Kuzul

Let us just get right down to business. The current temperature in Viera, Florida is 74 degrees and articles are popping up in all the local papers about spring training and spring break. Since I am a 41-year-old happily married man with four great kids, you will get the diary from spring training. My wife does not allow me near the beaches this time of year.

My name is Alan Zlotorzynski and I am one of three featured writers for the Washington Capitals here on the Bleacher Report. I am fortunate and blessed to live less than five miles from the Washington Nationals’ Spring Training complex in Viera, Florida.

Since the Bleacher Report has established itself as the No. 1 website for the voice of the fan, I am going to keep a Nationals spring training diary. I promise to deliver stories that one can only get from being less than five feet from their favorite Nationals on a daily basis during the spring.

I will take great photos and I am working on some interviews with some of the players that will be an integral part of Washington’s 2011 season.

I am currently trying to get credentialed (hint…hint…Bleacher Report) and will work almost daily to capture the best of the 2011 Washington Nationals before they head north in April.

If you have anything specific that you would like to read or see in a photo, please feel free to send me an email.

Check back tomorrow for my first report from spring training.

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When the Washington Nationals signed the aging Livan Hernandez to a minor-league contract following the 2009 season, the move was met with a yawn and a shrug.

Hernandez—who claimed to be 34 at the time—had just completed his fourth consecutive bad year in which he combined to go 46-47 with a 5.28 ERA.

The Mets had released him late in 2009, and the woeful Nationals soon signed him, giving him six starts at the end of the year.

He pitched even worse, allowing a 6.23 ERA with Washington along with a .314 batting average-against.

And yet—somehow—the Cuban defector found himself in the 2010 starting rotation and he flourished, finishing the season as the Nationals’ best starter. He pitched 200 innings, won 10 games and his 3.66 ERA was his lowest since 2003.

Shortly after the season ended, Hernandez was quickly re-signed to a one-year, $1 million contract. Manager Jim Riggleman announced formally yesterday afternoon what most of us already assumed: Livan will be the team’s Opening Day starter.

But will Hernandez perform one more year of sleight-of-hand magic and keep that oh-so-slow fastball out of the upper deck of National League ballparks, or will he revert back to his days when his ERA and his waistline were equally bloated?

We all remember Hernandez’ start last season, when for the first two months of the year he was one of the best pitchers in the league.

Even by mid-season, he was still formidable. The second half of the season, though, seemed pretty ugly.

So will the Nationals get the Livan of the first half of 2010 or the second half? Surprisingly, the numbers don’t suggest as much difference as I remember.

Let’s compare his statistics from 2010, from Opening Day to July 1 and from July 6 to the end of the season:

Games:

First-half: 17

Second-Half: 16

Record:

First-half: 6-4

Second-half: 4-8

Innings Pitched:

First-half: 112

Second-half: 100

Innings Per Game:

First-half: 6.6

Second-half: 6.2

ERA:

3.12

4.27

Batting Average/On-Base/Slugging Percentage Against

First-half: .260/.312/.376

Second-half: .280/.336/.748

Hits/Walks/Strikeouts Per Nine Innings:

First-Half: 8.8/2.7/4.4

Second-Half: 9.6/2.7/5.3

BABIP (Batting Average for Balls in Play):

First-half: .277

Second-half: .312

Quality Starts:

First-half: 12/17

Second-half: 10/16

Those first six weeks were pretty special for Hernandez.  In his first eight games, he had an ERA of 1.62, and he didn’t see his ERA go over 3.00 for good until July.

But really, his second-half numbers were certainly strong enough that the Nationals were in a position to win most of them.

And Livan did not wear down as I had initially thought. Take a look at his ERA breakdown over the course of the year:

First eight starts: 1.62

Second eight starts: 4.50

Third eight starts: 3.29

Last nine starts: 5.33

It wasn’t that his career 3,000 innings began to take their toll, but rather Livan Hernandez either performs at one extreme or the other.

In one three-game stretch in late August, Hernandez game up 20 runs in 14 innings. But in the four games that preceded them, he had a 2.28 ERA and a .255 batting average against.

And in the five games that followed, he crafted a 2.81 ERA and allowed just a .265 batting average against.

True, those last nine games of the season look a little ugly with that 5.33 ERA, and they seem the product of wear and tear on an aging pitcher.

But the last five of those nine games were superb. He allowed just a 2.81 ERA and a .269/.318/.403 slash line.

In other words, he finished the season as strongly as he started it.

