Kuzul

As the 2010 season unfolded, the Red Sox front office declared it was interested in re-signing soon-to-be-free-agents Adrian Beltre and Victor Martinez. And as the offseason began, General Manager Theo Epstein insisted retaining both players was one of the organization’s top priorities.

But actions speak louder than words. The Red Sox failed to make a substantive offer to either player and watched as both players departed for other destinations.

Back in November, I wrote that it was unlikely the Red Sox would make an earnest effort to re-sign either player (or infielder Felipe Lopez, a Type B free agent who remains unsigned) because they “will want the draft picks in what is expected to be a VERY deep 2011 draft.”

Not only will 2011 be a deep draft, but with anticipated changes to future drafts, it’s also expected to be the last draft in which teams like the Red Sox and Yankees will be able to load up on talent (by signing players for above-slot signing bonuses).

In retrospect, the Red Sox approach to Beltre and Martinez seemed an obvious strategy for Epstein and the Sox ownership. The Red Sox organization will receive two picks apiece for the loss of Beltre and Martinez, and another pick if (when) Lopez signs, in the June draft. [NOTE: Lopez was signed in September for the expressed purpose of obtaining an extra draft pick when he signs as a free agent).

Depending on what ultimately happens with free agent closer Rafael Soriano, they’ll likely get the first-round pick for the Tigers (#19 overall) and the Rangers (#26), plus two picks in the supplemental round that follows. They will receive a compensation-round pick for losing Lopez, when he signs elsewhere.

They traded three of their Top Ten prospects in exchange for former San Diego 1B Adrian Gonzalez, and surrendered their own first-round pick for signing LF Carl Crawford.

It is an interesting approach to building a team…

Would you rather have Beltre and Martinez and Kelly/Rizzo/Fuentes and a first-round pick in June, or Crawford and Gonzalez and six picks in the first two rounds of one of the deepest drafts in recent memory?

With the switch of Youkilis across the diamond, Gonzalez effectively replaces Beltre. He is younger and has proven to be a far more consistent run-producer than Beltre (who has had only a couple of decent years, both times in the final year of his contract). Texas gave Beltre five (or six) years at $80 MM (or $96 MM). I’ll take Gonzo…every day.

Crawford essentially replaces Martinez on the roster. He’ll bat third in the lineup and provide the club with outstanding defense. He is not a long-term answer to the team’s dilemma behind home plate, but he is an impact player both at the plate and in the field. Again, I’ll take the new guy.

Would you rather have the three traded prospects and the Sox’ first and second round picks in the upcoming draft, or a total of six picks in the first two rounds of the upcoming draft?

That question is much harder to answer and calls for a great deal of conjecture. The analysis is dependent on whether the Sox ultimately sign Gonzalez to a long-term contract extension (the supposition here is that they will). With that said, we know the following:

Casey Kelly was the Red Sox No. 1 prospect. He now calls the San Diego organization home. He has a tremendous amount of potential, but he is still young and he struggled mightily in Double-A ball last season.

He has been replaced as the team’s top pitching prospect by former LSU standout Anthony Ranaudo, a 6’7″ right-hander who has top-of-the-rotation potential and who was impressive in the Cape Cod League this past summer.

The Red Sox have Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Josh Beckett and John Lackey in the rotation for years to come, and Daisuke Matsuzaka in the rotation for the next couple of years (barring a trade). They also have Tim Wakefield waiting in the wings in case of injuries or struggles. To an extent, Kelly and Ranaudo were redundant commodities. Ranaudo made Kelly expendable.

Gonzalez made Rizzo (and Lars Anderson?) expendable… again, assuming they sign him to a long-term extension.

Fuentes is a decent prospect, but raw. They have a similar outfielder in Jacoby Ellsbury…and now they have added Carl Crawford. Because he was raw and his future could not be assured, he was expendable.

The ballclub will likely have two picks in the first round and two more in the supplemental round, meaning they should have four of the first 50 picks (+/-). It will have at least one more pick in the second round (and another compensation-round pick if and when Lopez signs elsewhere). Therefore, the club will have as many as five of the first 50 picks (+/-) and six of the first 75 picks (+/-) in the draft.

