Kuzul

This offseason, the Reds let Ramon Hernandez test free agency. They also shipped highly-touted catching prospect Yasmani Grandal off to San Diego in the deal that brought Mat Latos to Cincinnati.

These factors led myself, and many other Reds fans, to believe that Devin Mesoraco would assume full-time catching duties in 2012.

Mesoraco has been on Baseball America’s Top 100 list for the past two seasons (16 in 2012 and 64 in 2011). Mesoraco struggled a bit in his first big-league call-up, but take into account that it was only 53 plate appearances across 18 games.

In order to decipher just how good Mesoraco will be, you’ll need to look at his minor league numbers and how he’s progressed from season to season.

In 2009, doubts began to sprout up about whether or not Mesoraco could turn into anything more than a back-up at the major league level.

Mesoraco worked quickly to stifle those doubts in 2010 when he went off. Mesoraco’s season catapulted him into the middle of the pack (No. 64) on Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects of 2011 list.

In 2011, Mesoraco’s consistency began to develop, and he posted a very solid season which earned him; a AAA All-Star game selection, the No. 12 spot on Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects of 2012 list, and a late-season call-up with the Reds. Mesoraco didn’t do much with that call-up, but he did display some decent pop (2 HR in 50 AB).

Mesoraco developed as catcher in those seasons as well. As a matter of fact, his defense and game-calling abilities have progressed every season since he was drafted in ’07.

In 2010, Mesoraco posted a .984 fielding percentage and a 7.42 range factor. He followed that season up in 2011 with a .986 fielding percentage and a 7.46 range factor. When compared to his first season in the rookie league (.975 fielding percentage and 7.11 range factor), you can see how far Mesoraco has come defensively.

Mesoraco is a stud at the plate. He shows the ability of a .280-plus hitter with 20-25 HR pop, and above average ability behind the plate. The 23 year old should work nicely in the Reds lineup for years to come.

My 2012 Projections: .279/.364/.480 with 17 HR, 58 runs scored and 60 RBI

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Last month I wrote a piece about Reds second base prospect Brodie Greene. This month, I’m bringing you another second baseman, Henry Rodriguez.

I’ll be the first to admit that I completely overlooked Rodriguez when I wrote that Brodie Greene could end up being Brandon Phillips’ replacement should he not return for the 2013 season. Had Rodriguez read that line, he might slap me silly.

Rodriguez came to the Reds in 2007, left for the Diamondbacks in 2008 and returned to the Reds in the same year (correct me if i have that wrong, his career path is pretty confusing). But in any event, Rodriguez came to the Reds at 17 years old and is now 22.

With five minor league seasons (two full seasons) under his belt, Henry Rodriguez should be looking to make the jump to the majors in the next few seasons and this is why.

Rodriguez hasn’t hit under .300 in the minors since his first season when he was just 17 years old. The last two years Rodriguez has worked between A, A+ and AA ball and has hit .305 in 2010 and .320 in 2011.

Not only can Rodriguez hit for a high average, he’s shown good power the last two seasons for a man who stands in at 5’10″150-pounds. In 2010 Rodriguez hit 14 HR and in 2011 he belted 13.

What makes Rodriguez an even more intriguing prospect is his blend of speed and power. Much like Brodie Greene, and even Brandon Phillips, Rodriguez has shown that he can knock the ball out of the park and wreak havoc on the base paths. In 2010 Rodriguez swiped 33 bases and in 2011 he swiped another 30.

The past two seasons complete stat lines look like this:

2010: .305/.333/.463 14 HR, 82 RBI, 78 runs scored with 33 stolen bases

2011: .320/.372/.469 13 HR, 81 RBI, 76 runs scored with 30 stolen bases

In those two seasons Rodriguez was 20 and 21 years old. Rodriguez has an oddly complete offensive game for a man who just recently turned 22.

Another reason Rodriguez should make the jump to the bigs before too long is that he’s a switch hitter. Switch hitting middle infielders are pretty rare and one with Rodriguez’ blend of speed and power are even more rare.

I only have three points of criticism when I look at Rodriguez and the first is his fielding.

In the last two seasons Rodriguez has posted fielding percentages of .972 and .964 at second base. Those aren’t really acceptable numbers but those are 20 and 21 year old seasons so I’m hopeful (as we all should be) that he will improve with age.

My second point of criticism is his bat speed from the left side of the field. Rodriguez has a very easy swing which may work for him but when you face guys throwing in the mid to upper 90s you need a quick bat.

