Kuzul

The Chicago Cubs are out of the Brandon Webb sweepstakes, leaving the Washington Nationals and Texas Rangers as the two main (and likely only) suitors remaining for the 30-year-old pitcher.

All indications are that Webb, who missed all of last season and all but one game the year before, is ready to resume normal baseball activities this spring. His doctor said he is 95 percent healthy and will be 100 percent by the time the season begins.

Two teams really want to sign him. The Texas Rangers went to the World Series last fall and are desperately trying to replace ace Cliff Lee, who spurned them for the Philadelphia Phillies. Even without Lee, the Rangers seem able to repeat their American League championship and Webb could instantly be part of a winning organization.

On the other hand, Webb, if healthy, could be the final piece that transforms a moribund losing franchise into a winner, and that might mean something to the former Cy Young Award winner. The Nationals certainly have the money to pay Webb, as their 2011 obligations are still less than last season’s 69-win team.

If Webb likes playing in front of friends and family, his hometown of Ashland, Kentucky is just a seven-hour drive from Nationals Park.

Add the fact that both Nationals General Manager Mike Rizzo and Webb are Diamondback alumni, and you have two very clear options for Webb.

If Webb wants to win now, he signs with the Rangers. But if being part of the rejuvenation of a franchise is important, if being near familiar surroundings and working for people you know means anything, then Washington has to be his destination.

Webb’s agent has been very clear that he is expecting the type of money that former ace Ben Sheets got from the Oakland Athletics last season. The oft-injured Sheets, who averaged 11 wins and a 3.72 ERA over nine seasons with Milwaukee, signed a $10 million contract last year after missing all of the 2009 season due to injury.

The Athletics got hosed big time. Sheets went 4-9 with a 4.53 ERA in 20 starts.

So if the Nationals really want Brandon Webb, it’s going to cost them $8-10 million, and there is no guarantee that he’ll do anything more this season than Chien-Ming Wang did for the Nationals last year.

To be clear, when healthy, Brandon Webb is in a different class than Wang or Sheets. Over seven seasons, Webb averaged 15-11, 3.27, 8.2/3.0/7.3 for the Arizona Diamondbacks. He has a near-perfect sinker and a plus fastball. He’s an innings-eater and gives up very few gap extra-base hits or home runs.

In 2007, Webb tossed three consecutive shutouts and amassed 42 consecutive scoreless innings, one of the all-time best streaks in major league history.

My guess is that Webb isn’t going to get anywhere near Ben Sheets money from last year. I wouldn’t be surprised, though, if he gets $5 million or so in base salary and another $4-6 million in incentive money. At that price, the Nationals (or Rangers) can afford to take a chance that he will return to form.

There is a 50-50 chance that Chien-Ming Wang returns to pitch effectively in the major leagues this year. There is also a 50-50 chance that Brandon Webb will again dominate major leagues hitters this summer.

But there is a near 100 percent chance that one of them makes it all the way back. And if the Nationals end up with both of them, some variation or combination of the two will greatly strengthen the team.

Former starter Matt Chico was designated for assignment earlier today. Let’s see if that move was the ying for Brandon Webb’s yang.

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Chien-Mang Wang is a National again this year.  To many it may be surprising that he even was a National last year considering he never pitched an inning.  Wang must have made strides rehabbing last year though because he was offered and accepted a $1 million contract (with $5 million in incentives) from the Nationals.  

This deal is a very savvy move by Nationals GM Mike Rizzo because the Nationals have added a pitcher that has good upside for a very low price.  If Wang can reach the pitchers mound he will easily be worth his contract.

When healthy, Wang won 19 games in back-to-back seasons and had an ERA under four. Wang gained this success with control, not speed.  Wang never was a hard thrower and only topped 100 strikeouts in a season once. If he can pitch to hitters and keep his walks very far and in between he could be a consistent starter, something the Nationals desperately need.  

While this acquisition while bolster a pitching rotation that features Livan Hernandez, Jason Marquis, Jordan Zimmerman and a whole mess of others the Nationals will still end up at the bottom of the barrel in the NL East.  Livan Hernandez had a tremendous season last year posting an ERA of 3.66, his last three seasons averaging out to be above a five ERA.

I wouldn’t find it very surprising at all if his ERA went back to his career average of 4.39. Marquis was a 2010 offseason acquisition who couldn’t get an out and is battling for a spot in the rotation.  