The first six players the Red Sox selected in last year’s draft are all numbered among the organization’s top 21 prospects: Ranaudo (#3), Kolbrin Vitek (#8), Brandon Workman (#15), Sean Coyle (#17), Garin Cecchini (#18) and Bryce Brentz (#21). If the organization is able to repeat those results in the upcoming draft, the strategy the front office employed this off-season will have been a resounding success.

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The Texas Rangers and Adrian Beltre have agreed to a five-year deal that will pay the former Sox 3B a guaranteed $80 million…the contract has a sixth year at $16 million (that will vest depending on the number of plate appearances Beltre makes in 2014/15). Well, it looks like agent Scott Boras did it again!

Beltre hit .321, with 28 HR and 102 RBI in his one season with the Red Sox last year. He led the American League in doubles (49) and posted a plus-10 in defensive runs saved. He also made the AL All-Star team.

But in spite of those numbers, the Beltre market was cool this off-season. Teams seemed to discount his performance in Boston due to the fact he has only put up monster numbers in his contract years, and he won’t have another contract year for five seasons.

He expected heated competition for his services this off-season, but a bidding war never materialized. He was (understandably) cool to an overture from Oakland…and it seemed he may have shot himself in the foot when the holidays came and went without a deal in place.

But Boras managed to pit the Los Angeles Angels and Rangers against one another… and in spite of the fact the Angels were reportedly only willing to go to $70 million, the agent managed to get the Angels to put $80 million in guaranteed money on the table (with another $16 million tied to the third baseman’s ABs).

It seems Texas may have been bidding against itself… and it says here the Rangers will live to regret this contract.

At least it’s not the Red Sox. Theo Epstein got a remarkable season out of Beltre for short money, and will now benefit from two top selections in the ’11 First-Year Player Draft as he heads off into the sunset.

Additionally, when the Beltre deal goes south on Texas, the competition in the A L West will have less money to work with. The rich get richer…

Of his deal with Texas, Beltre said: “We all know that the Rangers have a really good team. I want to win. The team is willing to do whatever it takes to get to the next step. That’s one of the factors in making my decision to come here easier.” Yeah, okay Adrian, it was reason #80,000,001.

He will receive $14 million in 2011, $15 million in 2012, $16 million in 2013, $17 million in 2014 and $18 million in 2015.

The sixth year of the deal is for $16 million in 2016, and can be voided by the Rangers if Beltre fails to have either 1,200 plate appearances in 2014 and 2015 combined, or 600 in 2015.

The deal means Beltre will be the club’s starting third baseman, with incumbent Michael Young shifting to DH and a super-utility role.

It will be the second time in three seasons Young has been asked to shift positions.

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Did Boston Red Sox GM Theo Epstein have a coupon to buy one underachieving Texas Rangers catcher and get one free?

Last year, the Red Sox traded for Jarrod Saltalamacchia at the July 31 trade deadline and now they have claimed Max Ramirez off of waivers from the Rangers. I wonder if they are going to target Taylor Teagarden next?

The Red Sox have been infatuated with Ramirez for some time now. They tried to trade for him last season, but that fell through when Mike Lowell became untradeable because of injury.

I guess Boston is obsessed with Ramirez’s ability to get on base like Saltalamacchia and are hoping he is a late bloomer.

Despite hitting just .217 in 140 Major League plate appearances, Ramirez does have a .343 OBP. In seven minor league seasons, he has a .396 OBP.

Look for Ramirez to start the year in Triple-A for Boston.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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People didn’t expect Edgar Martinez to earn election into the Hall of Fame today. The fact that he didn’t wasn’t a shock to anyone.

Some eyebrows were raised when his support dropped by a few votes, though.

The arguments for or against his election can be made over and over. We’d be blue in the face and likely see no one from either side sway to the other. We know the numbers, and we know the DH argument.

There’s a bigger problem in the room now, though. One that is likely to plague the election process for the next decade or longer.

Writers are forced to play games.

