Kuzul

The Washington Nationals have been adding players to their team who the cellar-dwelling Pittsburgh Pirates have rejected at one time or another. These are players there were among the most volatile, but also among the most promising ones on their original team. And their specific quirks, plus those of Washington, make them particularly useful to the Nationals.

As I believed at the time, the Nats got the better of the Burnett and Nyjer Morgan for Joel Hanrahan and Lastings Milledge deal in the summer of 2009.

It’s easy to see why the Pirates preferred the “sabermetrically” superior Hanrahan over Burnett. The former looks better on the “sabermetric” variables of home runs, walks and strikeouts, and on FIP (a “synthetic” ERA using these variables).

But Burnett gives up fewer hits on balls in player (BABIP) and therefore has the lower actual ERA. Maybe he’s been “lucky” in this regard. And maybe he knows something we don’t.

The Pirates rightly feared the Morgan would collapse in 2010. But so did Milledge, in a much bigger way.The Bucs wanted Milledge because his minor league record suggested that he had a higher ceiling.

But Morgan usually has a high batting average and on-base percentage (lacking only power) and can also defend well. The fact that both offense and defense suffered in 2010 suggests that he was having a bad year for pyschological, not physical reasons. His year-end outburst suggests that.

But Morgan, not Milledge, is the one with the five win above replacement (WAR) ceiling. If he rebounds in EITHER of these two categories in 2011, his value rises from one to three WAR. He could go back to five WAR if he fully regains both attributes. Of the two, the offensively competent Nationals could benefit more from Morgan’s defense, which is easier to recover.

Adam LaRoche is a replacement for Adam Dunn at first base. The two Adams both hit around .260, and both drive in about 100 runs in a year. Dunn gets there with more power, i.e. with about 50 percent more home runs. But LaRoche is a MUCH better defender, meaning that his overall value is about one game higher than Dunn’s. And this for a saving in salary.

LaRoche’s problem? He plays a lot better in the second half of the season than the first, a pattern exhibited by only 3 percent of all baseball players. He is a replacement level producer in the first half and a star in the second half.

That pattern might be an advantage for his new team. Washington played relatively well in the first half in 2010, flirting with .500, then crumbled in the second half. La Roche might give the Nats a lift when it is most needed.

The salary savings were used partly to sign Jayson Werth. I don’t like his SEVEN-year contract for $126 million, or $18 million per year.

But Werth has been producing at the $20 million level for three years now. A FOUR year contract for $18 million per would probably be okay. But the likely overpayment for the three “back” years are a problem for a new (six-year) baseball “generation.”

The most recent acquisition is Tom Gorzelanny, at one time the Bucs’ No. 2 starter, who might be “No. 2” caliber in Washington, behind Livan Hernandez but ahead of John Lannen and Craig Stammen.

Gorzelanny was a confusing, frustrating pitcher who the Pirates never understood. I’ll make things simple by noting that his ERA, over the years, seems to converge on 4.00.

But Gorzelanny gets there in a strange way. Part of the time, he is a pitcher with a 2.50 ERA, and part of the time, his ERA is more like 6.50, so his “4.00” is a weighted (toward the good side) average of the two extremes.  As a Pirate fan, I have a recollection of him pitching well every OTHER game (or just a bit more).

Suppose he pitches 10 good games out of 20. The Nats hit well enough to win most (perhaps nine) of them. They will also be able to win a fraction (say three) of the 10 bad games he pitches. If Washington can win 60 percent of the games started by Gorzelanny, they will have gone a long way to becoming a winning team.

And even future stars like Steve Strasburg and Bryce Harper can be considered Pirate “rejects.” That’s because the Pirates lost the “race to the bottom” for the first overall draft pick in 2008 and 2009.

If these players make a big impact in 2012, just when the others mentioned above might be hitting their stride, the Washington Nationals might be a team to contend with next year. And early signs of this might be apparent even in 2011.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

With the sixth pick in the 2011 Major League Baseball Amateur Draft, the Washington Nationals select …

…Taylor Jungmann?

Maybe.

While it is way too early to be making this kind of prediction, I’m going to anyway. And really, it does make a lot of sense.

The Pirates have the first pick and should take the consensus best player in the draft, third baseman Anthony Rendon. Pitchers Gerrit Cole (UCLA), Matt Pruke (TCU), Dan Norris (high school), and outfielder George Springer (UConn) seem to be the five best players in the draft.

That should leave Jungmann available and the Nationals on the board.

