Kuzul

In years past we’ve seen plenty of pitchers sign big-time free-agent deals only to fizzle with their new teams. Names like Barry Zito and Mike Hampton come to mind when thinking of starters who didn’t live up their albatross contracts, and teams will be trying to avoid similar situations this offseason.

At 12:01 a.m ET on Tuesday, free agents will officially be able to sign with new teams, per MLB.com, setting the stage for the baseball hot stove that’s sure to heat up heading into the winter meetings on Dec. 9-12.

There is a notable crop of veteran starters on the market this winter, but teams have to be weary when handing out the big dollars for starters who could be on the downturn. Let’s take a look at some of the free-agent starting pitchers teams must avoid signing before a big contract evolves into a big problem.

Masahiro Tanaka

The 25-year-old Japanese righty might not technically be an MLB free agent yet, but he’s expected to be posted for bid by his club the Ratuken Eagles this offseason. Masahiro Tanaka‘s record of 30 consecutive unbeaten starts was snapped in Game 6 of the Japan Series against the Yomiuri Giants on Saturday, forcing Game 7 in the Japanese equivalent of the World Series.

Still, it does little to blemish the stellar regular season Tanaka had, as he went 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA in 212 innings this year. Given his age and accomplishments so far, it’s widely believed that Ratuken will receive a bid higher than the $51.7 million the Texas Rangers posted for the rights to negotiate with Yu Darvish in 2011. Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports even speculated the posting bid could be between $75 and $100 million, with an ensuing contract pushing the total upwards of $125 million.

There’s no doubting Tanaka‘s dominance this year, but comparable situations have happened in recent years with mixed results. When thinking of high-priced, marquee pitchers leaving Japan for MLB, Yu Darvish and Daisuke Matsuzaka serve as examples with different outcomes.

While Darvish has established himself as one of baseball’s elite pitchers during his two seasons in Texas, Matsuzaka has flamed out after two solid years with the Boston Red Sox in 2007-08.

So where does that leave Tanaka? No one will know until next spring, and that doesn’t seem like a smart $125 million bet.

Sure, he reportedly owns one of the best split-finger fastballs on Earth right now, but it seems like too big of a gamble for an unproven asset, no matter how talented he is. Teams would be better served to get consistent veterans like Bartolo Colon or Hiroki Kuroda for the short term while exploring other less risky avenues for the long term.

Ubaldo Jimenez

Ubaldo Jimenez picked a good time to recapture his form as an elite pitcher for the Cleveland Indians, as he dominated after the All-Star break just in time to boost his stock for free agency. The righty, who turns 30 in January, posted a 6-5 record, 1.82 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 100 strikeouts in 84 innings across 13 second-half starts.

As a result, Jimenez posted season-long numbers that included a 13-9 record and a 3.30 ERA. During his second-half run, Jimenez conjured up flashbacks of his dominant self during his days in Colorado, like when he went 19-8 with a 2.88 ERA in 2010.

But Jimenez has been plagued by inconsistency in the three seasons since, and perhaps it has something to do with the drop of velocity on his fastball. According to FanGraphs.com, Jimenez’s fastball averaged at about 96 miles per hour during his career year in 2010, but it dipped below 92 in 2013.

He’s not getting any younger and won’t be adding any more speed onto that fastball any time soon. It was encouraging to see Jimenez put together a nice stretch run this past season, but he hasn’t shown the ability to be consistent since losing his best stuff.

His marks of a 9-17 record with a 5.40 ERA in 2012, and even his subpar start to 2013, should be kept in mind at the negotiating table this winter. Jimenez will likely earn a nice payday to be a team’s No. 2 or 3 starter, but his inconsistency and troubles adjusting to life without his blazing fastball make him trouble down the line.

Ervin Santana

Much like Jimenez, Santana had a well-timed season for success in 2013. Santana turns 31 next month and has been hit-or-miss throughout his entire career.

