Kuzul

Right Field

Travis Snider, in his third year in the majors, is looking for more consistency and a clean bill of health; 2011 could be the year that he achieves both.  Snider hasn’t had a smooth path to the majors, but has shown at different times that he is more than capable of excelling at the highest level.  

Snider should take over starting duties in right field, with the occasional start by Jose Bautista to give him a day off.  Bautista will get most of his starts at third base unless the Jays acquire another player between now and spring training, and will back up Snider in right.

Snider batted .378 in May with a .711 Slugging Percentage before the injury that took him out for all of June and July, then rebounded with a .304 average in September and October.  A full year of at-bats should see an impressive increase in production with a batting average likely around .290.

Center Field

The longest serving member of the Blue Jays, Vernon Wells, will again return to his position in center field.  The veteran outfielder will work to unite the young Snider and new Rajai Davis into a defensive unit with his responsible play and experience.  Wells has had over 500 at-bats over the last eight seasons, remaining relatively injury free, despite struggles with his wrist last year.  His resurgence in power saw him post his best home run and RBI totals since 2006, at 31 and 88 respectively.

Davis will cover for him on his off days, creating a chain effect that will see Snider move to left field and Bautista to right, or Corey Patterson filling in where needed.

Left field 

The speedy new acquisition Rajai Davis will be taking over left field for the Toronto Blue Jays.  They will try to have him in the line-up as much as possible so they have a legitimate base stealing threat in the leadoff position.  Davis has stolen 142 bases over the last four seasons, including 50 last season alone—far more than even the next closest Jay.

Corey Patterson is slotted to be the fourth outfielder right now, another base stealing threat with 21 last season.

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The off-season free agency frenzy has already begun, and so far we’ve seen only a handful of players switch teams. Dan Uggla was dealt to the Braves, Javier Vazquez returned to the NL, and Victor Martinez joined fellow countryman Miguel Cabrera in Detroit.

While unsigned free agents Cliff Lee, Adrian Beltre and Carl Crawford will make great impacts for their new teams, we can’t forget that there is more than one way to improve your team.

Here we take a look at eight trades that should happen this off-season for a variety of reasons. Whether it be due to salary concerns or an attempt to re-build with young players, some big names could be dealt this winter. Here are eight transactions that are both realistic and beneficial.

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New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter, for years one of the worst defensive shortstops in all of Major League Baseball, somehow managed to win his fifth Gold Glove on Tuesday afternoon despite having a truly horrendous season with the glove.

As if the anecdotes regarding Gold Glove misses in recent years—Mike Young 2008, Nate McLouth 2008, Rafael Palmeiro 1999—had not yet killed the reputation of the Gold Glove and any utility to be derived from the meaning of having won the award, we now have evidence at the most fundamental of levels that the Gold Glove is a laughable award.

Which is a shame, because there are certainly Gold Glovers who regularly deserve the award, such as other 2010 winners Scott Rolen, Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn and Brandon Phillips, each of whom was announced as a 2010 Gold Glover in the National League on Wednesday.

In order to properly honor Derek Jeter and all his achievements with the glove, BaseballEvolution.com has decided to start its own set of fielding awards: the Derek Jeter Awards.

From this point forward, the Derek Jeter Awards will be given to the worst fielding big name player at each position in both the National League and the American League. In this way, we can take time to honor all of baseball’s biggest stars who, oh by the way, are terrible fielders.

In 2010, the American League Jeter for shortstop will go to Derek Jeter–even though technically it belongs to Yuniesky Betancourt–and hopefully we’ll never again see any overlap between the Gold Gloves and the Derek Jeters.

Let’s have a look.

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Several years ago, after Vernon Wells posted a breakout season (worth $21 million, according to FanGraphs), the Toronto Blue Jays offered him a seven-year contract for $126 million, or $18 million per year. That was clearly a mistake.

The $18 million part was only a slight mistake, using my formula below. The real mistake was the seven year part, because few players’ worth can be forecasted over that kind of a time frame. If the contract had been $18 million per year for, say, four years, it would have been a reasonable mistake.

This past year, Jose Bautista had a breakout season even more impressive than Wells’, to the tune of nearly $28 million, making him the American League’s sixth most valuable position player (both according to FanGraphs). Yet the scuttlebutt is that the team will use his final—year arbitration status to lowball him for about $7 million, or one—fourth of last year’s production.

