Fact: Max Scherzer struck out 11 batters over eight innings in the Washington Nationals‘ 3-2 win over the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday. It was Scherzer‘s 12th game this season with 10 or more strikeouts, the most in MLB.
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If Max Scherzer‘s American League Cy Young Award is beginning to feel lonely, it could soon have company.
In the wasteland that is the National League Cy Young race without a fully functioning Clayton Kershaw, anyone could claim this year’s award. From Madison Bumgarner to Johnny Cueto to Noah Syndergaard to Jake Arrieta to Jose Fernandez, there’s no shortage of strong-armed dudes vying for it.
But if anyone had forgotten about Scherzer, well, it’s suddenly easy to remember him after what the Washington Nationals ace did to the Baltimore Orioles on Thursday at Nationals Park. To stave off a four-game sweep, he paced the Nats to a 4-0 win with eight shutout innings in which he allowed two hits, walked nobody and struck out 10.
The finish was especially strong. Scherzer bore down and retired the final three Orioles he faced in noticeably angry fashion. Apparently, any Orioles fans upset about that have only themselves to blame.
“The O’s fans started making noise there in the eighth and it really kind of ticked me off,” he said afterward, per Ben Standig of CSN Mid-Atlantic.
The madness of this particular Max aside, we’re looking at a season that keeps getting better. Scherzer picked up another win to run his record to 14-7, lowered his ERA to 2.92 and the average against him to .191, and raised his innings to 182.0, his strikeouts to 227 and his strikeout-to-walk ratio to 5.16.
This is obviously Cy Young-caliber material. But whether any of it makes Scherzer an obvious front-runner is anyone’s guess. The only time there was a front-runner for the NL Cy Young this year was when Kershaw was healthy and leading the league in everything. That was a while ago, and now the NL Cy Young race is a different strokes/different folks kind of affair.
Scherzer leads the NL in innings and strikeouts, which are important, but he doesn’t lead other categories that voters gravitate toward. Arrieta leads with 16 wins, two more than Scherzer’s 14. Kyle Hendricks leads with a 2.19 ERA, a category in which Bumgarner (2.44), Syndergaard (2.61), Arrieta (2.62), Cueto (2.86) and Fernandez (2.91) are also ahead of Scherzer.
And keep in mind, there’s still more than a month of baseball left. Cliff Corcoran of Sports Illustrated was right when he wrote that this race could change drastically in September. We’re not here to hand Scherzer anything now, nor to promise with 100 percent certainty that he’ll get something come November.
What can be said now, however, is that Scherzer could be awfully tough to beat.
The veteran right-hander may not have the most wins or the best ERA among his fellow NL aces, but that’s OK. The former isn’t the deal-maker it used to be in Cy Young discussions, and the latter is a stat that doesn’t fully capture the sheer dominance of Scherzer’s 2016 season.
Those league-leading 227 strikeouts are a big reason why the .191 average against him is second behind only Arrieta (.183). There’s no ignoring the 25 home runs Scherzer has given up, but most of the contact that hitters have made against him has been quiet.
He entered Thursday with a 22.5 soft-hit percentage, second only to Hendricks (26.3) and Tanner Roark (24.1). And with a rate of 2.2 walks per nine innings, Scherzer hasn’t issued many free passes when he hasn’t been completely overwhelming hitters.
It’s times like these that nerds like me point to obscure statistics that tie everything up with a neat little bow. In this case, it’s “deserved run average.” It’s a Baseball Prospectus specialty that gets more in depth than metrics like fielding independent pitching (FIP) and expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) to cut through the nonsense that clouds ERA and get to a pitcher’s true performance level.
Here’s how the top of the DRA list looked among starters with at least 150 innings heading into Thursday’s action:
Just two pitchers ahead of Scherzer, neither of whom is in the National League. That, folks, is how you make a guy look good.
Or, you could opt for the much simpler route to appreciating Scherzer’s dominance.
His latest outing was the 15th time all season in which he’s lasted at least seven innings and given up no more than two runs. No other National League pitcher has more than 12 such starts. His 11 starts with at least 10 strikeouts, meanwhile, are two more than anyone else has. One of those, of course, was his record-tying 20-strikeout game against the Detroit Tigers back in May.
Scherzer didn’t peak with that game. He hit a rough patch in his two starts prior to Thursday’s outing, but he still has a 1.94 ERA over his last 11 starts. Rather than slowing down, he’s streaking to the finish.