But this past season he went 9-10 with a 3.24 ERA in 211 innings pitched, serving as a key member of the Kansas City Royals pitching staff that ranked first in the American League with a 3.45 team ERA.

If Santana’s track record is any indicator, however, he isn’t a smart bet to duplicate his success in 2014. Only once in his nine-year career has he been able to string together two straight seasons with sub-4.00 ERAs—in 2010 (3.92) and 2011 (3.38). In that same span, he’s posted three seasons with ERAs over 5.00.

Santana certainly has value in today’s game as an innings-eater, having topped the 210-inning mark in three out of the past four seasons, but his up-and-down career trend makes him one to stay away from in 2014. He’s still at the point of his career to command a healthy multiyear deal, but I suspect it will become a headache by the end of the agreement.

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Here’s what’ll go down in Cleveland once the season ends. The Indians will exercise Ubaldo Jimenez‘s $8 million club option. Jimenez will then exercise his right to decline, however, as stipulated in his contract.

It states that Jimenez could void the 2014 option if he was traded during the span of the contract, which he originally signed prior to the 2009 season while with the Rockies. The clause kicked in once he was traded to Cleveland in July 2011.

While the Indians are still undecided on whether they’ll offer the 29-year-old a $14 million qualifying offer, according to Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer—doing so would secure the team a draft choice if Jimenez departs, but they’d pay him $14 million on a one-year deal if he accepts—it’s a foregone conclusion that Jimenez will become a free agent and seek a long-term deal for big money.

Despite a mostly unimpressive showing with the Tribe—he had a 5.43 ERA over his first 51 starts with the team—Jimenez’ value has skyrocketed after an amazing career resurgence that began in late May.

Over the span of 23 starts, the right-hander posted a 2.41 ERA with 123 hits and 58 walks allowed to go along with 147 strikeouts in 138 innings pitched. He had trouble getting through six innings early in the run but appeared to be getting stronger as the season went along. 

While averaging close to seven innings per start, Jimenez pitched like an “ace” with a 1.72 ERA, 23 walks and 94 strikeouts in 78.1 innings pitched over his last 12 starts. With that kind of last impression, there’s no way he’s settling for a one-year, $14 million deal with the Tribe. 

He could easily match San Francisco Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum’s new two-year contract worth a reported $35 million. But it’s also likely he can get that same amount per season ($17.5 million) over four or five years.

Here are three teams that would be great fits for Jimenez. 

Colorado Rockies

The free-agent market is not a place the Rockies expect to find front-line starting pitchers. And the Rockies are exactly the team that free-agent pitchers try to avoid. Coors Field and pitchers usually aren’t a good match.

It’s not that pitchers don’t occasionally have success there. But it’s too risky for either side to want to find out if it will work out or not. 

Jimenez might be the rare exception, though, because the Rockies know him so well and because he’s had success pitching at their hitter’s haven of a ballpark. 

Originally signed by the team as a 17-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in 2001, Jimenez debuted late in 2006 and finally made it to the majors for good in the second half of 2007. Slowly but surely, he was developing into one of the better pitchers in the league.

From 2009-10, he posted a 34-20 record with a 3.17 ERA in 66 starts. Overall, he’s posted a 3.67 ERA in 419.2 career innings at Coors Field. He clearly wasn’t effected by it’s hitter-friendly conditions. 

So would he return so soon after just resurrecting his career?

My guess is that his confidence level is sky-high, and he feels every bit as good as he did when he was at his peak with the Rockies. They might have to go five years to convince him, but I think he’d be excited about a return to an organization where he had so much success.

A Rockies’ rotation with Jimenez has a chance to be very good…

1 Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP
2 Jorge De La Rosa, LHP
3 Jhoulys Chacin, RHP
4 Tyler Chatwood, RHP
5 Drew Pomeranz, LHP

New York Yankees

If the Yankees are going to have a chance to compete next season, they must open up the pocketbook and spend big in free agency. For a team that brings in so much revenue and consistently has one of the top, if not the top, payrolls in the game, that shouldn’t be a problem.

