Kuzul

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim made a significant move in the offseason by signing to what should be considered to be an overly inflated contract and an incredibly bone-headed move.

What makes this move bone-headed is the simple fact that the Angels not only gave up two wonderful players in Juan Rivera and Mike Napoli, but also the fact that the Halos are hoping Vernon Wells will duplicate his 2010 performance, which isn’t likely.

If THAT’S not enough, Wells is also owed a whopping $86 million over the next four years, and goes to a less hitter-friendly park in Angels Stadium of Anaheim than his old digs at Toronto’s Rogers Centre, making Wells’ season possibly look more arduous than the six-month repair fiasco on the Metrodome.

Enter in the fantasy factor.

Last year playing for the Blue Jays, Wells hit a solid .273/.331/.515 with 31 home runs (two shy of his career total of 33 back in 2003) while knocking in 88 RBI. This came after a three-year lull, mainly due to a broken wrist in 2008, and lingering after-effects in 2009.

But that was 2010.

Wells is 32 and is sure to take a downward turn in overall production, so the real issue is his new digs and age is sure to cause his fantasy value to dip—something you want to remember at draft time

Currently—depending on where you go really—you may find Wells ranked anywhere from 25th to 35th among outfielders which is a bit generous.

Top-50 outfielder, yes. Top-25 outfielder, certainly not!

Come check out more information on fantasy baseball sleepers, and fantasy baseball team analysis.

The moral of the story is this: I understand—as most do—anything is possible in baseball. But just because anything’s possible, doesn’t mean you forget about the improbable.

Wells is not going to duplicate his 2010 performance, which means (at draft time) you should treat him as a third OF at best—perhaps even a low-end DH player with potential since he won’t hurt you with strikeouts—but wasting a quality draft pick on Wells early would be a huge waste.

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With all the hype and hope the Blue Jays injected into their fans with their play of last year, there is one thing everyone is forgetting when looking forward to this year. The simple way of putting it: they are going to fail this year.

Generally, I’m one to stick to the team and players and project big years from all involved. However, it seems like the doom and gloom media and fans have all either had a change of heart with Anthopoulos’ steady hand at the helm, or they have all finally given up.

I have given myself the task of dampening your spirits and predicting craziness again after having been called nuts by friends for saying before last season started the Jays would have a winning record.

It is easy enough for anyone to say or predict Bautista won’t be able to match last year’s offensive output. Few players are able to match those stats the very next year or ever in their career.  Bautista should get a minimum of 30 home runs and I wouldn’t even be shocked if he might crack the 40 again this year. Nonetheless, he and the Jays are in for a rude wake-up call.

With all the talk of the Yankees and Rays losing valuable players and taking steps back this offseason, we have somehow been blinded into thinking that we will perform better than we did last year. I agree with everyone in saying the gap has been shortened between us and the Yanks and Rays.

The fact of the matter remains that we have lost significant key players this past offseason. In offense alone we have seen 70 HR walk out of our clubhouse in Wells, Overbay and Buck. Even with improved seasons by both Hill and Lind we will still have lost close to 50 longballs.

Offense aside, we have lost steady reliable pitchers—Marcum from the starting rotation and Tallet and Downs from the bullpen. I purposely leave out Gregg, who himself was effective for us last year with his 30-plus saves.

Marcum was a very steady arm who had even impressed Halladay when he was around. Downs was as good as any late-inning left-handed reliever around. Tallet was a very solid, proven long-inning relief pitcher. Three veteran arms all gone.

The Blue Jays have amazing upside and have a very good chance of meeting last year’s wins. To say they can challenge for a playoff spot this year is going a long way. 

The Red Sox had pretty well every starter they had out with an injury at some point during the season, and most of them for more than a week. They had more man games lost last year than some divisions had! Okay, that might be stretching it a bit, but you get the idea.

Boston, you must remember, despite all those injuries was still able to finish four games ahead of a very healthy Blue Jays squad. A repeat of the hurt the Red Sox experienced last year is unlikely; a safe bet would be Red Sox division champs by a landslide.

The Yanks and Rays, although they have taken steps back with their overall starters, are probably only as bad as the injured Red Sox of last year! I would find it hard to believe they have slipped any lower than 90 wins in a year.

