Kuzul

The Coors Field Rockies showed up for their brief home stand on Friday night.

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Considering that it is August, post-season baseball is just two months away. With the playoffs looming, the way the standings will ultimately shake out could be determined relatively soon. 

Many of these determining factors come down to how teams can mesh, second half track records, and team health.

However, on each contending team, there are certain individuals that hold the key to contention for the remainder of the regular season. Heading into the second week of August, now is the time for the difference-makers to stand up and propel their team to meaningful wins.

Here are 15 game changing difference-makers on different contending teams that will help decide the fate of their respective clubs as the 2010 MLB season heads down to the wire.

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Well, that was and awful road trip. Two wins and nine losses is not the way to make a playoff run.

Not only did the losses mount on this road trip, but it’s the way the losses came that tear the hearts out of Rockies fans. A walk-off homer, a walk-off single, a 3-4 loss on Sunday after being up 3-2, and the game ending with Ian Stewart striking out LOOKING with runners in scoring position, as well as the winning run coming on a wild pitch where Rockies pitcher Rafael Betencourt failed to cover home plate.

It was a sloppy and heartless display of baseball this week by the Rockies. Where does that leave them? Fourth place in the NL West at 8 games behind the Division leading Padres, and fifth place in the NL Wild Card at 5 games behind the division rival San Francisco Giants. The Los Angeles Dodgers are 2 games ahead of the Rockies as well.

So, was that the season? Are the Rockies done?

In a word: NO. There are still 63 games left in the season to play. That’s a full 1/3 of the season. However, being behind so many teams in both the Wild Card and the Division makes the hill pretty steep to climb. Every team ahead becomes a multiplier in how many games a team is REALLY behind.

Teams don’t usually fall out of contention with one bad streak. They usually fall out of contention as the number of games left to make up ground get smaller, and smaller. The smaller the number of games left, the higher the winning percentage has to be to make up ground on teams ahead of them.

The Rox return to Coors Field with a home stand against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs. The Rockies will get a bounce from being back home. They should get a bounce from playing beatable teams like the Pirates and the Cubs.

However, even dead cats bounce.

This team has yet to show in 2/3 of a season, what it takes to win.

They have yet to play full baseball game with solid starting pitching, solid relief pitching, solid defense, and good timely hitting. This team has done all of that individually in stretches, but not all at once for any length of time. Now Rockies fans will be hoping this team shows some heart, but all those areas together and start winning games.

Bottom line: the only way the Rockies are going to gain ground.win more games than the other guys.

Personally, I think this next week will give Rockies fans false hope, as ultimately this team is NOT talented enough to make the playoffs. That’s right, I finally said it. It’s not as talented as everyone thinks it is. They have no first baseman, no right fielder, and their center fielder and lead-off hitter can’t get on base and is totally lost being a switch hitter. And this is before you get to their third baseman Ian Stewart, who strikes out almost a full third of the time! (K percentage 2010: 28.9) and a Win Probability/Clutch rating of -.90 which is sadly embarrassing.

A stat I find especially telling is the Rockies team batting WAR for the season is only 10.0. Only two teams in the NL are worse: the Pirates and the Astros! That’s not the company the Rockies need to be in. I’m not a big fan of WAR, as I think it’s pretty subjective, but any stat that says your team is in a group that includes the Astros and Pirates is pretty telling.

One of the Rockies biggest problems is not having a steady lineup. This is due to the fact the Rockies have had a string of injuries to their front line players, but also some starters simply haven’t produced. But the real reason the Rockies haven’t had a stable lineup is due to the micro-managing and tinkering of manager Jim Tracy. I don’t even think that at this point he knows who his best players are or who is producing, or who to place in what spot either in the field or in the lineup. It looks to me like Tracy picks names out of a hat.

On the bright side, the Rockies will get Troy Tulowitzki back from the DL on Tuesday. Hopefully Clint Barmes will move to the bench where he belongs, and the Rockies continue to play Jonathan Herrera at second.