But as of last winter, the Yankees were reportedly leaning toward trimming their payroll beneath $189 million, which is the threshold for a team to pay the luxury tax.

But the state of the current roster, which might have more obvious holes than any team in baseball, is the reason they’ll revert to the Yankees way of thinking. They’ll worry less about how much they’re spending and more about how they’re going to build a champion next season.

And while a big part of that plan would be to re-sign second baseman Robinson Cano, it’s the starting rotation that needs the most work. CC Sabathia no longer resembles a front-line starter, and there’s no guarantee he can bounce back.

The Yankees have a few options on the free-agent market, including Matt Garza and Ervin Santana, but it’s Jimenez who might be the best fit to a lead a rotation that would likely include fellow countrymen Ivan Nova (pictured) and Michael Pineda.

Known for his strong work ethic, Jimenez could be the perfect mentor for the young Dominican duo, as well as two of their best prospects, catcher Gary Sanchez and pitcher Rafael De Paula. Both are also from the Dominican Republic and could reach New York by year two of Jimenez’s contract.

Even the good version of Jimenez isn’t enough to turn this rotation around—they’ll need at least one more starter. Here’s what they’d look like with just Jimenez added to the mix… 

1 Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP
2 CC Sabathia, LHP
3 Ivan Nova, RHP
4 David Phelps, RHP
5 Michael Pineda, RHP

Pittsburgh Pirates

Whatever the Pirates and pitching coach Ray Searage did to help Francisco Liriano and A.J. Burnett resurrect their careers once they arrived in Pittsburgh, it’s probably a pretty good selling point for any free-agent pitcher. Especially one like Jimenez who went from great to really bad almost overnight and couldn’t return to form for nearly two years. 

With Burnett’s salary off the books, the Bucs could either try to re-sign him, look for a short-term stopgap, replace him internally or make the bold move to acquire a front-line starter this winter.

Since they haven’t shown much interest in trading their best prospects, expect a free-agent signing rather than a trade if they go that route. And since Matt Garza and Ervin Santana would likely be out of their price range, Jimenez could certainly be a target for Pittsburgh as long as his price tag is reasonable. 

Investing long-term in a pitcher who might need to be “fixed” again is risky. But that’s also the reason he’ll probably come at a cheaper price than Garza or Santana. And if Liriano (pictured) continues his dominance and Jimenez shows up as the same pitcher he was over the last four months of 2013, the Bucs will be in a strong position to return to the postseason as legitimate World Series contenders.

Here’s a look at what that rotation might look like…

1 Francisco Liriano, LHP
2 Ubaldo Jimenez, RHP
3 Gerrit Cole, RHP
4 Wandy Rodriguez, LHP
5 Charlie Morton, RHP/Jeff Locke, LHP/Jameson Taillon, RHP 

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Despite a two-game losing streak, the Cleveland Indians find themselves just 1.5 games back of the fifth and final playoff spot in the American League. The Indians trail just three teams, those being the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays and Texas Rangers. The problem, though, is that the Indians will need to win games while relying on others to beat either New York, Tampa Bay or Texas.

However, for the purposes of this article, we’re going to assume that the Cleveland Indians make the postseason. In this case, we’ll assign them the second wild-card spot, as that is the most likely scenario in which they make the playoffs.

If the Indians take the fifth spot, and the rest of the standings hold the same, here’s how the American League playoff seeding would look:

1. Boston (East)
2. Oakland (West)
3. Detroit (Central)
4. Texas (WC)
5. Cleveland (WC)

This, being the most likely playoff scenario, would set up the Indians for an away game against the Rangers in a one-game playoff for the right to play Boston in the ALDS. The Indians would need to choose one starter to take on the Rangers, who would likely send Yu Darvish to the mound.

Runs are hard to come by against Darvish. The 27-year-old Cy Young Award candidate boasts a 12-8 record with a 2.84 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. He also averages 11.9 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.67 K/BB and 6.2 H/9.