Nationals’ General Manager Mike Rizzo likes tall pitchers with power fastballs. Jungmann is 6’6” and has a fastball that consistently hits 93-95 mph. However, it’s more a “show me” pitch than an “out pitch.”

His curveball gets more swing-throughs than his fastball.

He has a solid slider that should one day be “devastating”, as baseballrumormill.com describes it. Like Ross Detwiler, though (who is also tall and lanky), his mechanics are unusual, and at times, cause him to lose his rhythm.

But that three-quarter delivery unnerves right-handed batters. It leaves Jungmann’s hand and heads straight for them. But just as the knees begin to buckle, it moves back over the plate.

In two years at Texas, Jungmann has gone a combined 19-6 with a 2.01 ERA, allowing 6.1 hits and 3.3 walks per nine innings while striking out 9.7. He’s called cold and heartless on the mound, in the Bob Gibson and Roger Clemens “I’d bean my own mother if it meant getting a win” mode.

Jungmann is mature and polished, and if he can get his mechanics a little more under control, it wouldn’t take long before he would be ready for the major leagues.

If God finally shines some sunlight down on the Nationals, the future could be quite bright for Washington’s team. Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann should lead the rotation for years.

Sammy Solis—last year’s second-round pick—has a strong fastball, good breaking ball and excellent change. He commands all three very well. He was described before last season’s amateur draft as a No. 3 starter, without a terribly high ceiling but polished enough to make it to the major leagues in a year or so.

Cuban defector Yunesky Maya’s poor showing with the Nationals last September was General Manager Mike Rizzo’s fault according to Rizzo himself. Maya pitched well in the minors last season but wasn’t prepared for Major League opposition. But in the just completed Dominican Winter League, he had a 1.32 ERA in eight starts with an unbelievable 42:9 strikeout to walk ratio.

He should be a quality fourth-starter for the next three or four years.

The fifth starter could be former first-round pick Ross Detwiler or any one of several minor league pitchers that include:

A.J. Cole: Cole would have been a first-round pick in 2010 but his scholarship to the University of Miami scared away most teams. The Nationals grabbed him in the fourth-round and gave him first-round money to sign. He has a mid 90’s fastball and a great curve and change.

Tom Milone: A 2008 10th-round pick, he has been sensational in his three minor league seasons, going 25-16, 2.98, 9.0/1.7/.7.6 and a 1.18 Whip. He’s not a top-10 prospect, but all he does is pitch well and win.

Daniel Rosenbaum: Taken in the 22nd round in 2009, he’s pitched even better than Malone, going 9-8, 2.19, 7.9/2.5/7.6 in 33 starts.

That’s a pretty good pool of talent that will be available in a couple of years. And if the Nationals are able to draft Jungmann, it will make the back of the rotation even stronger.

And really, wouldn’t it be cool to have to starting pitchers with their last name ending in double-N?

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

My big knock on the Washington Nationals’ offseason so far has been their failure to upgrade their starting rotation or bullpen. I just don’t understand the logic of adding a fringe star in Jayson Werth and an above average first baseman in Adam LaRoche, but not improving the weakest links of their team.

It took them awhile, but finally the Nationals have added some starting pitching.

The Nationals have acquired LHP Tom Gorzelanny from the Chicago Cubs for three minor league prospects. Those prospects are OF Michael Burgess, RHP A.J. Morris and there will be one more pitcher going to the Cubs.

In Gorzelanny, the Nationals add some much needed depth to their starting rotation. As a starter, Gorzelanny had a 4.22 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and 7.8 K/9 in 23 starts. Overall, he was good for a 2.3 WAR.

While his stats might not seem sexy, his 2.3 WAR would have been good for second amongst all National League starting pitchers in 2010. Only Livan Hernandez and his 3.0 WAR would have been better than Gorzelanny last season.

What Gorzelanny brings to the Nationals is a “known.” Right now, the Nationals have a bunch of unknowns in their starting rotation. Hernandez is 100 years old, Jason Marquis is coming off of surgery, John Lannan has been really up and down, and Stephen Strasburg will start the year on the DL.

At least with Gorzelanny, the Nationals know he can take the ball every fifth day. Now, what comes out of Gorzelanny’s arm is a different story, but the Nationals need guys that can help them be at least competitive on a day-to-day basis and Gorzelanny can do that.

For the Cubs, after acquiring Matt Garza last week, they really didn’t need Gorzelanny. He was the odd man out in Chicago.

What this trade does for the Cubs is allow them to replenish their farm system. They aren’t getting the caliber of prospect back from the Nationals that they gave to the Tampa Bay Rays, but Morris and Burgess should provide some much needed organizational depth.