Barmes for the record did what is typical of Barmes, went on an amazing hot streak for a few weeks, only to totally lose it and go completely ice cold, looking foolish at the plate. Barmes is now batting just .185 over the last 14 days. His performance now screams backup player. Barmes is decent to even good over short periods of time, but he’s too streaky to be an everyday player. Hopefully the next time he goes crazy hot, I won’t buy into it being something real, like I did earlier when I said Barmes should be starting at third over Stewart.

Getting Tulo back will help. But is it too little, too late for the Rockies?

Article Also Featured on The Rockies Reporter

and My Team Rivals Rockies:  Blake Street Baseball

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The MLB All-Star Lineup has garnered a variety of reactions, ranging from cheers and sighs of relief to whimpers and shrieks of disbelief.

When the 2010 MLB All-Star lineups were released, there were undoubtedly as many elated fans as there were bitter fans.

No matter where the stadium is located, fans maintain an unceasing allegiance to their favorite teams and players.

Being chosen to play in the All-Star game represents the ultimate recognition that fans, coaches, and players alike have observed, reveled in, and appreciated every moment of a player’s season thus far.

However, examining the all-stars chosen from the NL West has generated a surge of controversy over just who earned their position.

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The  future may be sooner than anyone thought.

Don’t look now, but the Colorado Rockies just won another series. This one was a big home series against division rival, the San Francisco Giants.

Since June 11th, the Rockies are 14-9. That’s not amazing, and it’s still not enough winning.

I could mention how the Rockies need to gain ground if they hope to make the playoffs. They need to win more than the Padres and the Dodgers (Rockies actually lost a game on both the last 10 games even beating the Padres two out of three).

That’s not what this article is about.

The Rockies, while not racking up amazing win totals, are still starting to win.

They are playing like every game matters.

Earlier in the season many of them looked like they had better places to be than the ballpark. They gave up games. They gave up at bats. Many times they looked punch-less. For much of the season, they were dead last in batting average and scoring in the National League after the sixth inning.

I wrote an article about players having to step up when there is an injury. That’s not news. That’s the story of every team in every sport when there is an injury to a star player.

I suggested that Ian Stewart and Brad Hawpe were the two I thought needed to step up. So who has stepped up? And does it actually cause some line-up questions in the future?

Who out there picked Clint Barmes as the hero? Anyone? Didn’t think so.

Clint Barmes is every Rockies fans’ favorite whipping boy. He’s the weak link. He’s the guy that needs to be benched. He’s the reason a blockbuster trade for Dan Uggla, Brian Roberts, or Bobby Grich needs to go down to replace him.

Clint Barmes has been known to be streaky hitter over his career. He’s on a hot streak now. Over the last 30 days, he is tied for the most hits (30), tied for the most runs scored,15, and second on the team with 15 RBI. He’s also had the most doubles (7) and tied for third on the team with three home runs.

I really didn’t see this coming, but it seems like Clint is embracing his moment in the spotlight. He still has a tendency to chase sliders out of the zone. However, he’s able to hit pitches in the zone and make them drop.

On the flip side of Barmes is Ian Stewart.

Stewart has almost completely disappeared. His line over the last 30 days is .185/.312/.323/.635 He’s had only one double, and two home runs, and only five RBI. He’s also struck out 24 times in only 63 at bats! He’s starting to lose playing time to Melvin Mora, who hasn’t been lighting it up himself, only batting .215 over the last 30 days.

Many Rockies fans have wanted a trade at second base. I’ll say they don’t need to trade for a second baseman. I say the Rockies need to upgrade at third base, and that upgrade is in-house already.

It’s Troy Tulowitzki.

Yeah, you read that right.

When Tulo returns, he needs to be moved to third. Stewart needs to be benched. Barmes needs to start at shortstop. But, but, but…. isn’t Tulo the greatest fielding shortstop ever?

Not this year.

His UZR is 3.2, which is pretty amazing compared to Barmes at short who’s still a strong 1.9. However, if you look at RZR which measures handing balls in a normal fielding zone, Barmes is higher with a .877 rating against Tulo’s .838 rating.

In other words, yes. Tulo is an amazing shortstop. So is Clint Barmes.

I’m giving up on Ian Stewart.

I don’t think he can hit major league pitching. This was the year for him to step forward. However, he’s just another young power hitter that can’t make that adjustment to the major leagues. In fact, he’s gone backward.