This is purely a subjective assessment, but I think Livan has one more good year left in him, and the Nationals desperately need it.

Oh, his 10 or so wins won’t make much of a difference this year, but another 200-inning campaign will surely take the strain off the bullpen, as the young pitchers struggle to improve against major league hitters.

This time next year will find Livan Hernandez in someone else’s uniform, replaced by a healthy Stephen Strasburg. But what he did for the Nationals in 2010—and hopefully this year—will not be forgotten.

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In a couple of weeks, the next savior of the Washington Nationals will trot onto the rich green Florida grass in rural Viera and begin the process of trying to live up to both his reputation and his $126 million contract.

Jayson Werth, who in his four seasons in Philadelphia averaged .282/.380/.506 with 29 homers and 90 RBI in a 550 at-bat season, is expected to take over for Adam Dunn and bat cleanup for the Washington Nationals in 2011.

Anything less than .300/.380/.500 with 30 homers, 100 RBI and 20 or so stolen bases could be considered a failure.

I have never given the possibility of a Jayson Werth regression a second thought. Since he signed with Philadelphia four years ago, he has been remarkably consistent. There was no reason, I thought, to suggest that he wouldn’t do for the Nationals what he did for the Phillies.

Right?

But today—for the first time since his signing—it dawned on me that Werth was leaving that veritable band-box that is Citizens Bank Park and is moving to the far more spacious Nationals Park. Now, to be sure, the Nationals aren’t playing in RFK Stadium any more, but unlike in Philadelphia, high-powered bunts don’t go for home runs.

How will playing his home games away from Citizens Bank Park affect Jayson Werth? Was he—like so many other sluggers over the years—a product of his surroundings?

Here are Werth’s home and away splits since 2007—his first year with Philadelphia—expanded to a full 162-game major league season for easier comparison:

Home: .292/.386/.506, 31 home runs, 97 RBI

Away: .262/.379/.474, 26 home runs, 80 RBI

Most major league hitters have better statistics at home, some marginally, some significantly. It’s simply easier to get out of your own bed and head to a park where sheer repetition has made it easier to succeed at the plate.

So some of Werth’s better home stats are as a result of simply feeling more comfortable, and batting average and on-base percent are more a product of comfort than environment. But the additional home runs and RBI are probably the result of the closer outfield fences in Philadelphia.

My guess is that three or four of those homers, and perhaps 10 of the RBI, were rewards for playing at Citizens Bank Park. If that is the only difference in production for Werth in Washington this season, there is no reason to worry.

But there is more.

In his first two seasons with the Phillies, Werth’s statistics were better on the road. In 2007 and 2008, he hit 20 home runs and drove in 58 runs away from Philadelphia, while garnering just 12 homers and 50 RBI at home.

In his last two seasons—when Jayson Werth became a star—he was dominant at home. Though his batting average and on-base percent were the same (.270, .380), his slugging average was 125 points higher at home (.560). He also hit 15 more home runs at Citizens Bank Park and drove in 23 more runs (39, 104).

Why the difference? In his first two seasons, he was a part-time player, while he played every day in 2009 and 2010. Other than that, everything else seems the same.

Was there a bump in the numbers playing in Philadelphia?

Here are Werth’s home and away splits in his four seasons before he joined the Phillies, two in Toronto and two with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Again, they are expanded to represent a full 162-game season for comparison purposes:

Home: .250/.340/.410, 21 home runs, 90 RBI

Away: .245/.335/.430, 20 home runs, 82 RBI

Playing at the Rogers Centre and Dodger Stadium, his production at home and on the road was almost identical. This, of course, was a different Jayson Werth. He was still having injury problems and had not yet played enough at the major league level to polish his skills.

Still, he was the same hitter on the road that he was at home.

In the end, I think playing all those games at Citizens Bank Park did indeed tweak Werth’s offensive production. But by how much, I cannot say. I doubt there will be a significant drop off, but it will be obvious.

What can we expect from Werth in 2011? I think .290/.380/.490 with 26 homers and 100 RBI along with 20 stolen bases seems about right. No, those are not Adam Dunn numbers, but then Adam Dunn doesn’t have Jayson Werth’s defensive numbers either.

As long as Werth plays the defense we all expect and his offense is similar to what he hit in Philadelphia, Nationals’ fans and the team’s front office will be quite happy with his signing. Hopefully, the $126 million will never come up again.

