Kuzul

It is becoming painfully obvious that the Washington Nationals are doing everything they can to sign a competent major league first baseman this off season and the two players remaining—Adam LaRoche and Derrek Lee—are doing everything they can to avoid signing here.

I mean, the math isn’t that difficult. The Orioles and Nationals need a first baseman and the only two left are Lee and LaRoche.

And yet the clock continues to tick. Most everyone was in agreement that the two would sign this week but as of yet all remains quiet. So what’s taking so long?

It can’t be about money. Derrek Lee wants $8-10 million, an amount both teams seem willing to pay. And it isn’t about contract length. Lee only wants a one-year deal and Adam LaRoche has already been offered a multi-year contract from the Orioles.

It’s as though both players keep waiting by the phone, hoping that some other team will sweep in the save them from the dire possibility of playing in Washington or Baltimore. But there just isn’t anyone else.

So it looks as though whichever first baseman the Nationals end up with is a player who doesn’t particularly want to be here. So if they don’t want to play in Washington, does Washington really want to watch them play?

General Manager Mike Rizzo all but promised upgrades around the diamond this off season, but other than the punch-in-the-stomach signing of Jayson Werth a month ago, nothing much has happened. Like a line of tumbling dominoes, one player after another either said no to a trade or their employers wouldn’t deal with the Nationals.

So 2011, it would appear, isn’t going to be that turnaround season we had all hoped for. Unless a handful of minor league “inventory” suddenly turns hot, the upcoming season is going to be a bridge to becoming a winning team, not a ladder.

But if a veteran first baseman won’t get the Nationals to the promised land (a .500 season), why not give the local talent one more try before bringing in the hired guns next year? Would it not make more sense to see what guys like Michael Morse can do before relegating them to part-time status?

Two good things are going to happen in 2012. First, many quality free agents will be available next fall. Prince Fielder, Grady Sizemore and Edwin Jackson are just some of the names that could help fill holes on the team’s major league roster.

And second, 2012 will be the first season that the fruit of “The Plan” will begin to make a significant difference for the Nationals.

Here, take a look at which prospects should be available next season:

Chris Marrero

The 21-year-old just completed his fifth professional season and batted .294/.350/.450 for Double-A Harrisburg with 18 home runs and 82 RBI. For his career, the former Florida high schooler has averaged .281-21-91 over a 550 at-bat minor league season.

There is little doubt he won’t succeed against major league pitching. The problem has always been his fielding. Over the last two seasons, Marrero has committed a combined 38 errors.

Marrero was a Jim Bowden pick made during a time when the Nationals didn’t place any great emphasis on athleticism or defense. As a result, his best value will be as a trade-chip to an American League team. There is little doubt that he could excel as a designated hitter.

Stephen Lombardozzi

Lombardozzi is the guy who will make us all forget about Danny Espinosa when he too gets traded in the coming weeks or months. Over his three minor league seasons, Lombardozzi—also 21—has averaged .293/.373/.402 with 29 doubles, 9 triples and 21 stolen bases.

He is a defensive whiz, averaging just eight errors per season. He has a Gold Glove in him just waiting to break out.

Unlike Espinosa, who has more power but a tough time getting on base, Lombardozzi is an ideal lead off hitter who walks often and steals bases. He is the model of consistency and will be ready for the major leagues sometime late next summer.

Derek Norris

The 21-year-old Norris, who has averaged .261/.414/.462 with 25 homers and 93 RBI over 550 at-bats during his career, will begin his first season in Double-A in 2011 and should be ready for the major leagues by early 2012. Though his defense needs work, coaches and scouts are seeing improvement every season.

My guess is that his bat is so good that the Nationals will ultimately move him to another position to reduce wear-and-tear on his body. And don’t forget, the team already has Wilson Ramos (.278-1-5 in 79 major league at-bats) and Jesus Flores (.260-16-99 over 162 games) ready to share catching duties in 2012 or be used in a trade for pitching.

Bryce Harper

A lot of coaches and scouts think that Harper showed enough in the Arizona Fall League to start for the Nationals in 2012. The 18-year-old batted .343/.410/.629 with a homer and seven RBI in 35 at-bats. A strong season in the minors in 2011 and there is no reason not to believe he’ll be ready.

As a 19-year-old playing in his first year, Ken Griffey Jr. batted .264-16-61 with a .329 on-base percentage. After 200 at-bats over his first two seasons (.224-5-21), Alex Rodriguez hit .358-36-123 as a 20-year-old. I think Harper will be able to hit .275-15-60 in 2012.

Tom Milone

A John Lannan clone but with better control, the 23-year-old lefty has averaged 12-5, 2.88, 9.0/1.6/7.6 over the past two seasons at Class-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg. He has “advanced feel” for pitching and is able to hit his spots by changing speeds. For his career, Milone has a 7:1 strikeout to walk ration.