My final point of criticism is in his free swinging nature. You’re going to go look at his stats and think I’m crazy because his strikeout totals are low. This is true, his strikeout totals are low over the last two years he’s played 257 games, made 1137 plate appearances and has struck out just 152 times. He’s striking out in just over 13 percent of his plate appearances which is quite low. 

If you watch video of Rodriguez though he tends to put himself in early holes by swinging at pitches well out of the zone. I don’t know whether he lacks discipline or the ability to differentiate between fastballs and off-speed pitches but he will need to improve on his pitch selection as he really doesn’t walk much (61 walks in those 1137 plate appearances).

In any event, these are things that improve greatly as a player matures. At 22 years old, Rodriguez might have one of the brightest futures of any prospect in the Reds minor league system. After recently being sent to AA Pensacola from Reds’ spring training, he will likely complement Didi Gregorius in the middle of the Blue Wahoo’s infield.

A year or two from now we could very well be contemplating the possibilities of Rodriguez starting for the Reds should Brandon Phillips leave Cincinnati.

All the stats I use in these articles are pulled from Baseball-Reference. They run a great website over there so be sure to go check them out!

Be sure to check out my other articles on young Reds prospects:

Neftali Soto

Daniel Corcino

Billy Hamilton

Robert Stephenson

Juan Francisco

Brodie Greene

Donald Lutz

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Boston Red Sox fans are wondering what Bobby Valentine’s Opening Day lineup is going to look like, and while the skipper isn’t talking yet, there is speculation that Jacoby Ellsbury will vacate the leadoff spot. If he does, he’ll be a tough No. 1 man to top.

The Sox were a major disappointment in 2011, but Ellsbury—already a proven hitter and two-time stolen base champ—emerged as a superstar. The fleet center fielder batted .321 with 32 homers, 39 steals and 105 RBI, great numbers for anybody but outstanding for someone who spent 144 of his 158 games atop the batting order.

Throw in his Gold Glove, and it’s no wonder Ells was runner-up to Justin Verlander in the MVP voting. 

How does Ellsbury’s season rank among the best by a Red Sox hitter batting primarily leadoff? Let’s take a look.  

Begin Slideshow

Last year at this time, Rick Peterson was getting ready to take a trip to Italy, not the place where one of pitching’s most innovative minds usually spend March. It was just the second time in more than 35 years that Peterson had been away from a baseball diamond for any substantial stretch of time. This year, although not back in a major league clubhouse full-time, the New Jersey resident is back in the game, with one of the most challenging and intriguing roles he has ever had, as director of pitching operations for the Baltimore Orioles under new General Manager Dan Duquette.

“It’s a great challenge to help Dan and Buck sculpt this vision of pitching form and analytics from the ground up, and I’m loving what is going to be a very interesting challenge for me at this stage of my career,” he recently said from spring training, where he is helping put in a new system-wide approach to pitching for the O’s.

Now startups in baseball are not strange to Peterson; he arrived both in Oakland and New York to organizations much in need of a pitching makeover, and his success in turning around the staffs of both the “Moneyball” A’s and then the Mets are well documented. His work also left its mark in Milwaukee, where two years ago he helped implement a system that has made John Axford into the closer that he is today for the Brewers. Still, the man who had had all that success did not have a Major League home last year, so Peterson spent the time with some off field pursuits, and continued to work in baseball with his company 3P Sports, as well as with Bloomberg Sports helping that company expand its position in the baseball analytic field as a consultant. The result of the year off the field was phenomenal in his growth in understanding the game.

“I had a rare perspective last year to look at pitching and mechanics and analytics as a whole due to my work with Bloomberg,” he said. “That work gave me the ability really for the first time in my career as a coach to look at many pitchers and what they were doing, and as a result I was able to stand back, improve on the ideas I had learned over the years, and now apply that to this brand new role with the Orioles.”

His organizational role with the Orioles will bring him to every level of the organization, implementing a plan that will develop and cultivate pitchers with a system of bio-mechanics and data that will complement all the physical tools young pitchers have. The first step is in spring training, where the Orioles have also brought in Dr. James Andrews and his team from the American Sports Medicine Institute to help us evaluate the mechanics of all the pitchers in the organization.

“By working with ASMI, we are creating a great footprint from which to build our programs,” he added. “It is the first time anyone is using this approach across the organization from such an early stage, so it is exciting and we think it will really give us a leg up on evaluation of all our pitchers and prospects going forward.”

That consistent approach is what Peterson thinks will help turn the fortunes of the young pitchers in the system, and it is one which will be brought and positioned with coaching staffs at every level.

“We will work with the coaches to make sure they understand and give their input into the program, and we think as it becomes successful, is one that will be replicated elsewhere,” Peterson said. “It is great that everyone from Mr. Angelos on down has bought into the system, and that we have people like Jim and Buck to let us establish the program.”

