Kuzul

Coming into the 2010 season, I was sure of three things:

1. The Milwaukee Brewers would improve their record from last season.
2. Trevor Hoffman would reach 600 saves.
3. Ken Macha would eventually be fired as manager.

This season, I’m 0-3, but I’ve got a shot at No. 3 still going down.

Trevor Hoffman, who totaled 34 saves against just three blown last season, has five blown already. He’s been replaced by rookie John Axford, who’s really come on strong for the Brewers.

Hoffman sits in the bullpen after his garbage start to the season, currently sporting a 2-4 record, five saves, a 7.26 ERA, and just 20 strikeouts.

But Axford is learning plenty from the all-time saves leader and long-time Padres closer.

“Ax-Man” has leaned on Hoffman for information about batters, strategies on the mound, and general know-how compiled over 17 years in the bigs.

For Axford, early success has been huge. He’s 15/16 in save opportunities, with his first blown save coming against the Washington Nationals today.

But the oh-so visible banner over the Miller Park outfield for Hoffman’s countdown to 600 saves stands at 596.

Will it ever reveal 600?

I really don’t think so. And it’s not a knock against Hoffman. It’s a reflection of how well Axford has pitched since being named the primary closer. 

I wrote about how the countdown in the outfield might mess with Hoffman’s good mojo , but who would have thought he’d fail to reach just 10 saves after last year? I certainly didn’t.

Hoffman may have a heartbreaking end to his career, after being among the best at his craft ever, yet falling just short of a tremendous milestone.

As for my hope that oft-sleepy manager Ken Macha would be fired before too long: That hasn’t gone so well. Macha’s seen support all around, from both GM Doug Melvin and Owner Mark Attanasio, but the fans are pleading for his release. 

Replace him with hitting coach Dale Sveum or bench coach Willie Randolph, both who connect well with the players. Macha’s careful/conservative approach has stunted the speed game of Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart, and Carlos Gomez, to name a few.

Finally, I turn to Milwaukee’s pitching staff.

This is really more of a 50/50. 

For the most part, besides down years by Hawkins and Hoffman, the Brewers bullpen has been a tremendous bright spot. They have perhaps found a long-term solution in Axford at closer, Kameron Loe in the eighth, and Chris Capuano, who has worked strong innings since his return from Tommy John surgery.

However, with the good you must take the bad.

The Brewers sucked the poison from their veins by finally, nay, mercifully releasing Jeff Suppan, but the pitching staff as a whole, aside from Gallardo, has been a black eye.

Starters Randy Wolf and Doug Davis have not lived up to the expectations showered on them after their offseason signings. Project lefty Manny Parra has struggled to keep a spot in the rotation, while inconsistent Chris Narveson picks up his duties.

All in all, 80 wins would be a blessing in Milwaukee, as their record stands at 45-53.

For the Milwaukee Brewers to make any ground in the NL Central, the starting pitching must drastically improve over the second half.

But will it?

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2010 has not gone at all like the Milwaukee Brewers and their fans were hoping for. Several offseason free agent pitching signings gave hope to a staff that ranked as one of the worst in baseball in 2009.

Unfortunately, the pitching has been only slightly better, and the Brewers are 33-40, only good enough for a distant third place in the NL Central.

On a positive note, the Brewers have won five in a row, and the starting pitching seems to be producing the way GM Doug Melvin had expected since being very active over the winter.

However, it still seems unlikely that the Brewers will seriously challenge for the division or even the wild card spot this season.

Although Brewers’ owner Mark Attanasio recently told Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports that he doesn’t anticipate being a seller at this year’s trade deadline, it is something that Attanasio, Melvin, and the rest of the Brewers brass needs to think long and hard about.

The most obvious trade candidates are first baseman Prince Fielder and outfielder Corey Hart. Each is under team control until after the 2011 season, but both could be traded to help the pitching staff even more.

While Fielder’s numbers are down this year, he has caught fire recently and seems to be on his way to another 30-plus home run season.

Most, including Melvin, feel that the best time to trade Fielder would be after this season, but that could all change if a team is willing to offer a good enough package in return.