Jordan Zimmerman is a young pitcher still struggling in the big leagues who will be competing with Josh Lannan and a host of others.  What the Nationals do have is a young and talented bullpen which had to pitch the most innings of any major league club (545.2), but finished at No. 5 in ERA at 3.35.  However, the Nationals still lack an ace, a solid rotation, and an imposing offensive unit.  

The Nationals offense now finds itself weaker then a season ago with the departure of Adam Dunn and the trade of Josh Willingham to the Athletics for prospects Corey Brown (OF) and Henry Rodriguez (RP).  Jayson Werth was brought in to fill in for Adam Dunn who provided the Nationals with 38 home runs and over 100 RBIs for back-to-back seasons.  

While Werth has had an amazing career in Philadelphia, he played in a hitter’s ballpark with a lineup that included Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, etc.  In the last three years, Werth has hit 13 more home runs and slugging .04 higher at Citizens Bank Park.  

While his power numbers increased at home his average and on-base percentage stayed the same.  With this in mind, Werth will probably be able to provide some pop for the Nationals, just in the park of 25-30 home runs.  While he will be a defensive upgrade from Dunn, he will not be able to fill in the power vacuum left by Adam Dunn.  

The only other notable offensive unit added to the Nationals is Rick Ankiel, who signed a one-year deal for $1.5 million plus incentives which will platoon in the OF.  Jayson Werth and Rick Ankiel are not the men who will be able to rally around Ryan Zimmerman and give the Nationals a winning team.  

Jayson Werth and Rick Ankiel are by no means better then the combination of Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn that the Nationals had last year.  At this point I just start to feel bad for Ryan Zimmerman.  Zimmerman will once again have to carry the Nationals offensively in what is sure to be another losing year.

But the worst thing for the Nationals is that every team in the NL East improved in some way this offseason.  The Braves gained power-hitting second baseman Dan Uggla and utility man Erik Hinske while bolstering its bullpen with George Sherill.  

The Marlins signed Javier Vazquez and shored up its bullpen dilemma via free agency and trade.  

The Mets added very few players this off season, but have added Carrasco to replace Feliciano and are looking to a team that features Jason Bay, Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes healthy.  

Finally, the Phillies have added Cliff Lee to its rotation to create one of the best rotations in Major League history.     

The Nationals will be a team to look out for in the future with such stars as Strasburg, Harper and Ramos.  For the 2011 season, though, the Nationals will still finish last in the division due to a horrible rotation, a lack of offense and an improved division.

I predict the Nationals will therefore regress this season, eventually finishing the year at 65-95.         

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Shortly after former Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke didn’t get traded to the Washington Nationals on Sunday, I wrote a story about the Denny McLain trade back in 1970 and suggested that had Greinke come to Washington, things would have turned out just as bad for the Nationals as it did for the Senators some 40 years earlier.

But reader “Mike K” left a comment on that story yesterday and reminded me that the trade-that-almost-was was less like the Denny Mclain for everyone-good-on-the-Senators-roster and more like a trade from the dark days of the Nationals’ former persona.

Back when they were still the Montreal Expos.

Now, I know that some of you will say that this trade occurred because Bud Selig and Major League Baseball—then the owners of the team—told General Manager Omar Minaya to begin the process of contracting the team. The Expos were to just fade away into baseball history along with the Minnesota Twins.

While that is certainly true, the fact is that the Expos were actually in a pennant race in the summer of 2002 and traded three prospects and a major leaguer to the Cleveland Indians for Bartolo Colon. At the time, Colon was 29 and had averaged 15 wins per season since the late ’90s. Halfway through the 2002 season, Colon was 10-4 with a 2.55 ERA and seemed headed for the Cy Young Award.

But he never got the chance. He was traded in late June to Montreal for first baseman Lee Stevens, second baseman Brandon Phillips, outfielder Grady Sizemore and pitcher Cliff Lee.

Yeah.

Though Stevens had averaged 21 homers and 75 RBI over the previous seven seasons, he was 34 and was batting just .190 at the time of the trade. he retired after the 2002 season.

It’s the other three that make you shake your head.

Brandon Phillips was just 21 when he was traded to Cleveland. He had averaged .286-9-62 with 28 stolen bases in three minor league seasons. He was traded to the Reds in 2006 and has since averaged .275-23-87, won two Gold Gloves and was an All Star last season.

Grady Sizemore was even younger, just 19 when the trade occurred. In three seasons, Sizemore averaged .284-5-60 with a .383 on-base percentage in the Expos farm system. He became a major league regular in 2005 and has since then averaged .276-28-85 with 28 steals and a .368 on-base percent. Like Phillips, Sizemore has won two Gold Gloves and has gone to the All Star game.