The Jays have a very bright future. This year will be a big year for everyone involved, but with growing comes growing pains. This team will find that with taking a step forward toward having a sustainable playoff team for years to come they have given sacrificed this year to being no more than mediocre.

The Jays will finish where they were last year—in fourth with about 85 wins.     

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Alex Anthopoulos is a general manager not afraid to pull the trigger on any deal that may/could cause some to question his approach to rebuilding this club. 

In his short time at the helm, Anthopoulos has been at the forefront of some very elaborate dealings involving some of the biggest names in recent Blue Jays memory: Roy Halladay, Vernon Wells and, in some way, Shaun Marcum. 

Relinquishing the team of such character players that were the face of a franchise would devastate most clubs and their fans. Instead, the loss of such on-field leadership leads one to ponder: who is the leader in the clubhouse these days?

In 2010, you could say Shaun Marcum was the leader of the pitching staff with Wells behind the wheel as club representative. Now, players like Aaron Hill, Adam Lind, Ricky Romero and Jose Bautista are taking control of this team; “team” being the key word. 

All on that list are home grown talent with the exception of Bautista. Nevertheless, the Jays have a core—a nexus if you will—of budding young stars whose talent has not yet reached its full potential.

The difference in Toronto this year is a feeling of accomplishment and possibility.

With a refined focus on scouting and player development, the team is in a unique position to compete where division rivals are again playing the odds in the free agent market.

Countless others spend millions on established “names” and supposed stars labelled by the experts as the missing piece of the puzzle. 

Lucky for us, all signs point to the Jays reverting back to the golden age of baseball, worrying more about in-house matters than that of the green-eyed monster, to fulfil their tireless quest for a World Series championship.

Devon is the founder of The GM’s Perspective

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Alex Anthopolous took over the General Manager position of the Toronto Blue Jays on October 3, 2009 from the publicly ridiculed J.P. Ricciardi. 

He inherited a team in complete disarray; the Jays had failed to reach the postseason since 1993, the same year that they defeated the Phillies in the World Series. 

Anthopolous has plans to change that, and he plans for it to change sometime around 2012.

The Jays have made headlines since the hiring, due in large part to great free-agent signings and trades. 

Anthopolous began his flurry of transactions in November 2009 with the resigning of the sure-handed John McDonald. 

The next day, he signed veteran shortstop Alex Gonzalez.  Gonzalez proved to be worth more to the team later on in the season when the trade deadline was approaching.

In December, Anthopolous began to restock a depleted farm system.  He pulled off a major blockbuster, sending ace Roy Halladay to Philadelphia for three top prospects in catcher Travis d’Arnaud, right hander Kyle Drabek, and outfielder Michael Taylor. 

Taylor was then sent to Oakland for highly touted third base prospect Brett Wallace.  Wallace was later sent to the Astros for outfielder Anthony Gose. 

To cap off a busy day for Anthopolous, he signed veteran backstop John Buck to a one-year deal.

This was just the beginning, however. 

Later on in the month, the Jays sent fireballing reliever Brandon League to the Seattle Mariners for another fireballer, Brandon Morrow.  Morrow, although inconsistent, gave the Jays another young arm to add to their already young staff. 

After a quiet January, Anthopolous brought in veteran reliever Kevin Gregg to close games.  This capped off a busy first offseason for Anthopolous.

Early on in the 2010 season, Anthopolous signed Cuban shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria to a four-year, $10-million contract.  Hechavarria figures to be a large part of the Jays’ potential successes in 2012. 

Anthopolous acquired Fred Lewis from San Francisco a few days later.  Lewis became a spark plug at the top of the Jays lineup. 

He hit a modest .262 in 2010, with 8 homers, 36 RBIs, and 17 stolen bases.  Toronto chose to let him walk after the season, however, allowing him to sign with the Cincinnati Reds.

In July, Alex Gonzalez proved his true worth to Toronto.  He was sent to Atlanta for right hander Jo-Jo Reyes and shortstop Yunel Escobar. 

Escobar seemed to be wearing his welcome out in Atlanta, and Anthopolous took advantage of this by trading for him while his value was relatively low.  The youth movement in Toronto was continuing to take shape.