Hart may be the most likely player to be traded before the July 31 deadline. After a year-and-a-half of sub-par play, Hart is having a career year in 2010.

He’s hitting .272, with 18 home runs and 56 RBI. Those numbers are already significantly better than the ones he posted in 2009. The Braves, Mariners, and Giants seem to be the most likely teams to acquire Hart. 

Rumors circulated earlier in the season that Melvin was already interested in shopping newly-signed Randy Wolf.

After a rough start, Wolf has pitched seven innings in his last two starts and seems to be coming into the form he showed with the Dodgers and Phillies.

Wolf signed a three-year, $29.75 million contract in the winter, so it’s hard to imagine a team willing to take on that much salary. The best Brewers fans can hope for is Wolf continues to pitch like he has recently, and Melvin may be able to find a taker in the offseason.

Trevor Hoffman is a very interesting case. The all-time saves leader is off to the worst start of his career. He has blown five save opportunities in 2010, already more than all of 2009. After being removed from the closer role, he has made six straight scoreless appearances. 

Hoffman is a free agent after this season, so a playoff contender could inquire about him if the price is right and he continues to record outs and not give up home runs.

The Brewers seem to have already moved on with John Axford. Any number of teams could deal for Hoffman, and after Hart, he seems the most likely player that could be dealt before the deadline. 

Dave Bush is a darkhorse to be sent packing by the Brewers. Doug Davis is close to returning from the disabled list, and Bush could be the odd man out.

Three of his last four starts have been quality starts, and he picked up his third win of the season Friday night against the Mariners.

Bush is a free agent at the end of the season, but he could become a valuable lower-rotation starter or long-man out of the bullpen for a contender. He has playoff experience, and he won the only game for the Brewers in the 2008 playoffs.

The Brewers could shock all of baseball and become buyers at the deadline, but they would have to catch a major hot streak, and that isn’t likely to happen. They seem destined to hover around .500 all season long. 

The Brewers still have 2011 in which they could seriously compete for the playoffs with Prince Fielder still on the team. Expect Fielder to finish 2010 with Milwaukee, but there are no guarantees for 2011.

The Brewers can start building towards a contender in 2011 by trading Hart and Hoffman. They may not be the most popular moves right now, but if it makes the Brewers a winner in 2011, it will be worth it.

To read more by Jesse Motiff, click here . 

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Sex and the City 2 and Jonah Hex have not been the only flops this summer. Fantasy baseball has had its fair share as well.  

We are more than two months into the 2010 baseball season, so its not too early to label certain superstars as busts. Sure, they could turn things around. They could play phenomenally from here on out and salvage their seasons, but right now they are giving their fantasy owners ulcers every time they go 0-for-4, blow a save, or get torched for seven runs in four innings.   

Here are the ten biggest busts in fantasy baseball!

Jason Bay, New York Mets

The Mets needed to keep up with the Yankees in the big-ticket item department, plus they needed outfield pop because they knew Carlos Beltran was going to miss the first half of the season. So they inked Bay, who had hit 30-plus homers and driven in 100-plus runs in four of the last five seasons. Smart move, right?

Wrong. Even though Bay has dealt with intense media scrutiny before (in Boston) and hitting in a pitcher’s ballpark (in Pittsburgh) during his career, he has been swinging like a lost soul all season. 

With only four homers and 29 RBI at this point, his chances of another 30-HR, 100-RBI campaign are slimmer than a Slim Jim.  At least Bay has been kind enough to steal (10 SB) and walk (.378 OBP) in lieu of hitting homers.    

Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs

The knock on Ramirez with fantasy owners has always been that he is injury-prone.  Getting 162 games out of him is harder than getting Mark Teixeira to take a day off. But at least when Ramirez was on the field he was as productive as any third baseman around, capable of hitting .300 with 30 homers and 100 RBI when 100 percent healthy.

Now Ramirez is injured AND hitting .162. He has actually increased his fantasy value by going on the disabled list. Here is a stat that should make you feel warm and fuzzy about him — in 47 games, Ramirez has been 0-for-3, 0-for-4, or 0-for-5 a grand total of 18 times. He also went 0-for-6 once, too. 

Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers

Fantasy owners knew that sooner or later “Father Time” was going to throw Hoffman a curve of his own. What we didn’t know was that the curve was going to drop off the table like Barry Zito’s used to during his Oakland glory days.

Hoffman has gone from premier closer to premier failure in record time. After staving off old age with 37 saves and a 1.83 ERA in 2009, he has five saves, five blown saves, and a 9.00 ERA. He is now used in as many crucial late-game situations as Oliver Perez.

Chad Qualls, Arizona Diamondbacks

You know you are having trouble when Aaron Heilman is picked to save games over you.  Qualls made the transition from setup man to closer late last year and did quite well, but it looks like he was a one-hit wonder like The Baja Men.  

Qualls has an 8.87 ERA, a 2.27 WHIP, and more people after him than BP. He could very well get his closer job back eventually if he straightens out and Heilman falls to pieces, but for now it is nothing but non-save situations for him in the near future. 

Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals

Greinke has gone from Cy Young to Anthony Young in less than one year. The poor guy had to post a 2.16 ERA last season just to win 16 games, so you knew there would be trouble for his win-loss record if he had the nerve to have a mortal 3.94 ERA.    

No run support, no defense, no miracles.  That has translated into a 2-8 record for Greinke, despite ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts numbers that should get him a winning record.  Figure this out — Chicago White Sox starter Freddy Garcia has a much worse ERA and WHIP, yet he is 8-3.

Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers

Fantasy baseball’s largest vegetarian is eating more lettuce than driving in runs these days. His 27 RBI do not even rank him in the top 100 in the category as he trails lightweights like Yuniesky Betancourt, Juan Uribe, and Clint Barmes.  Jonny Gomes has almost driven in twice as many runs. 

Yes, Jonny Gomes.  

Is it that Corey Hart keeps knocking in all of the runners on base before Fielder comes to bat, leaving the porky power hitter with no RBI opportunities? No, Fielder has just not come up as huge as he did in 2009 when he racked up 141 ribbies. An RBI streak could be on the way knowing him, but for now Fielder is putting up the kind of stats Gaby Sanchez owners would be happy with, not Fielder owners.    

Gordon Beckham, Chicago White Sox

Changing positions can sometimes be a bigger distraction than having Lady Gaga sitting in the stands.  hat seems to be the case with Beckham, who looked destined to win several batting titles throughout his career, but now will be lucky to stay in the majors throughout the year.   

The former first-rounder has been sidelined by a sophomore slump that has kept him around the Mendoza line all season long. Moving from third base to second base seems like it has done more harm for his bat than good for his glove. Fantasy owners can only hope that a batting coach, family friend, or rotisserie god from above can solve the Beckham riddle and get him back pasting line drives again.   

Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers

This was supposed to be the season Kinsler challenged Chase Utley to be the most valuable second baseman in fantasy baseball. But while Utley has left the door open for Kinsler to take the title, Kinsler has fumbled it worse than Adrian Peterson would.

Kinsler, coming off a 31HR/31SB superstar season, has one homer and six steals so far.  Some of this has to do with his early season injuries and some of this has to do with him not hitting for power and not attempting to steal much. Kinsler might not still be 100 percent healthy, and he might be still shaking off some spring rust, but it certainly would be nice if his name started appearing more often in the HR and SB sections of the Texas boxscores.  

Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays     

Here is another American League second baseman who went from being the next Jeff Kent to being the next Jeff Keppinger. Hill burst onto the fantasy scene last year with 35 homers, 108 RBI, and 103 runs. He was a feel good, Lifetime movie worthy story because of how he came back from a serious concussion that ruined his 2007 season.  

And now Hill is hitting .187.  

The power stroke is still kinda there (ten homers) and Hill has been kinda hitting better this month (.211 average in June). Still, .187 is .187. That will single handedly ruin a fantasy team’s batting average. You need a couple Joe Mauers in your lineup to even Hill’s average out. And you cannot rely on Hill’s track record to think he will bounce back because he has only had one great season in five-plus years.  