As far as the day-to-day goes in his new role, Peterson said he will be on the road evaluating pitching talent and prospects more than spending time in Baltimore.

“My role is to help in any way, and that really starts with the young guys we have in the system and the coaches working with them,” he said. “If there is a specific need for me to be in Baltimore that’s great, but my real role is in developing and implementing what will make us successful for the long run, that is what makes this such an exciting challenge.”

That challenge will of course also lie in how well Baltimore will be able to grow on the Major League level, in one of the deepest divisions in baseball. However, even with those challenges, Peterson, a baseball lifer, is glad to be back in and around the game full-time.

“Last year I got to go to Italy and the Caribbean and do some things with analytics I never had the chance to do, but this is my life and where I want to be, and where I think I can help make a difference,” he added. “Heck, I have come full circle since the Orioles drafted me in high school — it took me over 30 years to finally get here!”

Hopefully the journey back is a fruitful one for Peterson and the Orioles organization. 

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By a show of hands, how many of you have really heard of Donald Lutz prior to seeing this article?

If everyone is totally honest, I bet there are very few people with their hands raised right now.

Lutz is a 23-year-old prospect in the Reds’ minor league organization who’s showing signs of a bright future. Lutz was born in Watertown, NY, but signed as an international free agent from Germany in 2007. Since then, Lutz has played in the minors.

In 2007, as a 17-year-old, Lutz played in the German Baseball Bundesliga, the elite level of competition in Germany where the national team roster is set. After a poor showing in the first division, Lutz went off in the second with a .506 average, 39 RBI and six home runs in just 24 games.

Lutz was also a member of the 2008 European Under-21 championship. In that same year, he had a respectable showing for the Reds’ rookie team in the Gulf League.

His first three seasons were spent in rookie ball and playing abroad for the German National Team.

2011 was Lutz’s first full season in the minors, and it was impressive to say the least. In 123 games at A Dayton, Lutz recorded 506 plate appearances and 465 at-bats and went .301/.358/.492 with 140 hits (46 of which were for extra bases), 20 HR, 75 RBI and 85 runs scored.

That’s a great season for a 22-year-old and should land him in AA either at the start of this season or by at least the midway point.

The only problem with Lutz—if you can even call it a problem—is that he’s a first baseman. This has already proven to be a difficult position in the Reds system after shipping Yonder Alonso off this winter.

At 6’4″ and 230 pounds, my guess is that Lutz won’t be playing many more games in the outfield (he’s played about 17 total with the Reds).

With Neftali Soto and Joey Votto ahead of him, it’s tough to say what will happen with Lutz in the future. For now though, we can be content with watching him develop into a very solid player.

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Last year, among all the messes that the Dodgers organization was dealing with, one of them was their closer. 

The Dodgers opened the season with Broxton, who failed badly.  Then they tried several replacements like Kenley Jansen and others.  When Jansen hit the DL, they brought up Javy Guerra, and the rest is history. 

While I feel that Kenley Jansen is the future closer for the Dodgers, right now he is unreliable because of injury issues related to an irregular heart beat.  Jansen will be the setup man opening day.  In fact, the Dodgers bullpen is deep with veteran relief pitchers who should do well and keep Guerra in line for plenty of saves. 

Javy Guerra has limited experience as a closer. Last season, he notched 21 saves in 23 opportunities. He pitched in 47 games for the Dodgers in 2011, and that is the total for his career. 

Jumping on Javy Guerra from a fantasy perspective could be a bit dangerous, since he has yet to face normal closer adversary or close for an entire season.  That being said, the kid has good stuff. 

While Guerra did close in the minors, he has starter stuff.  He comes at hitters with a 95 MPH fastball, slider, changeup and curveball.  His out pitches are the changeup and curveball. 

While all of his pitches are average, he got enough to get three outs in the ninth.  His main problems will be control (3.47 BB/9) and being tested in stressful situations. 

Guerra walked 18 batters in less than 47 innings in 2011.  While that isn’t horrible, it’s not good either.  Also, he isn’t battle-tested, and 2012 will be another crazy year for the Dodgers, with the sale of the team yet to be completed.

The positives on Guerra are very good.  He did a great job closing in 2011 and has secured the job for 2012.  At 26, he is young and healthy and shouldn’t have any injury issues for the coming season.  He’s got a great track record through the minors and into the majors. 

If Guerra can stay focused and healthy, he will have a great season.  If not, Mattingly can put Jansen in at any time. 