According to Baseball Prospectus, Burgess was the seventh rated prospect in the Nationals’ system. He is a 22-year-old, big hitting right fielder that has the tools to become an every day right fielder in the Major Leagues. However, Keith Law doesn’t see Burgess as anything more than a fourth outfielder in the Major Leagues.

Morris was the 17th-ranked prospect in the Nationals’ organization by Baseball Prospectus. He has a good sinker/slider combination, but doesn’t project as anything more than a middle reliever.

As soon as the third prospect that is going to the Cubs is named, I will update this post.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Are you disappointed in how the Nationals’ offseason went?

So many seem to be, suggesting that the team’s relative inaction was the result of an ongoing malfeasance of management that still carries the stink of the Jim Bowden era.

But really, that isn’t true at all. All the non-deals left the team better off in the long run. Why wait all these years for the fruits of the farm system to ripen and then block their entry to the major leagues?

For reasons I don’t understand, some major leaguers with average-or-slightly-above histories have been become pearls of great price for the Nationals. Not long after the end of the season, the team made an offer to the Rockies’ Jorge de la Rosa that was much larger than what Colorado offered.

And yet he still signed with the Rockies.

De la Rosa is 29. He will be well into his 30s when the Nationals’ kids learn their craft. In seven seasons, he has won just two more games than he lost and has a 5.02 ERA. And please don’t buy into all the “Mile High” warped stats claptrap. His career road ERA is 4.76, just a little better than his home 5.02 mark.

He strikes out eight batters per nine innings. Wow. Cool. He also walks 4.5 batters per nine.

Who would he have replaced? John Lannan? Lannan is four years younger but has pitched just 100 innings fewer than de la Rosa. He only strikes out 4.6 batters per nine innings but only walks 3.3. His WHIP (base runners per inning) is 1.41, less than de la Rosa’s 1.52.

And yet de la Rosa signed a two-year deal for $21.5 million with a possibility of a third year totaling $32 million. Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post reported that de la Rosa left $30 million on the table when he turned down the Nationals’ offer.

Lannan will probably make $1 million or so in 2011. Are de la Rosa’s extra 3.4 strikeouts per nine-innings worth $10 million more per year? Would he really give the Nationals a better chance to win than Lannan?

The stats say no. He just looks better on the mound.

Former Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke almost became a National. The Nationals agreed to ship four of their kids—a package that likely included Jordan Zimmermann and Danny Espinosa—and then offered Greinke a long-term extension, but he said no.

He wanted to play for a winner, like…Milwaukee?

At 26, Greinke is the right age to build around, but is he really a No. 1 starter? Over his seven major league seasons, he has a 3.82 ERA and a 9.1/2.3/7.6 slash line. But those include a magnificent 2009 season when he went 16-8 with a 2.16 ERA.

But in his other six years, Greinke’s record is very pedestrian at 44-59, 4.32. Last season—the season after his Cy Young Award—he went just 10-14 with a 4.17 ERA.

Livan Hernandez—who I am not suggesting has the same talent as Greinke—also won 10 games last season but with a lower 3.66 ERA. And J.D. Martin, who may not even make the team in 2011, had a lower ERA in 2010 then Greinke.

Would the Nationals have been that much better if Greinke and de la Rosa topped the rotation in 2011 while costing the Nationals almost $30 million a year?

If nothing else changes, the Nationals will likely start the season with Jason Marquis, John Lannan, Jordan Zimmermann, Yunesky Maya and either Ross Detwiler or Livan Hernandez in the rotation.

Greinke and de la Rosa have averaged a combined 22 wins over a 162-game season. Last season, Hernandez and Lannan—the two most likely to lose their spot in the rotation—won 18 games.

The Nationals would have been much poorer with Greinke and de la Rosa but not that much better.

Carlos Pena also snubbed the Nationals and took his .196 batting average to Chicago. Derrek Lee, the man Pena replaced, also bypassed Washington and now the Baltimore Orioles have a .260 hitting first baseman.

Last season, the two combined to average .229-23-82. The Nationals had to “settle” for Adam LaRoche, who is four years younger than Lee and two years younger than Pena. He “only” hit .261-25-100.

Let’s see, who else? Oh yes, the Nationals also didn’t sign Carl Pavano, who is 34 and has averaged a 5.06 ERA since 2005.

And of course, they didn’t get Matt Garza, who was traded to the Chicago Cubs for the equivalent of Jordan Zimmermann, Derek Norris, Danny Espinosa and a lesser weight prospect.