He has a career batting average of .241. This year, he’s still above that even with his slide at .250 for 2010.

In ’09 Stewart hit 25 home runs. This year he’s on pace to hit only 17.

Strikeouts have been a problem with Stewart, as they are with many young left-handed sluggers. Instead of going down, he’s on pace to have near 150 K’s after having 134 in ’09.

It’s time the Rockies look at their roster and play players that are performing. Bench those that aren’t.

That means it’s time to end the experiment with Stewart.

I think he still has an option year. Maybe he could use a refresher course in AAA, like Dexter Fowler which worked out great, or Chris Iannetta, which wasn’t as great on his return to the majors.

But I move Tulo and not Barmes to third for a couple of reasons.

Tulo has the bat to be respectable as a third baseman.

Barmes didn’t get hot until he was put at shortstop. You can see watching the game that short is his natural position. He feels comfortable there when starting there.

Tulowitzki is the closest the Rockies have to a major league third baseman in their system. His size and his hitting profile him as a third baseman. Moving to third, would allow him to bulk up as he gets older, when we could assume his range will go down as well.

Tulo has been compared to Cal Ripken Jr. many times in his young career. Ripken also had to move to third as he got older.

Tulo doesn’t have to make that move now as he’s still a great shortstop. However, it’s inevitable he’ll end up there eventually. Might as well make it now and keep Barmes in his comfort role.

Injuries to stars force fans and team management to look at their players in a new light. Some step up. Some don’t. Clint Barmes has stepped up. Johnathon Herrera has stepped up. Ian Stewart has disappeared. If this trend continues, the Rockies should be thinking about trading or benching Stewart, and not Barmes when Tulowitzki returns.

This article is also featured on: The Rockies Reporter

And also on: My Team Rivals: Blake Street Baseball

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Middle infielders have been taking a beating this season with many of the top names having injury issues at some point in time.  Let’s get an update on some of the players currently nursing injuries:

• Chase Utley – According to Matt Geleb of The Philadelphia Inquirer (click here for the article), Chase Utley “had surgery to repair a severely torn ligament in his right thumb Thursday.”   Ultimately, he’s expected to be in a splint for five weeks and won’t return to the Phillies lineup for at least eight weeks.  There’s hope he could return sooner, as Utley has recovered from injuries earlier than expected in the past.  Still, no matter how you slice it, fantasy rosters are going to be handcuffed for the next several weeks and possibly for two months or more.
• Troy Tulowitzki – Troy Renck of The Denver Post (click here for the article) is reporting that “An X-Ray this week showed that the chipped bone is not moving, which represents good news. It’s healing on schedule. As such, Tulo only has to wear a brace at night.”  We’ll just have to wait and see what happens, but it’s nice to hear that things are progressing as expected.
• Jose Reyes – He remains out of action due to “an injury to his right side” according to Adam Rubin of ESPN NY (click here for the article).  The injury is being compared to Angel Pagan’s, who has been in and out of the lineup for the past seven games or so.  Reyes isn’t expected to return before Saturday, when the Mets take on Stephen Strasburg.  Those in daily leagues can adjust your lineups accordingly, but after last season problems, expect the Mets to proceed extremely cautiously.

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These days fantasy baseball is loaded with crazy stats for everything you could possibly think of, from hits to Linear Weights Run Value . Some of them are completely worthless to most of us, and to be honest, if you have to go to something like Ultimate Zone Rating to decide between two players, you can probably just flip a coin.

But there are obscure stats that are important for fantasy baseball. Fielder Independent Pitching (FIP), Outside Zone Swing Rate (O-Swing%), Batting Average on Balls in Play (BaBIP) and Line Drive Percentage (LD%) are just a few of the endless numbers fantasy experts (and major league organizations) use to judge players. Thus knowing what these stats mean and where to find them can give you a huge leg up on the competition.

The very first thing you should do (after reading the rest of the article of course) is look at Fantasy University , where you can find explanations of everything related to dominating your fantasy league. There is a ton of valuable information there, try not to blow through it in one sitting.