Milone has an average fastball and a plus-change. He added a cutter early in 2009 and since then his stats have gotten better at each level pitched.

At worst, he is another John Lannan, and the Nationals could use another guy like him in the rotation.

Cole Kimball

He was a mediocre starting pitcher for three seasons but became a quality reliever in 2009. Last season, he came out of nowhere to become part of the team’s future. Last season, Kimball pitched for Class-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg and went 8-1, 2.17, 5.7/4.5/11.6 and a 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Playing in the Arizona Fall League, he was even better. In 11 games, he crafted a 0.75 ERA with 15 strikeouts and just two walks. Opponents batted just .186 against him.

Though he will spend some time with the Nationals in 2011, he will likely become a mainstay the following season. He has a 96-98 mph fastball and a big frame (6’3”, 240) so he should be able to maintain his power pitch throughout his career.

Sammy Solis

Solis, the Nationals’ second-round pick in last season’s amateur draft, allowed two hits and no walks while striking out three in four innings with Class-A Hagerstown last season. In the Arizona Fall League, Solis went 1-0 with a 3.80 ERA, striking out 12 in 23 innings.

At 6’5,” the lanky lefty has a deceptive motion that causes batters problems. His 92 mph fastball has “plus” movement and his curve has late action—an above average but not great pitch. He is one of those prospects who doesn’t have a really high ceiling but at the same time shouldn’t take too long to reach the major leagues. Most believe that he will be ready by 2012.

Let’s make an educated guess about the 2012 roster and see what it might look like:

Starting Rotation:

1—Stephen Strasburg: A real number-one starter

2—Jordan Zimmermann: Should be a quality number-two for years to come

3—John Lannan: A good number-four but can handle the three spot if he becomes a little more consistent

4—Yunesky Maya or Ross Detwiler: I think Maya can become a solid starter, a guy who can win 12-14 games a season.

5—Tom Milone or Sammy Solis: John Sickels grades Solis a “B” prospect (“prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role”) and requires “minimal” minor league seasoning before making it to Washington.

Without adding a free agent starter, the Nationals have seven quality pitchers for five spots in the rotation. All but one will be under 30 at the start of the 2012 season. That is certainly an above average rotation and the addition of one free agent star could make it second best in the division.

The bullpen could be even better (ages are in parenthesis)

Tyler Clippard (25) 11-8, 3.07, 6.8/4.1/11.1

Drew Storen (22) 4-4, 3.58, 7.8/3.6/8.5

Sean Burnett (27) 1-7, 2.14, 7.4/2.9/8.9

Doug Slaten (30) 4-1, 3.10, 7.5/4.2/8.0

Colin Balester (24) 0-1, 2.57, 6.4/3.7/12.0

Cole Kimball (23) 8-1, 2.17, 5.7/4.5/11.6 (in minor leagues)

Henry Rodriguez (23) 2-0, 4.26, 8.2/4.3/10.5

Talk about a group of power arms! Every one of the players had a strikeout rate above eight per nine-innings.

And by 2012, the everyday positions should look something like this:

C—Wilson Ramos & Jesus Flores: They could combine for .275-15-60 with quality defense

1B—The team has yet to add this player to their roster. Marrero just doesn’t play good enough defense and Tyler Moore (.269-31-111 in Class-A) won’t be ready until 2013 at the earliest.

2B—Stephen Lombardozzi will overtake Daniel Espinosa because he makes contact.

SS—Ian Desmond will have cut down the throwing errors by 2012 and offensively could hit as much as .275-15-75 with stolen bases.

3B—Ryan Zimmmerman should be around for a long time.

LF—Michael Morse is capable of hitting .280-25-85 if given the chance to play every day. 2011 should be the season to give him that chance, to see if he’s an everyday player.

CF—Jayson Werth has played center field before and hopefully he can again, especially if Bryan Harper makes the club in 2012.

RF—Bryan Harper won’t be a slugger in 2012, but he will lay the foundations for the future. Playing solid defense and hitting .270-15-70 will be plenty for the 19-year-old.

It’s becoming obvious that Rizzo won’t be able to change the team overnight like had been hoped; there won’t be any Zach Greinke’s or James Loney’s to be had this off season. And that’s okay. If 2012 is the year of contention, then the Nationals have to find out now if Roger Bernadina, Mike Morse and Nyjer Morgan are starters or utility players.

Once all that gets sorted out, Rizzo can make all the big-time splashy moves he needs to get the Nationals ready for the 2012 season. And I think most of us can live with one more so-so season if it is obvious that respectability is right around the corner.

And I have to believe that it is.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Washington Nationals are running out of time to revamp their roster for the 2011 season and frankly, they are running out of impact players to sign.

After kicking off the baseball winter meetings by signing Jayson Werth to his historic contract, they have seen the impact of that signing mitigated by a string of failures.

