensively was in 2004 with the Marlins when he hit .232/23/79.

To illustrate how much of an anomaly that is, his career per season numbers are .248/10/45.  Of his eleven other seasons, only in three of them did he eclipse 10 home runs and 55 RBI. His pace so far projects to .278/45/123. Needless to say you can cut those power numbers in half and knock off 30 average points. More than expected yes, but Alex Rodriguez, he is not.

John Buck is hitting very well of late (though his avg/OBP are putrid as expected). 

However, in four of his six years in Kansas City, when he was the clear starter, Buck had never hit more than 18 HR or 50 RBI.  His current pace of 27/76 (based on 135 games) simply cannot be sustained.

As advertised, Brandon Morrow has been a strikeout machine. 

But with a K:BB ratio of 10:5, we can expect his ERA to stay at around 5.00. Control is a skill that is slow to develop and expecting Morrow to “figure it out” and start shutting teams down in the next couple of weeks, or even months, just isn’t reasonable. Also, as long as he’s averaging five innings per start, he’s going to decimate the arms in our bullpen.

Now lets quickly discuss Vernon Wells. 

He’s also on pace for a 45/120 season although at a significantly higher average than Alex Gonzalez. Also just like A-Gon, he will not maintain that pace.

That’s not a bad thing either.

His bloated contract puts him squarely in the cross hairs of both media and fans alike. 

However, over the course of his career Vernon has proven to be a very respectable .280/25/90 hitter to go along with great defense in center field. I think we need to stop blaming him for the contract J.P. Ricciardi signed him to and realize that he just isn’t the .310/35/115 guy we all want him to be. 

Jays fans need get off the road to Jonestown this season. 

We are not winning any divisions or wild cards. We are, as expected, a middling team just trying to stay relevant in the cutthroat A.L. East.

Lets just sit back and enjoy the emergence of some great young talent like Brett Cecil, Ricky Romero, and Travis Snider. I suspect that fairly soon Brett Wallace will be here and we should catch a glimpse of J.P. Arencibia and Kyle Drabek come September.

Now take a cold shower and get ready for more kool-aid. 

NHL offseason starts in July!

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