So where do we find these stats? There are two main websites that I use, the first being Baseballreference.com . It’s basically a stat encyclopedia, very straightforward and simple to use. There are also reference sites for the other three major sports, along with college basketball and the Olympics. Great for when you want to know Dennis Rodman’s best single season rebounds per game average (18.7! Per game! Makes Superman look like Robin).

The best part is the game logs, which you can use to find a player’s stat line during any given number of games by clicking on the first and last games of the stretch you want to measure. It’s important when trying to identify trends and players starting to get hot. Use this to identify some guys who could get hot after the All-Star Break.

But this pales in comparison to the unquestioned king of fantasy stat sites: Fangraphs . Everything from Walks to WAR, Holds to Horizontal Pitch Movement, is presented in table or graph form. If you can’t find it on Fangraphs, you don’t need it. Take some time sorting through the site, but watch out because the more you dig, the more you discover you can dig for.

Hopefully that will keep you occupied and avoiding work for the next few weeks. Let’s hit some numbers.

47—Age of Jaime Moyer , who last week became the oldest pitcher to ever beat the Yankees. Amazing. He’s been in the majors longer than I’ve been alive, having played with six different teams over 23 seasons. Since 1996 he has failed to record double digit wins just once, including two 20-win campaigns with the Mariners. Obviously his skills have diminished but the fact that he still has enough in the tank to hold down a spot in a contender’s rotation is extraordinary. Respect your elders.

3—Home runs in the past eight games for Howie Kendrick , who after a slow start has an impressive .519 slugging percentage for the month of June to go with a .304 batting average. He had a good second half last year (33/6/36/.358) and now that he’s safely atop the Angels’ batting order with no competition for second base playing time, it looks like we could have a repeat performance. Those of you having trouble at the 2B spot definitely need to look into this guy.

.145—Jose Bautista’s batting average this month. Well we all saw that coming. Even worse are the two measly homers and five RBIs. I’m sorry but when a career .237 hitter who has never hit more than 20 home runs in a season randomly goes off for 16 in two months we call that an “enjoy it while it lasts” situation, and that situation look about over. Trade him for whatever you can get at this point.

Stop. Hammer Time .

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I am starting to notice a trend in Colorado Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki’s career.

In his rookie year of 2007, Tulowitzki went through the season healthy and the Rockies made the playoffs. In 2008, Tulowitzki went through an injury-plagued season (played in only 101 games) and the Rockies missed the playoffs. Last year, Tulowitzki stayed healthy, had an MVP season, and the Rockies made the playoffs.

Now in 2010, it looks like Tulowitzki is suffering through another injury-plagued season. Will the Rockies make the playoffs? We will just have to wait and see, but not having Tulowitzki in the lineup certainly won’t help the situation.

It was revealed over the weekend that “Tulo” will miss six to eight weeks because of a broken left wrist. Tulo broke his wrist when it was hit by a fastball from Minnesota Twins’ pitcher Alex Burnett in the eighth inning of Thursday’s game.

Obviously, this is a huge blow to the Rockies.

Not only is Tulowitzki having a great season, but he is also the heart and soul of the Rockies’ team. Tulowitzki was hitting .306/.375/.502 with nine home runs, 17 doubles, and two SB’s in 62 games.

The Rockies went into Sunday’s game just three games behind the first place San Diego Padres in the NL West, so it will be up to guys like Brad Hawpe, Carlos Gonzalez and Ian Stewart to keep the Rockies’ offense afloat until their leader comes back. So the question now is, what do the Rockies do at SS until Tulowitzki comes back?

For starters, they have a couple of internal options. Clint Barmes will move over to SS for a majority of the starts, I assume, until Tulowitzki comes back. In this case, Melvin Mora or Jonathan Herrera will play second. Another second base option is Eric Young Jr., who is still some weeks away from returning.

The second internal option they have is SS Chris Nelson. Nelson was hitting .311/.384/.508 with five home runs in Triple-A. Nelson was the Rockies’ first round pick (ninth overall) in the 2004 Draft.

In the days that Nelson is playing short, the Rockies can move Barmes back to second. The Rockies certainly have their options internally, but what about outside the organization? The Rockies have some options there as well.