Guerra will be a bargain no matter where he is drafted, so if you decide to draft him, make him a tier-three closer for your team and have two suitable closers already drafted.

The Closer Report 2012 Projections

35 Saves, 6 Wins, 2.78 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 62 Ks

2012 Fantasy Draft Analysis

Javy Guerra’s ADP is a staggering 283 (24th round).  He is a steal at that point. 

I would start targeting Guerra around Round 19 or 20.  If he is the best player available that meets your needs, draft him. 

Beware that with the craziness of the Dodgers, he might not be the closer come season’s end—either he will get traded or lose the job outright.

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We all do it. That little judge in our minds bangs the gavel and declares, “Guilty!” when the words “tested positive” flash across the computer screen. Case closed. We decry. We smirk. 

Mob rules.

Ryan Braun‘s suspension over a positive PED test was overturned by an arbitrator, and a ruckus has been raised by the mob as a result. The results did not sway the mob, as the Brewers slugger appears to have been exonerated on a mere technicality. 

It helps to begin by saying the arbitrator’s decision was not based on a simple technicality. Chain of custody is vital to preserve the integrity of collected samples, and the sample collector certainly did not follow protocol. Whether he put the sample in his refrigerator or left it sitting in a tupperware bin on his desk, the chain of custody was compromised and the tested sample could no longer be trusted.

Was the sample tampered with? Did the sample somehow degrade because of poor storage conditions? These are important questions that arise when the chain of custody is broken, hence the arbitrator’s ruling.

Skeptics mock Braun, saying he tested positive and that is the only truth in the matter. That is far from the truth, however, at least based on our knowledge of the situation. That we do not know what happened to his sample between collection and testing means we know squat about whether Braun tested positive or not. 

And what of Braun’s measurables and metrics? He claims he has not gained a single pound or decreased his base-running splits by one-tenth of a second. I will trust him on that count—with a grain of salt, of course—since I do not have access to that week-to-week data. I do have access to his career numbers, though, and here is how they pan out:

Setting aside that he has great career numbers, has Braun been taking PEDs throughout his five-year career and managing to get away with it this whole time? He has been consistent thus far in his career, and he is just now hitting his prime. I expect that to continue, even if he has an abnormally good or bad season because of this whole mess.

Is this proof he is not doping? No, it is purely circumstantial. Neither is an aberrant, morbidly positive test on a mishandled test sample proof that he is juicing, however. We are in the court of public opinion, not a federal court room, but there exists here more than a reasonable doubt.

Healthy skepticism is a good thing; without it, science would stagnate. This is not a question of science, however, not when it comes to judging a man guilty for a transgression nobody can ultimately prove. 

True, he may have simply beat the system and fooled the likes of me in the process. While it may be naive to take Braun on his word, though, I suppose I tend to see the sample cup as half full. At the very least, judgment has been reserved for another day.

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Continuing in Dugout Central’s annual pre-season ritual, I am going to present my predictions for the National League Heartland – er – Central Division in 2012. Last year saw an early-season surge by the generally hapless Pittsburgh Pirates, only to see them fall right back in the race where they’ve been for the better part of 20 seasons. July 17 saw Milwaukee Brewers pick-up Zack Greinke out-duel then-Cub Carlos Zambrano 2-0 to put the Brewers up half a game on the St. Louis Cardinals and 1.5 on Pittsburgh. The Brewers didn’t look back, going 41-17 from that game to win their first division title in 29 years. However, the last laugh was had by the Cardinals, who snuck into the wild card spot and defeated the Brewers in the NLCS en route to their NL-best 11^th World Championship.

There were some major shake-ups both in the front office and on the field, ensuring that 2012 would be an exciting new year for the division.

Chicago Cubs

2011: 71-91, 5th Place, 25 GB, Scored 4.04 R/G (8^th in NL), Allowed 4.67 R/G (14^th in NL)

Key Losses: Aramis Ramirez (3B), Carlos Pena (1B), Carlos Zambrano (SP)

Key Additions: David Dejesus (OF), Ian Stewart (3B), Paul Maholm (SP)

Why they could win it all: The bright spot on the Chicago Cubs last year was the left side of the infield. While Aramis Ramirez packed his bags and moved up north, the Cubs feature one of the bright young stars in the game in Starlin Castro. Just 21 years old, Castro led the National League in hits last year with 207. A little more patience on both sides of the ball (he had almost as many errors as walks) will result in him being one of the players that the Cubs can build around moving forward.