Cliff Lee averaged 6-4, 3.89 in two seasons in the Expos minor league system. He averaged 11 strikeouts per nine innings and looked like a future All Star. He joined Cleveland in 2004 and has since averaged 16-9, 3.88 for the Indians, Phillies, Mariners and Rangers, is an All Star and won the Cy Young Award in 2008.

In his half-season with Montreal, Colon went 10-4 with a 3.31 ERA. He was traded to the Chicago White Sox that winter for Rocky Biddle, Jeff Liefer and Orlando Hernandez.

Over the next three seasons, he continued to pitch well, averaging 18-11, 4.09 for the White Sox and Angels. By 2006, injuries took their toll and Colon has won just 14 games over his last four years.

There may have been more lopsided trades in major league history, but I sure can’t think of them at the moment. For a total of 10 major league wins, the Expos gave up four Gold Gloves, a Cy Young Award and five All-Star appearances.

So replace Cliff Lee with Jordan Zimmermann. Remove Brandon Phillips and insert Danny Espinosa. Forget Grady Sizemore; now it’s Drew Storen. In three or four years, Zack Greinke will be on the downside of his career and those three current Nationals will be solid major league players.

Will they be as good as those three prospects traded by the Expos? It’s hard to tell, but certainly each has the potential to be very bit as good. But really, that’s not the point. Why trade away so much talent for so much uncertainty?

With Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips and Grady Sizemore, this first chapter of Washington Nationals’ history would have been far different.

Let’s make sure that the second chapter isn’t just a rewrite of the first. Keep the kids, Mike. Keep the kids.

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There has been a lot going on in baseball this winter, so I didn’t get a chance to comment on the Josh Willingham to the Oakland A’s trade. But let me just say this—what on earth are the Washington Nationals doing?

I don’t get this trade at all from their end. The Nationals sign a guy in Jayson Werth, who needs superstars and good players around him to be successful and what do the Nationals do? They trade their third-best offensive player for a couple of fringe prospects.

There’s nothing like paying a guy $126 million and surrounding him with guys like Roger Bernadina and Nyjer Morgan. Terrible. Just terrible.

The only logic I have for the Nationals trading Willingham is that they didn’t want to pay him the $5 million he was probably going to make in arbitration. I mean, that makes sense. Spend $126 million on Werth, who is only worth maybe around $80, but not pay Willingham $5 million.

Why not keep Willingham, hope he has a another solid offensive season and then flip him at the trade deadline when a team might be desperate enough to give them more than what they just got? I just don’t get it.

The Nationals really don’t know which way they want to go. That’s why they will once again finish in last place in the National League East in 2011.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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The Washington Nationals have agreed to terms with former Cardinals Starting Pitcher and OF Rick Ankiel, reports Sports Illustrated’s John Heyman.  The deal is worth $1.25 million dollars for one year.  He can earn another $1.25MM in performance bonuses.

Ankiel has a great baseball story to him. Rick attended Port St. Lucie High School in Florida, where he went 11–1 with a 0.47 ERA during his senior season, striking out 162 batters in 74.0 innings pitched, and was named the High School Player of the Year by USA Today in 1997. He was also a first-team high-school All-American pitcher.  He was so good he didn’t even need to be drafted.  

Ankiel signed with the Cardinals out of high school for a $2.5 million signing bonus, the fifth-highest ever given to an amateur player. In 1998, he was voted the best pitching prospect in both the Carolina and Midwest leagues, and was the Carolina League’s All-Star starting pitcher, Baseball America’s first-team Minor League All-Star starting pitcher, and the Cardinals’ Minor League Player of the Year. That year he led all minor league pitchers in strikeouts, with 222.  Ankiel had so much promise he was even compared to the likes of former Cardinals lefty Steve Carlton.

In 1999, he was named the Minor League Player of the Year by both Baseball America and USA Today. He was also Texas Leaguer All-Star pitcher, Double-A All-Star starting pitcher, Cardinals Minor League Player of the Year, and Baseball America 1st team Minor League All-Star starting pitcher.

 He pitched his first full season in 2000 at the age of 20 (second youngest in the league), posting an 11–7 record, a 3.50 ERA(tenth in the league), and 194 strikeouts (seventh in the league) in 30 games started. . He struck out batters at a rate of 9.98 strikeouts per nine innings (second in the NL only to Randy Johnson), and allowed only 7.05 hits per nine innings (second only to Chan Ho Park). He came in second (to Raphael Furcal) in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. He received The Sporting News Rookie Pitcher of the Year Award.