Colorado could look into a free agent like Adam Everett, or they could look to make a trade. Shortstops or second basemen that could be available are Ryan Theriot, Cesar Izturis, Adam Kennedy and Ty Wigginton.

I think Wigginton would be a good fit in Colorado. While he is not the best defensive second baseman in the planet (-3.6 UZR), his bat should make up for any defensive deficiencies he might have.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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As you all know by now, Troy Tulowitzki has a broken bone in his hand and was put on the disabled list on Friday, and could be out for about six weeks.  The good news is there was no ligament damage, which would have made his time away much longer.

Now, how does a team with hopes of making a playoff run, which has been struggling to score runs, hope to keep going now that they just lost their best hitter, their clubhouse leader and their cleanup hitter? (Granted as cleanup hitters go, Tulo really isn’t that great.  Hey, nine homers on the year doesn’t scream cleanup basher, even in the post steroid era).

There are few ways. One would be to make a trade and add talent from outside the organization.  This option really doesn’t hold up.  There are few players available that would make a difference.  Plus teams looking to trade talent want to trade fading broken down players, or huge contracts that usually don’t match a players performance.  They also want to get back young, cheap prospects as well, as salary relief.  But the key in making a trade work is to UPGRADE a position over what the Rockies currently have at that position.

Complicating the matters of making a trade is at what position would the Rockies look to upgrade?  If you look at players that are under-performing, you get right fielder Brad Hawpe, first baseman in Todd Helton, and third baseman Ian Stewart.  Second base would be another obvious position.

Let’s take a look at the positions.  Right fielder Brad Hawpe was the Rockies All-Star last year. Hawpe has one more year on his contract in 2011 for $11 million dollars, but there is a club buyout of $500,000 and it’s assumed the Rockies will use that buy out.  Hawpe is a career .283 hitter, and usually finishes right around 100 RBIs and 25 home runs.  This year he’s battled injuries but he’s now batting right at his career BA at .281, but has only had four home runs.

There is no reason to upgrade right field in 2010.  There is no one available that will greatly improve over Hawpe’s numbers, assuming he goes on a hot streak and regains some power.   Next year, Hawpe will be gone, Carlos Gonzales will be in right, and Dexter Fowler will back in center field for the Rockies, and it will be a cheaper outfield, as well as a better one.

Todd Helton has been awful this year, there is no doubt about it.  We are watching a player in full decline.  It’s sad to see the Todd-father as a shell of his once great Hall of Fame self.  (yeah, I said it…he’s a Hall of Famer)  But, his contract is massive.  No team will want to take that on, especially with Helton’s line of .243/.341/.318/.659.  So unless the Rockies plan on putting Todd on the bench, they aren’t going to replace him.  Helton at least still plays a solid first base with the glove, and will be in the lineup.

Second base, has been an area where Rockies fans have wanted an upgrade over Clint Barmes.  Many of us looked at Eric Young Jr’s minor league numbers and his speed, and thought he would/could be an upgrade.  There are of course concerns with EY2’s defense, but from what I’ve seen, at second, it’s adequate.  (But he damn sure isn’t an outfielder).  However, EY2 is injured with a broken leg (stress fracture, right tibia) and hasn’t begun anything beyond riding a stationary bike. 

But second is a position the Rockies could upgrade at.  But there is a catch. 

The Rockies also have depth coming up in the minor leagues at second.  Chris Nelson who was just promoted was a Rockies first-round draft pick. Hector Gomez is a shortstop and currently one of the top-rated prospects in the Rockies system.  However, Gomez has battled injuries, and is currently hurt right now.  Jonathan Herrera has been on the Rockies roster since Dexter Fowler was sent down.  Herrera is considered as a utility player.

The Rockies also have Kaz Matsui in AAA Colorado Springs to play second.  He’s not setting the Pacific Coast League on fire, right now, and the Rockies want him to get some more time there before calling him to the majors.  As much as I love Kaz, and I personally consider him a key cog in the 2007 World Series team, this is 2010, and Matsui, like the rest of us, is three years older.