Why they could fail: The Cubs completely revamped their front office by bringing in Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer, both of whom have been successful executives at the big league level. However, the damage from the Hendry regime has been done. Alfonso Soriano is eating a tremendous amount of payroll to play poorly (just 2.0 WAR total since 2009), as is Carlos Zambrano (to play for Miami). A 1-year turn-around just won’t be possible with the mess left-over. However, a big payroll and smart people to manage it may mean good things for the Cubs in the future as it did for the Red Sox.

What to watch: Alfonso Soriano needs to go, as he is deadweight in most aspects of his game. His .289 OBP and lackluster outfield defense have made his 136 million dollar contract one of the worst in history. Look for the Cubs to exploit a possible fast start by Soriano and turn it into a trade to an AL team, where he could potentially serve as a platoon DH. The key won’t be the player acquired, but rather the amount of salary his new team will be willing to eat.

2012 Prediction: 66-96, 5^th place

Cincinnati Reds

2011: 79-83, 3^rd Place, Scored 4.54 R/G (2nd in NL), Allowed 4.44 R/G (12^th in NL)

Key Losses: Francisco Cordero (RP)Edgar Renteria (SS), Edinson Volquez (SP), Travis Wood (SP), Yonder Alonso (1B/OF)

Key Additions: Mat Latos (SP), Sean Marshall (RP), Ryan Madson (RP)

Why they could win it all: Remember that the Reds did win the division in 2010, posting over 90 wins before falling to Roy Halladay and the Phillies in the NLDS. The Reds did out-score their opponents on the year, and made a couple of nice pick-ups in Ryan Madson and Mat Latos. The offense is as potent as ever, with Joey Votto leading the charge as the best 1B in the division with Fielder and Pujols gone (though some may argue he had already reached that plateau).

Why they could fail: The Reds continue to employ Dusty Baker as their manager, so it’s hard to be shocked when they underperform their expected win-loss (not that a manager is necessarily responsible for that, but he can be). The rotation is a mess; Bronson Arroyo’s over the hill, and yet, he was the only Reds starter to make 30 starts last season, besides Mat Latos, recently acquired from the Padres. Latos has had good numbers in his first couple seasons, but he’s going from pitching half his games at the most pitcher-friendly park in the game to starting those games at one of the most hitter-friendly.

What to watch: Drew Stubbs was the leadoff hitter for most of the year. His league-worst 205 strikeouts wouldn’t be so alarming if he followed them up with actual on-base ability…which he does not (just a .321 OBP last year). Here’s a guy with some good tools, but he’s depriving Votto and Bruce of RBI opportunities by reaching so sparingly. Not saying he should be replaced on the team – his center field defense alone makes him worthwhile – but he shouldn’t lead-off.

2012 Prediction: 86-76, 3^rd place

Houston Astros

2011: 56-106, 6^th place, 40 GB, Scored 3.80 R/G (13^th in NL), Allowed 4.91 R/G (16^th in NL)

Key Losses: Jeff Keppinger (IF) Michael Bourn (OF), Hunter Pence (OF) [all mid-season last year]

Key Additions: Like, 100 prospects (including Jonathan Singleton and Jarred Cosart).

 Why they could win it all: Wandy Rodriguez was solid yet again last year; over the past three years, he has a very nice 118 ERA+ and 1.279 WHIP. Unfortunately, he’s no Old Hoss Radbourn, and as such, can’t start every game for the Astros next year. Also, he has about as much chance of being an Astro come the trading deadline as I do.

Why they could fail: They were 56-106, added nothing at the big league level, and will now be without Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn for the entire 2012 season, as opposed to just half of it. The team that once owned this division like nobody’s business in the Killer-B years is now poised to leave it for the American League West, where, on a brighter note, they will have the luxury of facing the Mariners 18 or so times a year. I’ll be nice and give them 55 wins…and I’m thinking that’s probably optimistic.  

What to watch: Carlos Lee is in the final year of a 6-year, 100 million dollar deal that I still don’t understand. Let’s see if he plays well enough to eek out another deal before hanging up his spikes or if El Caballo is happy being a rich guy with 350 career home runs.

2012 Prediction: 55-107, Last Place.

Milwaukee Brewers

2011: 96-66, 1^st Place,  Scored 4.45 R/G (5^th in NL), Allowed 3.94 R/G (6^th in NL)

Key Losses: Prince Fielder (1B), Casey McGehee (3B), Yuniesky Betancourt (SS), Takashi Saito (RP), LaTroy Hawkins (RP)

Key Additions: Aramis Ramirez (3B), Alex Gonzalez (SS), Jose Veras (RP), Norichika Aoki (OF)

Why they could win: The Brewers won the NL Central last season, and while they lost their superstar first baseman Prince Fielder, they patched up their two biggest holes – the left side of the infield. Despite winning 96 games last year, the Brewers featured the absolute worst third baseman and shortstop in the game. Aramis Ramirez has been a fixture in the division for the last decade with both the Pirates and Cubs, making two all-star teams. He won his first silver slugger last season, after hitting .306/.361/.510 with 26 home runs and 93 RBI for the hapless Cubs in 2011. Meanwhile Alex Gonzalez will take over at shortstop; he has roughly the same plate presence as Yuni Betancourt (horrific), but is a well-regarded fielder at the position and will certainly represent an upgrade. Finally, the Brewers have just received a major shot in the arm as their team leader and reigning NL MVP Ryan Braun has been cleared of all charges regarding a failed drug test last October.