Washington’s schedule will make it easy for him to continue this. The Nationals have the NL East’s only good offense, and the only non-NL East opponents they face the rest of the way are the Colorado Rockies, Pittsburgh Pirates and Arizona Diamondbacks. The Rockies have a scary offense, but they’re up next, and Scherzer will get to miss them.
Scherzer was an easy pick when he won the American League Cy Young as a Tiger in 2013, getting 28 of 30 first-place votes. Given the state of the race, it’s unlikely he’ll fare that well in this year’s NL Cy Young voting even if he does take it.
But make no mistake: He can win it.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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The Washington Nationals have placed pitcher Stephen Strasburg on the 15-day disabled list with right elbow soreness. It is uncertain when he will return to the rotation.
Continue for updates.
Nationals manager Dusty Baker told reporters Strasburg first mentioned his injury Saturday, saying he wanted to pitch through it. “But it’s not hero time yet,” Baker added.
The Nationals announced the roster move, noting A.J. Cole was called up in his place. Joel Sherman of the New York Post, citing a source, reported the injury “is not structural” and that the Nationals were being “proactive” to get Strasburg healthy for the stretch run and into the postseason.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today added the Nationals are “cautiously optimistic” Strasburg can return in two weeks.
Physical setbacks have always been a concern during Strasburg’s career, and his latest injury is no different.
The Nationals starter suffered an upper-back strain earlier in the season, was limited to 23 starts in 2015 and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2010. Washington also shut him down in early September during the 2012 season when it was firmly in the postseason race. The Nationals still won the National League East that year, but they didn’t have Strasburg for the stretch run.
When healthy, he is one of the most effective pitchers in the National League.
He made the All-Star Game in 2012, finishing with a 3.16 ERA and 197 strikeouts in 159.1 innings before being shut down. He also struck out 242 batters in 2014 and tallied 155-plus strikeouts in four straight years entering the 2016 campaign. Strasburg has yet to post a WHIP higher than 1.155 for an entire season in his career.
Thus far, he is 15-4 with a 3.59 ERA in 2016.
The Nationals will rely on Max Scherzer and Gio Gonzalez if Strasburg misses time. Scherzer won the 2013 American League Cy Young Award, and Gonzalez has finished with an ERA below 3.80 in each of the last four years for Washington.
The Nationals also have depth with Tanner Roark, and Yusmeiro Petit has starting experience and made an emergency start for Strasburg earlier this season.
While Washington has enough pieces in its starting rotation to survive this setback, it is a more dangerous contender when Strasburg is healthy.
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Jonathan Papelbon‘s tumultuous tenure with the Washington Nationals has come to an end. The Nationals announced he was officially released on Saturday.
ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick previously reported Papelbon requested his release from the Nationals.
The 35-year-old’s role with the Nationals significantly diminished in recent weeks after the team acquired Mark Melancon before the trade deadline.
Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post noted the move makes sense for both the Nationals and Papelbon because the team wanted to open up a roster spot—it brought up minor league pitcher Reynaldo Lopez—and Papelbon wanted to pitch in high-leverage situations.
ESPN’s Sarah Langs provided another practical reason for why the Nationals would want to get rid of Papelbon:
According to Rob Bradford of WEEI, Papelbon would be open to a return to the Boston Red Sox and is “prioritzing [the] best spot to succeed” to finish the season.
If Papelbon wants to pitch in late-game situations again, it likely won’t come with a playoff contender. He has been awful in Washington this season with a 4.37 ERA, 37 hits allowed, 14 walks and 31 strikeouts in 35 innings.
Since July 24, he’s allowed nine hits and eight earned runs in five appearances covering 3.1 innings.
The Nationals acquired Papelbon from the Philadelphia Phillies in July 2015. His tenure with the team will be remembered best for a physical altercation he had with Bryce Harper in the dugout during the final week of the season.
Papelbon was in a contract year. Washington will pay the remainder of his $11 million salary for 2016.
The Nationals hold a comfortable lead in the National League East and are preparing to make a playoff run. Moving on now from a player who didn’t want to be there is only going to help them finish the season strong.
Given his age and performance decline this season, Papelbon should consider himself lucky if he’s able to find a team that gives him a shot to pitch again in 2016.
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In Saturday’s 7-1 loss to the San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals right fielder Bryce Harper struck out three times and exited after the sixth inning with a stiff neck, per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post.
If that isn’t a metaphor for Harper’s 2016 season, nothing is.
The first-place Nats have plenty to smile about. Second baseman Daniel Murphy is on pace to win a batting title, and breakout catcher Wilson Ramos is hot on his heels. Speedy rookie Trea Turner is lighting up the basepaths. The starting rotation sports the second-best ERA (3.31) in baseball.