What could such a player be worth as a free agent? I’m using a formula that regresses his value to half the difference between his peak value and his former baseline value. Bautista was worth about $8.4 million in 2009, or about a league average value, despite playing only two—thirds the time. (His production “rate” (per game) was above league average.)

The average of $28 million in 2010 and $8 million in 2009 is $18 million. Hence, one can say that Bautista would be worth at least $15 million a year as a free agent and still have a “margin of safety” (relative to the hypothetical $18 million). That’s why I’d be willing to offer him a three or four year contract for up to $40 million or $55 million respectively, basically $15 million per year, minus an arbitration—year discount next year.

What would Wells have been worth as a free agent? In 2005, the year before his 2006 breakout, he was worth $11 million. The average of this was $16 million. Hence, I would have been willing to offer him a contract of up to four years for $64 million, or $16 million per. (Wells was actually worth that $16 million in 2010, after injuries in the three previous years held him below that, which is the luck of the draw.)

A payment of $18 million per year for four years, or $72 million total, would have been an overpayment, but not an egregious one. It was the three extra years, bringing the total to $126 million, that was the killer.

If the Blue Jays offer Bautista only $7 million or so for 2011, and he produces another year with 30+ (not 50+) home runs, they’ll have an awful time re-signing him, since he’ll be “established,” and a free agent. The time to sign him long—term is NOW, when everyone knows what he can do but is not sure he will.

One commenter cited his mediocrity up to 2009 (2008, actually, 2009 was quite good). But look at it this way: Imagine a class with three hourly exams and a final. The final counts for 50 percent of the grade, but also replaces every hourly grade lower than itself (so the hourly’s can help you, but not hurt you).

Bautista clearly “aced” the final (to the tune of $15-$18 million a year, not $28 million). Yes, if you average in his low “hourly’s” he has a “B” average. But in assessing his potential, I prefer to use the “final.”

There is a saying of “once bitten, twice wary.” But a better saying might be that it’s just as bad to underpay as to overpay.

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After establishing himself as one the AL’s better outfielders from 2003 to 2006, Vernon Wells failed to produce at the dish in 2007 and again in 2009. Injuries almost certainly played a part in his rough ’09 campaign, but with two off years sandwiching a productive 2008 season, there were lots of questions to be answered in 2010.

Fairly or unfairly for Wells, he will spend the rest of his time in Toronto with the burden of his massive contract hanging over his head day in and day out. That contract will be paying Wells over twenty million a season for the next four seasons. Needless to say, quite a bit of production will be expected from a player making such a lofty sum of money. That’s understandable, but at the same time it’s not as if Wells is writing his own checks either. 

2010 showed us that Wells can still be an above average player. Whether he can keep that going through 2014 is a question to try and answer at a later time. For now the Jays fans and front office alike can relax a bit with a solid, healthy season in the books. Wells played in 157 games and made 646 trips to the plate, topping 150 games played for the second season in a row and sixth time in nine seasons since 2002.

Wells stormed out of the gate in April hitting .337 with eight homers and a monthly season high wOBA of .468. After April however, his production dropped in each of the next three months. Wells walk rate dropped from 7.9 percent of his plate appearances in April down to just 5.8 percent in June. His batting average dipped down to .240 and .236 in June and July. Only his continued power output allowed him to post above average wOBAs in May and June with isolated power marks of .222 and .250.

The decline hit rock bottom in July, a month that saw Wells go deep just once with a slash line of .236/.289/.348. At that point it was hard to have any optimism that Wells could get his act back together. August was slightly better, he still only hit .248 but he managed a .198 ISO thanks to three homers and nine doubles.

In September, Wells could do no wrong at the plate. He drew a walk in 11.8 percent of his trips to the plate, the third highest monthly mark of his career, and had more home runs, eight, than strikeouts, seven. He also tossed in a .298 batting average, .386 on-base percentage and had a .288 ISO.

The strong start and finish left Wells with some impressive end of season numbers. He topped 30 homers and 40 doubles for the third time in the same season finishing with 31 homers and 44 doubles. His 7.7 percent walk rate was almost a full point higher than his career average and the best rate since 2006. The .242 isolated power was the best mark of his career. His final wOBA of .362 was well above the league average mark of .321.

According to the defensive metrics, Wells had his best defensive season since 2007. Those metrics also suggest he might be better off moving to an outfield corner spot. Whether or not the metrics are accurate, Wells is definitely not getting any younger and a move to a corner spot would be nothing more than the usual fate of centerfielders reaching their mid-thirties. If he produces like he did in 2010 his batting numbers would be fine for a corner fielder and are excellent for a centerfielder in the meantime.