For that reason alone, the Indians need to be careful who they select as their starter in the Wild Card Round. Beyond who the Indians will see on the hill as an offense, though, whoever they start in that game will face one of the most daunting offenses in all of baseball.

Take a look at these key offensive categories and where the Rangers rank both in the AL and baseball as a whole.

In addition to the stout offense the Rangers front office has put together, the team plays in a very, very hitter-friendly ballpark. To this point, The Ballpark at Arlington has surrendered a whopping 2.01 HR/G, with an average distance of 401.1 feet—according to hittrackeronline.com.

In a perfect world, Justin Masterson would take the hill for this matchup. The Indians ace has an impressive 1.45 GB/FB ratio in 2013 with a mark of 1.31 over the course of his career, and while ground balls play well in any stadium, they play especially well in Arlington.

Unfortunately for the Indians, though, Masterson is a huge liability at this juncture. The 28-year-old was pulled from his last start on Sept. 2 with a strained oblique and has been on the mend ever since.

According to MLB.com, Masterson had no hiccups in a recent throwing session—he played catch from 90 feet—but he is not yet ready to pitch in a game. The playoffs are right around the corner, and with the wild-card play-in game taking place on Oct. 2, there’s very little time for Masterson to properly rehab his ailing oblique.

For this reason, the Indians need to start Ubaldo Jimenez in the one-game playoff.

This extends beyond the injury concerns surrounding Masterson, though. The playoffs are all about momentum, and at the moment there may not be a hotter pitcher in all of baseball than Jimenez.

In nine post-All-Star break starts, Jimenez owns a 1.94 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP while averaging 10.2 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 2.86 K/BB and 7.3 H/9.

The chart below displays Jimenez splits over the first and second half of the MLB season.

Don’t let anybody tell you that Jimenez has been lucky in the season’s second half. Something has clicked for the former All-Star and it’s shown in his play over the latter half of the year.

Jimenez’s incredible turnaround is due largely in part to his improved ability to limit walks and miss bats. This improvement can be traced directly to an increase in velocity across all of his pitches.

This final chart shows the difference in the average velocity of Jimenez’s seven pitches between June and September of 2013—according to Brooksbaseball.net.

Jimenez has seen a stark rise in fastball velocity; however, it’s the difference in the velocity of his splitter that has been the most important.

A well-placed 92 mph fastball—Sept. 2012 velocity—is still a good pitch. However, the difference between an 83 mph splitter and an 86 mph one is the difference between that pitch breaking from mid-thigh to the knees and mid-thigh to the shins.

Jimenez finally has the out pitch he’s been missing for the past two seasons with the Indians and it’s shown in the uptick in his strikeout rate from 21.7 percent in the first half up to 27 percent in the second.

The Rangers are a patient team at the plate. As a team, they’ve struck out in just 17.1 percent of their plate appearances while walking at a 7.6 percent clip.

The Indians will need a pitcher on the mound capable of matching Darvish‘s strikeout potential while also being able to limit the amount of opposing baserunners.

Over his last nine starts, Jimenez has been as good as anybody. He’s gotten his strikeout rate up to an impressive 27 percent, while his walk and hit percentages have dipped to 9.0 and 19.3 percent, respectively.

To put how good he’s been in perspective over the second half, Darvish‘s percentages are as follows: 33.7 strikeout percentage, 9.8 walk percentage and 16.7 hit percentage.

Jimenez is the closest thing the Indians have to an ace right now, and they should utilize it in this one-game, winner-take-all scenario.

Stats come courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com—unless otherwise noted—and are current through play on Sept. 12, 2013.

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A team paying a pitcher $5 million for 180-200 innings gets more value for their money than one paying the same amount for 70 innings. So it stands to reason that so many teams are insisting pitchers stay in the rotation as long as their performance is tenable.