But Harper, the reigning National League MVP, has been largely absent from the party.
At the end of April, Harper had nine home runs and a 1.121 OPS. In the three-plus months since, he’s managed 11 homers and watched his OPS tumble to .812.
He’s been especially anemic since the All-Star break, posting a .134/.259/.209 slash line with three extra-base hits and 20 strikeouts in 19 games.
That’s wince-inducing. And it raises an uncomfortable yet unavoidable question: Was Harper’s MVP campaign an anomaly?
Early this season, the story was all about teams not pitching to Harper. By the end of May, he’d drawn 13 intentional walks, two shy of his career high. On May 8, the Chicago Cubs walked him six times in a single game, tying the all-time mark.
But as Harper’s production cratered, the free passes came less frequently. He’s received only three intentional walks since June 1, and his 18.3 walk percentage for the season is actually down slightly from last year’s mark of 19 percent.
Maybe the starkest disparity between Harper’s 2015 and 2016 stat sheets is his batting average on balls in play, which has plummeted from .369 to .237.
Before you chalk that up to bad luck, consider that Harper’s hard-contact rate has fallen from 40.9 percent in 2015 to 32.2 percent, while his soft-contact rate has climbed from 11.9 percent to 22.0 percent.
Lately, pitchers have been exploiting him with fastballs, as Sporting News’ Jesse Spector outlined:
According to data from Brooks Baseball, pitchers are particularly focusing on that fastball weakness lately, with Harper seeing “hard” stuff 63.76 percent of the time in July—the highest rate thrown to him in a full month since April 2014. Harper’s average exit velocities on those pitches dropped to an average of 89.1 mph in July, only the second time in 10 months of tracking that he’s been below 90.
On July 10, Harper insisted his approach isn’t broken.
“This is going to sound bad and people are going to look at it and say it sounds bad, but I’m really good at the plate,” he said, per Janes. “Of course guys have holes in their swings, but I don’t feel like I do. When I go up to the plate, I don’t want to think I have a hole or anything like that. I think I can hit any pitch.”
Confidence has been Harper’s calling card since he burst into the big leagues in 2012 as a brash 19-year-old wunderkind and claimed NL Rookie of the Year honors. So Nats fans should be heartened to hear he’s not throwing in the towel.
It’s easy to forget Harper is just 23 years old, an age when plenty of talented players are working out the kinks in the minor leagues. For perspective, Harper is only eight months older than Turner, who’s logged a scant 48 games in The Show.
In other words, don’t bet against Harper getting hot again. He’s simply too gifted for this current feckless stretch to continue unabated.
On the other hand, if you thought 2015 was the new normal, you may want to adjust your expectations. The reality is likely somewhere in between this protracted soft-contact slump and the guy who blew away his career bests in virtually every offensive category and posted the highest single-season OPS+ (195) of any active player.
Here, let’s stack Harper’s historic 2015 next to his numbers so far this season and his career averages:
A return to those career averages would make Harper an exceedingly valuable player and would boost the Nats’ chances considerably. It’s also probably closest to the real Harper.
The bottom line is this: There will be ups; there will be downs. There will be growing pains, even after everything he’s accomplished.
In fact, for all his bravado, Harper may be wrestling with the weight of expectations, pressing to meet the impossibly high standard he set.
“He tries to live up to all this,” Nationals hitting coach Rick Schu said, per Janes. “I think you just have to get back down to being a hitter.”
Harper may never again do what he did last season. But he can—and almost surely will—get back to being a dangerous, productive hitter.
So far, though, 2016 has been a serious, unquestionable pain in the neck.
All statistics current as of Aug. 7 and courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com, MLB.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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For much of the season, the leadoff spot has been a barren wasteland for the Washington Nationals.
Consider rookie Trea Turner an oasis in the nation’s capital.
We’re in small-sample territory, but after going 2-for-4 with a home run in Friday’s 5-1 win over the San Francisco Giants, Turner is hitting .321 with an .896 OPS in 20 games for the Nats.
He has also swiped eight bases without being caught and generally provided a lineup-topping spark for the National League East leaders.
That is quite a change of pace. The Nationals offense, which ranks among the top 10 in runs scored and OPS, has been strong on balance.
Other than Turner, however, Washington’s leadoff hitters have landed somewhere between anemic and abysmal.
In 256 plate appearances out of the leadoff spot, outfielder Ben Revere sports a .220/.271/.309 slash line. That’s unquestionably awful, but center fielder Michael Taylor has been just as bad with a .206/.248/.382 leadoff line.
