The Washington Nationals‘ offseason has kicked into high gear.
The team has completed multiple hirings, trades and free-agent signings since the MLB regular season ended. Most of these have occurred in the last month or so.
So who won and who lost from all these wheelings and dealings?
To answer that question, here is a list of the Washington Nationals’ biggest winners and losers of the offseason so far.
Note: All statistics courtesy of MLB.com unless noted otherwise.
I’m one of the guys who confidently went down this road last year. In the end, the result was me kicking myself for daring to be so confident.
I’m ready to try it again anyway. I’m ready to say it: The Washington Nationals once again look like World Series favorites. They were already good, and they’ve made themselves better.
Yeah, I know. It’s early. Many rosters are still in shambles, and there’s still time for other top World Series contenders to make moves. The case I’m about to present is slightly premature.
And no, it hasn’t been a particularly busy winter for the Nationals. His first big move of the offseason was to hire Matt Williams to take Davey Johnson’s place as the club’s manager, but Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo has since made only one impact move.
That does not mean, however, the Nationals haven’t upgraded.
Per MLB.com, the Nats have added Doug Fister, Nate McLouth and Jerry Blevins and subtracted Dan Haren, Steve Lombardozzi, Ian Krol, Fernando Abad and Mark Lowe. Per FanGraphs version of the stat, the Nats have added much more 2013 WAR than they’ve lost:
That’s a 6.9-WAR swing in the right direction, so the moves the Nats made look like upgrades simply when taken as a whole.
Considered individually, though, they look like even bigger upgrades.
None more so than the switch from Haren to Fister, in which the Nats might as well have switched out Pete Best for Ringo Starr. This much is evident if we compare what the two have done recently:
Fister has been an elite pitcher, as his 2012-2013 WAR ranks in the top 15 among starters. Go back even further and look at the last three seasons, and Fister‘s been a top-10 starter.
In other words, the Nats aren’t putting their trust in another reclamation project this time. And not surprisingly, Steamer is projecting Fister to have a better season than the one the Nats just got from Haren. Via FanGraphs:
These numbers look good enough, but worth noting is that Steamer projections tend to be conservative. Fister has done better than a 3.3 WAR in each of the last three seasons. He’s at least as likely to outperform his Steamer projections as he is to meet them.
Nats starters finished seventh in ERA and tied for seventh in WAR in 2013 with Haren’s mediocrity. That was thanks in large part to Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann, who combined for a 3.21 ERA. If they stay the course and Fister holds up his end of the bargain, the Nats will have a top-five, top-three or the top rotation in baseball.
You know, sort of like they did in 2012.
Now to the next upgrade, which concerns what the addition of McLouth means for Washington’s bench.
Outfield depth never looked like a strength heading into the 2013 season, and it ended up biting the Nats. They missed a lot of offense when Bryce Harper and Jayson Werth were out with injuries, and their reserves couldn’t pick up the slack.
Compared to the reserve outfielders the Nats worked with last year, adding McLouth‘s bat is huge:
*Nationals numbers only.
Now, barring another wave of injuries, McLouth is very likely to have fewer plate appearances coming his way in 2014. And as solid as his overall numbers for 2013 look, he did fade in the second half.
However, Steamer still sees McLouth‘s offense being solid. The 93 wRC+ projected for him would do nicely relative to what the Nats got from their reserves in 2013.
As for Blevins, he’s a puzzle piece that the Nationals lacked for much of 2013, as they broke camp without a clear left-handed relief option. With Blevins around, they won’t be doing so again.
While he did have reverse splits in 2013, Blevins’ career numbers vs. lefty batters are quite good:
Blevins isn’t totally out of his depth against righty batters either, holding them to a .240/.326/.385 slash line for his career. Rizzo is aware of this.
“Blevins can pitch a full inning, he can pitch against right-handed hitters and left-handed hitters. He has pitched four outs, so we feel good about that part,” the Nats GM told MLB.com.
We may only be talking about three moves, but we’re talking about three big moves. The acquisitions of Fister and McLouth will bolster two areas that really hurt the Nats in 2013. While the Blevins acquisition is less important, it should stabilize an area where there had been little stability.
Maybe you’re still sitting there thinking, “Is that it?” If you are…Well, yeah. That’s it. It’s not like the Nationals needed to go out and overhaul their entire roster, you know.
While it was a disappointing season, Washington’s 2013 season wasn’t a disaster. The Nats won 86 games, and they did so despite Murphy’s Law hitting them from every which direction.
