Kuzul

In an effort to bolster their lineup and make a run at the Phillies in 2010, the Atlanta Braves added third baseman Troy Glaus.  

It is okay to admit it—you saw that the Atlanta Braves added Troy Glaus to the roster this off-season, and you discounted it.  You considered him washed-up, old, and overrated to begin with.  I know I did.

In my 2010 Atlanta Braves Spring Preview I labeled Chipper Jones, Troy Glaus, and Eric Hinske the “Papa Bear, Mama Bear, and Baby Bear of over-the-hill third basemen,” and commented that using the trio as a platoon at both third base and first base could either be very effective or “a hilarious failure.”

Troy Glaus is probably okay with having been discounted by baseball fans this off-season—because it isn’t the first time it has happened to him.  

The American League homerun king at the age of 23 with 47 bombs in 2000, Glaus already looked washed up by the age of 27, missing more than 170 games over two years in what should have been his prime from 2003 to 2004.

It was after playing in only 58 games with the Anaheim Angels in ’04 that Glaus first came to the National League and had an immediate impact—37 homeruns, 97 RBI, and an .885 OPS for second place (albeit 77-85) Arizona Diamondbacks team.

Apparently unconvinced that Glaus could be a full-timer again, Arizona quickly cut bait, shipping Glaus to Toronto in exchange for Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batista.  In Toronto, Glaus essentially matched what he had done in Arizona—38 homeruns, 104 RBI, and 105 runs with an .868 OPS.

Injuries sidelined Glaus again in 2007, and in January 2008 the Blue Jays and Cardinals exchanged washed up third basemen, with Toronto sending Glaus to St. Louis in exchange for Scott Rolen.  In St. Louis, Glaus once again proved that, when healthy, he could still hit—he had 27 homeruns, 99 RBI, and an .856 OPS.

Unfortunately, Glaus missed all but 14 games in 2009, which led to his joining the Atlanta Braves this season in an effort to prove at age 33 what he had to prove at age 26—that he could be healthy all season and be a positive contributor on offense.

Thus far, he has done just that.  After Tuesday night’s victory over the Phillies—which gives Atlanta a game-and-a-half lead in the NL East—Glaus is now second on the Braves in homeruns with nine and first on the Braves in RBI with 40; over a full season, this translates out to approximately 27 homeruns and 120 RBI.

Not bad for a guy who has been “washed up” for much of the last five years.

The question going forward for Troy Glaus is this: is Troy Glaus still a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate?  As discussed in a previous article, I have broken the Future Hall of Famer question into three sub-questions.

1) Would Troy Glaus be a Hall of Famer if his career ended today?

The answer to this question is clearly “no.”  His numbers are inadequate all the way around.

2) Would Troy Glaus be a Hall of Famer if he continued on his expected trajectory?

This is a closer question.  Glaus currently ranks 12th amongst third basemen in homeruns (though he is really playing first base for the Braves this season) with 312.  Ahead of him on this list, however, is an assortment of non-Hall of Famers: Ron Cey, Vinny Castilla, Gary Gaetti, Matt Williams, Graig Nettles, and Darrell Evans.  

Suffice it to say that if Glaus were to play four more seasons and finish with somewhere between 380 and 400 homeruns, he would remain a tough case for the Hall.  Indeed, he would probably be this generation’s Graig Nettles.

3) If Troy Glaus held on long enough to reach some career milestones that don’t currently seem attainable, would he be a Hall of Famer?

Glaus is currently 33 years old.  What if he defied the odds and played until he was 40 years old?  That is seven more years.  What if he were to average 20 homeruns per year for seven more years?  That would bring his career total to about 450 homeruns.

Now tell me—does a career third baseman/first baseman with 450 career homeruns get into the Hall of Fame?

That’s a very good question.

It’s okay to say “no”—Glaus has been doubted before, and he’s come through time and time again.

He’s used to it by now.

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On April 30, the Atlanta Braves were sitting at 9-14—fresh off of a nine-game losing streak and five games behind the division-leading New York Mets.

Holding a minus-18 run differential and an offense that could do virtually nothing but draw a walk, the Braves’ outlook on 2010 was bleak to say the best.

Fast forward to Memorial Day (May 31), and the Braves are a half-game up on the Phillies with a plus-45 run differential and appear as if they’ve figured out things on the offensive side of the ball.

Led by Jason Heyward (who holds the fourth highest OPS at 1.019 in BASEBALL and best in the NL) who had a .358/.475/.667 May after taking a more aggressive approach at the advice of Bobby Cox, Martin Prado (the NL hit and OBP leader), and Troy Glaus (the NL RBI leader for the month of May), the Braves capped off the month of May with a six-game winning streak to bring their season’s record to 29-22.

The pitching, as was anticipated heading into 2010, was also spectacular during the Braves’ 20-win month as Tim Hudson (4-0 1.59 ERA in the month of May) and company posted a 3.53 team ERA with 192 total strikeouts.

But, with those impressive stats comes the all important question…is this the REAL Atlanta Braves squad?

Well, I can tell you: I don’t think it is.

The pitching seems to be legit, but it’s going to be hard for Troy Glaus and Jason Heyward to replicate the ridiculous averages they posted and for Glaus and Martin Prado to re-create their 20+ RBI months (especially the latter since he has transitioned to the lead-off role) on a month-in and month-out basis.

But, on the same hand, Chipper Jones and Brian McCann are going to do a little more than, respectively, one home run and 10 RBI they posted in May.

For those reasons, I think it’s fair to postulate that the real identity of the Braves lies somewhere between their identity as the team with multiple sub-.200 hitters, as they were known in April, and the team that was, arguably, the best in the National League for the season’s second month.

