Kuzul

The Major League Baseball All-Star Game will be held tonight in Los Angeles. That means the 162-game season has reached its half.  Let’s review the AL East team performances so far this year.

New York Yankees (56-32)

The defending World Champions have the best record in baseball for the first half of the season.  Their offensive lineup has been very consistent, generating hits and runs day-in and day-out.  Unlike last year, when they started the season slowly, Joe Girardi’s team has an impressive 20-11 record against teams in the division and has won 21 of 28 series.

Offense

The Yankees are doing very well offensively.  Second baseman Robinson Cano, being on top in almost every offensive category (.336 AVG, 115 H, 51 R, 68 RBI, .556 SLG), is surely a strong candidate for this year’s AL MVP.

Alex Rodriguez hit 14 home runs to bring his career total to 597, seventh-best all-time.  Nick Swisher is getting on base constantly and Brett Gardner can run, ranking fifth in the league with 25 steals.  Mark Teixeira, hitting .254, may not repeat his number last year (.292), but there are still a good two-and-a-half months of baseball for him to catch up.

Pitching

Starting pitchers Phil Hughes, C.C. Sabathia, and Andy Pettitte have been pitching extremely well, combining to win 34 victories for the Yankees so far, and they all have 10 wins or more.  Javier Vazquez (7-7, 4.45) had a terrible season debut, but has been improving gradually.  40-year-old closer Mariano Rivera (20 saves) seems rejuvenated this season.

Tampa Bay Rays (54-34)

The Rays started the year strong, but they have cooled down since mid-June.  However, through last Sunday, they are only two games behind the Yankees, which proves that they can still keep up with the Yankees to compete for the playoff spot.

Offense

The offensive power relies heavily on the middle of their lineup: LF Carl Crawford, 1B Carlos Pena, and 3B Evan Longoria.

Nine years into his career, Crawford is sixth in the AL in hits this season (106), first in runs scored (70), and second in steals (31).  Clean-up hitter Pena is eighth in home runs with 18 and walks tied for third with 51 walks.  With Evan Longoria, they combine to score 117 runs, almost 38 percent of the team total in first half of the year.

Pitching

All-Star starting pitcher David Price and Matt Garza lead the Rays pitching rotation. Price has an impressive 12-4 record with a 2.42 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.  His fastball can reach 97 mph consistently.  He and Garza (10-5) are the only 10-game winners on the team. Third-best goes to James Shields (7-9).  Besides, no Rays starter has more than 10 losses (Wade Davies has nine).  Closer Rafael Soriano has done a good job with 33 saves and just one blown save.  He can also be seen in All-Star Game in Anaheim.

Boston Red Sox (51-37)

The Red Sox had a slow start from the beginning of Opening Day. People seemingly believed it would be a forgotten season for the team.  While they were talking mostly about the race between the Yankees and the Rays, Terry Francona’s team is back in the playoff race.

However, luck is not on their side.

The lineup is infected with a massive number of injuries.  These injuries took immediate effect, as the Sox were swept by the Rays last week.

Offense

David Ortiz is one of the reasons why the Sox were not successful at the beginning of the year. He only hit .143 and with one home run in the month of April.

He’s caught up now with 18 home runs (tied for eighth in the AL) and the Sox rank second in total home runs with 118.  3B Adrian Beltre and SS Marco Scutaro consistently reach base with 107 and 101 hits respectively.  The third-best goes to 1B Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedrioa (86 each).

The Red Sox have six players on the 15-day DL: Captain, C Jason Varitek (foot), C Victor Martinez (thumb), 2B Dustin Pedroia (foot), Mike Lowell (hip), and OFs Jeremy Hermida (rib) and Jacoby Ellsbury (rib).  Catcher Kevin Cash was acquired to fill in the empty catcher spot for now.  The organization should be worried offensively and defensively to start the second half.

Pitching

Boston has a team ERA of 4.34 (fifth-worst in the league) and walks 314 opposing batters (fourth-worst).

To contend in AL East, they need to post better numbers, especially from starting pitching.  Daisuke Matsuzaka has not been very consistent.  Besides knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (5.22), John Lackey has the worst ERA (4.78) on the team. His numbers seem to decline year by year.

