Kuzul

Carl Crawford, Cliff Lee and Jayson Werth have grabbed all the headlines with their lucrative nine-figure contracts, but many of this off-seasons free agents remain unsigned.

For some players like Adrian Beltre and Rafael Soriano, their big day is a foregone conclusion, but others won’t be so lucky. Whether due to age or declining skills, many players may have to wait until Spring Training to sign a contract, that is, if they can find work.

With that in mind, let’s examine 15 players who could have to wait until March before finding a new home for the season.

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2010 was a moderate success for the Atlanta Braves. However, with retirement, free agency and trades, there’s always the question of who will or will not be back playing for Atlanta in 2011.

We’ll take a look at free agents, potential retirees and trade bait.

We expect that core players like Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, Brian McCann, Jason Heyward and Chipper Jones will be back because there’s no logical reason why they wouldn’t be.

The bullpen was very solid, but it’s not out of the question to see one or more of them packaged in a deal for an outfielder. This means that Craig Kimbrel, Mike Dunn, Jonny Venters, Peter Moylan and Eric O’Flaherty should expect to be back. 

Backup catcher David Ross signed an extension mid-season for a reason.

Up-and-comers like Kris Medlen (after he returns from Tommy John surgery), Mike Minor, Brandon Beachy and Freddie Freeman may or may not spend the entire 2011 season in the majors with Atlanta, but if not they’ll be between the big club and Gwinnett, unless packaged in a deal for another outfield bat.

So, who does that leave. . .

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Not too long ago, the Braves were basking in the glory of a fairly sizable advantage in the National League East.

Now, on September 5, the boys from Atlanta are feeling the breath of the surging Phillies that are nipping at their heels at only a single game back.

But, with the rosters already expanded and all roles assigned, how should the Atlanta Braves approach the 2010 season’s final 25 games?

Before we fall into the fast-filling, “JUMP OFF THE EFFIN’ BANDWAGON, THIS SHIP IS SINKING FASTER THAN MARK HAMILL’s CAREER AFTER STAR WARS” abyss, we have to remember these two things:

1. The Braves ARE, in fact, in first place.
2. This team is not the same version of the 2010 Atlanta Braves that lost nine games in a row back in late April.

Not even close to being the same team.

This is a Braves team that has become synonymous with the word “comeback” over the past couple months.

A team known league-wide for the showmanship of the likes of Conrad, McCann, and Heyward.

Granted, there is neither a “grizzled” presence from Chipper Jones in the everyday lineup nor a primed-for-a-red-hot-month Troy Glaus to re-energize this “laggy” version of the team.

But, this has proven to be a group resilient enough, even without those guys, to make a phoenix proud. 

It’s frightening to see the defending NL Champs so close, there’s no denying that, and a 2-3 September facing par-to-subpar teams in the Mets and Phillies (as the Phillies have gone 4-1) isn’t going to do much to inspire the troops.

But, with series coming up against Pittsburgh, a slumping St. Louis team (3-9 over their past 12), and the pesky Nats (as the Phillies take on Florida, New York, and Florida again)—teams they’ve gone 5-1, 0-4 (during the April lull), and 6-6 against—you have to be at least a little hopeful for a 6-4 or 7-3 stretch over the next week-plus.

It’s not a comfortable position to be in, but there’s always a little drama in September when you don’t have some combination of Glavine, Maddux, or Smoltz in your rotation.

But, the team is No. 3 in team batting average and homers in the NL over the past 30 days, as well as No. 2 in OBP, and No. 2 in baseball (trailing only the Yankees) in runs scored.

Granted, 19-11 isn’t indicative of those statistics, but there isn’t any reason to think that the Braves can’t figure out a way to match up those offensive numbers with what has been one of the better staffs in the game (including a run that has yielded a 3.22 ERA over their past 30 contests). 

It’s going to be a tight, back-and-forth race to the finish in the East, but the Braves are still good enough to finish their quest to earn their first playoff berth since 2005.

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The Atlanta Braves should think twice before they make a move that will weaken their chances at winning a second World Series title.

While nothing has happened yet, the stars are certainly aligned for Mr. May, Troy Glaus, to replace All-Star Omar Infante in the lineup at third base, which would bump Martin Prado back to second base.