The Jays will have Wells on the payroll for the next four years and he doesn’t figure to produce twenty million dollars a year of value but at this point two or three more seasons like 2010 will do just fine as the team tries to build a winner around him and the other veterans.

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Let’s take a look at three players who would be considered hot, as well as three who had their values take a hit:

Three Hot:

1. Vernon Wells – Toronto Blue Jays
   He went 3-3 with 2 HR, 2 RBI and 2 R, giving him four home runs over his last three games.  Over that span, he’s gone an impressive 6-11 with 4 HR, 8 RBI and 5 R.  He got off to a great start, but had just 4 HR and 22 RBI between July and August.  At this point, it looks like he has rediscovered the swing that helped him to 19 HR over the season’s first three months.
2. Ben Zobrist – Tampa Bay Rays
   The power had completely disappeared this season, but after going 2-3 with 1 HR, 3 RBI and 2 R, he’s now homered in two of his last three games.  Is it enough to ease our concerns or make up for a season’s worth of frustration?  Most likely not, but it certainly is better late then never.  His HR/FB entering yesterday had been 6.0%, after posting marks of 17.4% and 17.5% the prior two years.  It’s not hard to imagine a power surge down the stretch and into the playoffs, helping to rebuild his perceived value moving forward.  He certainly has the potential to have a big last few weeks, so just continue to run him out there.  Luckily, his 23 SB has helped to make him viable without the power.
3. Jim Thome – Minnesota Twins
   He certainly is making the most of his everyday AB, isn’t he?  He went 1-1 with 1 HR, 1 RBI and 3 R, homering for the third straight day.  In fact, in his last three games he has 4 HR, 7 RBI and 8 R.  That’s a heck of a three game stretch and if you are in need of power, he’s worth using while he’s scorching hot.  I wouldn’t get overly attached, however.

Three Not:

1. Mike Napoli – Los Angeles Angels
   Mike Scioscia already tries to find a reason to leave Napoli on the bench, now comes news that the Angels have recalled Hank Conger (catcher) and Mark Trumbo (first base).  Of course, those are the two positions that Napoli plays, giving Scioscia two more excuses sit Napoli down more often than not.  The problem for fantasy owners is that Napoli provides significant power from a catcher, with 22 HR in just 387 AB, so you have little option but to leave him in your lineup (especially in two catcher formats).  Just be prepared to be frustrated when he finds himself on the bench.
2. Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers
   After missing time late last week with tendinitis in his biceps, Cabrera was again forced out of the Tigers lineup with the problem according to mlb.com (click here for the article).  While he is currently listed at day-to-day, you have to think that the Tigers will err on the side of caution with their franchise player.  At 13 games behind the Twins, there really is no reason for them not to.  Fantasy owners are going to have to check the lineup, but I would anticipate being without him for a few days.
3. Yunesky Maya – Washington Nationals
   After signing a four-year, $8 million contract out of Cuba and winning the equivalent of the Cy Young Award in the Cuban National Series last season, there were grand expectations.  However, his Major League debut was an inauspicious one, giving up a three-run home run to Ike Davis in the first inning.  He finished with a line of four earned runs on five hits and two walks, striking out three, over five innings.  He was severely out-pitched by fellow rookie Dillon Gee (7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 4 K, W) of the Mets.  It is just one start, however, so don’t push the panic button quite yet.

What are your thoughts from yesterday?

Make sure to check out our extremely early 2011 rankings:

• Catchers
• First Basemen
• Second Basemen
• Third Basemen
• Shortstops
• Outfielders
• Closers

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM

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As reported by Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun, the Blue Jays put both Vernon Wells and Edwin Encarnacion on waivers earlier in the week. News has come out that both of them have cleared waivers and can now be traded.

Wells comes as no surprise, given his monster contract, but Encarnacion clearing does raise questions on his future with the ball club. 

Wells is averaging .270 with 22 HR and 60 RBI’s on the season. He started off on an absolute tear, but he has slowed down some as he usually does. The 6’1″ 230 pound center fielder could draw attention from some of the heavy spenders such as the New York Yankees, New York Mets and Boston Red Sox. However, I truly believe a deal is unlikely to say the very least.