Really, since center fielder Denard Span departed for the Giants as a free agent this winter, the Nats have been without an adequate leadoff option.
Now, Turner is providing the combination of speed, on-base capabilities and “sneaky pop”—to quote Nationals color analyst F.P. Santangelo, via the team’s Twitter feed—that make for an ideal table-setter:
Speaking of the Nats’ Twitter feed, here’s a clip they pushed out of Turner stealing home, which is the coolest thing you can do in a baseball game this side of a walk-off homer:
“I love speed,” manager Dusty Baker said of his vroom-vroom new toy, per MASN Sports’ Patrick Reddington. “You heard me say that in spring training. Speed kills. And it does a lot of things and it creates a lot of mistakes.”
A San Diego Padres first-round pick in 2014, Turner played the bulk of his minor league innings at shortstop. Since arriving in D.C., however, he’s logged time at second base and center field and looked more than passable. So add versatility to the “special skills” section on his resume.
Second baseman Daniel Murphy is on pace to win the NL batting title. Catcher Wilson Ramos is having a career year with a .332 average and 17 home runs. Veteran left fielder Jayson Werth has reached base in 36 consecutive games.
Turner, though, could end up being the most important Nationals hitter during the stretch run, as Washington seeks to push into October and atone for last season’s acrimonious flameout.
That’s especially true if reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper keeps up the disappearing act that has him toting a .235 average into play Saturday.
Then again, imagine if Harper gets hot. With Turner above him slapping the ball around the field and wreaking havoc on the basepaths, this Nationals attack would go from solid to downright scary.
“I think it’s just about knowing the game,” Turner said about his baserunning in May, per MiLB.com’s Michael Peng. “Knowing what the pitcher is going to do, knowing who’s hitting behind you and the counts. Just trying to relax out there. When you try to get jumps, you may end up doing stupid things and make a mistake. If you stay relaxed, I think you can take advantage of a lot of opportunities out there.”
There will be growing pains for Turner, as there always are for young players. The league will adjust. Then again, you know the cliche about speed not slumping. Even if his average ticks down, the 23-year-old has his legs to fall back on.
Here’s how ESPN.com’s Eddie Matz put it, calling to mind another legendary baseball speedster:
Cool Papa Bell was one of the speediest players in baseball history. Legend has it, he was so fast he once laced a line drive up the middle and the ball hit him in the butt sliding into second. So fast he could get out of bed, turn the lights out across the room, and be back in bed before it got dark. Trea Turner might not be quite that fast, but he’s close.
For much of the season, the Nationals have played without a true leadoff hitter. Now, they have one.
Catch him if you can.
All statistics current as of Aug. 5 and courtesy of MLB.com and Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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The Washington Nationals turned a triple play in Friday’s 4-1 win over the San Francisco Giants, marking the first time the franchise has done so since moving from Montreal to Washington in 2005, per ESPN Stats & Info.
The Montreal Expos last had one on September 9, 2002, leaving the franchise with a drought that lasted nearly 14 years.
Friday’s triple play was a great way to start, as it erased a bases-loaded, no-out rally in the eighth inning of a three-run game against a team the Nationals could very well end up fighting for playoff position.
It was also unique for the way it was turned, with first baseman Ryan Zimmerman catching a low line drive and stepping on the bag before firing over to third baseman Anthony Rendon for the first 3-3-5 triple play in MLB history, per MLB on Twitter.
Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford was the batter, but the real mistake was made by outfielder Denard Span, who for some reason ran from third base to home plate on contact, even though the ball was hit in the air.
The other player involved was Nationals relief pitcher Sammy Solis, who only faced the one batter and needed just two pitches to record three outs.
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There’s nothing wrong with protecting your prospects. If the Washington Nationals hadn’t held on to Trea Turner, they wouldn’t have beaten the Cleveland Indians on Wednesday.
The Nationals have Turner, Lucas Giolito and a whole bunch of other guys they wouldn’t trade for Aroldis Chapman.
They also have enough needs that they’re going to have to trade for someone before August 1’s non-waiver deadline. If not Chapman, then someone else.
If not now, when?
Heard that before? Maybe so, because Cubs president Theo Epstein used exactly those words in explaining why he traded big prospects for Chapman this week.
“We feel like we have a chance to do something special, but there’s a lot of work ahead,” Epstein told reporters, including Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. “It was tough to give up what we gave up, but if not now, when?”