After the season, several reports suggested the Nationals could get Garza for Tyler Clippard, Ian Desmond and a prospect. That made sense.

What Garza would have cost the Nationals is madness.

Yes, it is frustrating that the Nationals’ past is hindering its future. I have actually supported the team’s build-from-within-and-why-spend-money-now-when-it-won’t-matter philosophy. I never considered that it would have caused the team to become caustic to so many players.

The roster as currently constituted should be good enough to win 73-75 games this season, a few less if Danny Espinosa and Mike Morse falter, a few more if they succeed and Stephen Strasburg returns in August.

Come this time next year, the Nationals should be able to sign whoever they want if the dollars are right. I doubt the free agent class of 2011/2012 is going to go “ooh” and “yuck” when the team comes calling.

But don’t feel bad for the Nationals as spring training approaches. It was addition by subtraction. They got better by not signing all those players.

Really.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The hot stove is starting to cool as we ready for spring training. I know we are still six weeks away, but I can dream. So let’s stoke that fire a bit with more prospect talk. This series on prospects will cover a wide range of players as well as positions. We’ll cover sleepers as well as some of the more obvious stars of the future.

The next prospect in the series was the No. 1 pick in the 2010 draft. Bryce Harper was selected by the Washington Nationals with the intention of turning him into a power-hitting corner outfielder. His power was never in question, but he’d end up sitting once or twice a week if he continued as a catcher, not to mention the constant wear on his body.

The 6’3” Las Vegas native weighs in at 205 pounds. He’s just 18 years old and seems to have a very bright future ahead of him. But will he realize that potential?

Harper followed an unconventional path to the pros by earning a GED after his sophomore year of high school and then enrolling at College of Southern Nevada for a season. At CSN, Harper posted a slash line of .443/31 HR/98 RBI/20 SB in 66 games. After he dominated lesser competition, the Nationals invested in Harper and made him the offensive face of the franchise.

His first professional action was in the 2010 Arizona Fall League. There, he posted a .343/1 HR/7 RBI/6 R/1 SB line in just 35 at-bats. He is likely to start 2011 in Single-A, and if all goes well, finish in Double-A Harrisburg.

By leaving high school so early, Harper showed a willingness to challenge himself and his skills. His youth and brashness are perceived by many as arrogance and entitlement. Many see him as the kind of guy who could be a negative entity in the clubhouse. But his baseball skills are unquestionable.

As a high school freshman, Harper hit .599/11/67 and as a sophomore he hit .626/14/55. After his sophomore season, Harper was the first-ever sophomore named Baseball America’s High School Player of the Year award and Sports Illustrated called him, “the most exciting prodigy since LeBron James.” Then, after dominating JUCO, Sports Illustrated dubbed him “baseball’s chosen one.”

That’s the kind of stuff that makes any teenager get a big head.

By trading away two years of high school for a chance to fly to the top of the draft board, Harper gave up the chance to grow up under normal circumstances, which could explain why he lacks the social skills to be a good teammate. Many professional scouts see this as a serious flaw in his makeup. Some call him a bad guy and others call him a jerk. These aren’t just a few stray opinions; they are founded in the fact that he taunts opponents on the field and shows a serious heir of entitlement.

The makeup issue is one that makes you wonder if Harper has the work ethic to succeed at the major league level. Others have fallen by the wayside as players who were just too arrogant and have flopped as pros.

But does a player have to be a good guy or a clubhouse leader to be successful on the ball field? The stories of Ty Cobb’s antics still live on almost 100 years after his retirement, Albert Belle was considered the scariest guy of his era, and Manny Ramirez has been called a cancer by almost every team he played with—but they are all considered to be amongst the elite of their day.

The issue also comes up about the personality trait that drives him. As long as he has that edge, he will likely continue to push himself to be better. But what happens if he becomes a nice guy and a clubhouse leader? Will that drive still push him? As long as he has the willingness and ability to work at becoming a better ball player, his personality will likely not come into consideration.

Another question to ponder is whether he will flame out early. With such a drive at an early age and groomed by his father to be superstar baseball player, will he burn out before reaching his full potential, a la Todd Marinovich?

Bryce Harper is a teenager with a ton of talent and an attitude to match. Can he use that attitude to make himself better like his hero Pete Rose, or will he let it consume him? The Southern Nevada coaching staff had no problems with his behavior on the field, so his fantasy outlook should be fine, but he may in time turn out to be another Manny Ramirez and wear out his welcome long before his talents do.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

A year ago, there was a great void at catcher for the Washington Nationals. It was like a black hole, a huge expanse of nothingness with nary a star in sight.