Jon Lester (11-3) and injured Clay Buchholz (10-4) are the only 10-game winners.  Other injury casualties include SP Josh Beckett (lower back spasm) and reliever Manny Delcarmen (right forearm). 

Toronto Blue Jays (44-45)

Who would have thought that the Jays could lead the Major Leagues in home runs?  Out of Toronto’s 404 runs scored, 136 of them were caused by home runs—the best in baseball.  However, they will not be a real threat in AL East.  Their sub-.500 record is just not good enough to compete with the three big guns in the division.

Offense

Eight Blue Jays already have 10 home runs or more: 3B/RF Jose Bautista (24), CF Vernon Wells (19), SS Alex Gonzalez (17), C John Buck (13), 2B Aaron Hill (12), LF/DH Adam Lind (12), 1B Lyle Overbay (10), and 3B Edwin Encarnacion (10).

But the home run is the sole offensive category that is impressive.  The team only hits .240 collectively, fourth-worst in the majors, and only has an on-base percentage of .306.  They also have the third-worst batting average with runners in scoring position (.240).  These figures explain why the Jays are barely a .500 ball club.

Pitching

With the departure of the “Doc,” Roy Halladay, manager Cito Gaston cannot find a true ace.  Brett Cecil leads the team with eight wins, the most among starting pitchers.  Shaun Marcum (7-4) has the best starter ERA (3.44). He is currently injured (elbow inflammation), and will be back after the All-Star break. 

Baltimore Orioles (29-59)

No one would expect Orioles to escape out of the cellar.

Although mathematically possible, they still have 78 games to play to get out of the bottom of the division.  Chances are it will not happen.  Thirty games under .500 is sad.  The firing of manager Dave Tremblay in June was appropriate, but the organization has yet to find a long-term replacement to lead the team.

Offense

Losing star second baseman Brian Roberts at the beginning of the season to the 60-day DL (herniated disc in lower back) was crucial to Orioles’ failure.  The team seemed to lose direction from the start.  Its offense mainly comes from RF Nick Markakis, leader in team avg (.308), and CF Adam Jones who has 14 home runs (tied with 1B Ty Wigginton for team lead) and scored 44 runs (most on the team).

Pitching

Bad pitching will make you lose games.  Ask the Orioles if you don’t believe me.

No Oriole starting pitcher has more than five wins.  David Hernandez’s four victories is a team-high.  The ace, Kevin Millwood, is injured, and had horrible first half (2-8, 5.77 ERA, 1.58 WHIP).

The rotation also consists of veteran Jeremy Guthrie (3-10, 4.77), Brad Bergesen (3-6, 6.40), Brian Matusz (3-9, 4.77), and rookie Jake Arrieta (3-2, 4.38).  A consolation prize belongs to closer Alfredo Simon (2-1, 13 saves, 3.24 ERA), as the management seems to have found a stable reliever to close games.

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For a one-night event, the Home Run Derby attracts a lot of interest. For that matter, there are many different factors that ultimately affect the outcome of it.

Will there be any new records set in this year’s Derby? How many home runs will it take to win it, and who will do so? Will there be another performance reminiscent of Brandon Inge’s no-show last year? How will the hitters be able to take advantage of the size and shape of the venue?

For starters, here are some of the dimensions for Angels Stadium of Anaheim: 330 feet to left and right field, 387 feet to left-center, 370 feet to right-center, and 400 feet to straightaway center field.

These are some of the questions that will surround the Home Run Derby in the days prior to it. Based on the strength of the field, dimensions of Angels Stadium of Anaheim, and the experience of the competitors, here are some odds on who will come out on top in the 2010 Home Run Derby.

Begin Slideshow

Fireworks were bursting in the air as we celebrated Independence Day, but they weren’t coming from these players.  Here’s a list of those who slumped the most last week:

1) Kevin Kouzmanoff, Oak. 3B

The “Crushin’ Russian” hasn’t been doing much crushin’ lately as the Oakland third baseman had no hits in 21 at-bats last week.

His fantasy stock has dropped over ten percent in most leagues.  He is hitting .266 with eight home runs with 40 RBI, and 34 runs this season.
 
2) Justin Smoak, Tex. 1B
 
Unlike his teammates, Smoak has not been productive, going hitless in 20 at-bats last week. His fantasy hype has gone from fire to smoke.  Smoak’s fantasy ownership dropped around five percent in most leagues.
 