 

Nate McLouth, Atlanta Braves

Remember when Pittsburgh Pirates fans were rioting in the streets when McLouth was traded to Atlanta in the middle of last season?  You would have thought Sidney Crosby had been dealt to the Los Angeles Kings for a bunch of draft picks and pucks with the way people reacted.  

McLouth has hit like someone in serious need of glasses. He has a .176 batting average, and before he can turn things around and climb towards the .200 plateau, he first has to get off the disabled list. He is suffering from post-concussion symptoms after an outfield collision.  

McLouth is a 20-HR/20-SB guy when his mind and body are right.  The problem is we don’t know when both will be right again.  It may not be until 2011 (or ever) the way things are going.

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On May 23, 2010 against the Minnesota Twins, Trevor Hoffman pitched game No. 1,000 for his career, coming on during the eighth inning in a 4-3 victory. He became the 14th player in major league history to accomplish this.

We then went back to our daily routines.

For a sport so focused on the milestone stats, it’s interesting to see this one completely slip by. We have 500 home runs, 3,000 hits, 300 wins, and others. Yet, any milestone for games played is not really looked at as any accomplishment. It’s a testament to little more than longevity, right?

Well, let’s take a look.

Of the previous 13 to play in 1,000 games, three are in the Hall of Fame: Dennis Eckersley, Hoyt Wilhelm, and Goose Gossage. The other 10 feature names you’d expect and names you likely have forgotten.

Topping the list is, of course, Jesse Orosco with 1,252. Following are Mike Stanton (1,178), John Franco (1,119), Eckersley (1,071), Wilhelm (1,070), Dan Plesac (1,064), Mike Timlin (1,058), Kent Tekulve (1,050), Jose Mesa and Lee Smith (1,022), Roberto Hernandez (1,010), Michael Jackson (1,005), Gossage (1,002), and now Hoffman.

The list is a tangled web of obvious hall of famers, those that have gotten close (Smith), those who did not get close (Plesac and others), and those who won’t have a chance at it (Mesa).

However, the Hall of Fame has already established how valuable this stat is: it isn’t. Just recently, Orosco, Plesac, and Jackson could not crack the 5 percent threshold. Neither could Tekulve despite a sub-3.00 ERA.

Interestingly enough though, many on this list are recent additions, and have just recently retired. Is this looking to be a continuing development? Will there be more pitchers crossing the mark who aren’t necessarily good, just reliable?

Looking beyond the hall of fame, and instead just looking at the number, it’s certainly possible. After all, Orosco pitched in 65 games in his final major league season despite an ERA over 7.50. So perhaps Hoffman’s games pitched isn’t a symbol of anything but luck and health.

Just about all of those pitchers above were still pitching 60 games when they hit 40, so maybe it means nothing. At the same time, maybe it’s an under-appriciated number, one that shows consistency and reliability, something that is needed more than anything in a bullpen, especially with how dynamic they are.

So, what does the mark mean to you? Sheer luck? Solid pitching? Nothing at all?

In my case, I think it shows a model of consistently good, though not necessarily great, pitching. It’s not a number on the same caliber as the others I noted earlier, far from it, but it can be a second-tier stat that is nice to achieve. After all, everyone but Mesa has a career sub-4.00 ERA, and all pitched until at least 39, so there is some health and luck involved as well.

What does it mean to you though? Something to think about. There won’t be 3,000 hits, 500 home runs, or 300 wins for a while, so let’s enjoy this accomplishment by Trevor Hoffman, even if it means little.

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It has been a while since I’ve written anything in this space. The reason for that is two-fold.

First, I am the proud parent to a new baby boy (he’s a month old today, as a matter of fact)! Second, the team hasn’t exactly given me much in the way of motivation to sit down and really put forth any concerted effort.

To be fair, in all reality it is the former that has kept me away more than the latter. I can write about my favorite team in the dead of winter when they’re not even playing with no issue. Certainly I have had plenty on my mind during these recent lean days but diapers/bottles/baths/bonding/etc. really chew up my “free” time.

I was going to sit down and write a free-form rant (I even advertised it on my blog’s Twitter account—twitter.com/BrewerNation), but I got busy and calmed down while caring for my little boy that can’t care for himself yet.