What players are out there that the Rockies could trade for at second that would be an upgrade over their current stable of players?  Names suggested include Adam Everett, Cesar Izturis, Craig Counsell, Julio Lugo, Omar Vizquel, and Ryan Theriot.  I’d argue that none of these names are better long term than Eric Young Jr and/or Hector Gomez.  I’m not sure if any of these players right now are much of an upgrade over Chris Nelson or Jonathan Herrera.  And none of these name are worth giving up a prospect like a Hector Gomez or an Eric Young Jr to get.

There are two names that have come up that may or may not be available.  Toronto’s Aaron Hill, and Florida’s Dan Uggla. But neither the Jays nor the Marlins have given any indication they are willing to trade/sell, and both of these players will come with price tags in terms of prospects that I’m not sure the Rockies could pay.  Uggla also comes with a pretty good salary as well, making $7.8 million in 2010, and he has one more arbitration year before becoming a free agent.

Aaron Hill has a much better contract at $4 million in 2010, $5 million in 2011, and option years after that.  This doesn’t make him more affordable, in fact it increases his value in terms of prospects the Rockies would have to give up.  I’d say off the top of my head, the Rockies would have to give up Jhoulys Chacin, Christian Friedrich, and Hector Gomez at the very least to get him.  That’s a high price tag.

Which leaves us one position left the Rockies can upgrade at:  Third base, and Ian Stewart.  And that upgrade…is in house.  It’s in fact already on the Rockies roster now.  And his name is Ian Stewart.  Troy Renck of the Denver Post talked about Stewart stepping up in the Sunday Post today.  I totally agree with this well written article.  If there is one player the Rockies need in 2010 to live up to potential it’s Ian Stewart.

So the Rockies answer to how to get better in 2010 is not in a blockbuster trade.  It’s in having players step up and take a greater step forward in their career or more specifically in their year they are having so far.  It’s time for Stewart to be better than a career .243/.330/.446/.776 hitter, and better than he’s done in 2010 so far at .257 and only seven home runs. 

Stewart is/was project to be a .275-.280 hitter with around 30-35 home run power.  He needs to become that player, or the Rockies need to find a third baseman that can become that guy.

Stewart above all the other players is the key now. 

And remember Ian, the spinning ones…are sliders.

Also Featured on:  The Rockies Reporter

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Disaster struck today when the Colorado Rockies placed Troy Tulowitzki on the DL with a broken wrist.  He is expected to miss six to eight weeks or approximately 30-40 percent of the entire fantasy baseball regular season.  

At an already top-heavy position where the drop-off is significant after the elite players, fantasy owners need to make a quick decision.  You don’t want to put yourself in a position where you have to pick up a new SS every week because of lack of production. This strategy just wastes moves and fuels frustration.

Let’s not waste any time and get to business…I’ve done the homework, you make the decision.  

Below is a look at who will potentially be available and where I believe they should be ranked
 (last 30 days stats: Runs-HR-RBIs-Avg.-At Bats).

Alexei Ramirez  CWS (18–4–12-.293-99 ABs) Prime age of 28. He has a great swing and starting to heat up, could be in line for a big second half. 

Marco Scutaro BOS (17-2-15-.321-109 ABs) Great team with lots of lineup protection, aged 35, consistent career producer—mediocre. 

Jason Bartlett  TB (Just off DL  4-1-2-.167-36 ABs) Fresh off DL, may need a week to work on timing. Players reliant on speed need healthy legs…this was the break he needed. 

Miguel Tejada BALT (11-0-4-.270-111 ABs) Consistent veteran, true professional hitter, very friendly hitters park, decent protection at top of lineup by Nick Markakis. 

Mike Aviles  KC (16-0-9-.284-88 ABs) Good source of runs combined with okay average.  Mike has been troubled by injuries the past two seasons after a monster second half in 2008.  Sleeper potential. 

Replacing Troy Tulowitzki is truly impossible (19 Runs-8 HR-19 RBI-.323-93 ABs–4 SB). These numbers rank him ninth overall over the past month under Yahoo Rankings. This does not mean Colorado’s season is over, though. Making the correct decision now can keep them in the playoff/championship hunt.  

Tulo Owners: Who is available on your wire? How do you plan on replacing Troy?

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