 
3) Juan Uribe, SF. IF
 
California was hot, but Uribe and his teammate Renteria were locked in the freezer.  Uribe managed only one hit in 22 at bats.
 
 
 
4) Adrian Gonzalez, SD 1B

San Diego’s powerhouse went 1-for-19 last week.

There isn’t anything to get worried about, though, as he is hitting .293 with 16 home runs, 52 RBI, and 44 runs this season.
 
5) Edgar Renteria, SF SS

Renteria had only one hit in 18 at-bats last week.
 
Renteria started the season hot, but since recently returning from the disabled list he is still trying to find his swing.
 
He has lost some fantasy ownership since the slump. On the bright side, he didn’t have much fantasy presence since he only has around ten percent ownership in most leagues.
 
 
6) Ty Wigginton, Bal. IF
 
Wiggington went 1-for-24 last week.
 
About two months ago Wigginton was a hot pick up, but has since seen his fantasy ownership decline.
 

7) Troy Glaus, Atl. 1B
 
Glaus was scorching hot for weeks, but it took fantasy owners some time to warm up to the injury prone slugger.
 
He didn’t make many fantasy owners happy last week, going 1-15, and saw his ownership drop about five percent in most leagues.
 
 
8) Rajai Davis, Oak. OF
 
The speedster from Oakland had one hit in 13 at-bats last week.
 
Further, his stolen base numbers weren’t enough for fantasy owners to keep him around as his fantasy ownership took a 15 percent plunge in most leagues.
 
 
9) Justin Upton, Ari. OF
 
Upton went 2-for-20 last week, hitting more like his weak-hitting brother B.J.  His fantasy ownership was not affected, however.  

10) Vernon Wells, Tor. OF  

Wells , much like Renteria, started the year grabbing headlines, but had only three hits in 23 at bats last week.
 
His fantasy ownership was not affected by his latest slump.
 
 
Un-honorable Mention
 
Robinson Cano, NYY OF  3/23 .130 AVG.

Derrek Lee,  ChC 1B   3/23 .130 AVG.

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Six participants for the 2010 Home Run Derby were announced yesterday: David Ortiz (DH, Boston), Corey Hart (OF, Milwaukee), Matt Holliday (OF, St. Louis), Miguel Cabrera (1B, Detroit), Robinson Cano (2B, New York Yankees), and Vernon Wells (OF, Toronto).

All told, it’s not a terrible lineup.  There will be two more participants announced before the Derby, but you’ve already got old-school power hitters in Cabrera and Ortiz and some new blood in Cano and Hart.

Some people dislike the Derby, but I’ve always found it to be quite enjoyable.  I love watching the raw displays of power players put on but I could also do without Chris Berman in the broadcast booth, attempting to break all world records of the use of the word “back.”

Different stadiums play differently for home runs.  Some are known as hitter havens while other suppress home runs.  Over the past four years, the Home Run Derby has been hosted in stadiums that play well for home runs.

In 2006 and 2007, in Pittsburgh and San Francisco respectively, each stadium featured a body of water within striking distance for left-handed power hitters.  The Allegheny River in Pittsburgh and the McCovey Cove in San Fran. In Pittsburgh we got quite a show with Ryan Howard and David Ortiz peppering the river.

In San Francisco, with the water closer and more easily attainable, we were denied any splash hits when all three lefties exited quietly in the first round.  Howard, Prince Fielder and Justin Morneau all failed to advance or hit any into the water in the process.  A potential dream location suddenly became quite a boring contest, as the Giants home field does not play well for right-handed power.  Vladimir Guerrero won despite posting only three home runs in the final round.

When the Derby moved to the House That Ruth Built in 2008, for Yankee Stadium’s final season, the short right field porch, distant black batter’s eye and inviting upper decks called out to sluggers as targets for long home runs.  A gap in the back wall even inspired predictions that some powerful left-handed bat could potentially hit one out of Yankee Stadium.

Then MLB announced the participants and they included four elite lefty sluggers.  Chase Utley, Justin Morneau, Lance Berkman and Josh Hamilton all participated and a buzz preceded the 2008 HR Derby like none since Sammy Sosa, Ken Griffey Jr. and Mark McGuire knocked buildings over in the late 90s.

