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See if this sounds familiar: A young power pitcher has a career year for a division-winning National League club. The next season, however, his performance drops off precipitously, injuries bite and the hand-wringing begins.

Yes, we’re talking about Stephen Strasburg, who left Friday’s game between the Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds in the second inning with “a tight muscle in his neck,” per MLB.com‘s Bill Ladson. 

But we could also be conjuring Mark Prior, the former Chicago Cubs stud who rose as far and as fast as Strasburg before a steep and tragic fall.

First, let’s get back to Strasburg: Even before’s Friday’s early exit, the 26-year-old right-hander was having a disastrous campaign.

Entering the start against Cincinnati, Strasburg owned an unsightly 6.50 ERA, and that didn’t even paint the whole, ugly picture, as MLB.com’s Andrew Simon notes:

The neck issue marks the second time Strasburg has dealt with an injury this season. On May 5, he left a game against the Miami Marlins with a balky back. He made his next scheduled start May 12 against the Arizona Diamondbacks and proceeded to cough up seven earned runs in 3.1 innings.

Yes, we’re talking about a couple of rough months. They don’t erase Strasburg’s brilliant 2014, when he posted a 3.14 ERA and paced the National League with 242 strikeouts in 215 innings.

But this feels like more than a calamitous blip or a temporary funk. It feels ominous, like smoke pouring from the engine of a finely tuned sports car.

And, most troublingly, it calls to mind the sad saga of the aforementioned Chicago ace. 

In 2003, you’ll recall, Prior racked up 245 strikeouts in 211.1 innings, remarkably similar to Strasburg’s 2014 totals. 

That year, Chicago vaulted to the NLCS but fell just short of a World Series trip, losing to an underdog wild-card team. The eerie parallels continue. 

The next season, Prior missed time with an Achilles injury. When he came back, his ERA ballooned. More injuries and an eventual shoulder surgery followed, and by 2007 Prior was out of the big leagues for good.

And here’s where we arrive at a strange twist in the Prior/Strasburg comparison. In 2012, the Nats controversially elected to shut down Strasburg in September, even though they were in the thick of the playoff hunt and wound up winning the NL East but losing in the division series.

Washington did it because Strasburg, who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2010, was on an innings limit to help preserve his arm for the long haul.

That mindset, in part, was a reaction to Prior’s fate, as Sports Illustrated‘s Cliff Corcoran spells out:

Despite his abbreviated career, Prior has a significant legacy within the game. Beyond his place in the narrative of the Cubs’ continued misfortunes, his injuries proved to be the flashpoint in the increased sensitivity to pitch counts around the game. The need to protect pitchers’ arms from fatigue was a battle that many in the advanced analysis community were already fighting before Prior came into the league, but the confluence of his heavy workloads in 2003 and his subsequent injuries made that message sink in within the game.

Now, despite treating Strasburg with kid gloves, Washington faces the very real possibility that the former No. 1 overall pick is damaged goods.

We don’t mean to be overly fatalistic. The news on this latest injury isn’t nearly as bad as it could have been. There’s still time for Strasburg to click back into gear.

The stuff has been there, intermittently, as Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo told MLB.com‘s Ladson.

“When he is feeling healthy and he says he is healthy, his stuff shows me that he is healthy, [and] he is proven to be one of the top pitchers in the league,” Rizzo said, per Ladson. “I think he hasn’t pitched the way he wants to. We have seen flashes of it, but he hasn’t been consistent enough.”

The consistency may return, along with the dominance. But with each meltdown start, each new twinge and setback, the rumble of concern will grow louder. The fears will ratchet up. The memories of fallen aces, of the Mark Priors, will keep nagging.

Stephen Strasburg’s story isn’t written yet. Right now, though, he’s in the midst of a troubling chapter.

All statistics current as of May 29 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted. 

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Since 2009, when he graced the cover of Sports Illustrated at the ripe age of 16, Bryce Harper has faced a flurry of doubters and unrealistic expectations.

He made his major league debut in April 2012, after a little over a year of minor league action, and was immediately inserted into the Nationals‘ starting lineup.