Brian Schneider seemed to be the answer when the team moved from Montreal but did little in his three seasons with Washington.

In 2009, Josh Bard and Wil Nieves got most of the at-bats but combined to hit just .240/.305/.330.

But in a month, pitchers and catchers will report to spring training and it seems that the Nationals now have an embarrassment of riches behind the plate.

Well, that’s a little hyperbolic, but at least they have three major league catchers to choose from, and that wasn’t planned.

General Manager Mike Rizzo fully expected “Pudge” Rodriguez to split time with Wilson Ramos, who was acquired at the trade deadline last season for reliever Matt Capps.

Two roster spots, two players. It seemed easy.

But then something amazing happened.

The last “future catcher” of the Nationals—Jesus Flores—returned from the baseball dead late last season and seems ready to again play baseball.

Now what?

To be sure, Rodriguez will come North with the team. After an off year in 2009, Rodriguez bounced back enough last season to give the Nationals a steady presence behind the plate. In 400 at-bats, he hit .266/.294/.347 and made just four errors in 102 games.

Ramos, baseball’s No. 58 prospect last year, batted .278 with the Twins and Nationals and has an above-average glove. When the trade was made, it was with the expectation that by the upcoming All Star break, he would be the team’s starting catcher. Ease in the prospect, ease out the Hall-of-Famer.

But does anyone remember how good Jesus Flores was?

I had never heard of Flores before the 2006 Rule V draft, but front office assistant Davey Johnson certainly had. He had seen him play for the Mets’ Class-A Florida State League entry and bugged then GM Jim Bowden to take him in the draft if available.

As a 21-year-old, Flores had batted .266-21-70 for Port St. Lucie with 32 doubles and a .335 on-base percentage. He led the league in home runs, was eighth in doubles, 14th in RBI and 10th in OPS.

He made just four errors all season and threw out almost half of those attempting to steal.

So why would such a good player be left unprotected?

Because no general manager in his right mind would take such a young and raw player—especially a catcher—and force him to sit on the major league bench for an entire year.

Washington Senators fans—old ones like me—remember Harmon Killebrew who had to remain on the major league roster as an 18-year-old because of similar rules, getting just 104 at-bats over two seasons before being sent to the minors for seasoning.

No one is stupid enough to let that happen again. That’s why Flores was left unprotected.

Of course, stupid and Jim Bowden just seem to go together quite well.

Said Baseball America the next day, “The best prospects lost in the major league phase include catcher Jesus Flores from the Mets to the Nationals, where new manager Manny Acta—who came over from the Mets—should be familiar with Flores. Still, it’s hard to imagine a catcher jumping from high Class A to stick in the major leagues. Then again, these are the Nationals.”

And from Metscentric.com, “The Mets also lost possibly their best catching prospect in Jesus Flores who was taken by Washington in the Rule 5 Draft. Flores is a few years away and the Mets are probably expecting Francisco Pena to eventually overtake him as a prospect. They may even get Flores back, but I still think it was a mistake to leave him exposed when they had roster space.”

Mlb.com’s Jonathan Mayo said that he was “very happy” with the pick and believed that the Nationals had found their “catcher of the future.” He said that Bowden was doing a solid job of finding “top-flight talent” in less than conventional ways.

Surprisingly, the Nationals didn’t hide him all that much in his first season in the major leagues. The 22-year-old batted .244/.310/.361 with four homers and 25 RBI. Expand those numbers over a full season and he would have batted .244-12-75.

But he just hasn’t been healthy since.

He started having headaches, suffered a severe ankle sprain, strained his calf, and that was just in 2008.

The following year, he injured his shoulder and missed more than 100 games. Then even before the 2010 season started, he tore his labrum and was out for the year.

Flores spent much of last summer slogging through physical therapy, healthy enough to be on the diamond but still unable to throw a ball to second base. When the Ramos trade was announced, he realized that he was now an afterthought to the Nationals.

And then—just like that—Flores got healthy. He played in 25 games in the just completed Dominican Winter League, hitting .322/.365/.460 with two homers and 16 RBI.

If he’s healthy, the Nationals have two young starting catchers. So now what?

His scouting report is glowing. “He boasts a great arm and can singlehandedly curb the running game and a solid hitting stroke and power potential. He is a quality receiver. He is a talented catcher with all-around upside when healthy.”

