Kuzul

Just 24 hours after the Colorado Rockies set a franchise record with a nine-run ninth inning that was capped off by a Seth Smith three-run blast—the Rockies did it again.

In fact, when Chris Iannetta bombed the game-winning solo homer in the bottom of the ninth, it was the third straight game in a row Colorado won with a walk-off.

For the second night in a row, 33,000 fans came out to watch their Rockies at Coors Field. All of them stayed Wednesday night to secure the series against St. Louis. The Rockies are 10-1 against the Cardinals in the teams’ last 11 meetings, while outscoring the Redbirds by an astounding 38-11 from the seventh inning on.

For Colorado, it’s the third straight series win, and they’ve been the victors of four of five series overall. The Rockies are on fire, as they’ve gone 10-5 in their last 15 games, jumping in the standings and back into the headlines.

The point is, the Rox are Rollin’ and Denver has noticed.

Rockies’ fans have come out to the ballpark to support their team that is currently in second place of the NL best NL West—merely three games out of first place behind the Padres.

And all this success has come when Colorado’s injury list is a mile long.

Troy Tulowitzki, the Rockies’ best player on offense and defense, has been on the DL with a broken left wrist for nearly three weeks. Starter Brad Hawpe injured his ribs 10 days ago and the face of the franchise, Todd Helton, was placed on the 15-day DL.

Plus, starting pitcher Jorge De La Rosa hasn’t been able to pitch in months and closer Huston Street won his first game of the year Wednesday and has only had the opportunity for two saves so far.

Still, with the injury bug biting extremely hard, the Rockies have fought tough and strung together winning baseball without their best players.

Colorado is getting major production from fill-ins and others, like second baseman Clint Barmes on his 12-game hitting streak and Dexter Fowler, who’s hitting 12 for his last 25 at bats.

Everyone likes watching history and Rockies are making franchise history lately. With their wins Tuesday and Wednesday being the first ever comebacks of five-plus runs and they’ve gotten 12-plus hits in six straight games.

Colorado is currently one of the hottest teams in the MLB, and even though it seems crazy to say, they’re looking forward to the All Star break as well.

Ubaldo Jimenez, the Rockies’ phenomenal pitcher, will be on display even though he has been struggling of late and could use the rest. Likewise for most of the rest of the Rox, rest will be welcomed.

Still, Colorado’s baseball team is dominating right now and they look to continue to do so up to and after the All Star break.

And as they do, the Rockies are moving into prime position for a third playoff run in four years—which of course would set even more franchise history for this team that is becoming more and more special.

Just how special they can be is up to Jim Tracy and the rest of his rublin’ Rockies as they roll down the road to the postseason.

Rich Kurtzman is a Colorado State University Alumnus and a freelance journalist. Along with being the Denver Nuggets FC for bleacherreport.com, Kurtzman is the Denver Broncos FC for NFLTouchdown.com, the CSU Rams and Fort Collins Beer Bars Examiner for examiner.com and the Colorado/Utah Correspondent for stadiumjourney.com . 

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The MLB All-Star Lineup has garnered a variety of reactions, ranging from cheers and sighs of relief to whimpers and shrieks of disbelief.

When the 2010 MLB All-Star lineups were released, there were undoubtedly as many elated fans as there were bitter fans.

No matter where the stadium is located, fans maintain an unceasing allegiance to their favorite teams and players.

Being chosen to play in the All-Star game represents the ultimate recognition that fans, coaches, and players alike have observed, reveled in, and appreciated every moment of a player’s season thus far.

However, examining the all-stars chosen from the NL West has generated a surge of controversy over just who earned their position.

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Ubaldo Jimenez has been absolutely filthy through 16 starts this season, going 14-1 with a Bob Gibson-like 1.83 ERA. The 26-year-old flame thrower even tossed a no-hitter back on April 17 .

Likewise, Marlins’ starter Josh Johnson boasts a 1.83 ERA and 0.96 WHIP through 16 starts, but hasn’t gotten the luck or the run support that Jimenez has.