That’s kind of a metaphor for the 2010 Milwaukee Brewers so far this year.

I know that the team will tell you that they are maturing and how they don’t want to be seen as the team that other teams love to beat, but if you ask me all they’ve accomplished by toning down their youthful exuberance is rip their own heart out.

They no longer seem to be having fun while playing a fun game. They no longer seem to be enjoying their days at the ballpark which is an enjoyable place. They no longer seem to have that swagger that carried them to a 90-72 record and a postseason playoff berth WAY back in 2008.

Yeah…2008. Remember when CC Sabathia couldn’t be stopped and this team was having fun all summer long, culminating in the picture above? It doesn’t seem that long ago when you think about it outside of sports, but in Major League Baseball so much can change in two short years.

I could list things like that they’ve had three managers since then, or that they’ve burned through four pitching coaches, but the main thing that’s changed from 2008 to 2010 isn’t tangible like that.

It’s the fun.

Let me break it down to you this way. They say that a group takes on the personality and characteristics of its leader. But has there ever been a seemingly more mismatched pairing than Ken Macha and the majority of this Brewers roster?

Macha is admittedly old school. Don’t get me wrong, I like a lot about old school baseball. I like (most of) the unwritten rules. I like drilling a guy for showing up the game. I like a good old-fashioned bench-clearing brawl.

The players, and perhaps it’s mostly a by-product of their median age, are decidedly new school in a lot a ways. The earthquake celebration against San Francisco, Braun and Fielder’s boxing celebration after home runs, the untucking of their jerseys after victories…it all is about having fun.

They never were trying to show anybody up. They were simply trying to enjoy each other and each other’s successes on the field.

But apparently somebody got in the ears of the clubhouse leaders over the off-season and planted a distinctive “knock it off” somewhere in there.

Sure, Braun and Fielder still celebrate home runs and now Fielder and McGehee have even developed a little foot shake routine. And yes, if they were still untucking their jerseys with a 16-26 record, it might seem a touch out of place.

My argument, though, is that once this team stopped having fun this team stopped playing loose. They’ve been uptight, trying to be too perfect (I’m looking at you, pitching staff) and generally almost seem to be playing scared.

Not that they’re afraid of the ball or anything, but they’ve got “what’s going to go wrong tonight?” syndrome.

When you arrive at the ballpark and expect to lose, you generally lose. I’m not saying that any players have told me that they feel this way, or that I’ve heard any of them say it or even imply it. It’s just my feeling as a very interested observer.

Maybe getting Trevor Hoffman fixed will be the spark that this team needs. It can’t be easy when the innings are getting late and you don’t have at least a four-run lead. Hoffman was so maddeningly inconsistent that you almost had to assume failure and be pleasantly surprised if he came through.

Maybe getting healthy will provide the boost that this team needs. When your Opening Day center fielder and right fielder have missed time and 40 percent of your starting rotation has been replaced due to injury or ineffectiveness and your setup man is on the DL and now your starting catcher will miss at least two weeks…

Then again, maybe simply getting a few wins will be the ointment that heals the wounds of so many losses.

If you win, maybe you loosen up. If you loosen up, maybe you win some more. If you win some more, maybe you stay loose and go on a run.

So the question becomes: How do you win to start that chain of probabilities?

My answer to that question sounds simple. In fact, it sounds so simple that one might wonder why it isn’t already happening. It sounds so simple that one might question why it was ever abandoned in the first place.

That answer to the Milwaukee Brewers? Find a way to enjoy the game again.

Untuck those jerseys, watch a few home runs a little too long, pump your fist when you strike out a guy in a key situation on defense, hoot and holler and get the other guy’s dander up, put a target on your back again if you must.

In short…just relax and be yourselves.

You might find out that it’s what’s been missing this whole time.

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Trevor Hoffman is the all time leader in saves with 596 (as of May 21, 2010) in 18 seasons. 

After playing for the San Diego Padres for a long time, Hoffman was acquired by the Milwaukee Brewers before the 2009 season.

In 2009, Hoffman excelled as a closer with the second lowest season ERA of his career with 1.83—saving 37 games to add to his resume. It seemed like this guy was a machine, and his career would never end.