Unfortunately, this means many teams miss out on potential dominance from those pitchers over shorter stretches. For some, this is due to the restraint needed to stretch one’s effectiveness out over 100 pitches. While they may be dominant giving 100 percent, they can only give 80 percent to last that long.

For others, they have only two effective pitches, which is enough for one or two innings, but starters usually need three to turn over a lineup twice. These pitchers would be much better off used in the ‘pen, but of course, the value of raw innings pitched will keep them slaving away in the rotation.

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The Toronto Blue Jays have done a tremendous job remodeling their team into a playoff contender during the offseason.

No. Make that a World Series contender.

I may be getting a little ahead of myself, but the odds makers in Las Vegas have them pegged as the clear favorites.

What’s even more impressive: Almost every major player they have acquired this season is set to wear a Blue Jays uniform for at least a few years, except starting pitcher Josh Johnson. Johnson will make $13.75 million this season as his four-year contract comes to an end (originally signed by the Miami Marlins).

While Johnson will not be the “Ace” or opening day starter for the Blue Jays, he will play a vital role in the Jays success or failures this season.

But you have to wonder if Blue Jays General Manager Alex Anthopoulos wants to dish out the money to have him as a staple in the rotation for another couple of years, or if will he let him walk at the end of 2013.

Beyond this year, the Jays will have R.A. Dickey, Mark Bheurle, Brandon Morrow and Rickey Romero still in their rotation. Adding Johnson makes that one of the best—if not the best—in baseball. But  how much do the Blue Jays lose by taking him away?

I think that depends on who you  replace him with. There are plenty of options available to the Blue Jays in 2014.

Personally, while I think having him in the rotation will be amazing and fun to watch every fifth day, I don’t think future success beyond this year warrants giving him a Felix Hernandez-type contract. And while I don’t think Johnson will be able to get that kind of money ($175 million over 7 years) from anyone, there’s reason to believe he can get a hefty payday by testing the free-agent waters.

If the Blue Jays are willing to spend money and looking at locking up a guy long term they can always resign Johnson. The players expected to hit the free agent market provide some intrigue.

• Two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum: This is the same Lincecum the Jays could have had if they parted with Alex Rios in the infamous trade that wasn’t. How does that look now, J.P. Ricciardi?  While Lincecum was banished to the bullpen last year, I think that he has too much raw talent to not bounce back and be a very good starter once again. If he has another bad year, do the Jays look at getting him—hopefully, cheaper—than any other two-time Cy Young winner?

• Matt Garza and Ubaldo Jimenez: I link the two together because they are both pieces that wouldn’t bring to the table what Johnson brings, but would get the job done on the back end. If Rickey Romero bounces back to his 2011 form, do the Jays need a Josh Johnson, or would they prefer a Garza or Jimenez? I don’t think they would command anywhere near the same kind of money that Johnson would, even if both Garza and Jimenez have good years. They are steady veterans that give you a chance to win.

• Roy Halladay: Potentially, the Philadelphia Phillies pitcher could hit the market. While Doc has stated he wants to finish his career in Philadelphia with the Phillies, I think it would be a pretty classy move to bring him back to Toronto for a couple of years to be another veteran arm in a formidable rotation.

We also can’t forget about in-house options the Blue Jays have—all those guys on the farm that were looking at being possible hopefuls for this year’s rotation before AA’s wheeling and dealing. There are guys that will start at Triple AAA, Double AA or the disabled list that would have been given an extra look, and opportunity to make the big league club in April of 2013.

But because there are a number of veterans poised to slot into the rotation, this list of candidates gets some extra time to develop their game on the farm and, barring any injury, will stay there for the whole year and compete for that supposedly vacant spot in 2014.

• Chad Jenkins made his debut last year with the Jays. He posted a 1-3 record with a 4.50 ERA in 13 games, including three starts. Jenkins showed some promise last year, and would be most likely to be called up first in the event of an injury. Either he or J.A. Happ would get the chance to start, and I thought deserved a chance to start before the moves were made. I don’t think he figures into the team’s long term success, though, so he may not be an option to replace Johnson.

• Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchinson are coming off Tommy John surgery and will get an entire year and off-season to regain their arm strength. Both will be looking to find a spot on the big league roster when they return, and both have a legitimate case to make. Drabek was starting to mold into the pitcher the Blue Jays hoped he would be when they traded Halladay to get him. He was 4-7 with a 4.67 ERA and a WHIP of 1.60, and improving with every start. The 23-year-old Hutchinson was called up to the big league roster almost out of necessity after the first week or so into the season. In 11 starts, he went 5-3 with an ERA of 4.60 and 1.35 WHIP. He will be 23 this year and will hope to bounce back from a tough injury at a young age. TThese guys are probably the cheapest low risk/high reward options for the Jays in 2014.

Other names you can throw out there include Dustin McGowan, Aaron Sanchez, Roberto Osuna, Daniel Norris, Marcus Stroman, Deck McGuire and Adonys Cardona. With the exception of McGowan, it may be too soon to bring them up, but you never know how they may develop over the course of 2013.

But should injuries occur to the starting 5, some of these names may get a big league debut this season, and an extended look heading into 2014. As for McGowan, if he ever gets a lucky break and finds that his arm allows him to compete, I think the Jays will give him every chance to make the rotation.

It has happened a few times in the past where athletes perform at their best level when on their final contract year (A.J. Burnett for example threw 200 innings  went 18-10 with a 4.07 ERA and opted out, as his contract allowed after year three, his best season).

If Johnson looks like he is leaning towards cashing in on a big pay day on the market, then let him go out there and show the whole league why he deserves that money.

It’s debatable whether Johnson wants to pursue free agency. Shi Davedi  writes  in a recent article that free agency doesn’t really appeal to Johnson. While it could be something his agent told him to say, It could be true and he may want to be with the Jays for a lengthy period of time.

The Jays have a handful of options. I don’t think signing Johnson long term is an immediate need for this team.

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While Jeff Loria and the Miami Marlins have shed incredible amounts of payroll with a firesale that makes your local merchandise liquidation retailer look like a Nordstrom, other teams around the majors seem to be taking the offseason slowly to this point.

After finishing 68-94 in 2012 and doing nothing at the deadline to establish themselves as buyers or sellers, it is anyone’s guess as to what the Cleveland Indians will be doing with the current roster. While there have been rumors related to Asdrubal Cabrera or Shin-Soo Choo being traded, it is quite possible that the Tribe does nothing and focuses on trying to compete with the roster that they currently have.

While the pitching staff struggled in 2012, the Indians will still be led by Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez and Zach McAllister, if the club stands pat, fans will see some interesting names toeing the rubber at Progressive Field in 2013.

With Travis Hafner finally reaching free agency, the Indians will officially move away from anyone associated with the last generation of Indians’ success. Cabrera, Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Choo and Carlos Santana provide a little bit of hope, albeit with a lot of question marks around the rest of the field.

So, who will the Indians count on in 2013 if they don’t start making any moves? Surprisingly, there is a little bit of hope in the existing names. What can you expect from the players who fill up the remaining 25-man roster?

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On May 27, Ubaldo Jimenez had started 10 games for the Cleveland Indians in the 2012 season.

Of those ten games, five of them were quality starts and in the other five he allowed four or more runs. While Jimenez held a 5-4 record, his ERA was at a season high, 5.79.

In those 10 starts, Jimenez had a 33:42 K:BB over 56 innings. He also allowed 58 hits in those starts, ballooning his WHIP to 1.79.

Then, June started and while Jimenez is just 3-3 over his last seven starts, he has shown exactly what made him a huge acquisition from the Colorado Rockies at the 2011 MLB trade deadline.

Jimenez has thrown 46 innings, posted a 2.93 ERA, but, most importantly, Jimenez has a 44:16 K:BB and has allowed 38 hits, for a 1.17 WHIP.