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Since the franchise’s move to the Nation’s capital in 2005, the Washington Nationals have had relatively quiet off-seasons. In 2010, the Nats bucked that trend in a big way.

Gone are Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham and their unsightly attempts at defense. In are the smooth-fielding Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche.

If Ian Desmond and Nyjer Morgan can play up to their potential defensively, Washington should be one of the better defensive teams in the NL.

With the additions of Rick Ankiel, Jerry Hairston Jr., and Matt Stairs to Mike Morse and Wilson Ramos, the Nats may finally have a bench they can count on.

The National’s have had bullpen problems since that magical 2005 season, but 2011 looks to be the end of that nightmarish run.

The Nats’ already lethal triumvirate of Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, and Sean Burnett has been bolstered by the arrival of the flame-throwing Henry Rodriguez, who seems to have solved the control problems that plagued him in Oakland.

And don’t underestimate the recoveries of Jordan Zimmermann and Jason Marquis. After missing nearly all of last year with injuries, the two talented hurlers could be like found money in 2011.

If Livan Hernandez and John Lannan can pick up where they left off in 2010, the Nationals may have one of the deepest staffs in all of baseball.

Unfortunately, those are gigantic ifs.

For all the moves that Nationals did make, there was just as many that they failed to get done.

The team still lacks a top of the line starting pitcher, despite the best efforts of GM Mike Rizzo. And the Nationals will struggle to fill the power void left by big Adam Dunn.

Make no mistake, while the Nationals will be improved, they will still struggle to win 80 games in 2011.

But it should be fun to watch, despite the absence of a Mr. Strasburg. But fear not, he’ll be back in 2012—with his friend Bryce.

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If you have been following the Washington Nationals’ offseason, you are aware that the team has now entered Phase Two.

If not, here is an explanation of what exactly Phase Two entails by Nats GM Mike Rizzo from Jayson Werth’s introductory press conference: “It kind of exemplifies phase two of the Washington Nationals’ process. Phase one was scouting and player development, building the farm system. Now it’s the time to go to the second phase and really compete for division titles and championships.”

Phase Two started with a bang—a $126 million bang, at that.

Unfortunately, it ended with a dud. As shocking and exciting as the Jayson Werth signing was, the Nationals’ front office has to be disappointed with their failure to find a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, an offseason goal set by Washington’s brain trust.

Again and again the Nationals’ targets landed elsewhere, and the team was forced to settle on a trade for Tom Gorzelanny. While Gorzelanny may not be the ace Washington was looking for, he will provide the Nats with an extra arm in case of an injury, a luxury the Nats have not had since the move to Washington.

The Nats failure to land a front-line starter may have actually been a blessing in disguise. After Cliff Lee, the 2010 crop of free agent pitchers was relatively weak, and overpaying—whether it be in the form of money or prospects—may have stunted the teams development.

As the saying goes, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and neither were the 1927 Yankees, for that matter.

With Strasburg set to return in 2012 and Bryce Harper likely to make his major league debut in the same year, it would be foolish for the Nationals to put all their eggs in one offseason’s basket, especially an offseason preceding a transition year, which the 2011 season will be for the club.

The goal of any offseason should be to improve the team, and the Nationals have done that. Will it manifest itself in an improvement on last year’s 69 wins? I don’t know, but the franchise is in a better place than it was this time last year, that is for sure.

Yes, Washington overpaid for Jayson Werth, but they had to. And the effects of that deal will be felt for offseasons to come.

One, the Nationals obviously have a good relationship with Scott Boras, who represents some of the game’s biggest stars, which may give them the inside lane on his clients in the future.

Two, the Nationals are now officially players in the offseason—exemplified by the rumors that the Nats were close to signing the crown jewel of the offseason, Cliff Lee.

Lastly, the Nats’ front office has now shown that they are willing to spend, which will help keep players like Ryan Zimmerman and Stephen Strasburg—a Boras client—in Washington.

In Part 2—or should I say Phase 2—we’ll look at more of the Nationals offseason moves and their impact on the 2011 Nats.

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When the Washington Nationals signed Jayson Werth to a $126 million contract this past offseason, they plugged a hole in their outfield and brought in one of the few true five-tool players in baseball.

And because their first-round pick was protected thanks to their dismal 2010 record, all they had to give up was their second-round pick in this June’s MLB Amateur Draft.

And that’s not much, right? After all, over the past two seasons, Werth has averaged .282/.380/.519 with 32 home runs, 92 RBI and 19 stolen bases. A second-round pick might—or might not—make an impact at the major league level, but almost certainly won’t be another Jayson Werth.

