Kuzul

October can’t come any sooner for fans of the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins, and Texas Rangers. The American League has little to no excitement on the postseason hunt in September with teams like the Red Sox and White Sox playing for any realistic hope that just isn’t there to be had. 

Major League Baseball is in a difficult spot when it comes down to September every year. The National Football League opens play in September and if a team such as the Red Sox or White Sox is out of the hunt you pretty much forget baseball to focus on your Patriots or Bears. 

Personally to play 162 games in the regular season and only have four teams from each league pass through to the next round of the season makes it impossible for teams to end playoff droughts. Teams like the Washington Nationals or Kansas City Royals will never make it to the playoffs in this system. Not with the wealthier teams dominating in their divisions with no space for them to make any ground up. 

Now with Major League Baseball taking the initiative to end the postseason before Halloween, any such fix to the playoffs would have to be relatively short. So what can be done to fix up a leaking faucet of a playoff system? MLB could start by adding a pair of teams into the mix giving 6 teams a shot at the playoffs from each league. 

American League/National League

Team #1 (Best Record); Bye                                                 Team #1 (Best Record); Bye

Team #2 (Second Best Record); Bye                                     Team #2 (Second Best Record); Bye

Team #3 (Winner advances to LDS)                                       Team #3 (Winner advances to LDS)

Team #4 (Loser goes home)                                                  Team #4 (Loser goes home)

Team #5 (Winner advances to LDS)                                       Team #5 (Winner advances to LDS)

Team #6 (Loser goes home)                                                  Team #6 (Loser goes home) 

Italics: Teams play in Wild Card Series (best-of-three) 

Essentially you would have your usual three division winners and now three wild card winners instead of a solo wild card team from each league. The top two teams from each league, if you were translating to this season, Rays and Yankees in the American League and let’s say Phillies and Reds in the National League would get a “bye” for the first round of the playoffs. 

This extra rest adds incentive to play well in the regular season and finish with a better record. This can be seen as one reason teams rarely reach 100 wins in a season mainly because the All-Star game awarding home-field advantage to the winner. Teams usually rest their players down the stretch once they clinch a spot and that’s what eliminates the triple-digit wins from the standings. 

Beyond the top two teams from each league, you have a pair of “Wild Card Series” games in each league. In order to keep the postseason within the month of October, the “Wild Card Series” should only be a best-of-three format. After it’s said and done, the best team from both leagues faces the lowest seeded team (team with lowest record) and vice-versa with the other two teams in both leagues.

In other words, the postseason would revert back to its original format with the LDS (League Division Series) in a best-of-five and a LCS (League Championship Series) in a best-of-seven. The World Series would be the grand finale to a baseball season in its usual best-of-seven format. 

In using this formula for the National League we would see the likes of the Braves, Reds, Padres, Phillies, Rockies, and Giants all in the playoffs this season. Now this would certainly take away from the luster of making it into the playoffs but it would make for an exciting run to see who can avoid the “Wild Card Series” and have a bye to start off instead. Additionally, more teams would be involved in the playoff mix such as the Cardinals or Marlins although both are further back than the rest of the pack this season. 

In the American League, in addition to the Red Sox and White Sox, a team like the Blue Jays or Athletics could be in the mix. They’re records may not be approximate to Boston and Chicago but it would be better if they knew there were more spots up for grabs. 

The reality is that September is seen a trial period for the grand majority of Major League teams. Rosters expand to 40 players and you have an array of players make their debut or essentially try out for a spot next season. It takes away from having teams go all out at the end versus just laying low and parking your season in. Baseball needs more markets involved while it tries to stay afloat against the National Football League in its final weeks. Having six teams in each league make it to the postseason would give more teams hope they can be in the Fall Classic. Since the league doesn’t have a salary cap it makes it hard for low market franchises to ever dream about October, yes, Pirates, Royals, and Nationals I’m talking to you and I hope Major League Baseball is listening too. 

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While some division races are winding down, others are just starting to heat up.