Jimenez is throwing strikes and has turned back into the player who the Indians thought they were getting when they traded Drew Pomeranz and Alex White, two very good arms, to acquire the 28-year-old Dominican right-hander.

As the Indians head into the All-Star break and rumors have swirled about their interest in several players:

Shane Victorino – by Ken Rosenthal

Matt Garza – by Jon Paul Morosi

Chase Headley – by Jon Heyman

Carlos Quentin – by Buster Olney

While I have mentioned others in previous articles, particularly right-handed bats and pitchers like Ryan Dempster of the Chicago Cubs and Brandon McCarthy of the Oakland A’s, the Indians may have improved their rotation with the apparent divine intervention that has taken place with Ubaldo Jimenez and his ability to pitch efficiently in MLB.

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The Cleveland Indians acquired Ubaldo Jimenez at the trade deadline last season, trading away Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Joseph Gardner and Matt McBride for the Rockies ace. Jimenez picked up a lot of attention by winning 15 games in 2009 and striking out nearly 200 batters that season, only to have his notoriety taken to a whole new level in 2010.

2010 was the season that Jimenez was 15-1 with a 2.20 ERA…at the All-Star break. The second half of 2010 wasn’t anywhere near as great, but Jimenez was still a solid rotation anchor for the Colorado Rockies, going 4-7 with a 3.80 ERA.

On July 31, 2011, the Indians lost to the Kansas City Royals and were 2.5 games behind Detroit for first place. The Tribe would go on to finish the season at 80-82, 15 games behind the Tigers for first place in the AL Central. This is where the story begins for Jimenez, as his career has taken an odd turn since his arrival in Cleveland, but even moreso since the All-Star game in 2010.

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“I get no respect. The way my luck is running, if I were a politician, I’d be honest.”- Rodney Dangerfield

God love them, the Dolans finally caved to fan pressure and restructured Grady Sizemore, a move they almost certainly would have shunned when they purchased the team a decade earlier.

In a classic Hobson’s choice, the Indians could either pay Sizemore one tenth of their payroll for services he all but certainly won’t be able to render, or part fans with their most beloved player and in doing so, alienate the very supporters the club desperately needs to acquire new talent.

In order for the Indians to pull the trigger on acquisitions like the Ubaldo Jimenez deal last summer, fan support must re-assure ownership of future revenue. Nothing says “no future revenue,” like a disenchanted fan base, thinking “just when things started looking good, they cut my favorite player.” So, in a public relations move uncharacteristic of the typically crafty, dispassionate Dolans, Sizemore was retained, and promptly blew out his back.

That move demonstrates not only the Indians’ ownership’s commitment to their fans, but also their own personal motivation for owning the Indians: they love the team, and they’re lifelong fans themselves.

Many Tribe fans come into the 2012 season with renewed perspective, having seen the tribulations of small market baseball in the newly-released film version of Michael Lewis’ Moneyball: the Art of Winning at an Unfair Game. There’s something undeniably romantic about the notion of fearlessly attacking an opponent with several times the resources.

Now armed with some silver screen insight, Tribe fans can appreciate the intricacies and frustrations of balancing fan approval with financial sustainability.

Indians fans, and indeed all small market fans, always intuited that Major League Baseball grew increasingly fundamentally unfair, but now more than ever that unfairness has entrenched itself even within pop culture.

In a rare life lesson extended by professional sports, Tribe fans can plainly see that they reap what they sew with respect to the Indians: when games are well attended, the team springs for the Ubaldo Jimenezes, or the Kenny Loftons come August. If fans avoid the ballpark for years on end, the Tribe will take exponentially longer to rebuild — a reality enforced by the dysfunction of Major League Baseball, not the Indians organization’s unwillingness to engage in irresponsible business practices- i.e., spend more than they take in.

Fans shrilly call for the Indians to go all out to match the Tigers‘ assertiveness. They offer the ultimatum that the Dolans raise the payroll, or leave town. But the reality is, the Dolans have reincarnated the Indians into playoff contenders twice, and almost did it a third time last season.