Since Atlanta acquired first baseman Derrek Lee from the Chicago Cubs, Glaus has rested his ailing knees and returned to play three games for the Gwinnett Braves at the hot corner this week.

During those three games, May’s NL Player of the Month has been raking at the plate, racking up two home runs, seven RBI’s, and five hits in 10 at-bats at the Triple-A level.

However, while those numbers and Glaus’ improving health may impress GM Frank Wren and manager Bobby Cox enough for them to make him the starting third baseman in place of the injured Chipper Jones, it’s a bad move.

And I’m not saying that merely based on his .174 batting average and two home runs over the last 46 games.

Glaus should not re-enter the daily lineup because Atlanta cannot afford to take super utility man Omar Infante out of the daily lineup.

According to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Infante has a .381 batting average in 27 consecutive starts and has shown some uncharacteristic power recently, hitting five home runs in his last 17 games.

Additionally, Infante has been consistently good in 2010, unlike Glaus, posting a .365 batting average in 65 games since June 1, which would put him in contention for the batting title if he had enough at-bats to be eligible.

Defensively, Infante has been solid, committing only 12 errors despite lining up at five different positions for the 2010 Braves.

Most importantly, Infante has committed only four errors in 99 chances at second base, his current position, this season.

As for Glaus’ fielding skills, both he and Prado have the same career fielding percentage at third base (.952), but you would have to think that the younger Prado would be more mobile and agile than Glaus and his ailing knees.

Granted, the Braves’ bench is significantly weaker without Infante and losing the reliable guy who can play almost anywhere should a starter go down with an injury hurts the bench.

However, Atlanta’s subs are still strong, boasting the likes of Melky Cabrera, Eric Hinske, David Ross, and the team’s best clutch hitter in Brooks Conrad.

In addition to those guys, Glaus would provide a power bat off the bench and could serve as the designated hitter should the Braves advance to the World Series.

As far as the rest of the season is concerned, Atlanta hopes that Glaus will once again prove his doubters wrong by playing good defense at third base and being a key bat in the Braves’ lineup down the stretch in September and potentially October.

Unfortunately for Atlanta, hope should be a last resort in a pennant race.

If the Braves want to hold off the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East race, they need to go with the best guys they have—a strategy that finds Omar Infante in the everyday lineup and Troy Glaus on the bench.

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Over the season, I’ve had to hear the media lament over key injuries. Surprisingly, when the unlucky injury-bugged teams are mentioned, the Atlanta Braves are normally overlooked.

For most baseball fans, they would look at you as if you were crazy if you mentioned that Braves have battled through several key injuries.  The Braves are believed to be lucky when it comes to the injury bug, with the exception of Chipper Jones.

I can’t blame them, since little has been mentioned about the Braves’ injuries. So far, they’ve lost Chipper Jones and Kris Medlen to season-ending injuries.  Jair Jurrjens, Eric O’Flaherty, and Matt Diaz have spent over a combined five months on the DL.  Those are pretty big losses for a team that relies heavily on pitching and situational hitting. 

Don’t forget that the Braves have lost production from players playing through injuries as well.  Jason Heyward and Troy Glaus are the best examples in this regard.  Key support players, such as David Ross and Takahashi Saito, have had to take time to heal as well.

This loss of quality pitching and offensive production is a pretty big challenge for any team. How well a team deals with these challenges is normally what separates great teams from good teams.

The 2010 Braves have faced these types of challenges better than anyone else in the NL.  That’s why they’ve been sitting in first place for the past two-and-a-half months.  It’s also why I feel we’ve yet to see the Atlanta Braves play their best baseball. 

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In the Atlanta Braves recent win over the Houston Astros, longtime third baseman Chipper Jones tore his left ACL and will need season-ending surgery to repair it.

Right off the bat, this leaves the Braves (and Jones) with many questions. While the long term question facing Jones may be about retirement (which I go into more detail about here), the short term focus for Atlanta is on finding a capable replacement for Chipper.

With the trade deadline already passed, I’m not sure that the Braves would be able to make a deal for anyone better than the players currently on their bench, and they would be wise to simply look within the organization.