Since their first season in Washington, the Nationals have received far more draft picks for lost free agents than they have given up.

2005 was an exception, however. Shortly after Jim Bowden took over as team general manager, he found himself without a left side of his infield. Tony Batista, who had batted .241-32-110 (but with a .272 on-base percent) signed with a team in Japan and Maicer Izturis was traded along with Juan Rivera to the Angels for Jose Guillen.

There was no one in the farm system ready to take over at either short or third and because Major League Baseball—then owner of the team—had gutted the minors in anticipation of contraction, there was not enough depth to trade prospects for established major leaguers.

And so Bowden entered the free agent market to fill the holes.

On November 16^th, 2004, Bowden signed Twins’ shortstop Cristian Guzman to a four-year contract worth $16 million.  Three days later, the Rockies’ Vinny Castilla agreed to a two-year, $6 million deal.

The two signings cost the Nationals their second- and third-round picks in 2005.

Was it worth it?

Castilla played in 142 games in Washington, batting .253/.319/.403 with 12 homers and 66 RBI. When Ryan Zimmerman was called up from the minors on September 1^st, Castilla moved to the bench. He was traded to San Diego that winter for Brian Lawrence, who never pitched for the Nationals.

Cristian Guzman’s first year in Washington was his worst of his career, batting .219/.260/.314, and he needed a hot September just to get over .200. He missed most of 2006 and all of 2007 due to injuries, but averaged .301/.327/.416 in 2008 and 2009. He hit .284 before being traded to the Texas Rangers last season.

Castilla’s one year with the Nationals was not worth a second-round pick and Guzman’s roller coaster ride in Washington was probably—barely—worth the lost draft choice.

Let’s see who the Nationals lost.

With the fifth pick in the second round, the Colorado Rockies chose outfielder Daniel Carte. His best year was in 2007 when he hit .283-14-71. Over his six-year minor-league career, Carte has averaged .257-16-75 over 550 at-bats.

If he makes it to the major leagues, it’s going to be as a reserve. The Nationals didn’t lose much by signing Castilla.

However, the signing of Guzman hurt.

With the Nationals’ third-round pick, the Minnesota Twins chose pitcher Brian Duensing, a left-handed pitcher who went 17-2, 3.66 in three years at the University of Nebraska. In five minor-league seasons, Duensing had a record of 33-36, 3.61, allowing 9.3 hits and 2.2 walks per nine innings while striking out 6.4. He joined the Twins in 2009.

Though he started in the bullpen, Duensing has joined the starting rotation and has excelled. He has a record of 15-5 with an ERA of 3.03. He has allowed just 8.5 hits and 2.8 walks per nine innings with a 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Last season he went 10-3 with a 2.62 ERA.

He is described as having “moxie” and never giving up. More than once, he argued with coaches in the dugout to let him go back out and pitch another inning. About the only negative is his size. At 5’11” and 175 lbs, stamina is a concern. But thus far, anyway, he has outperformed his expectations.

Look, I realize that just because the Twins chose Brian Duensing it doesn’t mean that the Nationals would have. But conversely, the Nationals—had they retained their second-round pick—might have chosen instead of Carte Yunel Escobar, who in four major-league seasons has averaged .289-11-64.

When the Nationals signed Vinny Castilla and Cristian Guzman, they knew what they were getting. There weren’t going to be any surprises (though one can say that Guzman’s 2005 season was very much a surprise). But high-round draft picks can either become a bust or a plaque in the Hall of Fame.

You just never know.

But man, wouldn’t Brian Duensing look really good in the rotation right now?

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There are two things that drive the modern day baseball player: winning a championship and signing a lucrative free agent deal. Jayson Werth accomplished the first goal as a member of the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies World Series championship team, and now he has achieved the second goal with a huge free agent deal with the Washington Nationals.

Unfortunately for fantasy owners, Werth is not going to be worth as much now that he has left the friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park and the protection of the Phillies line-up. 

The question is just how far will Werth’s value fall now that he has changed teams. He will no longer have Chase Utley and Ryan Howard hitting in front of him, which will result in him getting walked more. Opposing pitchers will not give him as many pitches to hit now that he and Ryan Zimmerman are the only two legit threats in the line-up. Adam Dunn’s presence would have given Werth more value; instead the team will likely rely on a young and untested player to play first. 