The Rockies, dead in the water two weeks ago, have ripped off 10 wins in a row and are now in the mix for both the Wild Card and NL West title.

Carlos Gonzalez continues to remind voters why he should be in the MVP conversation.

Troy Tulowitzki has jut finished a incredibly hot stretch as well. How hot? Well how does eight home-runs and 17 RBI in nine games sound?

The tandem are the reason the Rox find themselves within striking distance.

The Giants have been able to capitalize on the Padres’ massive slump and have tied them for first in the NL West. How will the Padres and their dismal offense respond?

The Reds, losers of seven out of ten, are allowing the Cardinals a chance to get back in the NL Central race. Yet St. Louis hasn’t been able to capitalize a whole lot, going 3-4 in the past week.

The Phillies have taken first place away from the Braves in the NL East. But with six games remaining between the two teams, that race is far from over.

The AL is lacking excitement at this point. The Rangers are in a very comfortable position in the AL West.

The Yanks and Rays have the AL East and Wild Card well in hand. And the Twins have opened up a six-game cushion on the White Sox.

As the season hits the final weeks, all of the questions about who will make the playoffs lie in the NL.

Begin Slideshow

Let’s take a look at some of the bigger stories from yesterday, including another surgery for Johan Santana and the return of two must-start shortstops:

Three Hot  

Returning Shortstops

Shortstop is not a deep position, so having both Jose Reyes and Elvis Andrus sitting out games is going to hurt (not to mention Jimmy Rollins injury woes).  Both, however, returned to their respective lineups in the leadoff spot last night. 

Reyes, always the spark plug of the Mets offense, went 1-5 with 1 RBI and 1 R.  Andrus, who apparently has been plagued by the hamstring problem for a while (which may help to explain why he had just 9 SB from June through August), went 0-6 in his return to the lineup.  Both players can be returned to fantasy lineups at this point.  

Colorado Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki

I know we just touched on him earlier in the week, but he is just too hot to ignore.  After going 3-3 with 2 HR, 3 RBI, and 4 R last night, he has now homered in three straight games and in six of his last eight.  Over that span he’s gone 13-31 with 8 HR, 15 RBI, and 14 R.  There’s no word for it but “unbelievable.” 

Toronto Blue Jays OF Jose Bautista

He just keeps going, doesn’t he?  He went 2-4 with 2 HR, 4 RBI, and 2 R last night, putting him at .266 with 46 HR, 110 RBI, and 95 R.  Could anyone have seen this coming?

Three Not  

New York Mets SP Johan Santana

The 2010 season now marks the third straight year that Santana has had to undergo surgery. 

In 2008 he had offseason surgery for a torn meniscus. 

In 2009, his season ended early to have bone chips removed from his left elbow. 

Now, his 2010 season is over because he has a torn anterior capsule in his left shoulder. 

While it is expected that he will be ready for spring training, it really is too early to tell, as he is still seeing doctors and getting information.  Shoulders are tricky and you just never know exactly what will be found when you go in to operate. 

Obviously, this will continue to develop and we’ll learn more in the upcoming days and weeks, but you cannot like the initial news in the least.  At this point, he’s going to be sliding down 2011 rankings, though we’ll know more soon enough.  

Texas Rangers SP C.J. Wilson

The past two starts have been awful, allowing 10 ER on 13 H and 7 BB, striking out 10 over 8.1 innings.  Having worked in relief the past few years, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him tiring down the stretch.  In fact, since 2006 he hadn’t worked more then 73.2 innings in a year, though he has now worked 180.0 innings in 2010.  He also enjoyed a little bit of luck (.262 BABIP entering last night), so at this point it is probably time to move on if you haven’t already.  

Boston Red Sox SP Clay Buchholz

Clearly, he just didn’t have it last night against the Oakland Athletics.  He went an inning plus, giving up five runs on five hits and four walks, striking out one.  It certainly was ugly, but it is just one start.  He hadn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a start since July 21, so just leave him in there and hope for a rebound.  His next start is in Seattle, so there’s certainly hope for that.