Harper’s injury woes were easily the biggest blow. He had a 1.150 OPS and nine home runs through the end of April. Then he got hurt in early May when he collided with a wall in Atlanta, collided with another wall soon after, and that was pretty much all she wrote.
On top of that, the Nats got virtually nothing out of Adam LaRoche, and had to make do at catcher and second base for much of the season.
Things should be better in 2014, as left field, first base, catcher and second base are four areas where Steamer sees the Nats getting a lot more production:
Basically: Harper, as expected, is going to be Washington’s best player, LaRoche won’t be a disaster, and Wilson Ramos and Anthony Rendon are going to establish themselves as above-average regulars. All around, the Nats are projected to have quality regulars at every position.
And while it can’t be ignored that Steamer sees Span, Werth and Ian Desmond taking big steps back while everyone else takes forward steps, here’s a reminder: Steamer projections are conservative. In light of their track records, those three players should be able to outperform their projections.
Even despite the modest projections, Washington’s offense as a whole is projected to be better than the up-and-down unit of 2013. The Nats got a total of 18.9 WAR out of their hitters this past season. Add up the Steamer projections for 2014, and you get a total of 20.2 WAR.
All told, I leave you with this: think of the Red Sox.
The Red Sox had a Murphy’s Law season of their own in 2012, losing over 90 games thanks to injuries, poor performances and bad vibes from start to finish. But there was plenty of talent on their roster, and they used the offseason to put talent where there wasn’t any.
The Nationals, who won a league-high 98 games in 2012, fit the same mold. The poor season they suffered through in 2013 should not obscure the fact that they entered the winter with plenty of incumbent talent, and they’ve shored up noticeably weak areas by bringing in more talent.
Williams may be a rookie manager, but he’s not being thrust into a situation where he’ll have to do a lot with little. What was a weak offense should be better. What was already a very strong rotation should also be better. What was a decent bullpen (3.56 ERA) should, at the least, continue to be decent.
The result should be the Nationals posing a serious threat to the reigning NL East champion Atlanta Braves, whose offseason has thus far been defined by the loss of Brian McCann. And if the Nats make it to the playoffs, their starting foursome of Strasburg, Gonzalez, Zimmermann and Fister will allow them to match up with anybody.
And as things stand now, the other top World Series contenders just don’t look better now than they did before.
The Red Sox and Dodgers have been largely quiet. The Tigers have been busy, but have been busy rearranging talent rather than adding talent. There’s a good case to be made for the Cardinals after adding Peter Bourjos and Jhonny Peralta, but their fate will hinge largely on their 2013 rookies avoiding sophomore slumps.
There’s a lot of offseason left. Teams are going to continue to rise and fall in the on-paper rankings. But from where I’m sitting right now, the Nationals are looking awfully good.
And this time, I’m really confident.
[Puts hand behind back, crosses fingers.]
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.
If you want to talk baseball, hit me up on Twitter.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
It is no secret the Washington Nationals expect to rebound after a disappointing 2013 to make a push for a World Series title in 2014.
The question is, what can they do to improve upon their team from last season to make the necessary adjustments in order to get there?
Fortunately for the Nationals, they have a solid core, and there are not a significant number of moves that need to be made. However, there are a few key ones that can spur the team to their ultimate goal.
We watched the Nationals struggle out of the gate this season and end the year on a tear that gave the city some hope near the end of the season. This would suggest the Nationals need a bit more consistency, and the most obvious spots in which they can improve upon consistency is at first base, starting pitcher and second base.
The MLB rumor mill is grinding away, and the Washington Nationals are in the thick of it, according to MLBTradeRumors.com.
Nationals fans will want to consider the positives and negatives of each new rumor involving their favorite team.
To help with that process, here are the pros and cons for each of the Washington Nationals’ top targets this offseason. In addition, each player is listed with the source of the rumor linking him to the Nationals, along with his 2013 stats and his 162-game averages.
Note: All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless noted otherwise.
For Washington Nationals fans, the MLB offseason is the time to dream.
Nats fans can dream about the season that could have been or the season that is yet to come. Or perhaps they can dream about the free agents who will help the team next season.
Of course, some potential free-agent signings are just that: a dream. A mirage. A figment of the imagination.
Thankfully for Nats fans, it is only Nov. 8. The offseason alarm clock won’t go off for another five months. So keep dreaming.
On that note, here are three dream free-agent pickups for the Washington Nationals this offseason.
Note: All statistics courtesy of MLB.com unless noted otherwise.
The relationship between former Washington Nationals manager Davey Johnson and outfielder Bryce Harper was highly scrutinized by the media this past season.