Compare that to Wilson Ramos: “Has an ideal catcher’s build. Can hit for average and also displays some home run power. His defense his first rate.”

The Nationals, then, may have two young catchers capable of being quality starters, both with a great glove and an above average bat.

Oh, and they have a future Hall-of-Famer as well.

If healthy, Flores is my preference. He has a similar bat with more power and a little better defense.

My guess is that—playing every day—Flores can hit .275-20-75 batting sixth while Ramos is more of a .270-15-55 hitter more suited for batting seventh.

Need proof?

Add up all of Jesus Flores’ major league at-bats and it equals one full major league season: .260-16-99, 30 doubles, 3 triples and a .313 on-base percent.

It makes no sense to keep both players, but because of his injury history, Flores has little trade value. Ramos, on the other hand, is worth one near All Star closer, Matt Capps proved that.

Should the Nationals play it safe and keep Ramos, a very good catching prospect or trade him and keep Flores, who has already shown that he is a quality major league catcher when healthy?

My guess is we’ll know sometime this spring.

But of course, this is all short-term conjecture.

The next great “catcher of the future” is Derek Norris, of course.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

I have seen some rejoicing by Nats fans over Adam LaRoche’s new deal with the team. While two years at roughly eight million dollars each seems reasonable for him, I am not convinced he is as good an upgrade at first base as he is often regarded.

Two points stand in his favor: when compared to the departing Adam Dunn, LaRoche is not an atrocious fielder, and he hits for a decent average.

The second point is not really much of a point because LaRoche has been much worse at reaching base than Dunn throughout his career. In addition, swapping the two is more or less choosing between ten extra home runs or ten extra doubles, except the doubles guy doesn’t walk as much.

Both players have at least 3,800 plate appearances to their name (Dunn has over 6,000), so that’s enough of a sample size to simply be able to look at the two stats side by side. LaRoche’s .271 career average is 21 points higher than Dunn’s, but his OBP is .339 (42 points lower than Dunn). So, while LaRoche has been more likely to make contact with the ball and get on base that way, Dunn has been better overall at not making an out.

LaRoche has walked a little more than nine percent of the time in his career, a figure that spiked to around 10 percent when he was the only good hitter on the Pirates for almost three years. Dunn’s walk rate was a career-low 11.9 percent in 2010 though he has never really had any significant protection in a lineup. Dunn has five seasons of 100 or more unintentional walks. LaRoche only managed 60 walks twice in parts of seven seasons.

A lot of people might site Adam Dunn as someone who would have been pitched around a lot whereas Adam LaRoche probably would not have been. Both played for some bad teams. If pitchers were afraid of either of these hitters, there was often no reason to pitch to them. While LaRoche did tend to see a slightly higher percentage of pitches in the zone, he also tended to swing at more pitches out of the zone.

Percentage of pitches in strike zone from 2004 to 2010:

LaRoche: 56.4, 50.7, 50.7, 48.1, 49.9, 45.8, 44.8

Dunn: 51.9, 49.3, 48.7, 47.3, 45.5, 45.6, 41.4

For his career, LaRoche has seen 48.8 percent of his pitches in the zone. Dunn has seen 47.1 percent of his. This is not a significant enough difference to account for a difference of roughly eight percent in their career walk rates. So, I would conclude that both hitters have been pitched around a bit due to spending time on bad teams.

While Dunn clearly has the better eye, both strike out plenty. Last year, for the Diamondbacks, LaRoche struck out 172 times. Remind you of anyone?

As we know, making contact, even if it isn’t as likely to be a home run, still leaves open the possibility of making a productive out. So we cannot tip the scales entirely in Dunn’s favor. If the Nationals are able to get Nyjer Morgan, Ian Desmond, and Ryan Zimmerman on base, Adam LaRoche may find himself in a lot of situations where he just needs a fly ball or a grounder to the right side.

So, while LaRoche has been better at making contact throughout his career, he hit only one point higher than Dunn in 2010. I do believe .260 was probably Dunn’s ceiling (and I put him down at .250 or so in 2011) and .261 is probably something of an off-year for LaRoche (I’d put him around .275) but this isn’t Ichiro vs. Andruw Jones.

Power-wise, the two just aren’t in the same class. Adam Dunn averaged just over 39 home runs over the past five years. LaRoche averaged just over 25. Both players were in their prime (they were born three days apart), and the difference in home ballparks probably can’t account for the entire fourteen home run difference.