Prior to the start of 2015—after three MLB seasons—Harper was already labeled a bust by some, even though his numbers weren’t half bad. He hit at least .270 in each of his first three seasons, but he wasn’t producing at Mike Trout’s level, so he was somehow a “disappointment.”

It’s easy to forget he is only 22 years old and that most professional baseball players his age are still shelved in the lower levels of the minor leagues.

Through 41 games in 2015, Harper has certainly silenced his many critics.

He started the year with a bang by hitting a home run on Opening Day off Bartolo Colon, and then put together a solid April that consisted of a decent batting average, plenty of doubles and RBI and a ton of walks.

But then he took it to another level on May 6. That day, he hit three home runs against the Marlins. Then he hit two the very next game and followed that up with a homer in the next game for a total of six blasts in three games.

Since that three-homer performance, Harper has put together an out-of-this-world .535/.630/1.349 slash line. He has been red hot since the calendar flipped over to May, and he has been a pivotal part of the Nationals’ recent surge, which has them in first place in the National League East.

Not only is Harper a tremendous hitter, he is also incredibly fun to watch because you know he can make anything happen at any time with his violent swing. Will Leitch of Sports on Earth recently wrote an article comparing Harper to Babe Ruth, and one line really stuck out:

“He is the most exciting, dominant hitter in the sport,” Leitch writes. “When I watch him hit, I fully expect every pitch he swings at to end up on the moon. Its amazing to watch. And Ruth did this for 22 years.”

So he is ridiculously in the zone right now, but is he a legitimate MVP candidate?

At this point, it would be crazy to say no. He leads the league in home runs, runs scored, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+ and total bases. He also ranks first in wOBA, wRC+ and WAR, per FanGraphs.

Other clubs are catching on, too. Harper has been intentionally walked five times so far this season, which is tied with Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday for the most in the NL.

Those numbers scream MVP, but it seems impossible that he can sustain this madness, right? 

According to Matthew Kory of Vice Sports, if Harper continues to hit like he has hit since May 6, he will have 113 homers by season’s end. While that number is certainly a testament to how awesome Harper has been over that time, there is no way he is going to get close to reaching that number of big flies—he will likely not even reach 50.

Grant Paulsen had some high praise recently for Harper on 106.7 The Fan (via Chris Lingebach of CBS DC):

Right now, he’s the MVP in the National League. And one step further, he’s the best player in Major League Baseball this season. Period. 

What we’re seeing now, this is who this guy can be. And no one else on this team can be this guy for a stretch of a few weeks. No one else in this division—except for maybe one or two guys, like Giancarlo Stanton—can really be the guy that he’s been. You can count on one hand the number in Major League Baseball that can have a month, and a couple of weeks—a sample—the likes of which what Bryce Harper has.

Wow, Paulsen is obviously a big fan of the star that people have called “cocky” and “polarizing.” But he is absolutely right; Harper can do things on the field few others can.

Back to the MVP discussion. The voters look for a few things when voting: personal stats for that season, track record for that individual, how well-rounded the player is and the success of the team.

Harper has three of those right now. He certainly has the stats, as of right now, to win baseball’s most coveted award; he has three other productive seasons under his belt; and he is the most important player on a Washington team that will undoubtedly finish the season with one of the best records in MLB. 

Harper has also made strides with his defense. James Wagner of the Washington Post outlined this improvement in a recent article. Harper is tied for the most defensive runs saved among right fielders, and he is getting more comfortable in right field after playing mostly left field the past two seasons.

We will have to wait and see how Harper does for the rest of the season. He obviously cannot maintain this epic pace, but can he finish with 35 or more home runs, a solid batting average and above-average work in the outfield? I think so.

Harper has always been a true five-tool player, and those skills are finally coming to fruition in his fourth year in The Show. It is impossible to predict what the MVP voters will do—Trout should have won the award in 2013—but to this point, Harper must be the front-runner in the National League.

All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted.

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After putting together a solid 2014 season, Washington Nationals starting pitcher Doug Fister has struggled to begin the 2015 campaign. His year took another detour Friday after he headed to the 15-day disabled list.

Continue for updates.