Anthopolous began his second offseason by acquiring catcher Miguel Olivo from Colorado and outfielder Rajai Davis from Oakland. 

Anthopolous completed two trades with the Brewers in as many days, first acquiring Carlos Villanueva in exchange for a player to be named later, and then trading ace Shaun Marcum for highly touted prospect Brett Lawrie.

2011 began with the low-risk, high-reward signing of relievers Octavio Dotel and Chad Cordero.  But, Anthopolous’ made his most genius move to date a little over a week ago. 

Anthopolous traded the highly overpaid and notorious free swinger Vernon Wells to the Angels for catcher Mike Napoli, a free swinger in his own right, and outfielder Juan Rivera.  Nobody is quite sure how he managed to unload such a contract, but he did it.

Napoli has since been shipped to Texas for reliever Frank Francisco.  Although many will say that Napoli would have had more value to Toronto than Francisco does, we have to remember:

Anthopolous essentially received Francisco and Rivera for Wells, a player who was holding the team back from spending big on free agents.  The money freed up by trading Wells will only help Anthopolous reach his goal.

The Jays figure to contend in the near future when prospects like Drabek, number 12 on MLB.com’s list of the Top 50 prospects, Gose, Hechavarria, and Lawrie, number 28 on the list, hit the majors. 

Without the genius of Alex Anthopolous, the Jays would not be in the position they are today, a position that has Jays fans waiting anxiously for 2012.   

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Oakland Athletics center fielder Coco Crisp has established himself as a top outfielder in the game of baseball. His tremendous speed and awareness makes him a perfect player to patrol the outfield.

On top of his defense, Crisp has established himself as a top leadoff man in the big leagues. His quick hands help him get on base and quick feet make him a threat to steal every time he reaches base.

When asked to name his top five favorite center fielders to watch, Crisp had a tough time coming up with a list.

“That’s kind of a loaded question,” he said. “You put a guy in centerfield and he’s supposed to be the best guy in the outfield. Going through all 30 teams — they all have solid outfielders.”

Despite having a little difficulty coming up with a Top 5 list, Crisp did name three that stood out to him.

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With Vernon Wells being traded over from the Blue Jays for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera, the instant reaction follows something like this:

“Why?”

To the average observer, Vernon Wells is just another overpaid outfielder who puts up above-average stats, but nothing worth the mighty contract he received.

The Angels made somewhat of a desperation move after losing out on both Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre.

Despite the enormous amount they’ll have to pay Wells, he should pan out to be an impact player in the middle of their lineup and in the outfield…right?

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In the midst of arguably the most disappointing offseason in franchise history, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim finally made a big move. The kind of move that could alter the course of the AL West in 2011.

So why isn’t anyone happy about it?

On Friday, the Angels sent Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera to Toronto in exchange for three-time All-Star, three-time Gold Glove winning, slugging center fielder Vernon Wells.

But before Wells could even step on a plane, fans on both sides took Twitter in utter shock and media members around the league exploded with incredulity.

Writers have called this deal everything from desperate to absolutely the wrong deal at the wrong time for the Angels. One outlet compared the Angels’ acquisition of Wells to the deal that Barry Zito took from the San Francisco Giants.

Really? Someone out there thinks the trade is that bad?

It is simply unbelievable that so many could lambaste Angels management for its timid approach to a critical offseason, and then decry perhaps the best move the team could have made given the options left on the board.

Wells is not the player most had in mind when owner Arte Moreno publicly announced his commitment to improving his club. With gaping holes at third base, left field, and in the bullpen, other names seemed more likely.

Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre were all but future Angels at different points this offseason, but when money and contract length climbed too high, Moreno and general manager Tony Reagins backed off.

It happened. We’re not happy about it. It’s time to get over it.

Reagins did. In fact, he went out into an anorexic market, among the fiery criticism of fans and media members, and made the best deal he could find. All he had to give up was an under-performing outfielder and an expendable catcher.

Now he faces a whole new barrage of written wrath, but this time it is entirely unfounded.

The main gripe seems to be Wells’ contract. He is owed $23 million this season, and $21 million each of the following three years. That’s an $86 million investment, nearly as much as Crawford will earn from the Red Sox over the same time period.