What are your thoughts on these stories?

Make sure to check out our extremely early 2011 rankings:

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops
• Outfielders
• Closers

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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It doesn’t matter who is on the mound when an offense puts up 13 runs.

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Let’s take a look at some of the bigger stories that developed yesterday: 

Three Hot

 Texas Rangers 2B Ian Kinsler

There was a lot to like from the Rangers last night, from their offensive explosion to Derek Holland (5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 8 K, W), who has a chance to emerge in the Rangers rotation not only for the final few weeks of 2010, but for 2011 as well. 

One of the most notable performances, however, was from Kinsler.  He went 2-5 with 1 HR, 1 RBI, 2 R, and 1 SB, doing a little bit of everything while hitting out of the leadoff spot in Elvis Andrus’ absence.  It was only his third game batting first in 2010, and he showed us just how dynamic of a player he can be when healthy.  Could he stick in the leadoff spot even when Andrus returns to the lineup?  It’s doubtful, but you never really know.  Still, seeing this type of performance gives us hope that he can be the type of player down the stretch that we have been waiting for all year long.

Colorado Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki

Wasn’t he supposed to be having problems with his power thanks to the wrist injury?  He hit another two home runs last night, giving him five home runs in his last six games.  In his last seven, he has 13 RBI.  We all know that he is one of the elite players in the game and has the potential to keep this hot stretch going for the final few weeks of the season.  Taking him early in your draft doesn’t look quite as bad now, does it?

St. Louis Cardinals OF Colby Rasmus

Since the drama unfolded between Rasmus and Tony La Russa, Rasmus has suddenly found himself in the lineup everyday.  Coincidence?  Who knows, but fantasy owners have to hope that he takes advantage of the opportunity that is now being awarded him.  He either does his thing and proves that he belongs to be a mainstay in the middle of the Cardinals lineup, or he struggles.  Over the last four games he’s gone 5-13 with 1 RBI and 2 R.  Time will tell if he can really turn it up, but fantasy owners have to relish this time and keep him active in all five-outfielder formats. 

Three Not

New York Yankees SS Derek Jeter

After going 0-4 yesterday, Jeter’s average fell to .262.  In fact, he hasn’t had a multi-hit game since August 21.  In that time he’s gone 8-61 (.131) with 1 HR and 3 RBI.  Yes, he’s still been able to score a few runs, but he clearly isn’t performing up to the standards fantasy owners have become accustomed to.  The struggles have stretched even further then that, however.  Since June 1 he’s gone 84-355, a .237 average.  It’s tough to move him to your bench, because you have to think that he’s going to wake up sooner or later.

Florida Marlins SP Josh Johnson

Josh Johnson was scratched from his scheduled start on Friday, and now the Miami Herald’s Clark Spencer is reporting that, “The Marlins have announced that Josh Johnson has right shoulder inflammation and a mid-back strain, but that there is no structural damage.” (Click here for the full post). 

While that would seem like good news, as Spencer points out, there is currently no word on when, or if, Johnson could take the mound again.  Considering where the Marlins are, there is a very real possibility that they shut him down for the season.  That certainly is not what fantasy owners want to hear, but start planning, just in case.

L.A. Dodgers SP Clayton Kershaw

According to mlb.com (click here for the article), the Los Angeles Dodgers will push Clayton Kershaw’s next start back to Tuesday in an effort to protect his arm.  Instead of pitching against the Astros on Saturday (John Ely will take this start), he will take on the Giants in San Francisco.  As of now, they are saying that there will be no other adjustments, but having thrown 183.1 innings and with the Dodgers more or less out of contention, we will need to watch this closely.  He’s a must start option, regardless, so simply adjust your roster plans for now.

What are your thoughts?

Make sure to check out our extremely early 2011 rankings:

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops
• Outfielders
• Closers

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Rockies just won’t quit.

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As the calendar turns to September, baseball races are really starting to heat up.