Fister‘s MRI Comes Back Clean

Saturday, May 16

James Wagner of the Washington Post reported that Fister has a flexor strain that he will rest and rehab. He will then return to the mound when he’s ready.

On May 15, the Nationals announced that Fister would be placed on the DL after suffering from forearm tightness, and highly touted prospect A.J. Cole will be called up from the team’s Triple-A affiliate.

William Ladson of MLB.com added “Doug Fister flew back to D.C. today to get additional test on his right forearm. Matt Williams didn’t want to speculate on how serious the injury is.”

Through seven starts in 2015, Fister is 2-2 with a 4.31 earned run average and 4.70 FIP, according to FanGraphs. James Wagner of the Washington Post wonders whether the injury, in part, explains why the 31-year-old doesn’t look like himself:

While losing Fister obviously hurts Washington, Cole brings with him a ton of hype. MLB.com listed him as the 50th-best prospect heading into this year, and he sat at No. 30 in Baseball Prospectus‘ rankings.

Cole made one start this year, going two innings against the Atlanta Braves on April 28. He gave up nine runs, only four of which were earned, on nine hits.

The Nationals endured a slow start to the year but have since found their footing. They’re just 1.5 games behind the New York Mets for the National League East lead. Perhaps Cole’s arrival will bring better luck this time around and help keep Washington in playoff contention.

Meanwhile, the team will hope that Fister‘s short stint on the DL isn’t a harbinger of a more serious issue to come.

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Had you bothered to Google “Washington Nationals offense” earlier this week, you would have come across two headlines that said it all. 

One by Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post read: “A closer look at the Nationals‘ slumping offense.” The other, by Bill Ladson of MLB.com, read: “Nationals’ offense still searching for spark.”

Well, here’s the latest on this front: The Nationals offense has found a spark and is no longer slumping.

The Nationals won their third game in a row Thursday night against the New York Mets, and it was their offense that once again did the heavy lifting. After dropping 26 runs in two games on the Atlanta Braves, the Nationals registered eight versus the Mets for an 8-2 win.

The key hit was a three-run ninth-inning double by Bryce Harper that turned a 5-2 lead into an 8-2 advantage and in turn sent the masses at Citi Field headed in the direction of the exits. It was his second double of the night and his fourth in the last three games. He’s also walked in all three games.

So for him, pretty much business as usual.

But we’ll have more on that later. Right now, there’s more credit to dish out.

The recently activated Denard Span has also been in the middle of the action in the last three contests, collecting seven hits and a walk with seven runs and four RBI. Catchers Jose Lobaton and Wilson Ramos have combined for seven hits, five runs and six RBI. In the two high-scoring games in Atlanta, former Brave Dan Uggla pitched in four hits and seven RBI, three of which came on a game-winner Tuesday night.

This is what it looks like when an offense comes alive. And small sample size be damned, the shift in the numbers is staggering. A couple of days ago, the Nats were hitting .215 as a team and scoring 3.5 runs per game. In the last three, they’ve hit .350 and scored a total of 34 runs. 

An explanation, you say? Harper had a good one for what’s gone on after Wednesday’s game.

“It was a matter of time,” the 22-year-old right fielder told Jon Cooper of MLB.com. “We have a lot of confidence in everybody on this club, and we’re going to have some fun.”

Harper’s right. It always was a matter of time before the Nats offense came alive. According to FanGraphs, they entered the year projected to score more runs than any National League team except the Colorado Rockies.

Injuries to Span, Jayson Werth and Anthony Rendon made it tough for the offense to live up to that projection out of the gate. But now Span is back and raking and, after a very slow start, Werth has shown signs of life with three hits and a walk in the last two games. As a result, Washington’s lineup is looking and functioning like a much deeper unit.

And now it won’t be long before Rendon is back, too.

As Ladson reported, the All-Star third baseman’s recovery from an MCL sprain in his left knee saw him go through a full workout Thursday. Barring any setbacks, he’s a few rehab games away from rejoining the Nationals.

Once he does, the Nats will be regaining a guy who OPS’d .824 with 21 home runs and 17 stolen bases in 2014. Factor in the studly defense he played, and he was far and away Washington’s best player.