Why they could fail: Losing Prince changes the landscape of this offense – Aramis Ramirez just isn’t going to be able to spell the same level of protection for Braun. Furthermore, there are just too many question marks. Will Mat Gamel be the hitter he was always projected to be, or will he be the hitter he has been in parts of 4 big league seasons? Will Randy Wolf continue to defy his peripherals? Will Greinke ever perform even close to the level he did in 2009? And what’s with this Aoki guy? He’s won 3 batting titles in Japan, but can we expect that to even remotely resemble what he does in the Majors? Lastly – does anyone think the Brewers will go 30-18 in 1-run games next season?

What to watch: Corey Hart is obviously going to be playing every day. That leaves two positions – either CF and RF or 1B and CF up for grabs. I say that because Hart can play 1^st and it isn’t clear that Mat Gamel can perform at the big league level. The Brewers have a solid center field platoon lined up with Nyjer Morgan (who hit over .300 last year) and Carlos Gomez (one of the best defenders in the game). But what about the Japanese batting champion, Aoki? Will Morgan show he can replicate his 2011 performance? All we know for sure is that Hart is playing every day and Gomez is only starting against southpaws and finding his ways into other games as a pinch runner and late-inning defensive replacement. All told, this makes for an incredible log-jam – and that’s before you start including all of Morgan’s alter-ego’s.

2012 Prediction: 87-75, 2^nd place

Pittsburgh Pirates

2011: 72-90, 4th place, 24 GB, Scored 3.77 R/G (14^th in NL), Allowed 4.40 R/G (11^th in NL)

Key Losses: Paul Maholm (SP), Ryan Ludwick (OF), Derrek Lee (1B), Jose Veras (RP)

Key Gains: AJ Burnett (SP), Erik Bedard (SP), Casey McGehee (3B), Rod Barajas (C), Clint Barmes (SS)

Why they could win: Gotta hand it to the Pirates – they made quite the turn-around last year. After winning just 57 games in 2010 (while placing last in both runs scored and runs allowed), the Pirates jumped out as contenders early-on and were in first place as late as July 25^th. They went just 19-43 from that point on, however, all while tacking on a pair of has-been veterans in an effort to put them over the top. There exists a fine young group of talented players on this team, however, led by Andrew McCutchen – who had a break-out first half and is one of the best players in the National League.

Why they might fail: Their first half made for a great story but it can be chalked up to flukiness. A lot of players came back down to Earth in a hurry, most of which were to be expected. All-star Kevin Correia struggled mightily in the 2^nd half, failing to qualify for the ERA title, not that his 4.79 mark would have gotten the job done. No Pittsburgh starter made it to 175 innings, and it’s highly unlikely that AJ Burnett will turn that around. No regular hit over .275 or OPS’d over .830 and only McCutchen was a measurable force of any kind. They’ve got a major talent on their hands in center field, but given the Pirates’ history, he’ll be fulfilling that potential in some place besides Pittsburgh.  

Things to watch: Joel Hanrahan emerged out of nowhere last season to be one of the National League’s premier relievers. However, like most closers, he was criminally mis-managed, as Clint Hurdle saved him only for save situations – including an 18-inning affair against the Braves that ended on a blown call. Has Hurdle learned his lesson? The fans at PNC better hope so.

2012 Prediction: 73-89, 4^th Place

St. Louis Cardinals

2011: World Series Champs, 90-72, 2^nd place, 6 GB, Scored 4.70 R/G (1^st in NL), Allowed 4.27  R/G (9^th in NL)

Key Losses: Albert Pujols (1B), Edwin Jackson (SP), Octavio Dotel (RP)

Key Gains: Carlos Beltran (OF), Adam Wainwright (SP)

Why they could win: The departure of one of the greatest players to ever play the game certainly could spell doom, but GM John Mozeliak did a fantastic job of overcoming that loss by signing future hall-of-famer Carlos Beltran to an affordable 2-year deal, locking up Lance Berkman and Chris Carpenter for 2 years before the season even ended, and bringing back spark-plug Rafael Furcal. They would be better off for 2012 with Albert Pujols, but 10 years at 24 million per season was just too much – and I think Mozeliak made the right call by thinking beyond 2012 (apparently, he doesn’t take Mayans too seriously). Holliday-Berkman-Beltran spell the best heart of the order in this division and the return of Adam Wainwright to the rotation means that the Cardinals have the pitching necessary to take them back to the post-season. They are my pick to win the division.