The members of the BBWAA who have a Hall of Fame vote are limited to 10 selections on their ballot. To exasperate the issue, voters are being faced with more questions about steroids, and the Hall of Fame has given them a vague set of rules to consider when casting their vote.

Some writers who would rather be safe than sorry in the case of Jeff Bagwell. With a loaded ballot this year, perhaps they’d rather spend one of their 10 votes elsewhere while also avoiding the steroid controversy.

Another writer voted for Tino Martinez and BJ Surhoff, but not Roberto Alomar or Bert Blyleven. The latter two were elected today. Surely, that writer doesn’t think Martinez and Surhoff are more deserving than Alomar and Blyleven, right?

Would we be wrong to assume that writer felt confident Alomar and Blyleven would get in, thus deciding to spend those votes elsewhere?

I believe the Hall of Fame has put these writers in an unfair position.

What if these games end up costing a guy his enshrinement? Fans would be angry, but remember that these voters are people, too. They are the ones with the burden to make a decision under these rules.

While I disagree with the stance some of them have to err on the side of caution, it is their right under the current format of the ballot rules.

They then face the dilemma of publishing their votes with reasoning or withholding that information. Either decision would come with backlash from the fans.

This is not court of law. Nor is it a body of congress. Therefore, we can’t expect the voters to abide by rules we’ve come to know in our government. They don’t have to see it as innocent until proven guilty and they don’t have to represent our feelings with their vote.

I don’t feel bad for the pressure put on all of the writers, though.

Dan Graziano of AOL Fanhouse chose not to vote for Jeff Bagwell, because he has suspicions. I could get into why I feel voters should not be playing the role of morality police or directly or indirectly influencing people to form a negative opinion of someone who has not been found guilty of anything.

I’m more concerned, though, with how the Hall of Fame may have unintentionally instilled an inflated sense of power into some of these writers.

In his piece a week ago, Graziano had this to say about his right to vote how he sees fit:

“I could withhold a vote because I don’t want people in the Hall of Fame who have blue eyes, or owned cats, or ever played on a Texas team. It’s my vote, and the only standards to which I am beholden are my own.”

The Hall of Fame’s rules are short and vague. Short enough, in fact, that you can see they do not allow a voter to leave a player off because of his eye color or domestic animal of choice. They ask the voters to consider how well the player performed, and how they acted on and off the field while a member of the baseball community.

Would Graziano really vote that way? I’d certainly hope not, but the mere fact that he’d publish a thought like that is concerning. Do either the Hall of Fame or BBWAA care that one of the gatekeepers to this hallowed institution finds that as acceptable, joke or not?

I would think voting for the Hall of Fame is an extreme honor that is taken very seriously. I have no doubt it is to many voters.

Others, though, and the Hall of Fame itself?

Seems like they need to revisit the policies and practices on who is left out in the cold.

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The Washington Nationals do not only face challenges from other teams in the MLB, but apparently they are facing challenges from other players as well. 

Washington showed great interest in many free agents this offseason.  Names such as Cliff Lee, Jorge De La Rosa, Zack Grienke and Derek Lee were all on the list of targets for the Nationals.  Each player however turned down general manager Mike Rizzo when talks arose. 

Rizzo explains the challenges in the same respect as the old which comes first analogy.

“It shows the difficulty of trying to build something,” Rizzo said. “The only thing that convinces players to come is winning. It’s the chicken and the egg. Which comes first? Do you win and then the players come, or do the players come and then you win?”

So which really does come first? 

This week, Derek Lee agreed to sign with the Baltimore Orioles and turned down the Nationals. The Nationals had a slightly better record than Baltimore last year, which leaves Rizzo puzzled.  The Nationals showed a clear interest in landing the powerful first baseman, but were again unsuccessful. 

While the Nat’s have landed free agents Jayson Werth, Adam Laroche, and Rick Ankiel, they are hardly what was expected in Washington. 

The Nationals are clearly building up a team of the future with prospects such as Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper signing long term contracts to begin their career in Washington.  However Rizzo had a goal this offseason to land big names which could help the team make a push for the playoffs this season. 