He might have trouble keeping that honor this year, though. Harper has a head start on Rendon, and the impact he’s made in the last three games is just a small part of what’s been a game-changing season.

Technically, Harper didn’t just finish off the best April of his career. It’s hard to top what he did in 2013, when he hit .344 with a 1.150 OPS and nine home runs. No matter who you are, that’s an epic April.

But while not quite “epic,” Harper’s 2015 was at least “stupendous.” Here’s Andrew Simon of MLB.com with the final numbers:

Those numbers look plenty good on their own, and they translate into an even better number. As of this writing, FanGraphs has Harper among the NL’s top hitters in adjusted offense with a 155 wRC+.

So, contrary to reports of him being overrated, you can consider this your annual reminder that Harper is an extremely talented young hitter when he’s healthy. That was the case in his Rookie of the Year season in 2012, early on in 2013 and late in 2014. When he’s physically able to hit, he hits.

And yet, there’s more to Harper’s recent batch of hot hitting than just good health. He’s the same hitter in many respects, but he’s also a much different player in others.

One storyline that’s gotten its share of play is all the walks Harper has been drawing. His 22 walks lead baseball and translate into a 22.0 BB% in 100 plate appearances. Even if you take away his five international walks, you still get an impressive 17.0 BB%.

The image of increased discipline that creates is no mirage. Harper has indeed made a change in his approach. And in his case, it’s one that’s overdue.

If you use Zone% to look up which hitters have seen the smallest percentage of pitches in the strike zone since Harper’s rookie season in 2012, here’s what you’ll see:

1. Pablo Sandoval: 34.7%
2. Josh Hamilton: 37.2%
3. Bryce Harper: 38.3%

Translated: Harper has seen fewer good pitches to hit than all but two other hitters. Pitchers haven’t been making it easy on him.

What we’re seeing in 2015 is Harper finally responding to this. He used to oblige pitchers by chasing outside the zone with a high O-Swing%. But now, he’s doing this:

Pitchers are avoiding the strike zone at about their usual rate against Harper, but he’s fishing at a significantly lower percentage. When that happens, so do walks.

That’s definitely one way to take what pitchers are giving you, but it’s not the only approach. A hitter can take what he’s given when he swings the bat, too, and that’s something else Harper has been doing.

As they should be, pitchers have been frightened of going inside against Harper, lest they run afoul of his raw power. They’ve preferred to stay away from him instead, consistently pounding him on and beyond the outer third of the strike zone.

According to Baseball Savant, they’re doing that more than ever this year. One thing Harper is making clear, however, is that this game plan is quickly becoming obsolete:

It used to be reasonably safe to pound Harper away. But now? Considerably less so. Really, it’s not safe at all anymore.

We knew coming into 2015 that Harper had loads of natural ability. But from what we’ve seen, it sure looks like he’s developed some legit smarts to go with all his talent.

Looking at the numbers is one way we can tell. The other is simply taking his word for it.

In a recent interview with Tom Schad of The Washington Times, Harper said he’s no longer “trying to muscle up and hit a ball 900 feet.” Instead, he has a new game plan when he walks to the plate:

I’m trying to be quick, not as strong, do what I can to connect to the baseball, see my pitches, draw my walks if I need to. If they’re not giving in, keep throwing me offspeed or off the plate or anything like that, don’t chase. If you strike out on a good pitch, it happens. But draw your walks, try to get good pitches, and don’t miss ’em.

This would be the long-form way of saying, “I’m just being a hell of a lot smarter.” And based on just about every number out there, it’s putting Harper on track to have his best season yet.

Up until a couple of days ago, his efforts were counting for naught in an offense that just couldn’t get going. But now, it looks like they’re going to start counting for a lot more than naught in an offense that’s getting more dangerous by the day.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted/linked.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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Max Scherzer has been one of the most durable pitchers in baseball since 2009, but the Washington Nationals ace is dealing with a sprained right thumb.     

Continue for updates.

Scherzer Throws Off Mound

Tuesday, April 28

The Nationals announced Scherzer threw off a mound and threw all of his pitches on Tuesday. They also noted his next start date remains unclear.