Harper was expected to play a major role in the team’s quest for a World Series title this year following Washington’s disappointing loss to the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Division Series in 2012.
However, the Nats’ highly anticipated 2013 season never came together as expected, as the team dealt with injuries to key players such as Harper and struggled to remain relevant in the playoff race until basically the final month of the regular season.
Because Harper was expected to be the driving force behind the team’s success this year, a big deal was made about the 21-year-old’s all-out style of play and inability to stay healthy. As a result, the relationship between Johnson and the promising outfielder became increasingly strained.
While there had always been concern about Harper’s playing style dating back to his arrival in the major leagues on April 4, 2012, it was never an issue until the outfielder ran face first into the outfield wall during a game at Dodger Stadium on May 13.
On May 26, Harper landed on the disabled list with left knee bursitis.
A little over a month later, Johnson and Harper engaged in a public disagreement after the outfielder expressed pause about beginning his rehab assignment ahead of schedule.
Johnson didn’t take kindly to Harper’s personal assessment of his own progress and potential return from the disabled list, per The Associated Press (via Sports Illustrated):
“I’ll have a conversation with him about that,” Johnson said. “When a player starts playing, it’s really up to me, what I think they need. Not up to the player. I’m always trying to do what’s best for the player. But at the same time, it’s my job to know when they’re ready and when they’re not.”
After missing 31 games on the disabled list, Harper made his return to the lineup on July 1 and, in classic Harper fashion, launched a home run in his first at-bat. However, after going 0-for-18 over the next four games, Johnson was considering resting the outfielder for an entire weekend series against the San Diego Padres.
Harper, of course, wasn’t interested in riding the pine and ultimately sent a text message to Johnson telling the Nats skipper to either “play me or trade me,” according to CSN Washington’s Mark Zuckerman.
Johnson was quick to defuse the situation and kept his response short, saying only, “He came in and we had a nice chat. As far as I’m concerned, he’s good to go.”
While Johnson’s attempts at managing Harper’s intensity over the last two seasons was admirable, the organization hopes that newly appointed manager Matt Williams will bring out the best in the 21-year-old.
In 2012, Harper was named the National League Rookie of the Year after batting .270/.340/.477 with 98 runs scored, 57 extra-base hits (22 home runs), 59 RBI and 18 stolen bases in 139 games. More significantly, the then-19-year-old played a vital role in the club’s 98-win campaign and playoff berth as NL East champions.
This season, Harper was limited to only 118 games due to injury and never posted the superstar-like numbers that everyone expected. That being said, it’s not as though his sophomore campaign was a failure by any means. Harper was still productive when in the lineup, batting .274/.368/.486 with 20 home runs and 58 RBI in 497 plate appearances.
However, the ball is now in Williams’ court in terms of furthering Harper’s physical and mental development during the 2014 season and beyond.
Though Williams lacks experience in the role, the first-time manager is confident that he can help the two-time All-Star maximize his potential and become an elite player.
In his introductory press conference last Friday, Williams discussed what it means to have Harper on his team as well as his plans for the outfielder moving forward, via Nats Insider:
“I’m here to help him,” Williams said. “I’m here to help him become the MVP and a Hall of Fame player. I want that for him. I want him to be that guy. I want him to be our leader. I want him to be the star that everybody wants him to be.”
…
“You just have to understand it, and that’s my job: to understand what Bryce does, understand the microscope he’s under,” Williams said. “It’s not easy being Bryce Harper. Who wouldn’t want to be Bryce? But it’s not easy. I understand that side of it for him.”
In general, Williams was highly complimentary of the 21-year-old’s approach to the game and overall demeanor:
“I love it, I love the way he plays the game. He plays the game the way it should be played,” Williams said. “He is all-out, every day, all the time, every game. He’s paid for it by getting injured and running into walls.”
Williams has no intentions of taming Harper or forcing him to become something he’s not. Instead, he wants to create an environment that will be conducive to the outfielder’s emergence as one of the sport’s best players, if not the best player:
“Now can we be a little smarter sometimes? Sure. And not necessarily run into that wall? Of course,” he said. “But the kid’s 21 years old. Let him go – this is a stallion. This is a guy that is ready to just explode. We’re going to try to give him the game plan to do that.”
While Williams’ handling of Harper next season will be endlessly dissected by the media as it was under Davey Johnson’s watch in each of the past two years, the Nats’ new skipper is already embracing the challenge.