The NL Wild Card has a few possible candidates: the Phillies lead the Giants by two games and are 5.5 up on the fading Cardinals.

The Rockies find themselves 6.5 games out of the Wild Card lead after a seemingly season-killing, eight-game losing streak at the end of July. They are still 7.5 games out of the NL West, despite the Padres’ continued slide.

Yesterday’s gut-wrenching, 12-11 loss to the Phillies really hurts. Like, soap in both eyes hurt. But with 29 games to play, the Rockies will still be a player down the stretch run.

The Rockies have been able to tread water with injuries to Todd Helton, Troy Tulowitzki, Jeff Francis, Aaron Cook, Jorge De La Rosa, Manuel Corpas and Huston Street.

They have a Pirate-like road record of 26-42. The offense tends to go into hibernation outside of the friendly confines of Coors Field.

Their ace Ubaldo Jimenez hasn’t won a decision since August 4th despite allowing no more than three earned runs in his past seven starts. The flamethrower has taken it in stride, but people were talking about this guy winning 30 games in July; now he might not even reach 20!

The Rockies have had to deal with the aging of their local legend, Helton, who has been a force for the Rockies for over 10 years. But age is creeping up on him very quickly; Helton hit a paltry .246 before being placed on the DL in early July with a stiff back. The $17.7M dollar man only had two homers to that point.

Since coming off the DL in early August, Helton has improved dramatically.

The re-energized Helton has hit .307 while launching four bombs and knocking in 10 runs, making the offseason choice for Rockies’ management that much harder. Helton’s gargantuan contract runs through the ’11 campaign.

Tulo has returned to All-Star form after being sidelined for 33 games with a broken wrist. He was red hot in August with a .351 average and 16 RBI. His Gold-Glove-caliber defense has shined as well.

But the biggest reason the Rox aren’t completely buried is the one they call CarGo. Carlos Gonzalez has been an absolute monster for the Rockies this season. He is hitting a sizzling .331 with 31 home-runs and 93 ribbies.

He is in the top five of all three major categories in the NL. If it wasn’t for Joey Votto and Albert Pujols, CarGo would be the runaway choice for MVP. The five-tool star plays a magnificent left field and also has some speed, collecting 20 SBs on the year.

The Rockies have a history of late season magic; everybody remembers “Roxtober” of 2007, when they ripped off 14 wins in 15 games to sweep their way into the World Series. In 2009, the Rockies played nine games over .500 in September en route a Wild Card berth.

In both instances, the team struggled mightily throughout the spring and into the summer. But for whatever reason—depth, conditioning, concentration, or something else—the Rockies never give up till the bitter end.

Fast forward to this year and they find themselves in a eerily similar position. World beaters they are not, but the team has refused to fold.

Sure, it looks bleak for the Mile High City, but they are finally healthy again.

They have a set lineup featuring a ton of speed with Dexter Fowler and Eric Young Jr. at the top of the order. The rotation has been solid of late and a healthy Aaron Cook will be back next week. Catching the Phillies won’t be easy, but this team has as good a chance as any to give them all they can handle.

Recent history suggests that the Rockies may not be a team to count out just yet.

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The 2005 MLB Draft has brought in some of the youngest and greatest hitters of todays game. Not only hitters, but pitchers too.

The 2005 Draft has created a pool of young, power hitting, power pitching athletes that are some of the best in todays game.

Here is a look at some of these athletes that clubs took a chance on, and came into the bigs surprising everyone.

Begin Slideshow

When the Tampa Bay Rays opened the 2008 major league season, third baseman Evan Longoria was playing for the Durham Bulls in the Triple A International League.

It was the minor leagues for the Rays first choice in the 2006 draft, and was the third overall pick. Many people, including myself, suggested the Rays were trying to save themselves some money by delaying Longoria’s “arbitration clock” by sending him to the minors.

Isn’t the idea to try and win games? Longoria was the Rays best opportunity at third base to help them win, but was mired in Triple A for financial reasons.