On April 27, Fox Sports’ Jon Morosi noted the details of Scherzer‘s thumb injury:

Scherzer, 30, is 1-2 this season with a 1.26 ERA and 29 strikeouts over four starts. 

One reason that Scherzer was able to get a $210 million contract from the Nationals in the offseason is because of his consistency. The prized right-hander has made at least 30 starts in six consecutive seasons and has thrown at least 187.2 innings in five straight campaigns. 

It’s no secret that durability decreases as you get older, though The Associated Press (h/t SportsNet Canada) broke down the numbers to show how rapid the decline usually is for pitchers who sign $100-plus million contracts:

The $100 million pitchers have combined to average a 12-9 record and 3.39 ERA during the first four seasons of their deals, according to STATS. During the remaining years, they fell to a 7-7 record and 4.43 ERA.

Durability decreases dramatically, with the group averaging 205 innings in first seasons, 178 by the third year, and 132 by the fifth.

The silver lining for Washington, whether Scherzer is only out for a short time or facing a lengthy absence, is that the rotation is loaded with talent. Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg and Doug Fister would be No. 1 starters on most teams, while Gio Gonzalez had a 3.57 ERA with 162 strikeouts in 158.2 innings last year.

While Scherzer adds a different dynamic, the Nationals are one of the few teams equipped to deal with this scenario without suffering a significant drop in production.  

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The Washington Nationals entered 2015 as a threat to finish as Major League Baseball’s first 100-win team since 2011, largely because their pitching just looks too darn good.

To this end, here’s the latest from the front: It’s not going so well, mainly because of what’s happening on the other side of the ball. Washington’s lineup is not at full strength, and it’s showing.

The Nationals played their fourth game of the season Friday in Philadelphia, and it resulted in their third loss. They mustered only six hits against Jerome Williams and three Phillies relievers, and lost 4-1.

And with that one run, the Nationals have now scored a grand total of…[drum roll]…seven runs.

In fairness, poor offense isn’t the only thing afflicting the Nationals. They’ve also played some poor defense, rendering their pitching staff—which has lived up to its billing with a 2.06 ERA—two different kinds of helpless.

But it’s the offensive woes that really stand out. As hard as it is to win games with bad defense, it’s even harder to win games when the eight regulars in your lineup are doing this:

Michael Taylor has been solid out of the leadoff spot. A couple spots below him, Bryce Harper is rewarding Matt Williams’ decision to move him up to the No. 3 spot.

But everyone else? Their production amounts to a pile of “meh” about the size of the Washington Monument.

Before you ask, the answer is no. Williams isn’t about to push the panic button.

“You just have to keep running them out there,” said the second-year skipper, via Bill Ladson of MLB.com. “Guys in our lineup have been there before. They have had success, they’ve done it. So, we are not worried about it. Just keep going with it. There are no excuses of not scoring enough runs, but we believe in our guys. We believe in their abilities and we’ll just keep going.”

Williams isn’t entirely right about one thing here, though. He says there aren’t excuses for not scoring enough runs, but his team has one.

Or three, if you want to get technical. If anything is obvious right now, it’s how much the Nationals need Jayson Werth, Anthony Rendon and Denard Span back.

Werth, Rendon and Span account for only a fraction of the early-season injuries the Nationals are dealing with, but they’re undoubtedly the players the Nationals miss the most. In light of what the three of them did last year, it’s no wonder the Nationals are struggling to put runs on the board.

Werth, who is recovering from offseason surgery on his right shoulder, hit .292 with 16 home runs and an .849 OPS in 2014. That OPS was the highest of any Nationals regular.

As for Rendon, who is recovering from an MCL sprain in his left knee, he was Washington’s most dynamic offensive threat in 2014. The 24-year-old third baseman hit .287 with an .824 OPS and showed off a surprising power/speed combination with 21 home runs and 17 stolen bases.

Span, who is recovering from offseason core muscle surgery, was not steady all year. But he was money in the second half, hitting .346 with an .862 OPS. In the end, the 31-year-old center fielder finished with a .302 average and a .771 OPS.