Omar Infante/Brooks Conrad

The obvious solution to Chipper’s injury is to replace him with some combination of Infante and Conrad. For the next week, this would be primarily Conrad (as Infante has been filling in for the injured Martin Prado). In the long run, the two would share time, while Infante would also continue to back up other positions for Atlanta.

The drawback to this solution is that the Braves lose some of the talent off of their bench, which may be the best in the league. Infante is an All-Star utility player who is invaluable to the Braves, and nobody else on the Braves roster would be able to back up so many positions.

Conrad has also been a huge boost to the bench, hitting multiple grand slams and giving the bench a power bat that it has lacked in recent years.

Wes Timmons

Half of you might be saying, “Who?” right now.

Surprisingly, Timmons has been in the organization longer than most of the guys currently on the Atlanta roster. Now in his ninth professional season (all within Atlanta’s minor league system), Timmons has proved himself a capable hitter and on-base machine in AAA.

Thus far in 2010, Timmons has compiled a .289/.397/.402 line in Gwinnett. Although he has little power (the same can be said about Infante), Wes has a great career minor league on-base percentage (.382), something that can’t be said about Conrad or Infante.

Over the past two seasons in AAA, Timmons has proved he deserves a shot at the major league level, and the injury to Chipper might finally give him a chance.

Glaus to Third, Freeman to First

I’ll admit, this idea may be somewhat of a stretch. But first baseman Troy Glaus has spent the majority of his career playing third base, and he might be able to switch back to third and allow the Braves to call up Freddie Freeman.

While many could (and will) make the case that Freeman deserves to be starting over Glaus, it would appear that Bobby Cox will continue to be loyal to Glaus, and this may be the only way to get the Braves top hitting prospect to the majors.

In 2010, Freeman has a .305/.367/.506 line in AAA (and he is only 20 right now) and was ranked 20th in Baseball America’s mid-season prospect list.

What Will Happen

If I had to guess, I would say the Braves will simply let Infante and Conrad split time at third base for the remainder of the season, which probably will be the best for the Braves.

I’m hoping that Wes Timmons will get called up to Atlanta, although the Braves will likely just keep Diory Hernandez on the roster after Martin Prado returns from his injury.

While I like the third option because it gets Freeman to the majors (and the Braves could use a power bat at this point) I don’t really like the thought of putting Glaus at third base. Ideally, Glaus would be benched and Freeman could start at first, but that doesn’t seem to be an option that Braves management wants to pursue.

While nobody will be able to replace the leadership that Chipper had in the clubhouse, Infante and Conrad are capable backups (heck, Infante was an All-Star and Chipper wasn’t) and the Braves would be wise to use this opportunity to give them more playing time.

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Despite being home to the all-time home run king, the Atlanta Braves have never been known for their ability to hit the ball out of the park. They are somewhat better known as the “Anti-Yankees,” if you will. They have country accents, less money, and very little power, but they have still found ways to to win.

However, the recent surge of power from the Atlanta Braves’ offense has proven that this team can hit the long ball just as well as the next squad and, with Atlanta’s dominating pitching staff, sometimes the Braves only need one or two of these home runs to win ball games. 

Braves hitters have combined for 11 homers in their last six games, while the pitching staff has limited opponents to one homer in that same span. All of a sudden, the Braves have found that power that they have been searching for the whole season.

Jason Heyward finally reminded us that he can hit the ball over the fence while veterans Chipper Jones and Brian McCann have finally returned to their true form. Alex Gonzalez has three home runs as an Atlanta Brave and 20 for the the whole season. Meanwhile, Troy Glaus is once again showing signs of life, and hitting-machine Martin Prado will be returning from the DL any day now.

Suddenly, the Braves are looking powerful.

The Braves will be an even harder team to beat if they can continue to successfully combine great pitching and explosive offense. This month of August is a crucial month. The Braves must keep on finding ways to win baseball games and separate themselves from Philadelphia. This will be no easy task, but if Atlanta can continue to hit the ball well and shut down opposing offenses, they will be virtually unstoppable.

The long ball is an aspect of the Braves game that has seemed to be lacking for many years. If the Braves batters can stay healthy, that ball will continue to fly out of the park and the Braves will continue to win series.