When Werth signed the huge long term deal with the team, many baseball writers and agents were outspoken to the fact that Washington paid too much for the outfielder. While we think Werth is a talented player who has a proven track record, the record was earned under very special circumstances in Philly. 

It is likely that a novice manager will draft Werth simply based on 2010 stats, expecting another 30/30 season with 100 runs scored and an RBI total approaching 100. That manager will most likely be disappointed by the all-star break and will likely either trade Werth at a discount or outright drop him to waivers.  

For the more advanced Roto player, I recommend looking elsewhere when building your outfield in 2011. Werth is a decent talent, however, without the variables he enjoyed in Philly he will not be a top 20 outfielder this season. Wait for the rookie manager to waste his high pick on Werth, and then pick him up off waivers mid-season. He will still have some value down the stretch; it just won’t be close to his value in years past.

This article was originally published on www.kramericasports.com, the home of free fantasy news, rankings, and advice.

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Coming to fans everywhere, the latest installment of Washington D.C. baseball…National Treasures: The Missing Strasburg. Starring the D-list celebrities of the fantasy baseball world: Livan “National League Harlot” Hernandez, Jordan “Not That Zimmerman” Zimmermann, and featuring Jason Marquis and John Lannan as trusty sidekicks.

Looking back at last year’s chapter of National Treasures, it seems like not many will buy into the 2011 version. 

There might be fantasy relevance with the Nationals’ pitching this season with Tom Gorzelanny doing his best President Obama impression. Coming to Washington D.C. from Chicago, Gorzelanny is a strikeout pitcher with two sub-4.00 ERA seasons under his belt.

It’s likely he’ll be towards the beginning of the Nationals rotation, but the question remains if Gorzelanny will be used primarily in relief like in Chicago each of the last two years. I think he is meant to stay in your league’s free agency this year, but in super deep or NL-only leagues, there is some potential.

From Florida to San Francisco to Washington to Arizona to Colorado to New York and now back to Washington, Livan Hernandez certainly gets around the National League. 

Usually bringing his ghastly ERA and bloated WHIP, Hernandez will have another crack at it with the Nationals this year. He actually had one of the better seasons of his career last year, posting a 3.66 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 22 quality starts.

However, he only managed to win ten games in 2010, and had one of his lowest K/9 ratios (4.8). I can’t see Livan in many 2011 lineups, especially with age not helping as he enters his 20^th season in the majors.

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By Todd Farino, www.thecloserreport.com

Well, here comes Drew Storen. 

Last February, I wrote about Storen and told my readers that he would eventually get called up, but wouldn’t be the most effective pitcher in his rookie season.  In 2010, Storen put up solid numbers with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. 

By the end of the season, he was closing for the Nationals and saved five games in seven chances. 

Clearly those weren’t the numbers expected by those who drafted him, but it was exactly what I expected.  Storen still had to mature as a major league closer even though he was one on the college level.  I also felt that just having a terrific curveball and fastball weren’t enough to close out games. 

He worked in his slider 28 percent of the time and has yet to gain confidence in his changeup. Once he develops that pitch, it will give him a second devastating out pitch along with his slider. 

I don’t like the idea of a closer using a curveball in the ninth inning.  Curveballs are in general inconsistent, can hang and are relatively unreliable as strikes.  Besides, hitters in the ninth aren’t looking for them and likely won’t swing unless they have too. 

Plus, you can’t throw nine or 10 straight curveballs.  Having a changeup that is good would make all the difference for Storen and will likely make his curveball more useful.  

With a third pitch in his arsenal and hopefully a fourth one down the road, Storen should continue to develop into an elite closer and by seasons end that will show.  I have Drew Storen ranked 19th on my 2011 Draft Kit with 33 saves. 

If he was on a better team, he could be capable of saving 38-40 games.

Beware that Storen will still face growing pains and have some moments during the season.  Don’t worry, when it’s all done and said the Nationals closer will put up worthy numbers. 

Draft him with confidence.

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Jayson Werth really loves No. 28. He feels such attachment to it, in fact, that when he sat down at the negotiating table with the Washington Nationals, he and his agent demanded that a clause in the contract guarantee him that jersey number. The Nats obliged, much to the dismay of first baseman/outfielder Mike Morse, who wore the number in 2010.

Baseball history is littered with strange clauses like these: When a team wants to get a deal done quickly or is truly desperate to win over a free agent, they frequently throw in strange incentives to make their offer more appealing. Werth loved his uniform number, which might seem odd, but wait until you see what sealed the deal for these other 10 players.

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