Josh Hamilton did not disappoint.  He went on to hit 28 home runs in the first round alone, easily a Derby record.  But more impressive than the amount of homers was the way in which Hamilton hit them.  He demolished each offering from his batting-practice pitcher, not clearing the stadium, but putting balls deep into the upper deck, far back into the bleachers and off the back wall of the stadium.

It’s the most fun I’ve had watching the Home Run Derby, and Hamilton’s first round performance seems to make people forget that Justin Morneau ended up winning the Derby over Hamilton in the final round.

The Derby moved from one of the oldest and most historic Stadiums in 2008 to one of the newer venues in 2009 as it came to St. Louis’ new Busch Stadium.  A beautiful facility, Busch Stadium also offered some attractive points for batters to take aim.  

Big Mac Land presented an alluring target for right-handed batters, situated way up in the fourth deck of left field.  Attainability would be difficult, but certainly not impossible and Texas’ Nelson Cruz reached it twice in an impressive first round.  Hometown hero Albert Pujols also managed to hit a ball over the left-field bleachers and into the outfield concourses.

In the second round and the finals, Prince Fielder proved Busch Stadium was just as entertaining for left-handed sluggers as it was for right-handed ones.  He launched home runs over the bullpen, deep into the bleachers and over the grassy knoll that serves as a batter’s eye.

This year, the host stadium is Angels Stadium out in Anaheim.  Or Los Angeles.  Or California.  Or wherever they’re from.  While I’ve never been to Angels Stadium I’ve seen it on TV plenty of times and from what I’ve seen, it doesn’t strike me as a place that will play host to epic moonshots.

There’s no upper deck in the outfield, so any home run that’s hit is going to land in the bleachers or bullpen.  Down both lines is a three foot wall an inviting distance away, meaning we’ll probably get a few cheap, pop-up home runs that carry.  There is a batters eye in dead center, but, unlike the grass in St. Louis or the bleachers in New York, it’s a flat surface so any homer hit there will just bounce right off.

There is the sliver of decorative rock formations in left center field, but homers there won’t have the same allure as a homer into a river or bay.

Not every stadium is designed with exciting home run targets, that’s just the way it is. We got lucky to have four consecutive home run derbies take place in ballparks that are conducive to epic home run shots.  But with an intriguing field of players this year that features some impressive raw power, I’m sure one of the boys will come through with an impressive performance.  

Sometimes it comes from the most predictable of sources, such as Mark McGuire and Ken Griffey Jr’s displays at Fenway Park in 1999.  But other times, the most impressive man of the night is the guy you least expect, like when Bobby Abreu went off for 41 home runs at Comerica Park in 2005.

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On Sunday afternoon the Blue Jays finally got a bit of good news after a few weeks of utter despair.

Outfielders Vernon Wells and Jose Bautista were odds on favorites to make the American League All-Star team and did so, but to everyone’s surprise, catcher John Buck was also named to the team as a replacement for injured Red Sox catcher Victor Martinez. This is Buck’s first ever all-star selection.

All three made it as reserves.

Buck, who was regarded by many as a short term fix, signed a one-year deal with the club this past offseason. It seems like the returns for such a signing were immense. If anything, Buck really cemented himself in the league, but also gave the Blue Jays front office a major trading chip on their hands.

Many teams are in need of catching, and the Jays are supplied with catching up and down the minor leagues.

As for Baustista and Wells, this will be Bautista’s first appearance and Wells’ third. Bautista leads the Blue Jays with 21 home runs and Wells is second with 19. Both players easily make up the most powerful three, four hitters in the league. It appears the league has also taken notice.

In related news, Canadian first baseman Justin Morneau was voted as a starter to the American League Team. He is enjoying a wonderful season thus far, and he received more votes than rival first baseman Miguel Cabrera of the Detroit Tigers.

The All Star Game will be played on July 13th at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, California. 

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Last week was filled with laser shows from coast to coast. There were 14 players who hit three or more home runs last week. There were a lot of hot streaks going on. But these few players stood out as the studs of Week 12.

1) 2B Dustin Pedroia Bos

Boston’s scrappy second baseman went 6-for-13 with three home runs, five RBI, four walks, and finished last week with a .462 AVG.