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“I don’t know which is more discouraging, [the Braves’ defense] or Chickens.”
—EB White

Okay.

Maybe I took some creative liberties with that EB White quote (he was really talking about literature).

And maybe that wasn’t as funny as I thought it would be when I googled “discouraging quotes.”

And maybe I am just too lazy to get rid of what is becoming an introduction full of incessant rambling.

But one thing that is definitely not a “maybe” is that the Atlanta Braves’ defense has entrenched itself in a deeper rut than their sometimes anemic offense has ever found itself in 2010.

With the boot-fest that was the opening game of a three-game set against the Astros, I decided to take the initiative to check out the box scores of the Braves’ month of August (nine games).

What I found wasn’t pretty.

In those games the Braves have committed no errors only twice and have seen the following totals from the other games: one, two, one, two, two, two, and three errors. Add that up, and it’s 13 errors in nine August contests.

Overall, the boys from Hotlanta are—in newspaper-box-score-style—(5-4) for the month. In games with no errors, they are (2-0)—I’m continuing this theme throughout for the sake of “prettiness.” With one error, they are (0-2). And with two or more, miraculously, the Braves are (3-2).

Now, that might indicate that the Braves are alright with this shoddy, at best, defense.

But, eventually, as with what happened in a 10-to-4 route at the hands of the Astros, the E’s are going to start catching up with the playoff-hopeful Braves.

Those one-run decisions are going to start swaying in favor of opponents more and more (for the record, the Braves are (16-17) in those types of games).

And these now-familiar comeback kids will have fewer and fewer opportunities to work their magic.

There’s no one individual to point at, either. Troy Glaus has made his share of blunders. Alex Gonzalez, despite quite a few spectacular efforts, has booted a grounder here and there. Brian McCann has thrown a ball or two away. And Chipper Jones has mishandled a few hops at the hot corner.

And the other four regulars on the field haven’t exactly been flawless, themselves.

Now, that’s not to say it’s time to leap off the Braves’ bandwagon just yet (even with the surging Phillies lurking).

After all, they have found a way to win a majority of these games—no matter how tiny that majority may be.

But some work has to be done with the leather if the Braves hope to win the “close ones” and surge at least somewhat comfortably into the postseason. 

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The Atlanta Braves have been due for a slump for a little over two months now. Well, that slump has finally arrived and it just so happens that the Braves start losing when the Phillies start winning. Now that Atlanta’s division lead has almost completely evaporated, it is time for Braves fans to start looking for a scapegoat and the most popular candidate so far is First Baseman Troy Glaus.

Troy Glaus’ lack of production in the heart of the order is one reason for the Braves’ latest offensive woes. Since June 22, Atlanta’s first baseman has hit .165 with zero homers, a .303 on-base percentage and a .220 slugging percentage and those are not numbers that you want to see right smack in the middle of the order. However, before we start talking about The Amazing Freddie Freeman and why the Braves should have traded Glaus a month ago, let’s not forget what Glaus has done for The Atlanta Braves this year.

We saw this same thing happen from Glaus in April when we were just getting acquainted with the Braves new first baseman. Sure, his recent slump is lasting just a little bit longer than we would like, but where would the Atlanta Braves be right now if it weren’t for Troy Glaus? Most likely not in first place.

The legend of Troy is that he can show absolutely no signs of life for a few weeks, then he will carry a team on his shoulders for a month. That is exactly what The Braves have experienced this year. In the months of April and July, Glaus has looked like nothing more than a chubby Nate McLouth, but the important statistic is that from May 1 to June 20, Glaus collected 46 RBIs while hitting .316 with 12 homers and a .579 slugging percentage. Those numbers crowned him the June player of the month and carried the Atlanta Braves all the way to the top of the tough NL East.

The real reason for the Braves’ recent offensive slump is their lack of hitting with runners in scoring position. Atlanta is just 18 for 108 with RISP in their past 11 games and the Braves will be lucky to contend for the wild card if that trend continues. That is a .167 average with men on second or third and Troy Glaus is not to blame for those numbers, the whole lineup is. The Braves just can’t seem to find those big hits anymore. It seems like every time Braves country bends their elbow and begins the Tomahawk Chop, our chanting is rudely interrupted by an inning ending double play. If you really love to analyze statistics, you would be interested to know that Troy Glaus is batting .270 with runners in scoring position, a better average than Brian McCann, Eric Hinske and Martin Prado.