Encarnacion on the other hand is a more sought after commodity. Signed to a modest contract that expiries at the end of the year, Encarnacion could be a good piece to have on an AL team to play at 3rd or DH. His defense is pretty pedestrian, but he’s blessed with lots of power and has flexed his muscles since his demotion to the Las Vegas 51’s (AAA).

Encarnacion is batting .244 this year with 12 HR and 34 RBI, but has missed about 46 games this season due to injuries and his demotion. If healthy, he could potentially have 20 home runs this season at least.

There are lots of teams out there in need of a third baseman. The team that stands out is the Atlanta Braves, having lost their franchise cornerstone Chipper Jones to injury for the remainder of the season.

Also put on waivers by the Blue Jays and clearing was long reliever Brian Tallet. The 6’6″ 220 pound lefty is 2-4 this season with a 5.65 ERA in 57.1 innings pitched. 

Tallet could fetch something decent on the open market, but he will not get you something to help the Jays right away.

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The MLB “Non-Waiver” Trade Deadline has come and gone but another has yet to arrive, the August 31st Waiver Trade Deadline. This simply means teams can still trade players but with the requirement of placing their players on the waiver wire, which is pretty secret in MLB and often if a contract is too hefty a player goes free.

Last year the Chicago White Sox shocked the baseball world by claiming outfielder Alex Rios from the Toronto Blue Jays and his expensive contract, in the neighborhood of $50 million left on it and getting him with no trade whatsoever. This scenario is unlikely to happen this time around but I can tell you that there are a handful of players out there likely to clear waivers for postseason hungry teams needing a final piece in order to win and here they are…..

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The All-Star game is in the books, and the National League finally managed to break their 13 year drought, thanks to a big three-run double from Braves catcher Brian McCann to give the NL a 3-1 win.

Despite the fact that the game was dominated by pitching, the game was not without its squandered scoring opportunities.

So here are the five players that were snubbed from the Midsummer Classic, and could have ultimately changed the outcome of the game.

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The MLB trade deadline is just weeks away, and the Toronto Blue Jays new GM, Alex Anthopoulos, is expected to continue putting his stamp on the team.

With that in mind, here are the players Anthopoulos should consider trading:

John Buck

He was not meant to be much more than a stopgap catcher until a prospect (like JP Arencibia) comes up through the system.

Arencibia has been simply outstanding from the batter’s box, hitting 25 home runs with a batting average of .319. His on-base percentage could improve, as its a paltry .369 and one of the main reasons his slugging is only .661.

However, if he works at better plate discipline, he could be an outstanding hitter. In the end, Arencibia is ready to be called up.

Trading John Buck while he is still hitting this great is crucial. The Blue Jays can get top-flight prospects if he continues playing this well.

They need to trade him while his value is still high, after all, he was only a backup for Kansas City last year. What are the chances of him keeping this up?

Lyle Overbay

Not because of Brett Wallace. I fully expect Wallace to be a great player and to be absolutely solid, but he is finally finding his groove defensively.

This, however, has cost him in offense, as his slugging is a paltry .497. He has an average of .296 with 14 home runs, but I think he needs a bit more seasoning.

The main reason for this trade is that Overbay’s contract is up at the end of the year, so we may as well see if we can get something for him now as a rental player.

I don’t think he would get us any compensation picks with the way he played this year. That’s not set in stone yet, though.

Alex Gonzalez

Before people realize he’s a one-trick pony (all he can do is hit home runs), we can see if we can sell him to the highest bidder for top-level prospects.

Once again, nobody is probably ready to go from the minors, so we would have to acquire a bad SS as part of the deal.

The Entire Bullpen

Seriously, if we can get Brandon Morrow for Brandon League, we should see if we can get a bunch of solid starting pitching prospects almost ready to go for them.

What’s the harm after all? If we have a weaker bullpen, we can send in all these starters as relievers.

They would be much more effective, and if someone like Morrow is available (I’m looking at you, Matt Cain), then we have to take him.

Vernon Wells

The main guy. This guy has cranked it up a notch and has been hitting home runs like crazy, much like the entire Blue Jays offense. His slugging and OPS leave a little bit to be desired, but he has been solid this year.

If someone takes his fat contract (I’m thinking of a team with a payroll higher than $175 million, you get three guesses) we can have lots of money to spend.

Also, if we get a top-flight prospect like Jesus Montero, we can also use him as a catcher sooner rather than later.

With all the money we would have to spend, Anthopoulos can truly build this team the way he wants.

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