Put these three guys together with names like Harper, Ryan Zimmerman and Ian Desmond, and you’re looking at a pretty good offense. Hence why FanGraphs projected the Nationals to be the second-best run-scoring team in the National League this season.

But without these three guys, perhaps Washington’s biggest weakness is being exposed: depth.

Cliff Corcoran of SI.com warned this would be a problem back in March even before Rendon joined Werth and Span among the walking wounded. Taylor, one of Washington’s top prospects, has done fine in place of Span, but Tyler Moore, Clint Robinson and Dan Uggla have filled in for Werth and Rendon about as poorly as anyone could have anticipated.

Fortunately for the Nationals, Werth isn’t far from returning. According to Ladson, he’s aiming to make his 2015 debut on Monday against the Boston Red Sox. Once he’s back, Williams will be gaining either an excellent No. 2 hitter or an excellent cleanup hitter.

The news on Rendon and Span, however, is less encouraging.

According to Ladson, Rendon is still having problems with his left knee when moving side to side. There’s no timetable for his return, making it unlikely that he’ll be seen back in the lineup before May.

As for Span, Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post reports that he played three innings in an extended spring training game on Friday. He still needs some extended spring training action before going on a rehab assignment, so he is also a dicey candidate to return before the end of April.

If the Nationals have one advantage while they await Werth’s near-return and the not-so-near returns of Rendon and Span, it’s that they don’t have the toughest schedule for the time being. As ESPN.com’s Buster Olney noted in March:

Sure, some of the teams that the Nationals play early in the season have upgraded—the Marlins, the Padres, the Mets bringing back Matt Harvey—but the Nationals have just one series against a 2014 playoff team among the first 67 games of their season, when they meet the Cardinals in April. Washington faces Pittsburgh June 19. In other words, the Nationals are primed for launch.

These should be comforting words…but the trouble is they’re only comforting to a degree. As the Nationals have shown in their first four games, an easy schedule is only good for so much when you’re missing three of your best players.

Here’s guessing they’re probably not going to stay on their current pace, as that would involve them joining the 1962 New York Mets in the 120-loss club. Nothing is going to make the Nationals that bad.

But they definitely need their missing pieces back if they want to be as good as everyone expects them to be. The sooner Werth, Rendon and Span are back, the sooner the Nats can get on with chasing 100.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted/linked.

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This winter, the Washington Nationals set themselves up to mow down any team that stands in the way of a World Series title, but now it’s time for the Nats to put their $156 million where their mouth is. 

That number is Washington’s total payroll obligation in 2015, according to Baseball Prospectus.

The Nationals shattered their previous franchise spending record in order to win right now. And it’s hard to see them doing anything other than dominating with the roster general manager Mike Rizzo and company have assembled. 

The list of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Doug Fister and Gio Gonzalez reads more like an All-Star team than a single club’s rotation. The offense that supports that squad features two reigning Silver Sluggers in Anthony Rendon and Ian Desmond and a perennial member of the all-potential team in Bryce Harper. 

Washington will be called a lot of things if its grand experiment doesn’t materialize in a World Series trophy. Failure, disaster and underachiever are some of the nicer insults the Nationals would face in that situation. 

But the way this team is built, the odds of making a run at the championship aren’t exactly stacked against it. 

What follows is your guidebook to the 2015 Nationals as they kick off the most anticipated season in the franchise’s history. 

Begin Slideshow

Anthony Rendon‘s knee injury isn’t serious, they said. He’s only being held out of spring training action as a precaution, they said.

Well, now they’re singing a different tune. And for a Washington Nationals club that has eyes on being perhaps the elite team in Major League Baseball in 2015, that’s a bummer.

Let’s go back to Wednesday, March 11. That was the day that Rendon, Washington’s 24-year-old star third baseman, was scratched from the day’s exhibition with a left knee injury. It was only described as swelling, though, and Nats manager Matt Williams told Bill Ladson of MLB.com that holding Rendon out was “purely precautionary.”

Nearly two weeks later, however, Rendon has not only yet to return to Grapefruit League action, but now may be unable to return to before spring training is over.