Whether the Dolans or Randy “deep-pockets-in-a-revenue-sharing-league” Lerner owned the team, the stubborn fact remains that more Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, Cubs fans exist-yes, because they have a large market — but even in the early season they watch their teams more consistently than Indians fans.

Revenue for the big market teams would still exponentially exceed the Indians’ and Lerner would have to unsustainably operate the team at a loss. When fans insist a franchise’s ownership operate at a loss, they suggest a course which often leads to the kinds of situations Los Angeles Dodgers fans endured under Frank McCourt, who had big market support, or even worse: team relocation.

Though they throw stones at ownership and the league itself, Indians fans have slid a long way from their respectable die-hard status of the sellout crowd 1990’s. The Indians were in first place for half of the 2011 season, and still finished 24th in overall attendance.

The same fans calling for heads to roll clearly aren’t holding up their end of the bargain in a small market.

The St. Louis Cardinals, meanwhile provide a model of simultaneously committed management, as well as consistent fan support. The Cardinals failed to win a playoff game for four seasons from 2007-2010, missing the post season in three out of those four years.

But St. Louis, a small market franchise, never dropped out of the top ten in attendance. The Indians dropped out of the top ten in 2002, just one year after qualifying for the playoffs.

No surprise that while the Tribe has failed to get the job done, the Cards have collected two titles in the past decade in a small market. The question is, can a Cleveland fan base enthusiastic about conservative, smash mouth football, learn to appreciate conservative, well-managed baseball?

If we watch them, they will come.

The Indians have proven they can win in a small market. They’ve proven they can develop Cy Young, MVP type talent. In 2012 they will be poised to rise again. The question is, will the Wahoo faithful answer the call?

Will we buy the tickets, the requisite t-shirts, the weekend packages? Will the packed stadiums reassure management when the time comes to pursue that final piece with the unconditional support of a rabid, re-energized fan base behind them?

We’ve proven we can provide that support. We owned the record for consecutive sellouts not too long ago and if Tribe fans want a championship, to a significant degree their small market puts them in control their of own destiny.

In 2012, the time may come for us to say: ask not, what the Tribe can do for you, but what you can do for the Tribe. 

You can follow Brian on Twitter @StepanekButton

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It’s that time of year again in Major League Baseball.

Division leaders and Wild Card hopefuls dominate the headlines as fans across the nation begin to anticipate the excitement of October pennant chases. 

September is where legends cement their place, managers justify their contracts, role players previously shrouded in obscurity make their names known, MVPs and Cy Young winners bring home their hardware, headlines are stolen and franchise-crippling collapses are immortalized. 

The most exciting month of baseball’s regular season is where the pretenders and the contenders are finally separated as W’s, X’s, Y’s and Z’s begin to finalize the standings, granting a select few ball clubs the ever-so-elusive invitation to the sport’s most exclusive dance.

Lost in the hype, however, as disgruntled fans of hopeless teams begin to switch the channel over to football are their first glances at a brighter future. 

For those of us not lucky enough to construct our hopes around the boys in New York, Milwaukee, Texas, Arizona, Detroit or Philadelphia, September call-ups are all we’ve got left to give the tail end of the schedule some measure of relevance.

This is where the old Brooklyn Dodgers mantra of “wait till next year” becomes a battle cry, because unless your favored club is within a few games of a postseason berth, the future is your last resort.

Now, that’s not to say that next year’s prospects are looking too bright in every corner of Bud Selig’s empire.

In remote ball-playing wastelands, such as Houston, Texas and Baltimore, it’s going to take years of patience and good faith before the home team can even begin to see itself on the same page as the rest of its competition.

For these five clubs, however, grim outlooks need not be applied.

With the savvy dealing, creativity and patience of their front offices alongside the steady development of their promising talent on the farm, brighter days appear to be just on the horizon, merely awaiting a fresh 162 or two.

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