Pedroia had the game of his career when he was 5-for-5 with three bombs, pushed five us teammates across the dish, and scored four runs on Thursday night against the Rockies.

Pedroia was placed on the disabled list with a displaced fracture in his foot as a result of a foul ball the following night. He will likely miss six weeks.

The DL placement is a huge disappointment to fantasy owners as Pedroia was playing fantasticly in recent weeks.

Fantasy owners will ride out the DL and pick up a temporary replacement at second base.

Pedroia is hitting .292 with 41 RBI for the season.

2) OF Justin Upton Ari

The Arizona outfielder was 12-for-21 with three home runs, five RBI, four walks, one stolen base, and finished last week with a .571 AVG.

Upton has had issues with strike outs but his 13 home runs and 11 stolen bases almost make you forget about it.

His spot in the seventh hole has helped him streak and raise his overall average.

Fantasy owners who have stuck it out with Upton could use this hot streak and sell high.

Upton is hitting .271 with 39 RBI for the season.

3) 3B David Wright NYM

The popular New York Mets third baseman was 11-for-22 with two home runs, eight RBI, four walks, one stolen base, and finished last week with a .500 AVG.

He is having another fantastic season making fantasy owners everywhere smile.

Wright is hitting .303 with 61 RBI for the season.

4) OF Jay Bruce Cin

The Cincinnati outfielder was 10-for-20 with three home runs, four RBI, two walks, and finished last week with a .500 AVG.

Bruce has seen a slight increase in ownership and could be a nice free agent pick up if he is available in your league.

Bruce has a .282 AVG with 34 RBI for the season.

5) 2B Rickie Weeks Mil

The Brewers second baseman was 10-for-23 with three home runs, seven RBI, three walks, and finished last week with a .435 AVG.

Weeks tend to streak and follow it up with a slump. Take advantage of the latest explosion of production and sell-high with this hot streak on full steam.

His fantasy ownership increase slightly this past week.

Weeks is hitting .274, 45 RBI, and 13 HR for the season.

6) OF Vernon Wells Tor

The Toronto outfielder was 9-for-21 with three home runs, five RBI, two walks, 1 stolen base and finished last week with a .429 AVG.

Wells is on fire after having a terrible slump in the first part of June.

Wells hit two into the stands and garnered three RBI in Thursday’s game against the Cardinals.

This is a great opportunity to sell high and fill some holes on your fantasy team if you already have some power in your bats.

Wells is sporting a .288 AVG, 47 RBI, and 19 home runs for the season.

7) 3B Michael Young Tex

The Texas third baseman was 10-for-25 with three home runs, seven RBI, two walks, and finished last week with a .400 AVG.

Young doesn’t seem to grab the attention of the fantasy world as much as he should. He is one of the most reliable corner infielders in the game today.

Young is having an outstanding season with 11 HR, 51 RBI and a .316 AVG.

8) OF Carlos Quentin CWS

The White Sox outfielder was 7-for-18 with four home runs, 11 RBI, two walks, and finished last week with a .389 AVG.

Quentin has had five bombs in the last handful of at-bats. If he keeps up this pace he could have nearly 30 home runs for the season.

Take this surge of production by him to make a deal. Distract doubters who are fixated on his average by pointing out his power numbers.

Fantasy owners dropped Quentin like a bad habit a few weeks back. His recent hot streak however has brought a lot of them back as his ownership increased by up to 30% in several leagues.

His season average is terrible as it sits at .233.

9) 3B Alex Rodriguez NYY

The movie star aura that surrounds the controversial star often over shadows his superior baseball play. From the incident with Dallas Braden to his fight with Jason Varitek, A-Rod is always news.

The Yankees third baseman went 8-for-21, three home runs, 10 RBI, five walks, and finished up last week with a .381 AVG.

Rodriguez is hitting .303 with 54 RBI and 11 home runs for the season.

10) OF Josh Hamilton Tex

The Texas outfielder went 10-for-22 with two home runs, five RBI, one walk, one stolen base and finished the week with a .455 AVG.

Hamilton is having a stellar season with .346 AVG and 18 home runs for the season.