But being mired lasted all of seven games and 25 at bats, before Longoria was promoted to the majors. The Rays were going to let the clock start early on their prize after all.

But even the Rays startled everyone by signing Longoria the next day to a six year, $17.5 million contract through 2013 including three club options for 2014-2016. The Rays bought out all of Longoria’s arbitration years and his first three free agent years with club options.

Based upon Longoria’s performance, the team has made out very well. Even though they gambled on an unproven young talent and are going to save a bunch of money over the long haul.

This buying out of a players early “control” years is a growing trend which began in the early-to-mid 1990’s by General Manager John Hart when he was with the Cleveland Indians. He signed up youngsters Kenny Lofton, Sandy Alomar, Jr., Carlos Baerga, plus Joey and Albert Belle to multi-year deals WHILE they were really good…and really young. 

For example, Lofton has a 7.7 WAR* in 1994 (shortened season due to strike), the highest in baseball that season and his WAR was 7.3 in 1993. He made only $925K that year and $1.925 million in 1995. His salary would have been much higher had Lofton actually gone to arbitration in 1995.

*That is the first time I used the WAR stat in any article ever. While I am not needing to be rushed to the hospital, I am still in shock. It was needed for reference on how good Lofton was those seasons. Don’t expect it all the time.

Hart needed to do this to keep together what he projected his core would be for many years at reasonable prices than what these players would receive through arbitration and early free agency. As a smaller market team, Hart reasoned the Indians had a smaller window to win.

Signing up young players is a great tactic for these small market** teams to use.

**I love the term small-market. With all these billionaire owners, they can afford to spend their OWN PERSONAL money on players. I don’t mean to spend frivolously big on free agents like you are Omar Minaya, but to spend to keep the players your organization develops.

Why then are there small markets when these guys have their own money they can spend. Before he died, Carl Pohlad of the Minnesota Twins was the richest owner in baseball but did not spend money. Lucky the Twins re-signed Kirby Puckett when Carl was alive, but I am not so sure he would have signed Joe Mauer to that contract last off season.

Should other small-market teams use the same ideas?

Of course, they should. They have to in order to compete with the so-called big boys of Boston, New York, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia.

But these big teams do the same thing.

The Red Sox signed Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia, and Kevin Youkilis to long term deals before even going to arbitration on Lester and Pedroia and after the first arbitration year for Youkilis. I fully expect them to extend Clay Buchholz after the 2011 season.

They want to see players perform for two or three seasons before they sign players longer term. This allows for any adjustment periods the league makes to the players after their rookie and sophomore seasons.

The Yankees also did that with Robinson Cano two seasons ago and even Derek Jeter, who was signed to a ten-year deal after his second arbitration year. Yankees would probably sign Phil Hughes to a multi-year deal, too, after 2011, buying out several arbitration years and maybe a free agent year or two.

Even the Philadelphia Phillies tied up their young guys Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard, who were tied up after their first arbitration years.

There is quite a bit of talk now about the MLB financial statements for several teams being made public. These statements put teams like Pittsburgh and Florida into bad light, and for once it was not about their on field records. They show that the teams have made tens of millions of dollars but have not put that much of that money into player salaries.

These teams need to start signing their young stars when they believe their young players are going to be well-above average for the long haul. This is tricky because if you jump too soon on a player, you could be left holding the bag at big dollars for very little in the way of results.

Similar to what Scott Kazmir and Nate McLouth have become.

But certain smaller-market teams have reaped the benefits of signing young talent early, like Milwaukee with Ryan Braun, Yovani Gallardo and Corey Hart, the Marlins with Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson; and the Mariners with Franklin Gutierrez and Felix Hernandez.

Other teams like the Braves with Brian McCann (and likely Jason Heyward soon), have done this.

The Pirates have a couple good, young talented ballplayers in Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutchen. Alvarez is signed through 2014 (including club options), but it would be good to spend some of that profit and also sign McCutchen after his first full season to a long-term commitment, saving long-term money.