Troy Glaus is going to get hot again and he is going to get hot at the perfect time. Hopefully, a little rest mentally and physically will do the Braves RBI leader some good, but until then Braves fans have to be patient with the infamously streaky hitter. It will be worth the wait.

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That Braves offense that led the charge to the top of the standings during a 20-win month of May has seemingly been relieved of command.

Going back to the All-Star break, the Braves are 7-9 since Brian McCann roped a bases-clearing double in the NL’s 3-1 win in the Mid-summer Classic.

News flash—the Braves only have won one series since then.

These are not the Braves that many Atlanta fans came to recognize during a two-month span that took them from last place to a 7.0 game lead in the NL East.

The offense was at one time atop the NL in runs scored. Now, the Braves sit seventh out of 16 teams. While holding the best team on-base percentage, they’re still only seventh in on-base plus slugging.

What this means: They’re still getting on base, but not with quality or timely at-bats.

Let’s just look at this most recent road trip.

The Braves’ three wins came one in each series. Jason Heyward had a big part in two of those wins, as he stole home against the Nationals, and doubled in the winning runs against the Reds on Friday.

Brooks Conrad delivered the big blow with a pinch-hit grand slam against the Marlins a week ago.

Brian McCann had two big games on the trip, and has generally been pretty consistent since the break. Matt Diaz’s bat has been somewhat inexplicably relegated to part-time duty.

Oh, Melky, Alex, Chipper, Troy, Eric. Care to give these guys a hand now that Prado’s out for a week or two???

Let’s go player by player and analyze (OBP/SLG/OPS) the peaks (and valleys) of the recent past.

Brian McCann

The All-Star has looked the part, as July was his best month of the season. He hit .321 for the month with five HRs and 20 RBI for a line that reads .409/.543/.952. His passed ball might have cost the Braves a win, but he was the only one to drive in runs that game for the Braves it seemed, so it’s hard to complain too much.

Troy Glaus

When Glaus hit a walk-off HR against Kansas City on June 19, he was hitting .280 with a .372/.496/.868 line, with 14 HR and 55 RBI. As of today, his averaged has dropped to .244 with a line that now reads .354/.410/.764 and upped his RBI total to 61.

Six weeks has produced six RBI. Yes, you read that right.

The month of July was “highlighted” with one multi-hit game, and an average of .182. His OPS line reads something that Tim Hudson would be embarrassed with:  .310/.234/.546.

He’s done nothing for six weeks, and somehow Bobby Cox still puts him in the four or five slot. It’s likely time to bench him, and call up Freddie Freeman.

Eric Hinske

Hinske’s July swoon hasn’t been as sharp as that of Troy Glaus. Three HRs and nine RBI in 52 at-bats doesn’t seem too bad, but he’s been inconsistent. After hitting above .300 in both April and July, Hinske’s average dipped to .260 in June and .212 in July. His .300/.442/.742 line for July means that he’s been clutch at times, cold at others.

Martin Prado

Fans all over Braves country cringed when they saw Prado slide home on Friday and immediately scream in pain as his right wrist got caught underneath him.

He’s come down after being well above .330 for most of the season. He powered six HRs during July, but for the month, only hit .257. When men were on base, he couldn’t come through for the big hit—if they were on base for him. Of his nine RBI in July, six of those times he drove in himself. Leadoff homeruns are great, but he can produce more RBI with some baserunners in front of him. His 22 RBI in May demonstrated that.

Omar Infante

Prado’s likely fill-in until the pinky is healed, Infante hit .429 during the month of July in 63 at-bats. His one HR and eight RBI during that span doesn’t jump out, but the .455/.492/.947 numbers probably should. The Braves need him to minimize the loss of Prado for a while, and maintain a hot bat in the middle infield to get the Braves on track.

Alex Gonzalez

Gonzo has been feeling under the weather the past few days, and that followed a five-game stretch where he didn’t get a hit. He hasn’t really been the run producer the Braves had hoped since coming over from Toronto. Perhaps that’s because no one’s on base for him to drive in. Nevertheless, the first 10 games after coming over—hitting .360 is something the Braves would love. Even .280 with some more clutch RBI the Atlanta fans and players would be thrilled with.