They kicked the tires on Cliff Lee, but say they were never serious. They agreed to a trade that would have brought Zack Greinke to Washington, but the former Cy Young award winner invoked his no-trade clause and became a Milwaukee Brewer the following day.

The Nationals tried to trade for Dodgers first baseman James Loney but that deal fell apart when Los Angeles signed a free-agent catcher, punching a hole in Washington’s prospect offer.

They got a couple of promising kids from Oakland in the Josh Willingham trade and—for whatever it’s worth—signed Rick Ankiel to a one-year deal.

And the Nationals and Orioles and Derrek Lee and Adam LaRoche continue to play musical chairs around first base. Money versus length of contract keeps the players spinning. When one signs, the other will go down shortly thereafter.

Look for Derrek Lee to wear the team’s “Curly W” any day now.

And now Brandon Webb, who many believed would sign with the Nationals as sort of a yin to Chien-Ming Wang’s yang (two broken toys ready to again be played with), signed with the Rangers.

Rizzo was a man who believed he could make a splash in the baseball world this offseason; he had the money and knew which players were difference-makers. But for any number of reasons—most bad—the Nationals could be returning home with an empty quiver.

Right now, about the only player of any consequence that remains at the dance is Carl Pavano, currently with the Minnesota Twins. The 34-year-old came through for the Twins last season, going 17-11, with a 3.75 ERA. He wants a three-year deal that could top $30 million before it’s all said and done. 

If the Nationals want to make good on their promise to bring a top-of-the-rotation starter to Washington for 2011, Pavano is about their last chance to do it. Oh sure, there are a few players in the scratch-and-dent department who could—but probably won’t—fill that bill.

Will Pavano? Can Carl Pavano do enough to change the direction of the Washington Nationals, or is the person he would replace just as apt to help the Nationals toward respectability?

Pavano began his major league career in the Nationals organization in the days of “Les Expos.” He came to Montreal from Boston in the Pedro Martinez trade.

In his first five seasons, Pavano had a record of 27-37, 4.71, 10.0/3.0/6.0 and an average of just five wins per season.

He spent the next two years with Florida and did well, averaging 15-10, 3.61 and 8.8/2.1/5.8. But he parlayed those two good seasons into a four-year, $38 million deal with the Yankees, which turned out to be a big mistake by the boys from the Bronx.

Over the life of the contract, Pavano battled injuries and won just nine games with a 5.00 ERA. He missed the entire 2006 season due to injury. In 2008, he went 4-2, 5.77 with the Indians and by 2009 began to look like his old self, going 14-12, 5.10, 10.6/.1.8/.6.6.

However, he did lead the league in earned runs allowed.

Last season, he came back full force and was as good a pitcher as there was in the American League.

Over his 12-year career, he has averaged just 125 innings per season as a starting pitcher. He has allowed almost 10 hits per nine innings. He has excellent control, however, allowing just 2.3 walks per nine. But he doesn’t strike out many batters and doesn’t have that power arm that GM Mike Rizzo covets. He has struck out just 5.7 batters per nine innings in 12 seasons.

Pavano is expecting a multi-year contract and I don’t think it’s a good idea. Over his first three seasons he averaged 112 innings per year. In his second three-year stint, it was 127 innings. Then came 111 innings and finally, over the last two years, 152 innings.

There is nothing in those numbers that would suggest that Carl Pavano would be available over any length of a multi-year deal. And in those 12 career seasons, he has won more than 12 just three times.

Yes, the Nationals will cause a stir in the baseball world if they sign Carl Pavano, but it will be for the wrong reasons. Pavano doesn’t deserve a long-term contract and I hope the Nationals don’t give him one.

Here are Livan Herandez’ numbers from last season:

10-12, 3.66, 211 innings, 9.2/2.7/.4.8

And Carl Pavano’s stats from 2010:

17-11, 3.75, 221 innings, 9.2/1.5/4.8

Livan pitched the same number of innings, allowed the same number of hits per nine innings, struck out the same number and walked one more batter per game. His ERA was one-tenth of a run better.

And Livan got only the most cursory of major league contracts for 2011 while Pavano is looking for $30 million?

It won’t help the Nationals to sign Carl Pavano. They have enough starting pitching now that whoever they throw out there every fifth day has the potential to play as well and has far less chance to see his pitching arm fall off.

Let’s pass on Pavano and look for one more bat, letting the offense carry the team for one more year until Stephen Strasburg returns in 2012.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

First, here’s hoping that everyone had a joyous and Merry Christmas. I was raised an atheist during a time when teachers led a prayer and blessing over our lunch in the Fairfax County school system and today am a believer in a world where it is almost illegal to mention religion in school.

You’d think there would be some happy medium out there. Regardless, I hope all sides enjoyed their day yesterday.

Phil Wood of masn.com reported this morning that negotiations are “pretty close” between the Nationals and first baseman Derrek Lee on a one-year contract. The Orioles, however, are still in pursuit.