Then, disaster struck in the 2000 in the NL Division Series vs the Atlanta Braves. It wa clear Ankiel was having a bad game in the first two innings, but in the third inning, his stat line grew to this: 8 batters faced, 35 pitches, 4 earned runs, 2 hits, 4 walks, 5 wild pitches. 

Quickly the event was brushed off like a bad day as most pitchers experience, but something wasn’t quite right.  However, his next start in Game 2 of the NLCS vs the New York Mets, Ankiel threw everywhere but the catchers glove in the first inning.  Ankiel appeared again in the seventh inning of Game 5 facing four hitters, walking two, and throwing two more wild pitches. The Cardinals lost the series four games to one to the Mets.

The 2001 season had Ankiel reeling.  The loss of control was unknown to anyone, even himself.  He started the season so bad, he was sent all the way down to the Johnson City Cardinals, where he regained control and learned to be a part time Designated-Hitter.  A video can be seen herehttp://best.complex.com/2000s/Top-100-Sports-Moments/rick-ankiels-nlcs-pitching-meltdown  where Ankiel had another meltdown in AAA-Memphis where the crowd didn’t even give him the sympathy and heckled his control issues.

Thankfully, the story gets better.

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Zach Greinke for half of the Washington Nationals? Man, I’ve seen this story before.

Though its been reported that the Nationals and the Kansas City Royals had a trade in place before the former Cy Young Award winner turned the deal down, Nationals fans should look at the deal-that-never-was as yet one more gift this Christmas season.

Based on what has already been reported, Washington would have sent Jordan Zimmermann, one of Danny Espinosa or Ian Desmond, perhaps Wilson Ramos and a high quality, low-level minor league pitcher.

Give or take.

If in fact the Royals accepted the Nationals’ offer, than you’d have to assume that they offered more than the four players (in talent or quality) that Milwaukee ultimately gave up to get Greinke.

Based on every story I’ve read this morning, there isn’t a single Nationals media representative who isn’t happy that this deal didn’t happen.

Count me in that group. I’m old enough to remember the last time a Washington based team made a trade like this.

Late in 1970, the Washington Senators had just come off a dismal season and owner Bob Short was trying to recapture the magic of the previous year’s 86-76 finish. Denny McLain, the American League Cy Young Award winner two seasons earlier, had gotten into some trouble in 1970 that included  gambling and a ruckus with a Detroit writer.

After going 55-15, 2.37 in 1968 and 1969, he went 3-5, 4.63 in a suspension-shortened season. The Tigers were actively trying to trade him that off season but only one team was willing to take a chance on the 26-year-old.

The Washington Senators.

In a stunning move, Bob Short traded his team’s best pitcher, Joe Coleman, the starting left side of their infield, Eddie Brinkman and Aurelio Rodriguez and one of their best starter/relievers, Jim Hannan.

Brinkman, a Gold Glove quality shortstop, had always been a .200 hitter but under Ted Williams’ instruction, he had averaged .266 over the previous two seasons.

Rodriguez, obtained for fan favorite Kenny McMullen in a trade earlier that season, was also a stellar defender and batted .249-19-83, solid numbers for that era. Coleman, just 23, had averaged 11 wins for the Senators over the previous three seasons with a 3.37 ERA.

Hannan had averaged 9-8, 3.54 since 1968.

In return, the Senators received the aforementioned McLain and three guys who might have had trouble making the Tigers roster in 1971, pitcher Norm McRae, infielder Don Wert and outfielder Elliot Maddux.

It didn’t work out so well.

Maddux batted .217 with a home run in 1971. Don Wert batted .056 in his last major league season. McRae never pitched in the major leagues again.

And Denny McLain? He went 10-22 with a 4.28 ERA.

For the Tigers, Coleman won 20 games with a 3.27 ERA, and Rodriguez and Brinkman remained together for another three season in Detroit. providing steady defense and veteran leadership.

A year after the trade, the Senators were playing at Turnpike Stadium in Arlington Texas and the Tigers finished second, first and third over the next three seasons.

Sometimes, the best trades are the ones that are never made.

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They may not have the best stadium, uniforms, or team on paper, but they are certainly capable of drawing up some serious headlines. 

In the last two years they have drafted two phenoms: Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper.   