Why they could fail: They did undergo some changes, that’s for sure. Mike Matheny will take over for Tony LaRussa and the great pitching coach Dave Duncan will not be around for 2012, as he is helping his wife, Jeanine during her bout with cancer. And of course, Albert Pujols is no longer a Cardinal. This could have far-reaching effects beyond the .328/.420/.617, 42 HR, 126 RBI line he averaged in eleven years as a Cardinal. Losing Pujols means everyone gets pitched to differently, it means teams can approach situations differently, and it means that lesser players have to take up the slack. That’s not to hate on Berkman, Holliday, Beltran, or NLCS & World Series MVP David Freese – but there’s excellent ballplayers, and then there are transcendent ballplayers. Pujols was the latter.

What to watch: All eyes will be on Adam Wainwright, who returns this season after losing 2011 to Tommy John surgery. Wainwright placed top-3 in the last two Cy Young ballots, posting 11.9 WAR in that time span. He pitched over 230 innings in both years but is unlikely to reach 200 this season in his recovery. We’ll see how his new arm ligaments hold up.

2011 Prediction: 92-70, 1^st Place

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This is 100 percent “what if” thinking and theoretical, but it’s fun nonetheless.

The Orioles have been basement dwellers for, well, I’ve lost count on the number years. I just know the last time I saw them in the playoffs I was a sophomore in college with a full head of hair. Since then the O’s have played at a level somewhere in-between terrible and below average. Long gone are the good ol’ days when it was Baltimore and Toronto battling  tooth and nail. And how quickly did the country forget about the heated rivalry and brawls with the Yankees back in the ’80s and ’90s.

To be bad this long takes some luck—part of that luck is being in the AL East with the three-headed monster: New York, Boston and, its newest addition, Tampa Bay.

Let’s pretend for a moment that the Orioles were in National League East. How would they have fared over the past decade? My theory: The Orioles would have made the playoffs at least once or twice since 2000.

How the Math Works

1. The numbers say the AL is stronger. Since interleague play began in 1997, the American League has won 1,939 interleague games while the national League has won 1,773. Therefore, the American League is about 10 percent better.

Let’s add 10 percent improvement to their typical 68-win season: that gives the O’s 74 wins and 88 losses.

2. A three-headed monster vs. a one-headed monster. The Orioles have to play the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays more than any other team in Major League Baseball. In the NL East, it’s usually only one team per season playing up to that level—typically the Phillies, Mets or Braves. Let’s subtract 10 losses due to an easier division schedule.

Now the O’s are at 84 wins and 78 losses.

3. The DH effect. The Orioles have a reputation for picking up average designated hitters, or DHs who are past their prime. On the flip side, shaky Oriole pitching could definitely benefit from facing one less talented hitter per lineup.

With the Orioles still spending about the same amount on payroll, not having to include a DH on the roster frees up about $8 million that could go toward a decent pitcher or position player. Plus the pitching staff would give up a few less big hits. Let’s give the O’s four more wins.

The O’s are creeping to the top with 88 wins, 74 losses.

4. Payroll competition. The O’s have been willing to spend near or into the upper third of MLB teams. In the NL East, this would put the O’s on par with the Mets and Phillies. And with a more competitive season, perhaps ownership would be willing to spend a little more to get the job done. I’m giving the O’s three more wins due to the increased market value of their payroll.

The O’s now have 91 wins, 71 losses.

That’s good enough to make the playoffs, at least as a wild card.

Looking back over the Orioles’ rosters and records from the past decade, the best performing clubs were in 2004 (third place in the AL East with 78 wins) and 2005 (fourth place in the AL East with 74 wins). These were the days of Ponson, Palmeiro, Bedard, Javy Lopez and Brian Roberts in his prime. In my opinion one of these teams likely would have played into mid-October would they have played in the NL East versus the AL East.

How do you think the O’s would do with a different schedule, level of competition and no DH?

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Since it appears that the Tim Wakefield era in Boston may be nearing its last hours, I thought it might be an appropriate time to tip my hat to one of my favorite all-time Red Sox by sharing two stories that show what kind of guy he is away from the field.