Wood also said that the Orioles are continuing their negotiations with Adam LaRoche, but didn’t say whether Washington also remained interested in the former Diamondback. My guess is the omission means that—at this point, at least—the Nationals are unwilling to give LaRoche anything more than a two-year contract.

Were LaRoche to sign with Washington, I could guarantee you that by the end of the season, he would have numbers very close to .260-25-90 with minimal deviation. He’s that consistent.

Lee, however, is another story. After averaging .300-.384-.534 with 33 home runs and 102 RBI over the last six seasons, he slumped to .260-19-80, .347 OBP last season with the Cubs and the Braves.

Either his injured thumb—he suffered a torn ligament early in September and had restorative surgery last month—or his advancing age turned his once potent bat soft. If it was the thumb, he is expected to be 100% this spring and the Nationals will have added another middle-of-the-order bat.

But if he’s just getting old—he will be 35 next season—then another .265-20-80 season is about all that can be expected.

It’s hard to say if a healthy Lee will return to his old self. My guess is—and it is just a guess—that he will surpass LaRoche offensively in 2011, while playing better defense. In the long term, however, LaRoche has more to offer a prospective team.

At least that is what general manager Mike Rizzo is hoping if he is able to sign him.

Wood also reported that the Nationals tried to trade for the Dodgers’ first baseman James Loney, but were thwarted when Los Angeles signed catcher Dioner Navarro. Apparently, a Nationals’ catcher was to be part of the package heading westward.

Loney, still just 26, is a four-year starter and has averaged .288-14-92 for the Dodgers. However, his numbers slipped last season and the Nationals don’t have enough offense at the other positions to be able to support Loney in the lineup. Sure, he is an RBI guy but he just doesn’t hit enough home runs to be an end-the-game-with-one-swing kind of player.

It looks like it’s going to be Derrek Lee, but it was just a week or two ago that reports had Adam LaRoche signing a multi-year deal with Orioles.

We’ll just have to wait a little longer, I guess.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Washington Nationals have worked hard to improve their ball club this winter.

They’ve signed catchers Jamie Burke and Josh Bard to add depth behind the plate. They’ve also added infielder Eric Bruntlett and outfielder Rick Ankiel as well as pitchers Brian Bruney and Miguel Batista.

They were in talks with Kansas City to obtain Zack Greinke, but the right hander blocked the move with his no trade clause.

The biggest move of all was the signing of former Philadelphia outfielder Jayson Werth to a seven year, $126 million contract. A big bat in the middle of the Phillies order, the Nationals hope Werth can become the main man in theirs.

With the loss of Adam Dunn to free agency, the Nationals need Werth to be worth every penny. But will he be?

Consider these points:

AGE

Werth is 31-years-old. The Nationals are betting that Werth will still be a top National League bat for seven more years. While many players perform well into their late 30’s or early 40’s, there is very little in Werth’s past to suggest this. In 2010, Werth led the National League with 46 doubles. This was the only time in his career that he’s led the league in anything.

At his age, hitters have reached their prime. Worth has never hit .300 and he’s never driven in 100 runs. This, while hitting in a Phillies lineup where he was the one being pitched to.

PROTECTION

Please don’t get the idea that I don’t think Werth is a special hitter. He certainly is. He was an All-Star in 2009 and twice has received votes for MVP. The problem in Washington is finding someone to protect him in the line up. Werth helped provide that protection for Ryan Howard with the Phillies. With no one to provide that help with the Nationals, pitchers will pitch around Werth.

INJURIES

While Werth has been healthy enough to play over 150 the last two seasons, Werth has had only one other season where he’s played more than 102 games.

Jayson Werth could end up being worth every penny he’s getting in Washington. Hopefully, Bryce Harper will be in the big leagues soon enough to team with Werth in that offense. The team has, however, taken a gamble. Let’s hope they haven’t rolled snake eyes.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Some would say that Wilson Ramos, who the Nationals acquired in 2010 from the Minnesota Twins as part of the Matt Capps trade, is simply holding the catcher’s spot warm until Derek Norris is ready to take the reins.  Maybe that’s true, maybe it’s not, but you had better believe that Ramos is going to do everything possible in 2010 to prove that he is a viable everyday catcher in the major leagues.

After being blocked by Joe Mauer in Minnesota, Ramos should enter 2011 sharing time with Ivan Rodriguez behind the plate.  However, with Rodriguez now 39-years-old, you had better believe that Ramos, sooner or later, will be given the opportunity to claim the job as all his own.

He got a look in both Minnesota and Washington in 2010, posting the following line:

• 79 At Bats
• .278 Batting Average (22 Hits)
• One Home Run
• Five RBI
• Five Runs
• No Stolen Bases
• .305 On Base Percentage
• .405 Slugging Percentage
• .318 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Obviously, it is too small of a sample size to draw any significant conclusions from.  In 1,479 minor league at-bats, he posted a .285 average with 39 HR, 219 RBI and 182 R.  That is a much bigger sampling than we can use.