Lesser known early round picks like Drew Storen out of Stanford, stepped right in and made quite an impression for a last placed squad; 4-4, 3.58 ERA, 54 games, five saves, and 52 strikeouts in 55 innings. 

Recently the “Nats” shelled out millions for Jayson Werth, specifically seven years, and $126 million. They did lose the services of Adam Dunn, so why not replace him with a guy who has undoubtedly hit his stride.   

Full speed ahead.

At the hot corner is perennial All-Star, Ryan Zimmerman. I do not know him personally, but all signs point to a “good guy”. The most press this guy gets is getting his picture taken with number 1 draft picks! 

Besides picture time, Zimmerman is good for 30/100 and a defense that has been recognized with a Gold Glove in ’09.

Their middle infield is made up of Danny Espinosa and Ian Desmond. 

Espinosa is attempting to make the most of his opportunity and by all means, he has made great strides since being drafted in the third round of the 2008 draft. 

Desmond is the epitome of hard work. After toiling in the minors for five seasons, he lived up to expectations in 2010, putting up respectable numbers, numbers that are eerily similar to another shortstop that is now making $15 million a year. 

Obviously, there are many holes in this franchise. 

For example, the starting rotation is a bit shoddy, led by Livan Herandez and Jason Marquis. On the flipside, the Nats’ bullpen is full of young kids that can simply get guys out: Sean Burnett with a 2.14 ERA in 73 games and Doug Slaten holding opponents to a .225 batting average. 

Wishful thinking and the Nationals place third in 2011, but as we all know, they are not ready and fourth place is more than likely what it will come down to….But not for long as far as I’m concerned. 

Few people pay much attention to the cellar dweller Nationals and Florida Marlins.  Thankfully, over the next two to three years, the Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, and Atlanta Braves will be doing everything possible to ruin each other’s playoff chances.   

In the meantime, the Nationals are lying in the weeds, waiting for their time to strike.   

Within two years, Stephen Strasburg will be fully recovered and Bryce Harper, in all estimation, will be roaming the outfield full time. Added to that, A.J. Cole, a highly touted draft pick that fell to later rounds because of a previous commitment to the University of Miami, should be able to shore up the rotation. 

Things are afoot, the wheels are in motion, the time is right. 

Whatever cliché you want to use, the National League East will be one entertaining division come April.

Devon is the founder of The GM’s Perspective

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I was fairly unimpressed when the Washington Nationals announced the other day that the team had re-signed Chien-Ming Wang to a one-year contract that could pay him as much as $5 million if he successfully returns to the major leagues.

I didn’t much care because I assumed that he was nowhere close to being ready, that he was still that guy who could only throw an inning or two in the Instructional League, like he did last fall. I mean, if he was healthy, he would have pitched in the Winter Leagues to prove that he was 100 percent. 

Upon his signing the first time, I immediately penciled him into the Nationals’ starting rotation by June, July at the latest. I did this because, well, that’s what the team said was going to happen.

Of course, he was unable to competitively pitch until after the season was over.

I asked masn.com’s Pete Kerzel this afternoon about Wang. He had written an excellent article about the Nationals’ rotational hopes for 2011 and he had mentioned Wang as a possibility. I explained my concern over the dearth of information about the Taiwanese right-hander and asked him point blank if the former Yankee was ready to pitch now.

He replied, “Wang threw well in Fall Instructional League in Viera, and the fact that he had multiple suitors shows how many teams are in dire need of pitching. But he liked how the Nats have [given] him the time and patience to get healthy, hence his willingness to return. If Wang can be close to the pitcher he was in New York, the Nats’ rotation improves dramatically. He was a No. 2 [or] 3 in New York, and can shoulder the load, having pitched in such a major market. A healthy Wang makes the rotation much more solid and, factoring in Strasburg, makes it a quintet that could move from solid to good. Wang is throwing with no restrictions, only has to build up his arm strength, which is what Spring Training is about.” 

It would seem, then, that Chien-Ming Wang is ready to pitch, and if he is, the Nationals just got a great deal better. This isn’t a guy who has talent but an injury robbed him of showing what he could do.

He’s already done that.

In his first 14 professional games, Wang looked as if he was worth every penny of his very large signing bonus. Pitching for Staten Island of the Low-A New York-Penn League, he had a record of 4-4 and a 2.48 ERA, allowing just eight hits and two walks per nine innings.

But his world changed in his 15th  start.

He blew out his arm that night and missed the rest of that season and all of 2001. Some believe it was just “one of those things” that could happen to any pitcher, while others—many others—blame his injury on the extreme training regimens that cause Taiwanese pitchers to break down early.