While Colorado’s ace has struggled in his last two starts, Johnson has continued to dominate.

After a closer look, it’s become obvious that Johnson has outdueled the N.L. Cy Young favorite through the first three months in nearly every major pitching category:

Side notes:

FIP (fielder independent pitching) is a stat that measures factors only the pitcher can control. This helps us understand how well a pitcher has pitched, regardless of the defense behind him.

xFIP (expected fielder independent pitching) is an experimental stat which adjusts FIP and “normalizes” home run totals. Because research has indicated that home runs are a result of fly balls allowed and home parks, xFIP can be used to measure a pitcher’s expected ERA based on the average number of homers allowed per fly ball. This is a better indicator of a pitcher’s future ERA.

Using these stats to evaluate these two pitchers, we can conclude that:

• Johnson (2.47 FIP) has been better than Jimenez (3.07) this season.
• Johnson (3.16 xFIP) should continue to out-pitch Jimenez (3.68 xFIP) in the future.

Even if you toss out Jimenez’s recent struggles, (which have accounted for 18 percent of his total hits allowed and 43 percent of his total earned runs allowed this season), you can still argue that Johnson has been just as good:

Taking it one step further, Johnson has clearly outperformed Jimenez in other pitching categories such as:

• O-Swing rate (percent of batter’s that swing at pitches off the plate)
• Contact rate (percent of contact made on all pitches)
• First-pitch strike rate (percent of first-pitch strikes thrown)
• Swinging strike rate (percent of pitches which result in a swinging strike)

In fact, Jimenez has been no more than an average pitcher by these standards, while Johnson ranks 17th, third, 12th, and second in these categories among qualified starters.

Now don’t get it twisted; I envy Ubaldo’s ridiculous pitching repertoire as much as the next guy. I refused to be blinded by win totals and ESPN, however, and therefore believe that Josh Johnson has been (and will continue to be) the better pitcher.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

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Ubaldo Jimenez has a great start to the 2010 campaign, where he has a 14-1 record to go along with a 1.83 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. It measures up against many of the great pitching starts to any individual season.

But how does it measure up against the start of one of the greatest pitching seasons of the modern era: The 22-9, 1.12 ERA, 0.853 WHIP, 258 ERA-plus of Bob Gibson’s 1968 campaign?

By the end of June, Gibson was a rather pedestrian 9-5, but his ERA was 1.14, and he already had lost games by scores of 1-0 and 2-0. The league ERA at the end of June was 2.93, so Gibson ERA-plus was around 257 after three months of work.

These figures are right in line with Gibson’s seasonal marks of 1.12 ERA and 258 ERA-plus. It speaks volumes on how Gibson was extremely consistent throughout that amazing season.

During that entire season, however, the Major Leagues had terrible hitters across the board. For example, only one American League batter, Carl Yastrzemski, hit over .300 (barely at .301), and very few batters in either league hit for power. Willie McCovey of the San Francisco Giants led the National League with 36 home runs and was the only NL player with over 100 RBI, racking up 105.

In 1968, the NL had a slash line of .243 BA/.300 OBP/.341 SLG/.641 OPS. Only one team, the Cincinnati Reds, had a team OPS over .700. The average runs scored per game that season in the NL was 3.43.

These were terrible offensive statistics.

The biggest factor was the size of the mound. In 1968, the mound was 15 inches high, but reduced to 10 inches beginning in 1969. But wasn’t the mound height 15 inches in the seasons prior to 1968?

Of course, they were 15 inches high since 1903 (sometimes higher), so why weren’t the ERAs well below 2.00, and near Gibson’s 1.12 ERA, in the preceding seasons?

Maybe the pitchers did not pitch as well. Pitchers do have different seasons all the time. Mechanical faults often lead to missing locations of pitches. This usually leads to more runs scored for the opposition.