His career-high in home runs came in 2008 at High-A ball, when he had 13 HR in 452 AB (about a home run once every 35 AB).  For his minor league career, his home run rate is about once every 38 at bats.  Clearly, his power isn’t going to make him overly attractive to fantasy owners.

However, that wouldn’t be completely accurate.  Baseball America, who ranked him as the Nationals fifth-best prospect heading into 2011 (Norris was second), said this:

“Ramos has good loft and leverage in his swing, giving him a chance to hit for solid-average or slightly better power in time. He does get pull-happy, and he must improve his contact rate and patience at the plate. Conditioning has been an issue for Ramos in the past, and he’s a well below-average runner.”

That should give us hope that maybe he could develop into a 15-20 HR hitter, but he’s clearly not quite there yet.

He’s a catcher so you shouldn’t expect much speed, which goes without saying.  Still, only five runs in 79 AB in the major leagues?  He’s actually never even scored more than 50 in a minor league season.  That’s not very inspiring, nor is the fact that he’s not going to hit anywhere in the lineup that brings significant run scoring ability.  Given the time share, under 40 runs scored may be a given.

Yes, he has a decent contact bat, though he still posted a 17.71 percent strikeout rate over his minor league career.  He also didn’t draw many walks, with a 5.68 percent walk rate.  Are these really numbers that are going to get fantasy owners excited?

Yes, he has potential and, at 23-years-old, he has plenty of time to realize it.  Still, fantasy owners simply looking towards 2011 would like to have seen a little bit more in order to depend on him.  Even in two-catcher formats, he’s a huge gamble.  He just hasn’t shown enough and he is going to be sharing time with Rodriguez.

If you want to grab him as a depth option, that’s fine.  Unfortunately, at this point, that’s about all he’s worth.

What are your thoughts on Ramos?  Is there any chance in him developing into a more attractive option in 2011?  Do you have any interest in?

Make sure to check out our other Prospect Reports as we wrap up 2010 and head towards 2011:

• Archer, Chris
• Britton, Zach
• Iglesias, Jose
• Kipnis, Jason
• Lawrie, Brett
• Mesoraco, Devin
• Pineda, Michael
• Revere, Ben
• Taylor, Michael

THIS ARTICLE IS ALSO FEATURED ON WWW.ROTOPROFESSOR.COM.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Carl Pavano has had his ups and downs his entire career as we all know.

He had his breakout season in 2003, collecting 12 wins with an acceptable ERA of 4.30. The very next year in 2004, he won 18 games with an ERA of 3.00.

His All-Star season earned him a 4-year, $40 million deal with the New York Yankees.

But we all know how that turned out, as he started only 26 games during the four years.

But after regaining his form with the Cleveland Indians and the Minnesota Twins in 2009, he returned to Minnesota this past season and won 17 games—earning him Twins’ Pitcher of the Year honors.

Now this offseason, he is looking for a new home.

Along with the Twins, he has drawn interests from teams including the Washington Nationals. Pavano is the best starting pitcher out there in the free-agent market, so he can earn some serious cash.

Although he had drawn interest from the Milwaukee Brewers just days ago, that possibility disappeared when they acquired ace Zack Greinke from the Kansas City Royals.

With Minnesota and Washington as the two main possible destinations left, the question remains—which team best suits Pavano’s services?

Washington is a not a bad place to go right now, as they have promising young talent along with veterans such as Rick Ankiel and Chein-Ming Wang. The Nats are a team that’s not a 100-loss team anymore, and might make a playoff run in five to ten years. The bad part is that Pavano is 35-years-old, so he probably wouldn’t stay.

Another reason why Pavano should not go to the Nationals is that they would have to overpay him (like they did with Jayson Werth), as Washington isn’t the most attractive place for the best pitcher left on the free-agent market.

If Washington does sign the right-hander, it looks like they might be onto something— perhaps a wild-card run in two years?

Minnesota better suits Pavano however, as they have something the Nats don’t. The Clubhouse.

Pavano has had no problems with the coaching staff, or with his teammates. Because he did pitch well, and rejoined the team before the 2010 season by accepting arbitration, it does hint Pavano like Minnesota.

This relates to Cliff Lee, who returned to Philadelphia largely due to the fact he loved it there.

And with Pavano being as good as he is right now with the Twins, why not return? The Twins are a playoff team, and no one wants to risk their career at a later age by underperforming for another team they have never pitched for.

The Minnesota Twins are the better option for Carl Pavano.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The Jayson Werth signing has been bothering me since it was announced.

I understand the Nationals are looking forward, and with the loss of Stephen Strasburg for 2011, they feel they need a big name to energize the fan base. They realize a great ballpark alone will not draw forever. When Nationals Park opened in 2008, the attendance was 29,000 per game. Since then, it has dropped to about 22,500 per game.