Washington has one big target left on the radar.  Reports show that the team is still very interested in Carl Pavano to add more depth to their pitching rotation.  However, another report yesterday conflicted this belief, and Washington looks to be missing out on another top free agent. 

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The Boston Red Sox have been linked with Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder for several seasons now, but with Boston’s recent acquisition of Adrian Gonzalez from San Diego, are they finished with their pursuit of Fielder?

Gonzalez is a first baseman too, and has a better glove than Fielder. With Kevin Youkilis likely to begin the 2011 season at third base, there is no room for Fielder at Fenway Park.

Fielder is a free agent after next season, and its almost certain that the Brewers will not be able to afford the rich contract he’s seeking. He has already turned down a multi year offer believed to be around $100 million, so the Brewers have been fielding offers for years but haven’t found a package of prospects they like.

Prince Fielder is a very good offensive player, and if his weight becomes a real problem he could always be a designated hitter for an American League team, so he is valuable player to many teams.

The New York Yankees do not have a need for a first baseman or third baseman, and most teams won’t pay over $100 for a designated hitter, even the Yankees.

Milwaukee needs to trade Fielder to replenish their farm system. They just gave up some solid young talent with the trade for Zach Greinke from Kansas City, who might not even be of much help in the future. Greinke had a great 2009, which was capped of with a Cy Young award, but he struggled mightily last season, and has struggled most of his career.

His troubles with anxiety problems limited his possible trade suitors to small market teams only, so Milwaukee was a good place for him because they have passionate fans but the city and media is not as demanding as major markets.

Some American League teams that should pursue Fielder are the Los Angeles Angels, the Minnesota Twins, and the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Angels could use a first baseman with power, even though Kendry Morales has shown offensive talent, he is coming off a serious injury.

The Twins have seen 2006 AL MVP Justin Morneau go through a rough battle with season ending injuries the past few seasons, and acquiring Fielder would assure them first base production for an entire year.

The Rays just lost Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford to free agency, and acquiring Fielder would help keep their lineup somewhat dangerous in a very competitive American League East division. Tampa also has the prospects to make a deal with Fielder happen.

Prince Fielder is a very good player, and will gain a lot of interest in free agency next winter, but it would suit him better to find his future home before the 2011 season, not after.

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The Chicago White Sox have completed most of their holiday shopping for the 2011 season. However, there may be one item Kenny Williams desires before he feels his stocking is full.

Has the bullpen situation been fully addressed?

I think the White Sox are at least a piece or two short in the relief corps. Right now, I see the following guys in the bullpen on opening day:

Tony Pena, RHP-our spot starter/long relief man.

Jesse Crain, RHP-7th/8th inning setup man.

Sergio Santos, RHP-6th/7th inning short relief.

Matt Thornton, LHP-setup/closer

Chris Sale, LHP-setup/closer

This is assuming that:

1.  The Sox get Pena signed or get an arbitration number they like.

2.  Sale doesn’t get put in the starting rotation this spring.

If the Sox had either Bobby Jenks or J.J. Putz in the closer’s role for 2011, I’d feel pretty good about our bullpen. As it is, this unit lacks an experienced closer.

The White Sox could go by committee in the ninth inning with Crain, Sale, Thornton, and Santos. Of course, the organization tried to do that with the DH spot last season. The result? Adam Dunn in the spot this year.

The Sox have a lot of guys that can and have filled the set up role, but no solid, established closer to get the final three outs. There don’t seem to be funds to go out and buy that closer, so Williams needs to solve the problem another way.

Chicago took a risk in signing Putz and was rewarded with a solid season from a guy coming back from injury. Can Williams roll the dice again and come up with a winner?

You could throw a guy like Gregory Infante into the relief mix and go with a younger crew, but that situation could quickly go south. I don’t think the pocketbook can bring in a name-type closer, so I think Williams has three choices.

Option One

Let Thornton pitch for a big payday next season as the closer, and add Infante to the pen. Thornton is 34, but has been healthy and could earn a big contract from someone if he proves he can get the job done in the ninth. That carrot in front of Thornton could benefit the White Sox in 2011. Crain and Sale set up Thornton, and you hope that Thornton has developed the mindset to finish games.