So why didn’t the Angels pony up the dough for the player they originally wanted? Because Crawford’s deal extends three years beyond what Wells is signed for.

Between 2015-2017, the Angels will save roughly $65 million they would have otherwise owed a player in his mid-30’s whose impact is based entirely around speed. Boston is paying Crawford for his services now, not later.

The Angels are also overpaying their new outfielder, but as Reagins said, Wells’ contract is “tolerable” given it’s comparatively shorter length.

In the meantime, the Angels get a player who produces more runs on average than either Crawford or Beltre. Last year, Wells belted 31 home runs and knocked in 88 RBI, his highest totals since 2006.

They get a player who answers the lack of power in the Angels lineup, which struggled mightily to replace Kendry Morales after a broken leg ended his season. Napoli managed to lead the team with a career high 26 homers, but guys like Rivera, Torii Hunter, and Hideki Matsui couldn’t answer the call.

They get a player who, at 32, is still younger than any of the Opening Day starting outfielders in Anaheim. Rivera, Hunter, Bobby Abreu are all entering their mid-30’s or later, and it’s starting to show. Hunter, arguably one of the best defensive center fielders of all time, fell so far he was forced into right field.

They get a player who brings both speed and experience to what could be one of the top defensive outfields in the game.

If Peter Bourjos locks down the center field job in Spring, Wells would slide to left field, where his career could improve considerably, given the shift to a natural grass surface and the diminished area he would have to cover.

And let’s not forget, Wells is considered one of the best clubhouse guys in the game today. Attitude goes a long way to improving a ball club, especially a respectful organization like the Angels, and Wells is ready to do his part to bring a winning mentality to Anaheim.

“In Toronto, you’re hoping to contend. Here, you’re expecting to win,” Wells said during his official introduction on Thursday.

The Angels have made mistakes in the past with overpaying players or taking on bad contracts. But Wells is not Gary Matthews, Jr. He’s not Scott Kazmir. He is a proven talent who brings what the Angels need to win.

Crawford’s game might’ve been a better fit in Anaheim. Beltre’s defense may have done more to prevent runs overall. But money and time blocked their admission through Anaheim’s gates.

Wells is the right player at the right time for these Angels. His contract is not for anyone but Moreno to worry about.

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In a deal that sent shock waves through the baseball community last weekend, the Toronto Blue Jays sent Vernon Wells and his monstrous contract to the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera.

While the Angels inexplicably handcuffed themselves with one of the worst contracts in baseball history, it’s not relevant to fantasy baseball. In fact, we don’t even care about Wells’ declining defense. All we really want to know is how his bat will fit into the Angels lineup.

2010 was a fountain-of-youth type season for the now 32-year-old Wells, as he blasted 31 HRs for just the second time in his career after posting home run totals of 16, 20 and 15 in the three seasons prior to last.

His batting average, which has been all over the map in recent seasons (.245, .300, .260) checked in at .273 in 2010, just a few points shy of his .280 career batting average.

Even his line drive and flyball rates have been up and down in recent seasons, making it difficult to find any patterns that might explain his sudden power resurgence.

According to Hit Tracker Online, however, 32 percent of Wells’ HRs qualified as “just enough” last season, a mark slightly above league average. All things equal in 2011, fantasy managers should expect a small regression in Wells’ home run total.

Unfortunately for Wells, things are no longer equal.

With last weekend’s trade, Wells moves from baseball’s fourth most home run-friendly park (Rogers Centre) to the eighth least home run-friendly park (Angel Stadium of Anaheim) according to ESPN’s MLB park factors.

This trade does, however land Wells in a more fantasy-friendly lineup. Instead of being sandwiched between Jose Bautista and Adam Lind, Wells now finds himself in a lineup with speedsters Erick Aybar and Peter Bourjos and run producers Torii Hunter, Kendry Morales and Bobby Abreu. This probably won’t help Wells blast 30 HRs again, but it will likely aid his run-scoring and run-producing opportunities.

Wells won’t blow you away in 2011, but if you’re willing to lower your expectations from his 2010 HR total, he could be a borderline No. 2 outfielder in most standard leagues.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS

Check out the Home Run Heroics Forum to discuss the hottest baseball topics, including the upcoming 2011 fantasy baseball season!