My gut tells me it’s closer to the latter, though.

This is a team that should be good-to-go for a divisional/Wild Card fight if the right moves are made (i.e. losing McLouth and shuffling the outfield with some sort of call-up or trade…Ty Wigginton/Luke Scott, anyone?) as long as the staff (which should be bolstered by the return of Jair Jurrjens at some point in June) and bullpen hold up.

Now all they have to do to look “real” is get their fifth starter a W (as Kenshin Kawakami sits at 0-7 on the season)…

And now, a good (albeit unrelated) song.

(This post is also featured on SportsLeak.com)

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Talk about a turnaround.

Just six games ago, the Braves were shut-out by the No. 2 man on the all-time homers allowed list.

Now, they find themselves dumping a high-powered Brewers attack out of a dust pan and into the trash after outscoring the Brew Crew by an unbelievable (keep in mind we’re talking about the team ranked next-to-last in runs in the NL coming into this series) 21-run margin over three games. 

The heroes of this series (outside of the usual suspects Jason Heyward, who returned to the line-up for game two of this series and went on to steal two bases, and Martin Prado, who hit a grand slam in game one) may be surprising, though.

Troy Glaus, Brooks Conrad, and Eric Hinske played out of their minds (the latter two in only the two final games).

Glaus went 5-for-13 (.385) with two homers, five RBIs, three runs scored, and also tacked on two walks. 

Hinske, while manning what had been a massive left field hole for the Braves, went 3-for-6 (.500) with three doubles, four RBIs, and only one strikeout to two bases on balls.

Brooks went 4-for-9 (.444) with two homers (both off of Carlos Villanueva to right field), five RBIs, and some pretty slick fielding over at the hot corner.

Wow.

Not bad for two guys that have been riding the pine all year, (though Hinske has shown all season that he has deserved better) and another that for the month of April was being called “washed up” by many in Braves Nation.

But, the question remains: can the Braves keep it up?

After all, they dazzled us with the bats in the opening series and have been putting up eight- nine- and ten-spots at various points over the course of the ’10 campaign–what makes this series of gappers, drives, and lucky bloops any different?

Well, I’ll tell you—it comes down to the personnel.

And with the group that was thrown out for the Milwaukee series, I really, honestly, believe that this is for real (knock on wood).

Add to that the fact that this line-up has been lacking two cogs in Yunel Escobar and Chipper Jones that have been vital to the team’s success over the past few years, and this thing looks downright scary come their expected returns this Saturday (I’m referring to them being “in there” together—Chipper will be back sooner).

Just imagine…

R 2B Martin Prado
L RF Jason “Manchild” Heyward
S 3B Chipper Jones
R 1B Troy Glaus
L  C Brian McCann
L LF Eric Hinske
R SS Yunel Escobar (yeah, I believe the ’09 Escobar is the real Escobar) 
L CF Nate McLouth

With the performances in the month of May for those guys, there is plenty to support a Braves starting staff that only gave up three earned runs (Hanson with zero, Hudson with one, and Lowe, typically with the highest, with two) to the Brewers in this past series.

Now, there will be a hitch here and there (after all, this is baseball we’re talking about), no doubt about it (and with Conrad swinging a big bat, I’d almost be willing to give him Jones’ position for a while and stick with the Infante/McLouth-Prado-Heyward set-up…but we all know that’s not going to happen).

But there is no way that this group can be as anemic as the Leche/Diaz-packed order we saw at the start of this most recent road trip (which the Braves managed to finish up 5-4 in spite of those awful orders).

I’m not going to call a 15-game win-streak for the Braves right now—not by a long shot.

But, I am going to call for some good success on the horizon (if that makes sense) since this team finally seems to be coming around.

See all you needed was a little…

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Today, in the Braves second consecutive win (we need one more for a winning streak), Troy Glaus had three hits in four trips to the plate (his only out was when Hunter Pence made a diving grab) bringing his season average up 25 points to .221.

But with a couple of his hits coming against left-handed pitching, I’m among those still skeptical of Glaus. To say the least, he has been terrible this year. Whether it’s grounding into double plays with the bases loaded or striking out key situations, Glaus has done played a key part in the Braves slow start.

While there is still time to turn it around, someone to keep an eye on might be Barbaro Canizares, who is currently playing in AAA Gwinnett. Freddie Freeman likely won’t be ready until at least next year, and the Braves may not want to trade away their talent for another first baseman.

While I don’t think Barbaro will be an impact player on the major league level, he might be better than Glaus if things don’t change.

Canizares is a 30 year old who has barely had any time above the AAA level. Last year he got his first cup of coffee in the majors, getting four hits in 21 at-bats.

In 2010, he’s off to a slow start in AAA, but with a significant sample of at-bats there in the past, there is no reason to expect he won’t be hitting .300 by the end of the year.

In 330 games at the AAA level, Canizares has produced a .301/.359/.436 line, and could be a useful hitter at the major league level.

While most of his power comes from hitting doubles, Canizares wouldn’t be the home run threat that a healthy Glaus would, but he also wouldn’t be a black hole in the team’s batting average.

With a healthy on-base percentage, Canizares could prove to be a useful hitter in the lower half of the order (and our leading homerun hitter, Jason Heyward could move into the middle).

Again, I’m not saying that Barbaro should be called up to replace Glaus now. I also think that the Braves would be wise to look outside the organization if Glaus is unable to turn his season around. But if Troy continues to struggle while starting, and the Braves refuse to make a trade, Canizares should be a given a chance to provide a boost at the bottom of the Braves order.

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