The Nationals’ front office and ownership realize that realistically, Bryce Harper has to be at least a couple of years and probably more away from contributing at the big league level. And although Stephen Strasburg seems to progressing with his rehab on schedule, the organization has to be holding its collective breath awaiting his anticipated return in 2012.

But committing a seven year, $126 million deal to a player who has played over 135 games only twice in his career? Really? And Werth is soon to be 32, folks. Not 22, but 32. Think about that. Werth has only had more than 420 at bats in a season twice in his career.

Werth was a very productive player the past two years in a loaded Phillies lineup. He spent the greater part of 2010 hitting fifth behind Ryan Howard. Everybody agrees Ryan Zimmerman is a very good player on the upside of his career, but Zimmerman and Werth cannot do it alone for the Nationals. Having Nyjer Morgan and Ian Desmond in the lineup is just not as intimidating to opposing pitchers as seeing a lineup with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.

There should definitely be more opportunities to pitch around Werth and make him prove he can be patient in a less potent lineup. His average of 153 strikeouts the last two seasons is definitely reason for concern.

He will definitely have much more pressure to provide protection for teammates rather then receiving protection from guys like Howard and Ibanez. In short, he, along with Zimmerman, will be “the guys”. It will not be like it was on the Phillies where he was one good hitter among many. Guys like Utley, Howard, Rollins and Ibanez will no longer be there to pick up the slack.

With 75 extra base hits in 2010, Werth certainly played at the level of an $18 million player. But looking three or four years down the road, it’s hard to imagine a 36 year old Jayson Werth producing anywhere near the $18 million level.

Time will tell, as it always does. If Werth produces to his contract, Harper lives up to the hype, Strasburg recovers to his early 2010 form and Zimmerman signs an extension, the Nationals could be a force to be reckoned with in three or four years.

If the Nationals are not a team to be reckoned four years from now, Jayson Werth is sure to receive a great deal of the blame from fans.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Zack Greinke got his “Welcome to Milwaukee” press conference yesterday and he seemed genuinely happy to be there. He had made it very clear over the past year or so that he wanted to play for a winner and now he has his wish.

I don’t have a problem with Greinke wanting to play for a winner and eventually forcing his trade; over the years, many star players were stuck on bad teams and several ultimately demanded a trade to get the chance to win.

I get it.

But none of those players gave up on his team because they were losers. None of them saw their numbers decline because they couldn’t give their all for a losing team.

Greinke’s Cy Young season in 2009 was special. He went 16-8 with a sparkling 2.16 ERA, striking out almost 10 batters per game while walking just two. And over the first two months of last season, he continued pitching at that same level.

But by June, he was starting to give up chunks of runs and he seemed less focused. His September ERA was 5.92 and he began to look like he didn’t care.

A year earlier, he told the Kansas City press, “I don’t want to play anywhere else,” but by the end of last season he switched agents so that his trade could come quicker. There were grumblings all summer that he had just given up.

If this is true—and I have no verifiable proof to that end—why would Brewers’ players want him on their team? And certainly, Nationals fans would have had mixed feelings about the acquisition of Greinke because of their experience with a player who not too long ago dogged it for two seasons in Washington.

I was stunned when the Nationals obtained Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez in a multi-player trade four years ago. They gave up just two relievers and a couple of utility players.

Kearns was a rising star who had averaged .265-25-95 over a 162-game season to that point in his career. His difficulties since, though, had nothing to do with desire.

Lopez, however, is another story.

He made it clear that he wasn’t happy with the trade that brought him to Washington, but he was a professional and I believed the attitude wouldn’t affect his performance.

Over his first five major league seasons, Lopez averaged .260-18-72 over 162 games and batted .291-23-85 the year before the trade. He was on his way to a similar season when he was shipped to Washington in early summer.

In 2007, his only complete season with the Nationals, Lopez batted .245/.308/.352 with nine homers and 50 RBI. At the time of his release the following year (at the trade deadline), Lopez was batting .234/.305/.314.

That’s pretty bad.

The Cardinals signed him shortly after his release, and in 156 at-bats he hit .385/.426/.538 with four homers and 21 RBI. That’s twice as many homers and runs batted in with the Cardinals in half the at-bats.

That’s pretty good.

Since then, Lopez has batted .280/.351/.392 for the Diamondbacks, Cardinals, Brewers and Red Sox, averaging 10 home runs and 60 RBI.

So in the five seasons before playing for the Nationals, he was a solid offensive shortstop. And in the two-plus years after leaving the Nationals, Lopez was a solid offensive shortstop.

But in parts of three seasons with the Nationals, he sucked big-time.

The only difference was that he didn’t want to play in Washington. And because of that, he didn’t give his teammates 100 percent.

Oh, I don’t think he realized that is what he was doing. I’m sure that in his mind, he was playing as hard as ever.

But he wasn’t.