Fangraphs tells me Adam Dunn is actually faster than Adam LaRoche. Neither should be expected to steal any non-defensive-indifference bases, but perhaps LaRoche is going to clog the bases even more than Dunn has. This is, perhaps, a minor complaint since both were brought in with the task of driving in Nyjer Morgan and Ian Desmond, not stealing bases.

The best thing about signing Adam LaRoche is his defense. Is that defense enough to outweigh the decline in offense? I guess we’ll have to see how 2011 pans out. In 2010, LaRoche’s defense was worth about 8 runs more than Dunn’s overall. His WAR was still lower, however.

The 2011 Washington Nationals look like an improved team when compared with their 2010 counterpart. Zimmerman-Werth-LaRoche is a nice trio for the middle of the lineup, and this team should finally crack the 70-win mark at least. I guess we can say that, if Dunn had to be lost (I don’t know that he did), LaRoche is not a horrible choice to replace him. But we shouldn’t be considering him an upgrade overall.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Bryce Harper seems like a dream player out of a video game.  His numbers are unbelievable and he doesn’t look to be stopping anytime soon.  After being drafted number one by the Nationals in 2010, Harper has a lot of expectations to live up to as he begins his path to the big leagues.  Harper hopes to make the Nationals roster and make his major league debut as soon as he can, and here’s ten reasons why he will in 2011. 

Begin Slideshow

Can someone please tell the Washington Nationals they need starting pitching? Do they not realize that their No. 1 starter is Livan Hernandez?

I really have no idea what the Nationals game plan was or is this offseason. They have a garbage starting rotation, but go out and sign Jayson Werth to one of the more ridiculous contracts in baseball history. But then trade one of their few proven producers, Josh Willingham, to the Oakland A’s. Then they give Adam LaRoche a two-year contract and $15 million to play first base.

What?

They remind me of those Tampa Bay Devil Rays teams back in the late ’90s. Remember those teams? At a time when they should have gone young and try to build from within, they went out and spent on veteran hitters like Jose Canseco, Fred McGriff and Gregg Vaughn in order to excite their fanbase.

Much like the Nationals are doing now, the Devil Rays ignored improving their starting rotation and consistently finished in last place.  That’s where the Nationals are headed again in 2011.

I think LaRoche is a remarkably consistent player. He is almost a look for a .270 average and 25 HR every year. However, his cumulative WAR over the last three seasons is 6.4, which ranks him towards the bottom of Major League first basemen over that time period.

My point is that LaRoche is not going to help the Nationals win. LaRoche is the type of player where he is a good player on a bad team, but would be just a fringe player on a playoff caliber team. He is the offensive version of Brian Fuentes.

He might help the Nationals be somewhat “competitive,” but there is a difference between being competitive and winning. By the time the Nationals are a winning franchise (three to four years at a minimum), LaRoche will be gone and Werth will be a shell of his former self.

Plus, if they really want to be competitive—at least on the offensive side of the diamond—why not keep Willingham and go all in? Taking two steps forward and one step back on offense makes no sense to me.

Giving your fanbase false hope by signing veterans, so they think you are trying to win is not the way to go. The Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals have tried that approach and look where it got them.

If the Nationals plan on winning sooner rather than later, they need to figure out a way to develop some pitching. If they don’t, they will be back in the same position they are now in five years.

That being a last place team.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

BaseballAmerica.com recently released its top 10 prospect list for the Washington Nationals, and coming in at No. 3, is second baseman Danny Espinosa.

Aaron Fitt of Baseball America recently told masn.com’s Byron Kerr that, “Long Beach State is a shortstop factory with Troy Tulowitzki, Bobby Crosby and Evan Longoria played shortstop for a year when he was there. Espinosa is the next guy in that progression.”

Fitt added that Espinosa has “surprising pop,” he is able to  “get on base and make things happen” and is “going to have a lot of doubles. He will give you 10, 15, maybe 20 home runs a year.”

Fitt said defensively, Espinosa is a good player, with a strong arm and good range.

Most believe Espinosa will be a long-term member of the Nationals, whether at second or perhaps shortstop if Ian Desmond is traded.

Nowhere on Baseball America’s top 10 list though is another second baseman who has been every bit as impressive in his three years with the Nationals’ organization:  Stephen Lombardozzi.

The Nationals have made great strides towards respectability over the past couple offseasons.  However, if they hope to transform themselves from moribund loser to divisional contender, they need to improve their up-the-middle defense while finding a true leadoff hitter; a quality contact speedster with a high on-base percentage.

Nyjer Morgan, the team’s leadoff hitter, has a career on-base percentage of just .344 and strikes out 17 percent of the time (an average of 101 times per season).  He’s acceptable for now, but the Nationals need someone better when they make that final leap towards not sucking.