Fantasy Baseball Insiders’ 2011 Big Board:

• Nos. 1-10: Is Pujols Still The Top Pick?
• No. 11: Joey Votto
• No. 12: Robinson Cano
• No. 13: Ryan Howard
• No. 14: Alex Rodriguez
• No. 15: Prince Fielder
• No. 16: Matt Holliday
• No. 17: Mark Teixeira
• No. 18: Matt Kemp
• No. 19: Roy Halladay

Previous articles from Fantasy Baseball Insiders:

• 2011 Projections: Adrian Beltre
• The Sub-2.50 ERA Curse: Why Five Elite Starting Pitchers May Regress in 2011
• 2010 Batting Average on Balls in Play Leaders: What to Expect in 2011?
• 2011 Closer’s Corner: Papelbon, Cordero & Rivera Are the Only Reliable Options

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There’s word going around baseball that the Blue Jays may be on the verge of another trade. Now if you’re yelling at the computer screen, asking “Why?” just calm down. There is an obvious abundance of DH/1B types on the roster. After the Vernon Wells trade the Jays now have four, yes four, players who can comfortably fit at DH. The great thing about this is that the Jays have many options and directions they can go; they could stick Napoli at 1B, Arencibia at catcher and use Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind or Juan Rivera at DH. In my opinion I think that Arencibia should start with the team this year rather than in Vegas. He’s a young hitter which means there will be many steps he’ll need to take (along with many slumps) but he’s the future for the Jays and he’s basically dominating the minors with his 53 home runs in 2 seasons at AAA.

If Anthopoulos has to trade someone away it should easily be Rivera or Encarnacion. They’re two players that are reaching the end of the line in their careers, unlike Napoli. Although Napoli isn’t the big bopper type that you’re looking to carry the team, he’s still young, (just turned 29), which means he still has a lot of upside. Adam Lind absolutely needs to be in the lineup everyday, his 23 home runs and 72 RBI are much needed in this lineup, I don’t think there’s much talk about not having him in there. He can easily cover the DH spot or help out Napoli at 1B when he’s needed. The one position that the Jays are reportedly looking at is 3B, if they’re able to land a third baseman, then the outfield will be set with: Bautista, Davis & Travis Snider. Since the Jays have already stated that Rajai Davis will be starting in Center the fact of the matter is that Juan Rivera is too expensive to be a bench/pinch hitter, so he’ll likely be the odd man out.

With the Wells trade the Jays freed up quite a bit of payroll which means they could actually go after a bigger name third baseman rather than an unproven type of player. I don’t know about you but I would be much more comfortable with an infield & outfield that looks like this:

C – Arencibia

1B – Napoli

2B – Hill

SS – Escobar

3B – ?

RF – Bautista

CF – R. Davis

LF – Snider

DH – Lind

This depth chart is much more reliable than having Rivera or Encarnacion on the field and having to stick Bautista at 3B or 1B. If they make the right move it could really make a difference not just in the lineup but for the future of the franchise. So lets all sit back and see what Anthopoulos’ next move is. 

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The day most Angel fans surely knew would be coming is here. Mike Napoli, along with Juan Rivera, has been traded to the Toronto Blue Jays for Vernon Wells. 

Mike Napoli set a career high in games played and at bats for the 2010 Angels. As a part time catcher and first baseman after the injury to Kendry Morales, Napoli smashed a career high 26 homers and drove in a career high 68 runs. He also saw his on-base percentage fall to .316 and had an anemic .182/.641 OPS with runners in scoring position.

Those internal numbers, as well as not being the most defensively sound catcher in the organization, made this move inevitable. While the pitching staff enjoyed throwing to Napoli, the Angels coaching staff had concerns about Napoli’s conditioning and inability to remember pitch sequences during pitchers meetings.

With Jeff Mathis, Bobby Wilson, and prized rookie Hank Conger all looking for at bats, it seemed clear one of them would be moved. The less said about Juan Rivera’s 2010 performance, the better. Lack of playing time and an appeared lack of desire to play makes his inclusion by subtraction.

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Eric Denton is the head writer and content editor at LA Angels Insider.com. Angels coverage from the locker room to the press box to the front office and everywhere in between. Featuring interviews with the players and coaches making headlines for the Angels.

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