The same thing applies to Zack Grienke: He was Cy Young himself when he felt content, but the moment he was someplace he didn’t want to be, he became the most mortal of pitchers. Beginning in June last season, his ERA was 4.92. He gave up four or more runs in 11 of his last 21 starts.

For four months, he was just another pitcher.

If the Brewers play well next season, Greinke stands a good chance of winning another Cy Young award. Over the last five seasons, he has a 3.32 ERA, which translates to about 2.82 in the National League.

He’ll be dominant.

But what if the Brewers aren’t in a pennant race? How long will it take before he loses focus and his numbers again become mediocre? Will he ask—once again—to be traded to a contender?

Zack Greinke, Felipe Lopez or any one player just isn’t worth it.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The 2011 season can break one of two ways for the Washington Nationals. They can either take that final step towards a .500 season and use it as a conduit to future playoff contention or they can simply suck for a sixth consecutive year.

And which possibility becomes reality is dependent on who trots out to first base next Opening Day.

The Nationals have shored up enough of their offense—and will in the next month bring in enough starting pitching—that a defensive minded, 25 homer, 85 RBI type of first baseman should make the team at least good enough to take a run at respectability. Anything less and fans will still be talking in terms of “next season.”

Right now, three teams and two players are playing musical chairs with Russian roulette-type implications. The San Diego Padres, Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals are all without a first baseman and are chasing two pretty good ones: Adam LaRoche and Derrek Lee.

So, what’s taking so long?

Most teams have their rosters and payrolls pretty much set by the time they return from Christmas vacation. That means that players only have a few days to finalize their contracts and find homes in their new cities.

Now, the reality is that while the Padres want a new first baseman, they probably can’t afford one. If money weren’t a problem they would never have shipped Adrian Gonzalez off to Boston. The reality then is that two teams need a first baseman and two good ones remain in the MLB cupboard (with a few more available in the scratch-n-dent bin).

The 34-year-old Lee is the short-term solution for both clubs. After averaging .292-32-85 since 2000, a little bit of age and an injured thumb slowed him down last year. He batted .260-19-80 playing for the Braves and the Chicago Cubs. He is a former Gold Glove winner.

Lee is a short-term solution because he is content with a one-year contract for “Carlos Pena money,” somewhere in the $8-10 million range. His hope is that he will be able to rebrand himself following a solid 2011 season and then sign a two or three-year deal next fall.

Over the past week or two, both Mid-Atlantic teams showed the most interest in the 30-year-old LaRoche. He has averaged .271-25-87 in his six full major league seasons and brings a glove that is almost Gold Glove quality. It makes a great deal of sense, then, to reward LaRoche with a two-year deal, perhaps with the team owning a third-year option.

Again, it’s been a couple of weeks since negotiations began between the two first basemen and the two teams. From all reports, the Orioles have in fact offered LaRoche a multi-year deal, probably for two years. The sticking point is that third year.

It has been reported that the Orioles were unwilling to include that extra year and they are now in negotiations with Derrek Lee. But those are the same reports coming out of the Nationals camp, that after initial discussions with LaRoche, the team has focused on Lee as their first baseman in 2011.

So what gives?

It would seem that LaRoche is seeking some stability after playing for four teams in five years. He wants to be able to unpack his bags and actually choose the color for his bedroom walls for once. And I don’t begrudge him that desire.

And really, I don’t see why the Nationals would have a problem with a three-year contract. He is the model of consistency. Beginning in 2006, LaRoche has batted .285, .272, .270, .277 and .261 last season.

And over the past four seasons, he has hit 21, 25, 25 and 25 home runs and drove in 90, 88, 85, 83 and 100 runs. It’s great. Just wind him up in March and watch him go.

Lee, on the other hand, had a difficult year in 2009, which could have been the result of either a damaged thumb or advancing age. If it was his thumb, then Lee should be able to hit .280-30-95; maybe better. If it’s the age, then .265-20-75 seems about right.

The problem, of course, is that no one will know until long after the contract has been signed.

The Nationals have two first basemen currently in their minor league system who could one day become major league players. Chris Marrero is 21 and just finished his first full season against Double-A pitchers, batting .294/.350/.450 with 18 home runs and 82 RBI. Over his five-year minor league career, he’s averaged .281-19-88 with a .347 on-base percentage over a full season.

But he went to the Adam Dunn school of defense and general manager Mike Rizzo has made it clear that defense and athleticism are priority talents for future National players. Thus, he has no real future in Washington. He’ll likely end up part of a trade package for a veteran player.

Tyler Moore is two years older than Marrero and played in 2010 with Potomac, a level below Marrero’s Harrisburg Senators. However, Moore was drafted out of college, so his age really isn’t an issue. Moore batted .269-31-111 for the P-Nats while garnering a solid .552 slugging mark. Moore, however, is not a great defender.