Though ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reported over the weekend that Rendon had been cleared to resume baseball activities, James Wagner of The Washington Post threw some water on that Monday:

This is quite the turn of events in light of how Rendon‘s bum knee was only supposed to sideline him for a couple of days. But given that the diagnosis has gone from mere swelling to, according to Stark, a sprained medial collateral ligament, it’s not overly surprising, either.

Fortunately, there are two bright sides here.

One is that nobody’s suggesting that Rendon‘s knee injury will knock him out for a prolonged period. The other is that this is happening now rather than later, especially knowing that Washington has an early-season schedule that ESPN.com’s Buster Olney thinks is the easiest in the National League.

The not-so-bright side is the possibility that a season-opening stay on the disabled list may not cure Rendon‘s knee. Williams expressed concern to Stark about Rendon‘s injury being of the nagging variety, and that it might “stay around awhile.” 

That makes it worth getting into what Rendon playing on a lingering left knee injury this season could cost the Nationals, which will not be a happy-go-lucky discussion.

Here’s the simplest way to put it: If Rendon is compromised, a guy who was easily Washington’s best player in 2014 is compromised.

It’s not just that Rendon slashed a solid .287/.351/.473 with 21 home runs. He also excelled at two positions on defense, most notably in posting easily above-average metrics (see FanGraphs) at third base. And as his 17 stolen bases reflect, he was an asset on the basepaths as well.

These are the ingredients of Wins Above Replacement we’re talking about, and WAR definitely liked Rendon. Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs both pegged him as a 6.5 WAR player, which easily put him ahead of all his Washington comrades.

The question the Nationals are looking at now is how much of that value could be lost to a nagging knee injury. And sadly, the answer could very well be “quite a bit.”

At the least, you naturally fear that a bum knee would force Rendon to cut down his aggressiveness on the basepaths. That’s a concern not just in light of how it would mean fewer stolen bases, but in light of how FanGraphs pegged him as one of 2014’s 10 most valuable baserunners.

As such, a nagging knee injury could render Rendon‘s most underappreciated skill into just an ordinary skill. The result would be a good chunk of lost value.

From there, let’s consider Rendon‘s defense.

What makes him a quality defensive third baseman is his range. FanGraphs says he saved more runs with his range in 2014 than all but six other third baseman, and that’s easy to believe if you take a minute to peruse his defensive highlights.

When it comes to range, first-step quickness is crucial. To this end, a nagging left knee injury could cost Rendon on balls to his right due to a diminished ability to push off with his left leg.

Hypothetically, we’re talking fewer plays like this one:

Given that Rendon figures to be playing more balls to his left than to his right, fewer plays like that may not sound like a big deal.

But in this case, context is important. For a third baseman, missed plays to his left means more singles. Missed plays to his right, however, potentially means more doubles and triples. So we’re not just talking about him taking a beating in the defensive value department. We’re talking about the practical cost of him taking a beating in that department creating more danger situations for the Nationals.

Lastly, there’s Rendon‘s hitting to talk about.

On this front, that Rendon‘s knee supposedly hurts the most when swinging is obviously disconcerting. What gives yours truly some comfort, however, is the knowledge that Rendon is probably more capable of getting away with a weakened hitting base than most. Look at him swing the bat, and it’s his hip rotation and quick wrists that stand out more than how sturdy his lower half is.

But with any kind of knee injury, the one thing you fear the most is a loss of power. And in Rendon‘s case, even a minor loss of power could be significant.

Though Rendon hit 21 home runs last year, Mike Podhorzer noted at Rotographs that over half of them qualified as “Just Enough” homers in the eyes of ESPN Stats and Information’s home run tracker. Dig a little deeper, and you find that Rendon didn’t even average 395 feet on his dingers.

So, it’s very possible that a nagging knee injury could turn Rendon‘s home run power into mere doubles power. Given how valuable home runs are, there’s another decent-sized chunk of last value.

Mind you, it’s hard to say what all this could mean in a bigger-picture sense. But if we were to assume that a lingering knee injury could limit Rendon in three key phases of the game without taking him off the field altogether, it’s possible he’ll go from being a 6-7 WAR player to being more of a 3-4 WAR player.