Option Two

Pick up a rehabbing arm, or a cheaper-type reliever. Take a chance on a guy like, say, Kyle Farnsworth/Arthur Rhodes/Aging Reliever X, on the cheap and hope for the best. 

Option Three

Trade for a steady closer, using Carlos Quentin as the bait, and let Crain and Thornton stay in their familiar roles.

I don’t think the White Sox bullpen is a finished work by any means. Kenny Williams has a lot of options to solidify the late innings for his club.

How he does it is unknown to us at this point, but it’s safe to say that the wheels are turning as we speak.

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Consider this piece more of a memoir than anything else.  My childhood with the Phillies was always adventurous but often ugly.  The Phillies were constantly a losing team and never broke the bank to go out and sign any big-name free agents.  At the time, we knew they weren’t the New York Yankees, nor were we asking them to be.  We just wanted to know that they had a desire to someday win.

This all changed in 2003 when they signed Jim Thome and closed out the Vet.  Then, in the following off-season, they added Billy Wagner to fill the void of closer and open Citizens Bank Park.  This told the fans that the Phillies wanted to win and apparently now had the funds to do so.  

A lot has changed since those “dog days.”  Philadelphia is now the place to play and you can somewhat thank Thome for helping put Philly on the map.  During the Phillies’ period of misery while at the Vet, you’d be lucky to see 20,000 people down at the ballpark.  My father and I would venture out to the 700 level of rightfield with our $7.00 General Admission tickets.  Those days were enjoyable but also bitter and painful.  Someday though, we knew that the Phillies would turn it around. 

Well, today that period of misery is long gone.  The Phillies are now a marquee team in baseball and have made the playoffs four years running.  They sell out just about every game as tickets are nearly impossible to come by.

They now have (on paper) one of the best rotations of all time.  Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels will be a formidable foursome for the Fightin’ Phils in 2011.  

Through their minor league system, they were able to develop loads of young talent.  This is a pool that includes Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Hamels, Jimmy Rollins and Dominic Brown among others.

Those sad days weren’t that long ago, but are now in the rear-view mirror.  Misery has been turned into all positives for the Phillies.  They bumped the Yankees off of a “Cliff” and are now looking to return to the World Series in 2011.  Ruben Amaro Jr. deserves a bulk of the praise for such moves as this may be the deepest Phils team ever.

For 14 years, Philadelphia suffered without a playoff appearance.  Now, they’re aiming for a fifth straight playoff appearance and third World Series berth.  What a turnaround for a team that was in the basement for so long.  

In four seasons, they’ve doubled the payroll of this team.  During that time, look at the success that they’ve enjoyed.  

They can actually compete financially with the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees.  That’s something I never thought we could say.     

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The Yankees have been doing a lot of waiting this offseason. They waited for Cliff Lee to choose his team. They waited for Derek Jeter to accept their offer. Then they stayed put a while too long and lost out on Zach Greinke. Now they await a decision from Andy Pettitte as to whether or not he will pitch in 2011. 

The Yankees starting rotation for 2011 may be in shambles if Pettitte chooses not to return. A few days ago, Brian Cashman said that he would not pressure Pettitte into making a decision quickly. Now there are reports surfacing that Mariano Rivera may be making a phone call to his long-time teammate to see if he can return to the mound in 2011. 

Cashman is optimistic about 2011 when he spoke, saying that he will bring back a 95-win team next year. Andy Pettitte definitely has to be in the equation for the Yankees to win 95 games next year. 

He excelled this year, but got hurt in the second half of the season. He was not as dominant, but he continued to show some consistency as a dominant veteran of the mound. 

The main factor surrounding the decision as to whether he will return will be money. Pettitte has expressed his desire to spend more time with his family in Texas, but the Yankees need him. 

In the past, the Yankees have been known to disrespect some of its aging stars by not offering so much money on the table. It happened to Bernie Williams and Joe Torre later on wrote about his unhappiness afterwards in The Yankee Years. 