But those great pitching seasons do come around from time to time,and the 1968 season was the post-war “Year of the Pitcher.” Of the 16 post-war (World War II) seasons which had sub-2.00 ERAs, Gibson, leading the way with the 1968 season, produced seven of them.

In the year of the pitcher, Hoot was by far the best.

By the end of June, Gibby had a .775 WHIP. In June alone, he had a 6-0 record, six complete games, a 0.50 ERA, and five consecutive shutouts. Does it matter that he was facing some anemic hitters. Why didn’t everyone in that era then perform like that?

Whereas Gibson was facing poor hitters, Jimenez is facing more potent lineups, with pretty much any hitter from 1-8 in the National League able to hit the ball over the fence at any time. 

During Jimenez’s great 2010 start, the Major Leagues are hitting at a slash rate of .259/.329/.405/734 OPS, much superior to the National League hitters of the 1968 season. Hitters today are much more advanced than their predecessors, with video clips, better ideas on hitting mechanics, a tighter strike zone, and that lower mound.

But despite the great 14-1 record thus far, Jimenez has a higher ERA than did Gibson through June at 1.83, and a higher WHIP at 1.053. His ERA-plus, which measures his performance against league average, is 246, lower than Gibson’s 257 through June.

Ubaldo’s ERA-plus has also significantly declined each of his last two starts: Two starts which have yielded a win and a no-decision, allowing 10 earned runs in 11.2 innings. His record in June is 4-0 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.439 WHIP.

Those last two numbers are far worse than league average of 4.11 ERA and 1.379 WHIP.

Gibson allowed more than three earned runs only twice in his 34 starts in 1968, one which was over 11 innings.

With his combination of complete games, five straight shutouts (48 straight scoreless innings) and extremely microscopic ERA of 1.14, Bob Gibson had the better three-month start to his 1968 season over Ubaldo Jimenez’s 2010 start.

And the best part is that Gibson kept up that pace through the season, while Jimenez has shown signs of mortality over his last couple starts.

Bob Gibson’s 1968 campaign was the best ever for a pitcher in the modern era, and we will likely be saying that for decades to come.

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With an 8-0 lead heading into the bottom of the sixth inning and Ubaldo Jimenez yet to give up a hit, it seemed like the Rockies would cruise to victory. That was hardly the case, as Colorado held on for a 10-6 victory.

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While a no-hitter is always impressive, they are starting to become “routine” this year. With the All-Star break just around the corner there have already been four no-hitters (two perfect games) so far this season. If it weren’t for the infamous call that cost Armando Galarraga his perfect game, 2010 would have five no-hitters and would be on its way towards the all-time record of seven in one season, which happened in 1990 and 1991.

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Strasburg has not walked a batter in three of his four starts. His strikeout to walk ratio sin those games: 31:0.

Despite having pitched well in all four of his outings, the Nationals have only won one of those games. The offense scored 14 runs his first two starts, but have scored just one run over his last two. The youngster is a big draw regardless; the Nationals have welcomed 112,553 fans to home games in which Strasburg started.

He will face Tim Hudson and the Braves on Monday, 7:10 ET, on ESPN2.

Jimenez Pitches Worst Game of the Season; Rockies Win on Giambi Walk-off Homer.

Ubaldo Jimenez pitched his worst game of the season a day after going home sick before Tuesday’s game. The Rockies staked Jimenez to an early 4-0 after three innings, but the Red Sox countered with two runs in the fourth and two in the sixth to give them a 6-5 lead that lasted until the ninth.

Daniel Nava, who hit a grand slam in his first major league at-bat earlier this season, demonstrated once more that he can hit at the major league level with two doubles and three RBIs off the best pitcher in the majors, raising his batting average to .382. Fellow outfielder Darnell McDonald drove in two runs with a home run in the sixth inning to give the Red Sox a 6-5 lead. Marco Scutaro singled in the remaining run in a game in which the Sawx’s 3-4-5 hitters didn’t drive in any.