Though time will dictate whether the change in leadership ultimately fosters Harper’s development as a superstar, it’s certainly encouraging that Williams is saying all the right things and seemingly eager to impart his wisdom.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
The Washington Nationals said goodbye to their legendary manager Davey Johnson this past weekend. Whatever criticism fans had of Johnson, the team made significant progress under his watch.
He led them to their first-ever playoff berth since the franchise relocated from Montreal with a league-best 98-64 in 2012. The team faltered in 2013 and finished out of the playoffs with a 86-76 record. Johnson leaves the franchise in good shape with many good pieces in place for 2014 and beyond.
This leads to the biggest question for the Nationals this offseason: who will succeed Johnson as manager.
It should be only one person: Randy Knorr.
Knorr has been the bench coach for several years. He has experience managing in the Nationals’ minor league system. Many of the players are familiar with his style of managing. There would be continuity with the principles that Johnson had during his time as the manager.
The Nationals came on strong in the second half of the season and almost made the playoffs in spite of a disappointing start to the season. There is little need to get rid of the core of the team. It would be smart for the Nationals to build on the strong finish and look to the future.
Although Knorr lacks managerial experience at the highest level, he already has the respect of the players. He has the endorsement of Ian Desmond, and Tyler Clippard would like a skipper who is in-house.
Both are prominent players on the team and would know the pulse of the clubhouse. It should have some clout when Mike Rizzo makes the final decision on Johnson’s successor.
Knorr is also not afraid of making tough decisions if the situation calls for it. As acting manager, he pulled Rafael Soriano from a game because he was ineffective that night and went with Ian Krol. Usually, you wouldn’t pull a high-priced player like Soriano in a non-save situation.
It says something about Knorr that he had the guts to make a move like that and defy conventional thinking. Managers need to hold players accountable when they aren’t playing well. He seems to have the right balance between being fair and being firm. It is a quality that could serve him well if he gets the top job.
Sure, there is a more intriguing candidate named Cal Ripken Jr. who has a name, but no experience. It will depend on who appeals to Rizzo the most.
For the players’ sake, it should be someone they trust and a man who knows the organization. Knorr should be the next manager of the Nationals.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
Bryce Harper is already one of MLB‘s best all-around outfielders, but it often seems that we overlook the uniqueness of his rapid rise.
Remember, the Washington Nationals centerpiece hasn’t even turned 21 yet!
Matt Snyder of CBS Sports notes that Harper and Tony Conigliaro stand alone in league history with multiple seasons of 20-plus home runs at such an early age. That feat is even more impressive when you consider that the All-Star has been enduring through injury for most of 2013, according to CSNWashington.com’s Mark Zuckerman (h/t NBC Sports).
You can generate all sorts of jaw-dropping stats about Harper when comparing him to others who were rushed to the majors as teenagers. Success isn’t supposed to come so easily when some of your competition has twice as much lifetime baseball experience.
Taking age out of the equation, Baseball-Reference.com tells us that this phenom is:
Most players associated with Harper via the above indexes spent more time than he did in the minor leagues, extra years at the collegiate level or both.
Bleacher Report’s Zachary Rymer is convinced that Harper will dominate the sport in 2014. He ranks 27th in the B/R MLB 500 thanks to his advanced plate discipline and power to all fields.
Harper can blame Mike Trout—who’s No. 1 on Rymer’s list—for raising the bar so high and distorting our expectations. Much like in 2012, Trout is a serious American League MVP candidate, wowing us with his production in both sabermetric and traditional statistical categories. He’s undoubtedly better than Harper at this point, utilizing his athleticism more effectively in the field and on the basepaths without compromising his durability.
However, it isn’t fair to do a straight comparison.
Both were technically “rookies” last season, but Trout had a head start. The Los Angeles Angels recalled their top prospect in July 2011, and he failed to establish himself. He posted a weak .220/.281/.390 batting line in irregular playing time, and due to that ineffectiveness, he ended up a few at-bats shy of exhausting his rookie eligibility.
Moreover, Harper is still striving to justify the hype he received from Sports Illustrated in 2009. The magazine draped him across the cover, with Tom Verducci dubbing him “baseball’s chosen one” and making comparisons to the NBA’s LeBron James (at that time already a five-time All-Star and league MVP).
Far too many baseball enthusiasts unfairly condemn Harper because he hasn’t yet realized that extraordinary potential:
Harper=Most overrated player in the league
— David Baker (@babybluebaker) July 22, 2013
Is there an athlete more overrated than Bryce Harper? Potential? Yes. But not even a star player at this point
— Steve Osherow (@SteveOsherow) August 22, 2013
in all seriousness bryce harper could be the most overrated MLB in the game!