That would cost the Nationals a handful of wins in the long run, and you can reach the same conclusion from looking at the situation from a more practical perspective.

Rendon losing something on defense wouldn’t be the best thing for Washington’s infield, which features a merely adequate shortstop in Ian Desmond and two players getting used to new positions in shortstop-turned-second-baseman Yunel Escobar and third-baseman-turned-first-baseman Ryan Zimmerman.

Further, diminished power and speed would hurt a lineup that figures to already figured to have less of both with speedy leadoff man Denard Span now coming back from core muscle surgery and powerful first baseman Adam LaRoche having bolted for Chicago in free agency.

As far was what this could mean for the Nationals’ 2015 season, the good news is that there’s a limit to how much one can be concerned.

No matter what, it’s hard to imagine the Nats not being a good team. Presently, Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs have them running away with the National League East with projections of 92 and 94 wins, respectively.

Certainly, you’d expect at least that many wins from a team that has a potentially historic starting rotation and a lineup projected to feature Rendon, Desmond, Span, Zimmermann, Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth and Wilson Ramos. And though the Nationals have more than their fair share of injury concerns these days, Stark correctly noted in his piece that for now they’re all short-term concerns.

But that’s where Rendon‘s injury could break from the pack. If his bum knee does indeed linger, it could be an issue for the Nationals all season long. And if it is, the handful of wins that could be lost as a result of his diminished defense, speed and power could make it tough for the Nationals to achieve super-team status and, in turn, run away with the NL East like they’re expected to do.

That’s another way of saying that while it’s unlikely to derail the Nationals, Rendon‘s knee could at least make things interesting. And while that’s not a proclamation of outright doom, it’s certainly a scenario the Nationals would rather not have to experience.

So, fingers crossed, guys.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.

If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.

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The Washington Nationals need Stephen Strasburg as one of the anchors of their deep rotation, but they may not have him for the time being given his latest injury.

Continue for updates.

Strasburg Suffers Sprained Ankle In Conditioning

Saturday, March 21

The Washington Nationals reported on Saturday that Strasburg suffered a sprained ankle in conditioning, and would miss his next scheduled start:

NASN’s Chris Johnson provided comments from Nationals manager Matt Williams:

He turned an ankle, sprained his ankle doing some conditioning, so we’ll have to push him a couple of days.”

Williams said the left ankle injury occurred yesterday.

“I don’t think it’s serious,” Williams said. “But again, you start messing with other parts of the body and go out there and try to pitch and throw as scheduled 75 pitches – we don’t want to have any issues with the arm trying to overcompensate so we’ll push him a couple days and he’ll be good. But it’s not serious.

Strasburg has dealt with a number of injuries throughout his career and pitched in more than 200 innings for the first time in his entire career in 2014. He finished with a 14-11 record, 3.14 ERA, 242 strikeouts and an impressive 1.12 WHIP.

Few pitchers in all of baseball have better pure stuff than a healthy Strasburg, which is why he was able to tally so many strikeouts in 2014. He was 26 years old at the start of the season and still should be right in the middle of his prime, but this latest injury is certainly cause for concern.

The rest of the Nationals staff may have to step up for the time being.

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The Washington Nationals‘ mostly solidified and entirely stacked roster is very low on drama this spring when it comes to position battles. 

Entering camp, the Nats had eight position players locked into everyday roles and five veteran starting pitchers plugged into the rotation.

Injuries shuffled the deck a bit—Denard Span will miss the beginning of the season and Jayson Werth is still probable, but not 100 percent ready, for Opening Day. But Span’s injury just gives eventual-starter Michael A. Taylor a jump on his big league career and Nate McLouth is a perfectly capable placeholder for a few Werth-less games if need be. 

Washington’s real parity is beyond the face value of the starting lineup. 

Tyler Moore and Mike Carp look like the last two Nats standing in a battle for the final spot on the 25-man roster. Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer still don’t know who will start on Opening Day and Gio Gonzalez is making sure he remains a starter in general. 

In this list, we’ll take a look at those less conventional position battles and make a call on who’s done enough in spring training to win them. 

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