Ian Stewart and Jason Giambi hit ninth inning home runs off Jonathan Paplebon to give the Rockies a 8-6 come-from-behind win.

Around the Diamond…

Kerry Wood blew his third save in eight chances after giving up a ninth inning walk-off two-run homer to Jimmy Rollins.The Phillies won 7-6. Wood’s ERA after the game: 7.98. The Marlins won their first game since Fredi Gonzalez was fired yesterday, 7-5 over the Orioles. The win moved them 6.5 games behind the first place Braves in the NL East.

Adam LaRoche drove in all five runs for the Diamondbacks, but the Yankees won the game 6-5 on a tenth inning home run by Curtis Granderson. For the Mets, knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (6-0) won his sixth consecutive game after pitching eight shutout innings to beat the Tigers, 5-0; he’s had only one winning season (2003, 9-8) in his eight major league seasons, but seems to have finally mastered the knuckleball in 2010.

Chris Carpenter (9-1) had won 51 games in his first three seasons with the Cardinals, but has only posted 26 wins in the last four, including the 2010 season. He showed again yesterday that he is back after defeating the Blue Jays 1-0.

The Rangers won their tenth game in a row with a 13-3 demolition of the Pirates behind a 17-hit attack that moved them 3.5 games up on the Angels in the AL West.

Carlos Quentin led the White Sox to their eighth consecutive win with two home runs and three RBIs, giving him three home runs and six RBIs for the first two games of their series with the Braves. Mark Buehrle took the 4-2 win for the White Sox for his third consecutive victory. The White Sox are now within two games of the Tigers and 3.5 games of the first place Twins in the AL Central. They are 13-2 in their last 15 games.

Cliff Lee (6-3) scattered nine hits in a complete game win over the Cubs, 8-1. Lee continued his pinpoint control with no walks, giving him a total of four for the year paired with 76 strikeouts. He has walked a batter in only three of his 11 starts.

The Cubs are now tied for third place with the Brewers and haven’t had a winning record all season. Starter Randy Wells was 3-0 on April 30, but hasn’t won since then and is now 3-6.

With ten games left until the 81-game halfway point, Ichiro Suzuki has 98 hits, putting him on track for another 200 hit season. He has been very consistent so far with a .344 average in April, a .336 average in May, and a .333 average in June-good for a .338 average for the year.

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Last year’s NL Cy Young competition was quite the horse race. Chris Carpenter, Tim Lincecum, and Adam Wainwright all received significant votes from the BBWAA as well as vocal and passionate support from fans.

While this year’s race is far from unanimous, there is one obvious favorite who would win hands-down if a vote was held today.

Need proof? Well, Bleacher Report’s MLB Featured Columnists had a vote last week, so you can see for yourself.

Using a scoring system identical to that of the BBWAA, we have determined an idea of not only the best pitcher in the NL, but how the other top arms rank. The top six vote-getters are featured here with commentary submitted by different writers. The full results of the voting are included as well.

Thanks to everyone who participated, and look for the AL results to be posted Wednesday!

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It is always fun to speculate who will make the once-again expanded All-Star Game roster. Since each team has to have at least one All-Star, here are the 30 who are deserving.

This list includes many young stars of the game who should be showcased to the whole nation, as well as some veterans that you might not expect to see at an All-Star Game.

Begin Slideshow

There probably isn’t a single baseball fan in the country who hasn’t heard Ubaldo Jimenez  called “lucky.”

For several weeks now, analysts have devoted countless hours and vast amounts of energy to debunking the theory that Jimenez is—as his 13-1 record and 1.15 ERA suggest—one of the best pitchers in the history of the game. And with good reason.

There’s no question Jimenez is a talented pitcher entering the prime of what will certainly be an impressive career. But he’s not an all-time great, and he’s definitely not the greatest of all time.