Chipper Jones

Chipper’s been consistent most of the season. Consistently not producing enough for a No. 3 hitter. His high RBI month is 15 (May), and he’s yet to hit more than two HRs in any month this season, or more than .270. Sorry, but a .329/.378/.708 line for the month of July for your “best” hitter is not going to cut it.

This is the one position the Braves don’t have an answer for. Based on his numbers, Jones should be hitting seventh in the lineup. Perhaps whatever retirement talk was going on earlier this season wasn’t exactly premature. I’m sure Jones, who’s as intelligent and studious a hitter as there ever will be, is not satisfied with what he’s been doing at the plate. I know Braves fans—like him or not—aren’t happy with the performance either.

Melky Cabrera

A lot of people stated the Braves didn’t get much for Javier Vazquez. Pretty sad when you consider the best part of the trade is a minor leaguer who might be dominant in the majors in a few years (Arodys Vizcaino).

July was Melky’s best month of the season. You might be laughing, but it was. Sort of.

Hitting .289 with a line of .353/.461/.813 is pretty respectable from a lower in the order guy. It was the first month this year the Melk Man had an OPS over .750

One HR and three RBI and looking slow in the outfield is not.

Matt Diaz

I have one request for Bobby Cox. Please put this man in the lineup just about every day?

Since Diaz came off the DL in late June, he’s arguably been the best run-producer for the Braves. In only 53 AB in July, Diaz smacked five HRs and knocked in 14 runs, while hitting .340.

Bobby, he’s healthy, and he can hit. Please let him do that. If you need any more information please look at the next line.

.364/.736/1.099.

Guys with a month-long OPS of over 1.000 should not be playing half the time.

Yes, he’s a lefty-killer, hitting .369 over the previous three seasons against lefties. But .265 with 10 HR and 59 RBI over the same period against righties isn’t that bad. If he played against all lefties and a good number of righties, he’d project to be a .300+ hitter and smack 15-20 HR.

OK. Enough said.

Jason Heyward

Heyward’s not in the right spot in the lineup. Since his return from the DL, he’s hit .356 with a line that reads .457/.458/.915. But he hasn’t homered since I saw him blast one off James Shields in mid-June and only has six RBI.

The first six weeks of the season, when Heyward was healthy, he was driving the ball all over the place and driving in runs. He and McCann are the most dangerous hitters in the Braves lineup right now. Diaz has been more productive, but still isn’t quite in the category of Heyward and McCann.

So with the recent addition of Rick Ankiel (who could be good, and could be so-so), here’s how I would make out the Braves lineup (once Prado returns)

Against Lefties

• 2B – Prado
• 3B – Jones
• RF – Heyward
• LF – Diaz
• C – McCann
• SS – Gonzalez
• 1B – Glaus
• CF – Cabrera/Infante

Against Righties

• 2B – Prado
• 3B – Jones
• RF – Heyward
• C – McCann
• LF – Diaz
• CF – Ankiel
• SS – Gonzalez
• 1B – Glaus (or Freeman?)

Looking ahead a bit. There are two potential moves the Braves should make later this season or in the offseason to balance their lineup.

If Troy Glaus’ slump continues, perhaps calling up Freddie Freeman, or trading (again) for Adam LaRoche if the Diamondbacks wouldn’t want too much in return, might be necessary. Glaus has become a major hole in that lineup.

Right now, the Braves’ lineup is a bit left-heavy. They’re looking for a power bat, a right-handed one who would play the outfield, center if possible.

The free-agent market this year expects to include Phillies outfielder Jayson Werth. I can completely understand why the Braves couldn’t or wouldn’t get him in a trade (the Phillies aren’t going to trade a bat like that against their main competitor in the same division). However, next year, the Phillies seem to think that Domonic Brown will be manning right field, with Ibanez again in left and Victorino in center.

The Braves would be wise to give serious consideration to bringing in Werth to play between Diaz and Heyward and hit right before or after Brian McCann in the lineup.

Unless the Braves snap out of their offensive funk, the 2010 season may be over sooner than expected.

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