Honorable Mention*

3B Miguel Tejada Bal 13/27, 5 R, 1 HR, 1 XBH, 7 RBI, .481 AVG

SS Elvis Andrus Tex 11/24, 5 R, 0 HR, 4 RBI, 4 BB, 2 SB, .458 AVG

OF Alfonso Soriano ChC 8/18, 3 R, 1 HR, 4 XBH, 1 RBI, 3 BB, .444 AVG

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The 2010 MLB All-Star game is upon us.

On July 13th, baseball’s best will gather in California and battle it out for home field advantage in the World Series.

The starters and the players who fill the final roster spot will be voted in by the fans, while the reserves will be selected by the managers and players.

Some starters will be well deserving of the honor. Others will be voted in simply because they’re the fan favorites.

From Joe Mauer in Minnesota, to Josh Hamilton in Texas, and Miguel Cabrera in Detroit, there are great players from all over the American League. But the time has come to decide, what 10 players from just the AL East deserve a trip out to the Golden State for All-Star week?

Without further ado, I present “The AL “B-east”: 10 Deserving All-Stars from MLB’s Toughest Division.”

Is your favorite player on here?

Let’s find out, as we begin with an easy selection, and a player who’s earned
the right to represent the American League in the All-Star game.

Begin Slideshow

Right on the heels of Jose Bautista’s 20 home runs is Vernon Wells with 18. Going into Sunday afternoon’s game, the two men had nearly identical OPSs of .900 (Bautista) and .898 (Wells).

Wells’ slugging percentage is actually .020 points higher than Bautista’s, but the latter walks more, and has a .022 higher OBP.

Bautista has 47 and 49 runs and RBIs respectively. Wells’ totals are 43 and 45. The difference between the two mens’ offensive values is a statistical tie.

One thing that does meaningfully separate the two men is defense. Bautista is a liability on the field, while Wells is an asset. Moreover, Wells plays center field, a harder position than any of Bautista’s corner positions. 

On that basis, FanGraphs values Well’s contribution (year to date) as just over $10 million, Bautista’s at $7.5 million (based on what a free agent would likely receive for their respective performances). 

With not quite 81 games played, a reasonable rule of thumb would be to double these amounts and round up. On a full year basis, Wells might be worth about $21-$22  million, and Bautista $16 million. So (for now), defense tilts the balance in Wells’ favor.

But there is another factor that affects value, and it stems from the fact that Wells and Bautista got on the team in very different ways.

Wells has been a “Blue Jay all the way.” That’s certainly worth something in terms of loyalty, team fit, etc. But after a monster 2006, Wells was given a seven year, CC Sabathia-style contract extension lasting to 2014.

Counting three $8.5 annual installments of a $25.5 million signing bonus, Wells was awarded $9 million, $10 million, and $21 million for his first three free agent years of 2008-2010, $23 million in 2011, and $21 million each in 2012-2014.

Bautista, on the other hand, came to Toronto after having been demoted to the minor leagues by the Pittsburgh Pirates, who placed a far greater emphasis on his low batting average than his high OBP and OPS potential.

His trade for “a player to be named later” (Robinzon Diaz), reflects the extent to which he was considered damaged goods, as were his low salary, and the fact that he spent 2009 as a platoon player, playing about two games out of three.

This points out one other important difference between the two men: Wells is on track to barely earn his $21 million salary this year (after having failed to earn his salary with poor years in 2008 and 2009 because of injuries), leaving no extra value for the team.

On the other hand, Bautista is being paid $2.4 million, almost $14 million less than what he might be worth.

Put another way, with Well’s $21 million salary, you could get equivalent offensive production from Bautista (admittedly sacrificing some defense), and have almost $19 million left over, more than enough to pay pitcher Roy Halladay’s $16 million salary this year. The details, but not the dynamics, would change next year, when Halladay would be making $20 million and Wells $23 million.

On this basis, Wells is full-priced, and Bautista a huge bargain. As master investor Ben Graham (Warren Buffett’s teacher) said, “Price is what you pay, value is what you get.”

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It is always fun to speculate who will make the once-again expanded All-Star Game roster. Since each team has to have at least one All-Star, here are the 30 who are deserving.

This list includes many young stars of the game who should be showcased to the whole nation, as well as some veterans that you might not expect to see at an All-Star Game.