Espinosa certainly isn’t a leadoff hitter and his defense, while an improvement over Cristian Guzman and Adam Kennedy, isn’t Gold Glove quality.

In three minor league seasons, Espinosa had a .964 fielding percentage with a 4.42 range factor. His scouting report calls his defense “unpolished” and not good enough to play shortstop at the major league level.

Hence the move to second base.

Lombardozzi, along with Espinosa, was picked in the 2008 amateur draft—albeit in the 19th round—and has a minor league career fielding average of .983 while committing 20 fewer errors than Espinosa in 200 more chances.

His defense is described as “polished” and “steady.” His range is much better than Espinosa, and he looks like a young man whose father (Steve Lombardozzi) played in the major leagues.

If in fact the Nationals let Adam Dunn leave because the team was trying to upgrade their defense, then it would make more sense if Lombardozzi—and not Espinosa—was the team’s long-term answer at second base.

Ryan Zimmerman at third and Adam LaRoche at first are as good as they come defensively. Ian Desmond—if he can continue to reduce his throwing errors—can become a dominant defensive shortstop. The addition of Stephen Lombardozzi would only make them better.

Espinosa and Lombardozzi are two very different types of offensive players. Here are Espinosa’s career numbers based on a full 162-game season:

Minor Leagues (three seasons):

.270/.345/.455, 28 doubles, 5 triples, 22 homeruns, 80 RBI, 31 steals, 73 walks, 145 strikeouts

2009 Arizona Fall League:

.345/.434/.460, 35 doubles, 5 triples, 5 home runs, 98 RBI, 21 steals, 105 walks, 162 strikeouts

2010 Dominican Winter League:

.281/.343/.483, 36 doubles, 10 triples, 12 home runs, 88 RBI, 54 steals, 30 walks, 140 strikeouts

2010 Major Leagues

.214/.277/.447, 23 doubles, 6 triples, 35 home runs, 87 RBI, 52 walks, 174 strikeouts

Espinosa has a history of a relatively low batting average and on-base percentage, a good deal of home runs for a middle infielder, few walks and a whole lot of strikeouts.

This is not the kind of guy you want at the top of the batting order though. On a good team, he would probably bat sixth or seventh. I think that when his career is over, he’ll have averaged .250/.320/.450 with 20 homers and 75 RBI.

There is certainly nothing wrong with that, except for the fact that the Nationals need a leadoff hitter.

Here are Lombardozzi’s minor league averages over his three seasons (again based on 162 games):

.293/.373/.402, 33 doubles, 9 triples, 5 home runs, 50 RBI, 22 stolen bases, 77 walks and 89 strikeouts.

In the Arizona Fall League this past season, he averaged .293/.385/.439.

Over his career, Danny Espinosa has struck out 29 percent of the time while walking in just 8 percent of his at-bats.  Lombardozzi, on the other hand, walks in 11 percent of his at-bats while striking out just 12 percent of the time.

Two or three years ago, it wouldn’t have mattered which player started for the Nationals. The team was so bad that it wouldn’t have made a difference if their second baseman was a contact hitter or a power bat.

Things are finally starting to come together though. The Nationals are close enough to respectability where a player here or a player there could be the needed difference.

Ian Desmond and Nyjer Morgan set the table for Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham last season, but combined for only a .312 on-base percentage; sluggers can’t drive in runners who aren’t on base.

Perhaps the lack of base runners at the top of the order cost the Nationals five or six games last year, but the difference between 64 and 69 wins is meaningless.

The difference, however, between 80 and 85 wins is being in contention for the Wild Card spot.

Over the past couple of months, the Nationals have made offers to free agent pitchers Jorge de la Rosa and Carl Pavano and had a trade in place for Zack Greinke before the former Royal invoked his no-trade clause.

If the Nationals are really interested in adding another starter, Matt Garza has been available for quite some time. The Rays need a middle infielder and a relief pitcher.  It would make perfect sense for Washington to trade Espinosa and either Drew Storen or Tyler Clippard (and perhaps a minor league prospect) to Tampa for Garza.

The recently signed Henry Rodriguez could replace Storen or Clippard, and Lombardozzi could take over at second. If he needs a little more seasoning, the Nationals could sign a veteran infielder, such as David Eckstein, to fill in until he is ready.

The time for fill-in players have come and gone for the Washington Nationals. It’s time to put those in place who can help the team win.

Stephen Lombardozzi is one of those players.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com