— matt da cat maher (@MattDaCat10) September 17, 2013
However, few players have excelled at age 19 like Harper did. Even fewer have overcome their opposition’s adjustments as 20-year-old MLB sophomores to perform at a higher level.
Today’s baseball fan is spoiled with dynamic, young stars: Trout, Yasiel Puig, Manny Machado, Jose Fernandez, Wil Myers and more. Harper has the same sky-high ceiling as them all, plus a later birth date.
Indeed, he is sorely underappreciated.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
The Washington Nationals showed solidarity with victims of the tragic Navy Yard shooting by wearing Navy ballcaps during batting practice today. It was a touching gesture that shows the Nationals are standing behind all those affected by this incident.
The hats were hand-delivered by a Navy Admiral.
The Nats play a doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves today after having yesterday’s game postponed.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
By winning seven straight games and 18 of their past 23, the Washington Nationals have surged back to relevancy. They’ve been extremely inconsistent all year, but an ultra-talented core and World Series-winning manager are now thinking in concert and executing to perfection with a few weeks of the season to spare.
Sound familiar? It should.
The 2013 Nats have plenty in common with the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals.
Davey Johnson is Tony La Russa. Ryan Zimmerman is Albert Pujols. Jayson Werth is Lance Berkman. Jordan Zimmermann is Chris Carpenter. The Cincinnati Reds are the Atlanta Braves.
As a refresher, that St. Louis team overcame incredibly slim odds to qualify for the playoffs and then went on to clinch the World Series.
The Cards trailed Atlanta by 10.5 games for the National League wild-card lead on August 24, 2011. They trimmed the deficit to 4.5 games after beating the Braves on Sept. 11, at which point they only had 16 games remaining.
By comparison, on Aug. 19 of this summer, the Nats were precisely 10.5 games behind the Reds. Following both teams’ Sept. 13 results, the separation is…4.5 games. Washington has 15 games left on its schedule.
You can’t make this stuff up.
It’s not as if Johnson’s guys are benefiting from a bunch of lucky breaks. They’re just finally living up to the lofty expectations we bestowed upon them during spring training.
The Nats have outscored their opposition 128-83 during this 18-5 rampage. Zimmerman has clobbered nine home runs in an 11-game span. Denard Span owns the second-longest active hitting streak in the majors. Rafael Soriano has converted 10 consecutive save opportunities.
Unfortunately, this club didn’t reinforce itself for a late-season turnaround like those brilliant Birds did.
St. Louis addressed glaring weaknesses at shortstop and at the back end of the rotation by trading for Rafael Furcal and Edwin Jackson, respectively. Allen Craig was ready to break through into a semi-regular role, which made Colby Rasmus expendable.
Meanwhile, Washington general manager Mike Rizzo flipped veteran catcher Kurt Suzuki for a low-level pitching prospect last month, and by blinking at the wrong time, you may have missed the David DeJesus era. Rizzo shopped him to the Tampa Bay Rays after an awkward three-game stint.
A deep pitching staff enabled the Cardinals to finish off 2011 with a flourish, but the Nats never buffed up their stable of arms. Now, that neglect is coming back to bite them.
According to Amanda Comak of The Washington Times, left-hander Ross Detwiler still has a few hoops to jump through before returning to a major league mound. Mel Antonen tweets that flamethrower Stephen Strasburg was scratched from his start because of discomfort in his throwing arm. Ross Ohlendorf and Tanner Roark will fill in for the time being, so it’s difficult to take this team seriously.
The other half of this equation, of course, has to be an abrupt implosion by the Reds.
Washington won the season series, 4-3, and would therefore get home-field advantage should a 163rd game be needed to resolve a year-end tie for the second NL Wild Card. The Reds must also overcome a few tricky scheduling features. They have seven games to go on their current road trip and six total matchups with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
With that said, Cincy has ample experience when it comes to playing meaningful baseball down the stretch. It also helps to employ a mild-mannered manager like Dusty Baker to radiate positive vibes throughout the clubhouse.
For those who only trust tangibles, John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports that Johnny Cueto continues to progress from a lat strain and eyes an immediate return to the active roster. He has posted a 3.33 earned run average in nine starts this season and a 2.67 ERA dating back to 2011.
The St. Louis miracle we witnessed a couple of summers ago wasn’t unprecedented, and it certainly isn’t impossible to imitate.
However, the stars aren’t properly aligned for the 2013 Nationals to match that improbable accomplishment.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