Wakefield came to the Sox in the spring of 1995, when Monica Lewinsky was a new intern at the White House and Jose Canseco was taking aim at the Coke bottles atop the Green Monster. Everybody knows what Wake did that summer—starting his Boston career with a 14-1 mark and leading the Sox into the playoffs—and even when his stats were far less gaudy in the 17 years that followed, he was a very valuable guy to have around.

He started, closed, pitched long relief—whatever the team needed. In October of 2004, in the dismal final innings of Game 3 of the ALCS, I was among those shivering from behind the home dugout as Wake took one for the team and ate up precious innings during a 19-8 Yankees blowout. Those of us left when that game ended gave him a standing ovation, and by giving up his Game 4 start so others could rest, Tim paved the way for the eight straight wins that followed.

But you know all that stuff. Here’s what you might not know. A few months later, the World Series trophy made one of its first stops on its all-New England winter/spring 2005 tour at Dana-Farber Cancer Institute (DFCI). The Red Sox and Dana-Farber’s Jimmy Fund charity have a relationship going back nearly 60 years, which I’ve been lucky enough to be part of since ’99 as a DFCI staff member.

This was one of my greatest memories from that long tenure, for it was Wakefield who came to the hospital bearing the trophy.

I was one of his tour guides as we strode onto a back-entrance elevator, and a few minutes later emerged in the Jimmy Fund Clinic—surprising many pediatric cancer patients who were waiting for shots, chemotherapy, and other treatment.

For a few minutes, these kids got to forget all about their cancer as Wakefield walked around the room slowly and bent down so every patient—no matter how small—could get a good look at the trophy and his face.

I’ve seen dozens of celebrities work this same room, and most of them go through quickly with a smile and a wave. Tim took time to stop and make every child and parent feel like he really cared about them. The youngest kids didn’t even know who he was, but he was a big smiling man with a shiny trophy, so they were happy.

We expected the visit to end after this, but Wakefield asked if he could stay and visit with adult patients as well. This time, there were some tears among the smiles, as people who had waited 20, 30, 50 years or more for a Red Sox championship suddenly had a once-in-a-lifetime chance to thank one of the guys who helped make it happen. It certainly wasn’t how they expected their day at the hospital to go.

Our photographer took dozens of photos, of course, but as is our policy I stood out of the way no matter how tempting it was to sneak into the frame. After all, I had waited 37 years myself for a World Series title. Wake must have sensed this, for after he was finally done shaking hands and doling out hugs, he was about to breeze out to a waiting Town Car when he turned around and said, “Hey, do you want a picture?” He didn’t have to ask me twice, and just like that I had my own memento from that memorable morning.

Fast forward to the summer of 2008: The teenagers from the Jimmy Fund Clinic were taking their annual baseball road trip to see the Red Sox play away from Fenway—this time in Chicago’s U.S. Cellular Field. These trips are a chance for kids to share laughs and war stories with peers who know what they are going through, because they’re going through it as well. Baseball, like cancer, is a common bond.

As is usually the custom, the teens came out to the ballpark early to meet with some Sox players before batting practice. Wakefield was always one of the guys who made the most time for kids during these sessions, and this day was no exception. He walked over to the railing separating the stands from the field and started chatting with the young fans.

Suddenly, out of the corner of his eye, he saw a bald-headed kid with crutches hopping on one leg about 10 rows back. It was clear that this boy, who had lost a leg four months back due to bone cancer, was not going to be able to traverse down the steep stairs needed to meet Wakefield and his other heroes.

Again Tim did what came naturally—he vaulted over the railing into the stands, ran up the stairs, grabbed the grinning 15-year-old, and literally carried him down on his back to the front row so he could hang with his friends and the players. Wakefield went just 10-11 that summer, but that day he was Sandy Koufax and Walter Johnson wrapped into one.

“Every time I walk out to the mound and see that Jimmy Fund emblem on the Green Monster, I am reminded of the special role the team has played in helping fight cancer since Ted Williams was visiting with patients at Dana-Farber back in the 1950s,” Wake once told me. “I’m proud to be a part of it.” It certainly always showed.

So now it might all be over—with Wake stuck on 186 Red Sox wins, apparently destined to finish runner-up to Clemens and Cy Young (tied at 192) atop Boston’s all-time victory list. It’s frustrating to think that for many fans, their last memories of the ancient knuckleballer will be the long, painful march to his 200th career win last year, and his one unfortunate quote in nearly 20 years (one I am guessing may have been taken out of context anyway).

Instead, people should remember all the good days he had while representing Boston with class and guts, and know that when it came to delivering off the mound, Wake was in a league of his own.

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