But Hoffman’s 2010 season has been miserable.

As a quarter of the season is over, Trevor’s ERA has ballooned up to 13.15 to tag along with three losses. His record last year for the entire season contained only two losses (and no, he does not have a reasonable amount of saves with five).

Hoffman is at the age of 42. He is aging—and too quickly.

Hoffman is now testing the Brewers patience. 

How long can the Brewers stick with Trevor as a closer—or even keep him on the roster?

Can this be the final year for No. 51?

If it is, it was once heck of a career. 

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Trevor Hoffman has now blown more saves than he did all of last year, but yesterday was the worst of the worst.

Coming in to protect a three-run lead, Hoffman could not even record an out. He looked like he was throwing batting practice to the Cincinnati Reds in the 5-4 loss.

Hoffman is having his worst season yet and a change has to be made.

With veteran LaTroy Hawkins on the DL, one has to wonder to whom manager Ken Macha will turn now that Hoffman is out of the picture.

Carlos Villanueva seems like the ideal candidate since the Brewers’ other options, like Todd Coffey and Mitch Stetter, are not having good seasons so far.

Macha needs to make the change to save his job. If he brings Hoffman out one more time to save the game, he might get fired on the spot.

Hoffman spoiled a gem pitched by rookie Marco Estrada, in relief of Manny Parra.

As Tom Haurdicourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel suggests, Hoffman needs to go to Macha’s office and suggest he be removed from the closer’s role. If you are done or struggling, you should admit it and make the call yourself to make the manager feel better.

It’s tough telling the all-time saves leader that he’s officially done, but the guy is 42 years old and must say goodbye to his career as a closer. It’s a shame that this is what it has come down to, considering how brilliant he was last year (1.83 ERA), but a change has to be made.

With his atrocious ERA this year, no manager would have confidence running Hoffman out there for every save opportunity.

Villanueva needs to get the next save opportunity, whenever that may be, considering how bad the team is playing right now.

Is it too early to throw in the towel on the Milwaukee Brewers? Maybe. But this is an awful ball club right now and there is no hope in sight.

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I am expecting a lot of opposition to this article, but it needs to be said: The Milwaukee Brewers need a new closer.

Trevor Hoffman, 42, has been the Brewers’ closer since last year, and it’s looking like this could and should be his final stop.

The all-time saves leader has 596 saves in his 18-year career, but is struggling to lock down just four more for a career total of 600.

Last season, Hoffman was solid, sporting a 3-2 record with an ERA of 1.83 and 37 saves while only blowing four all season. As a Brewer fan, I was expecting the same from one of the best closers of all time.

So far my wish has been denied.

In 14 appearances this season, Hoffman sports a 1-3 record with an ugly ERA of 13.15 and five of 10 saves converted. That ERA is unacceptable at any level, let alone for a professional closer.

With five blown saves, he has blown more saves in 14 appearances than he did all last season. That’s five extra wins the Brewers could have. Instead of being a 15-24 team, they’d be a 20-19 team, and only three games back in the division. 

Hoffman’s low fastball velocity is even lower, and his change-up is hanging in the zone way too much. I’ll give him the fact that two of his game-losing/tying home runs have been golfed out of the park, but when you’re the all-time saves leader and your team can’t count on you to save a win, it’s time to hang it up.

I hate to be the one that talks bad of Trevor Hoffman, but I can’t stand watching him pitch because it’s easy to see he doesn’t have it anymore. I am all in favor of him getting his 600th save in a Brewers uniform, but what about after that?

If it were up to me, I would trot him out there every now and then to try to get 600, and if he can’t, let him go. We have a closer-in-the-making in Triple-A named Zach Braddock, unlike Hoffman, he can really bring the heat. Braddock is 0-0 with a 4.80 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 15 innings pitched. His ERA inflated after one bad outing.His fastball is clocked at mid to upper 90’s.

Regardless of the way Trevor finishes, I think he will retire after this year, and we will hand the ball over to the closer of the future.

It pains me to see my beloved Brewers get a lead and Hoffman come in and blow the whole thing. It’s time to look towards the future.

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