The smaller-market teams need to decide who the players they want to keep. Not just “team” players who can be replaced cheaper through from their farm system, but players who already have been All-Stars.

And who they feel will continue to be All-Stars and league leaders, not league average.

McCutchen appears to be that type of player a team can take that risk.

Many other teams have major decisions to make.

Players like Wandy Rodriguez of the Astros, Dallas Braden and Trevor Cahill of the A’s, and Jair Jurrjens of the Braves need to be looked at longer term at below future-market rates. 

But the biggest task might fall to the Cincinnati Reds have to decide if Joey Votto (yes, of course!), Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto need to be locked up soon. They all are coming up on their arbitration years.

This would be a great move for the first-place Reds to sign all three, who have plenty of young players in the fold who could keep the Reds at the top of the NL Central standing for many years to come. Similar to what their in-state brethren, the Cleveland Indians, did almost 20 years ago.   

Most of the big market teams seem to like to get their players just before or a year after their first year of arbitration. 

I feel it might be better for the smaller-market teams to take a bigger risk by signing top guys earlier, like Longoria in Tampa and Troy Tulowitzki (his college teammate) in Colorado. The Rockies would be wise to lock up Carlos Gonzalez to a “Longoria type” deal this off season and keep the young slugger locked up in Colorado through age 30.

It sure worked for the Rays.

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In MLB, a sophomore slump, also refer to as sophomore jinx, is identified when a player is not able to live up to the standards set by their rookie season. 

Reasons to blame for the “slump” may be injury or lack of adjustments.

Pitchers seem to be more likely to regress because of fatigue. The innings pitched in their rookie season may have dramatically surpassed the prior season; think of the “Verducci Effect”.

A young hitter will have to succeed by making adjustments. As the league sees the player, more videos and scouting reports will be available. Success will be determined on how fast the hitter adjusts to the new pitches being thrown and the location.

But is this term overused by many or is this cliche warranted?

Are players susceptible to this “jinx?

To answer these questions, I reviewed the second year seasons of the top 90 rookies to enter the Major Leagues since 1995.

The number of players identified to have struggle in their season was 20 (or 22%). Approximately 50 players had similar seasons as their rookie campaign with the remaining 20 surpassing their first year totals.

Surprisingly the split was almost even between hitters and pitchers.

The 11 pitchers identified were:

1. Livan Hernandez (1998)

2. Jason Dickson (1998)

3. Kerry Wood (1999)

4. Rolando Arroyo (1999)

5. Jeff Zimmerman (2000)

6. Rick Ankiel (2001)

7. Rodrigo Lopez (2003)

8. Shingo Takatsu (2005)

9. Josh Johnson (2007)

10. JA Happ (2010)

11. Rick Porcello (2010)

What Was Identified:

Wood, Ankiel, Johnson, and Happ were injured in their second season. Probably due to being overused.

Josh Johnson is the only pitcher to fully bounce back to become an All-Star.

The nine hitters to make the list were:

1. Quilvio Veras (1996)

2. Todd Hollandsworth (1997)

3. Jose Cruz Jr (1998)

4. Travis Lee (1999)

5. Warren Morris (2000)

6. Bobby Crosby (2005)

7. Troy Tulowitzki (2008)

8. Geovany Soto (2009)

9. Chris Coghlan (2010)

What Was Identified:

Hollandsworth, Crosby, Soto, and Coghlan join Kerry Wood as the ROY winners to make this list.

As basically all bounced back to have productive years, Morris is identified as a “One Hit Wonder”. He is the one player who didn’t. Will Coghlan, Happ and Porcello join Morris.

Tulowitzki has bounced from his 2008 season to become the best shortstop in baseball.

The results of this review proves that an average of one top rookie suffers the “jinx”. So it proves that the label “sophomore slumps” may be a cliche, but cliches exist for a reason. 

The question that everyone should be asking, especially fantasy baseball owners, who will suffer the “slump” next year out this year’s rookie crop?

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