Jimenez’ 7.8 K/9 rate is impressive (though not legendary—he’s looking up at not only Tim Lincecum and Josh Johnson, but guys like Javier Vazquez and Felipe Paulino), but it’s not enough for us to turn a blind eye to his occasional control problems (3.2 BB/9). A 2.44 K/BB ratio is nothing to sneeze at, but he’s got nothing on Dan Haren (5.05), Roy Halladay (5.63), or the superhuman Cliff Lee (16.75).

As a result, Ubaldo’s FIP (Fielding-Independent Pitching—an estimate of what a pitcher’s ERA would be with a neutral defense, based solely on strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed) is an impressive but significantly less godlike 2.93. That’s nothing to sneeze at, and it’s the seventh-best mark in the game. But it’s more than two-and-a-half times his ridiculous 1.15 ERA.

And that’s before you consider Jimenez’s ludicrously low 3.8 percent HR/FB rate. That’s why his 3.61 xFIP (same as FIP, but with home runs allowed replaced by “expected” home runs allowed, based on the pitcher’s fly ball rate and the league average HR/FB rate) is significantly higher even than his FIP. And that’s normalized for a pitcher in a neutral park, not one who plays half his games at the launching pad of Coors Field.

Substitute his xFIP for his ERA and ignore the wins (naturally, he wouldn’t have as many if he gave up more runs) and you’ve got a questionable All-Star, not a unanimous Cy Young.

I don’t think that Jimenez really deserves an ERA approaching 4.00, but his true talent is probably a lot closer to his xFIP than his ERA.

So where is all this luck coming from?

The fishiest thing about Jimenez’s season so far is his 91.2 percent LOB rate. In other words, fewer than one out of every 11 baserunners he’s allowed have ended up crossing the plate. The discrepancy between his strand rate and the norm (72 percent) is greater than the overall range of qualified pitchers’ LOB rates in 2008.

It makes sense that a better pitcher would strand more runners; the better the pitcher, the better the chance of making an out, so the other team has fewer opportunities to score. But Jimenez’ 91.2 percent figure places his performance well outside the reach of logic and fully inside the realm of luck.

Consider the case of John Candelaria, whose 88.8 percent strand rate in 1977 stands as the closest anyone has come to pulling a Ubaldo over a full season since at least 1973. The year before that, his strand rate was 72.5 percent; the year after, it fell to 76.8 percent. Simply put, you can’t sustain a number like that for long unless you’re playing Xbox.

Then, of course, there is the issue of Jimenez’s BABIP. I’m a firm believer that pitchers have some degree of control over where and how hard the ball is hit. I wouldn’t think it noteworthy if Ubaldo’s hit rate had merely slipped to .290, or .280, maybe even .270. But if you think the ability to induce weak contact is the reason his hit rate stands at an historically low .239 mark, I’m going to have to stop you right there.

It takes a lot more than talent for a pitcher to sustain a hit rate that low for more than a few weeks. Since 1989, only one pitcher (Chris Young in 2006-7) has posted a hit rate at or below Jimenez’ current .239 mark over a full season without it ballooning 50 points or more the following year.

Now, some say that Jimenez’ hit rate is explained by the kind of contact he’s induced—his 13.8 percent line-drive rate is the third-lowest in the league, and his 54.9 percent groundball rate ranks fifth. But there’s no refuge in that argument, either.

Looking at tRA, a statistic similar to FIP but which also takes a pitcher’s batted-ball profile into account, Jimenez is expected to give up 3.09 runs per nine innings. That’s not a bad number by any stretch, but it’s not good enough to put Ubaldo in the history books.

So even if you assume that his low line drive and HR/FB rates are the product of sustainable skill and not felicitous chance (statements which many statheads would vociferously rebut), Jimenez could be expected to give up nearly three times as many runs as he is now if he had neutral luck.

There’s no question Ubaldo Jimenez is a good pitcher, or that his is an arm to watch for years to come. But once the winds of fortune stop blowing in from the Coors bleachers, no one will mistake him for the best pitcher in the game.

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