Begin Slideshow

Since Michael Lewis’ Moneyball came out in 2003 detailing Billy Beane and his strategy as GM of the Oakland A’s, we’ve all heard a lot about the philosophy that changed baseball.

We’ve heard about college scouting, OPS, patient hitting and Sabermetrics. We’ve heard about Jeremy Brown, Nick Swisher, Paul DePodesta and Theo Epstein. Above all, we’ve heard how the way to compete as a small-market team is to focus on players fitting a certain description: high on-base, lots of home runs and low strikeouts with heavy focus on statistics and none whatsoever on aesthetic appeal.

I’ve got some potentially upsetting news: we’ve all been missing the point.

Amidst all our excitement over the statistical baseball revolution, we’ve forgotten what Moneyball was all about: economics. Michael Lewis isn’t a sportswriter or a statistician. He holds a Masters in Economics from the London School of Economics. And at the end of the day, Moneyball (unitalicized intentionally when I’m talking about the strategy, not the book) isn’t actually about OPS or Kevin Youkilis. It’s about exploiting market inefficiencies.

The thing about the scouting strategies featured in Moneyball is that they only work when nobody else is using them. The idea underlying the A’s thinking is that while the Yankees and Red Sox have unlimited resources, you’re doomed to fail by doing the same things as them.

So Billy Beane did something different. While the rest of the league was focusing on average, RBIs and aesthetics, he focused on statistics, particularly OPS. This is exactly what’s meant by exploiting market inefficiencies – figure out what everybody else is missing and take advantage of it. As a result Beane made a living catching quality players who were falling through the cracks.

The trouble is that the rest of the league has caught on. Boston’s Theo Epstein is one of the top supposed Moneyball minds in the game. Noticed lately how Nick Swisher and Kevin Youkilis – the two players most highly touted in the book – are starting respectively for New York and Boston?

Remember the fundamental premise: you can’t succeed as a small-market team by doing the same things as the big-market teams. To compete, you have to do something different. So in today’s culture, where the big-market teams are focusing on traditional Moneyball stats, playing Moneyball doesn’t dictate going after OPS and patience at the plate – it dictates doing the opposite.

That’s what the Toronto Blue Jays have finally figured out this season. They’ve spent the past six years under JP Ricciardi rigidly refusing to scout high school prospects, looking exclusively at traditional Moneyball stats and essentially acting like Billy Beane acted up until 2002. Like the rest of us, they missed the point.

Under Alex Anthopoulos’ new regime, they’ve done the opposite. They’ve doubled their scouting staff, malcontent to rely on a DePodestean computer. Their draft strategy centres largely around high-risk high-school kids with heavy upside. They began the season by trading away the club’s biggest star in exchange for prospects.

And in case you haven’t noticed, they swing at everything. Moneyball told us never to swing at the first pitch. This year’s Jays tell us to swing at the first pitch as hard as you can, and quite often it’s ended up as a souvenir.

I began this article by saying that when it comes to Moneyball, we’ve been missing the point. Well, that Jays caught on. This is the new Moneyball. In 2002, Kevin Youkilis was slipping through the cracks as the baseball universe ignored plate discipline. Today, while the powers that be are preoccupied with plate discipline, players like Jose Bautista and Alex Gonzales slip through the cracks. The Jays are exploiting that inefficiency by focusing on performance indicators largely ignored by the teams with a financial advantage.

The only difference is that the indicators have changed. Looking back on Moneyball, Lewis absolutely argues OPS and plate discipline are better performance indicators. But the claim that they’re better is beside the point – what’s really fundamental about those stats is that given their dismissal by high-budget teams, they’re more economic. That’s no longer the case. In 2002 plate discipline was undervalued, and Billy Beane took advantage of it. Today discipline is perhaps overvalued – the undervalued assets are mechanics, aggression at the plate and high-school upside. Moneyball accordingly dictates focusing on those indicators instead.

Most people will tell you that swinging at everything, scouting primarily in person rather than through statistics and focusing on high-school players in the draft is a sign the Jays are no-longer playing Moneyball. I say it’s a sign they finally are playing Moneyball – or at least that they’re finally playing it properly. Call it the new Moneyball. And it’s working.

Courtesy Lion’s Den University Sports Writer Malcolm 

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