The Nationals may not have 107 years of failure, the way the Cubs do, but the Cubs came closer to the World Series last year than the Nationals ever have. The Nats have had a 96-win season and a 98-win season, and they have a team that can win 95-plus games again, but one of these years, they need to turn talent into October success.
If not now, when?
The Nationals can be creative. They turned Turner into an outfielder because their infield was full and they needed another way to fit his speed and ability into the lineup.
On Wednesday, in his second day as a center fielder and still in his first month as the Nationals’ leadoff hitter, he drove in three runs in their 4-1 win in Cleveland.
He gave the Nationals a lead their bullpen could hold, and that’s not a simple task. This is a team that gave up six runs in the final two innings of a 10-6 loss to the San Diego Padres on Sunday, and three runs in the ninth inning of a 7-6 loss to the Indians on Tuesday night.
The Nationals didn’t absolutely have to get Chapman, but they do need to be creative enough to get someone.
Maybe that means coming up with the package that tempts the Kansas City Royals to part with Wade Davis, or one that could tempt the New York Yankees to deal Andrew Miller. Maybe it’s David Robertson, although he has four blown saves and a 4.35 ERA with the Chicago White Sox.
Maybe it’s even something different, like what Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post tweeted Wednesday night:
That is crazy, and it seems highly unlikely, but what would be crazier and probably even unlikelier would be to do nothing between now and Monday.
The Nationals weren’t comfortable with Drew Storen as their closer last year, so they traded for Jonathan Papelbon. There was no chance they were going feel comfortable with Papelbon, even before his four-run ninth inning on Sunday or his collapse Tuesday night.
Stats can be deceiving with relievers, but Papelbon’s 4.18 ERA and 1.423 WHIP aren’t. It’s time to go find something else.
Remember this past winter when the Nationals lost out to the Cubs for Ben Zobrist, they reacted by signing Daniel Murphy to play second base. Murphy hit his 20th home run of the season Wednesday, and in a season when Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth have struggled and Bryce Harper has hit .222 since April, Murphy has kept the Nationals on top in the National League East.
With Stephen Strasburg (who won again Wednesday) and Max Scherzer, the Nationals have a rotation built for October. They have a four-game lead over the Miami Marlins and a 5.5-game lead over the New York Mets, and according to the playoff odds on Baseball Prospectus, they have a 94.8 percent chance of making it to October.
Unlike last year, they have a manager who can get them there and win once he’s there. True, Dusty Baker doesn’t yet own a World Series ring as manager, but he’s taken seven teams into the postseason.
He took the San Francisco Giants to the World Series in 2002, and a year later, he brought the Cubs as close to the World Series as anyone else has since 1945.
For the record, you have to go 12 years further back to find the last time a Washington team made it to the World Series.
It’s been a long, long time, and it’s about time the Nationals did something to end that drought.
If not now, when?
Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.
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Fact: Stephen Strasburg lost to the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday, his first loss since September 9, 2015 (21 starts).
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The Washington Nationals played an 18-inning marathon against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday, marking the franchise’s longest regular-season game since 1989, back when the team was still known as the Montreal Expos, per ESPN Stats & Info.
With right-handed ace Max Scherzer taking the hill at home against Pirates rookie Chad Kuhl, it appeared the Nationals would have a significant advantage in Sunday’s contest as they tried to complete a three-game sweep coming out of the All-Star break.
However, Kuhl had different plans entirely, striking out five batters and allowing just one hit over six scoreless innings, eventually exiting with a 1-0 lead thanks to an RBI double from outfielder Starling Marte in the top of the sixth.
Scherzer otherwise held the Pirates scoreless over his seven frames, as he struck out seven batters while allowing six hits, a walk and the one run.
Despite the excellent outing, Scherzer was in line to take his seventh loss of the season until Nationals second baseman Daniel Murphy came through in the bottom of the ninth inning with a two-out, pinch-hit solo home run off Pirates closer Mark Melancon, who blew a save for just the second time in 29 tries this season.
Following eight scoreless innings that took a heavy toll on both teams’ bullpens, Marte came up big for the Pirates once again, launching a solo home run in the top of the 18th off Nationals reliever Oliver Perez.
The Nationals did manage a pair of singles in the bottom of the inning, but Jon Niese then struck out infielder Danny Espinosa to end the rally and finish out a 2-1 victory.
Though Sunday’s game was the Nationals’ lengthiest regular-season affair since the franchise’s Montreal days, the team did play an 18-inning classic in the 2014 National League Division Series against the San Francisco Giants, per ESPN Stats & Info.
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