So it’s not as though a multi-year contract to LaRoche (or Lee) will block some can’t-miss prospect in the minors. Marrero is a near-certain trade chip and Moore is at least two years away from the major leagues.

My guess is that we’ll wake one morning very soon and read that the Nationals signed one of these first baseman. I wouldn’t be upset if it’s Lee but hope that it ends up being LaRoche for two years with a third-year option at $8 million per season.

If the Nationals get one of those two guys—and add that elusive starting pitcher—the winter additions plus the overall maturation of the team will make a .500 run a real possibility. If, however, the team is forced to sift through the scrap heap to find their new first baseman, a 72 to 76-win season is about all we can hope for.

So Adam, hurry up, will you? Let’s get this taken care. The Nationals need you.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Initially, when hearing a productive and established player such as Jayson Werth signed with the Washington Nationals, it was bewildering.

The Nationals had stunk for years now with the only shining start, pitching phenom Stephen Strasburg already out for the entire 2011 season, as he needed Tommy John surgery. Not good news for any pitcher, especially a 21-year-old as the blame is on the organization. The Nationals’ meager fanbase turned up in droves for Strasburg, only to have him taken away—an all-too-common theme since settling in Washington five years ago.

Regardless, the Nats’ 2010 record speaks for itself, as it was the NL East’s worst finish with 69 wins and 93 losses. At home, they were above .500 closing out 41-40; but on the road, 28-53 is nauseating and not numbers that draw big stars.

Then consider facing the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, the unpredictable New York Mets and the up-and-coming Florida Marlins 18 games a season doesn’t help the Nationals’ cause either.

With crappy stats the only resolve is to go after a semi-star, like Werth, then pay up with a big contract. Werth is a star but he not the same level as Carl Crawford or Cliff Lee, making the dollars number so outrageous that the player will at least meet with you. The Nationals came with a plan, first by promising Werth that his money would not cap out the club, as the Nats pockets ran deeper to find him some more help.

That is still just talk about things that had not happened yet, and it is the Nationals making it easier said then done. What must have caught Werth’s attention was the Nationals farm system because this club is stacked for the next few seasons.

I guess sucking for so long does have its positives—just look at the Tampa Bay Rays, who made a 180 from bad right into the World Series in what seemed like nano-years.

Unlike down in Tampa Bay, the Nationals claim to have money to spend. So, presumably holes can be filled and if not by the green, then the Nats can head on down to the farm.

Remember that quality not quantity does apply here, meaning talent doesn’t come in numbers so it is taking a chance. Any club who wants to win now has to think like the Yankees or Red Sox. The one or two times trading works out has usually been the difference maker for a successful season.

So, who are these youngsters? Other than Strasburg, I watched the other three in the Arizona Fall League and each caught my eye.

Stephen Strasburg, SP 

The most hyped rookie in MLB history. Strasburg is an outstandingly talented pitcher that every baseball fan salivated over during his brief stint in 2010. This is a special kid, as he won games, is only 22-years old, sold 78,00 jerseys in June and literally filled an empty Nationals ballpark. In his first 68 innings pitched in the bigs, Strasburg finished with a 2.91 ERA and 92 strikeouts.

Bryce Harper, OF 

The 2010 No. 1 draft pick will be just 19 on his next birthday. Harper bats with plus-power, attacks pitches and can hit to the opposite field. He already possesses the ability to make changes at the plate and has an above-average throwing arm in the outfield. This kid will make his debut in 2011 and you can bet Harper will be a superstar.

Derek Norris, C

Norris is 21-years old, hits with power, has long at-bats and draws ample walks. Norris has a strong arm, but mechanics and technique need some improvement but experience can fix any slight flaws. Keeps getting better. 

Eury Perez, CF

Perez is the pest opposing teams dread because this kid can steal bases like you read about. Finishing with 64 steals, ranking second in the minors. Perez doesn’t hit home runs, but can get on base so fast, turning a single into a triple. Nice addition to break up any team’s batting order.

More young talent to look for in Washington…Pitchers: A.J. Cole, Sammy Solis, Robbie Ray and don’t forget 2009 rookie tandem of SS Ian Desmond and 2B Danny Espinosa, who showed serious potential in the infield.

This leaves the question, would it be a smart move to add some more experience for balance, at least mentally in the Nationals’ clubhouse? Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman will at least help, but he didn’t do much in 2010 motivation-wise.

It might sound crazy, but the Nats can learn from the Rays’ mistakes. Tampa possessed an exceptionally rare group of talent troubled by immaturity, particularly after losing the 2008 World Series and playing like sore losers in 2009. Veteran players can handle the pressure and leadership is essential in any sport.

Maybe Jayson Werth just got richer, but he could just be the smartest free agent this offseason.

Practice makes perfect, but it takes patience and looking forward the Nats could be the team to beat in the NL in 2012 season.

It looks like things are about to change in the Nation’s capital. Young, talented and hungry are a dangerous combination.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com