Andy Pettitte has been a fan favorite for a long time in the Bronx, and seeing him leave due to financial unhappiness seems like the wrong way to end his story. The Yankees should reach into their pockets and put the right amount of money on the table, because the only perfect ending to Andy Pettitte’s story is one more World Series Championship. With Pettitte on the team, the ending seems possible.

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Move over Cliff Lee, because this move will make more of an impact than Lee going back to Philadelphia. Zack Greinke was dealt to the Milwaukee Brewers Sunday morning and this shifts the entire outlook of the National League.

The Brewers finished third in the National League Central last year, 14 games back of the Cincinnati Reds. Milwaukee was not light in hitting, but struggled mightily on the mound. They finished 12th in runs scored, but were 26th in ERA.

The ERA number should change drastically.

This move was made with the plan of revamping the starting rotation. Going into next season, the Brewers had Yovanni Gallardo (3.84 ERA, 200 Ks in 2010), Randy Wolf (4.17 ERA in 215 innings) and recently acquired Shaun Marcum (3.64 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in Toronto).

This makes them an immediate player in the NL Central and the National League as a whole. If you take a look at the divisions and really break down the rosters, there were only a few teams who could have competed.

In the West, it is San Francisco’s division to lose.

The Dodgers are picking up scraps from other teams and are in total dysfunction. Colorado cannot stay healthy and have to hope for another stellar season from Carlos Gonzalez to stay close.

The Diamondbacks and Padres have already mailed it in for 2011.

There is no legitimate contender for Philadelphia in the East.

The Mets are still trying to figure out their offense and have no stand out pitcher except for Johan Santana. Jason Bay needs to stay healthy.

Florida has a solid core of young players, but without Dan Uggla in the middle of the lineup, they are no match for anybody.

I wonder how much Bobby Cox retiring will affect the Braves. The more pressing issue is what they do for a closer.

Billy Wagner is retired and they may need a bullpen by committee at the beginning to figure that part out.

Atlanta’s offense is questionable as well. Sure, they have Brian McCann and Jason Heyward but after that, who?

Chipper Jones is a shell of himself. Matt Diaz is gone. Alex Gonzalez and Troy Glaus are another year older.

The Washington Nationals are not at this stage yet. They have a great deal of young talent, but they are not ready to make the leap yet, especially without Steven Strasburg.

This leaves the Central, which is now wide open.

It looks to be a three team race between the Brewers, Reds and the St. Louis Cardinals.

The young Reds team received their first taste of postseason baseball, only to be swept away by the Phillies. The Cardinals did not have enough gas in the tank to make a September run.

For the Reds, youth is on their side. Their young pitchers, Johnny Cueto and Edison Volquez, have another year of experience under their belts and for Volquez, hopefully a healthy season.

Joey Votto is one of the premier players in baseball.

The Cardinals have the best player on the planet in Albert Pujols and one of the best one-two punches in baseball (Carpenter and Wainwright) when healthy.

The Brewers now have front of the line pitchers to be able to matchup with the others in the division.

This is also a more complete team than the one with CC Sabathia in 2008. The rotation is deeper, the lineup is more mature and they have a solid guy at the end of the bullpen with John Axford (24 saves in 27 chances).

They will make a run at the playoffs and, if they get in, could be very dangerous.

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Once it was announced that Cliff Lee was signing with the Philadelphia Phillies, Zack Greinke began to receive the most attention among pitchers, with various teams attempting to acquire the 2009 Cy Young winner.

ESPN’s Buster Olney has reported that Greinke has been traded to the Milwaukee Brewers, early Sunday morning, for outfielder Lorenzo Cain, shortstop Alcides Escobar and pitching prospects Jake Odorizzi and Jeremy Jeffress.  Royals shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt is also expected to be involved in the trade, along with $2 million.

Greinke was drafted sixth overall in 2002 and won the AL Cy Young in 2009 after pitching to a 16-8 record with a 2.16 ERA and 242 strikeouts.  If this deal does indeed go through, the Brewers pitching rotation will consist of Randy Wolf, Chris Narveson, Yovani Gallardo, Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke.

The deal is not yet official, awaiting pending physicals and approval from commissioner Bud Selig.  

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