Chin-hui Tsao, then considered a better prospect than Wang, told a Denver reporter that Japanese and American training was “child’s play” compared to what the Taiwanese endured.

“I practiced hard,” he said, “When I was just 18, I threw long toss for 30 minutes. Then, I threw three hours of batting practice followed by another hour of live-session BP.” By the time these pitchers reached college, they were already damaged. 

Wang returned to Staten Island in 2002 and continued to dominate. In 13 starts, he forged a 6-1 record with an ERA of 1.72.

Over the next five seasons, Wang went 32-18 with a 3.28 ERA as he worked his way up to Triple-A Columbus of the International League.

He learned his best pitch in 2004 when former Met Neil Allen taught him a 90 miles-per-hour pseudo-fastball that rode a flat plane towards home plate only to drop about eight inches as it reached the batter.

Johan Santana called it “The Ultimate Weapon.”

Wang arrived in New York in 2005, and from that first year until 2008, his last full season, he was one of the best pitchers in the American League:

In 2008, Wang won his 50th career game, the fastest major leaguer to reach that mark since Dwight Gooden in 1986.

Wang has a fastball that is consistently in the low 90s and tops out at 95 miles-per-hour. In addition, his sinker, splitter and slider are all quality Major League pitches. It’s that straight-to-the-plate-before-it-drops-eight-inches pitch, however, that makes him special.

He is as good on the road as he is at home, and he’s as good against right-handers as he is against lefties. He’s a ground-ball pitcher who relies on his middle defense to get him outs.

Let’s compare Wang’s ground-ball percentage to some of the Nationals’ starters from last season. Note: John Lannan and Jason Marquis are considered sinker-ball pitchers with high ground-ball out percentages:

Chien-Ming Wang: 61.1% 

John Lannan: 52.7%

Jason Marquis: 49.7%

Craig Stammen: 47.1%

J.D. Martin: 36.2%

The sky was the limit for the 28-year-old, or so it seemed until that sky began to reign down upon him over the past two seasons.

In June 2008, Wang was running the bases in Houston when he tore a ligament in his right foot. Though surgery wasn’t required, he was forced to miss the rest of the season as the damaged foot healed.

Wang said that his foot was 100 percent when the 2009 season started, but something was still very wrong. After three starts, Wang’s record was 0-3 with an ERA of 34.50. He was giving up 14.1 hits and 4.2 walks per nine innings.

In the end, it became obvious that Wang’s mechanics were being altered by his foot injury from the season before. (It was altered mechanics following a broken toe that cut short the career of the great Dizzy Dean.) Southern Connecticut University did a study and found out that his release point was now five inches higher than normal.

Wang was again placed on the disabled list on July 15th and underwent shoulder surgery two weeks later. He began throwing in late December and most of his throwing was on flat ground.

Because of an embarrassment of riches, both on the field and in the bank, the Yankees chose not to tender Wang and instead filled his roster spot with one of the team’s many young talents.

Wang was supposed to take to the mound early last summer for a few rehab games before joining the Nationals in July or August. It never happened. It was a few weeks after the season ended, while playing in the Instructional League, that he pitched one inning twice.

For the Nationals’ Jordan Zimmermann, arm or shoulder surgery is frightening because for him, velocity is everything. Wang, however, makes his living with his sinker and chances are he’ll return to the mound the same pitcher who left it.

Next season, the Washington Nationals could have the makings of a decent starting rotation. The starting five could include:

1. Jason Marquis

2. John Lannan

3. Jordan Zimmermann

4. Chien-Ming Wang

5. Yunesky Maya, Livan Hernandez or Ross Detwiler

Often, the difference between a competitive team and an also-ran is that fourth starting pitcher. If Wang can return to the form that allowed him to win 19 games in both 2006 and 2007, the Nationals could win—dare I say it?—more games than they lose in 2011.

Well, probably not. But I sound a little less crazy predicting it with Wang in the rotation.

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The various winter leagues don’t have much longer to run, so I thought it a good idea to take a look and see how some of the Nationals are performing this year.

A few of them completed their off seasons in the Arizona Fall League and are noted:

Roger Bernadina is batting just .208/.333/.250, but he has played in just seven games so I don’t think his numbers tell very much.

I can’t figure Bernadina out: He is without question the most chiseled of all the Nationals and is a superior athlete.

But after hitting as high as .291 last season, he started a slow downward spiral as if the National League pitchers suddenly figured something out.

Michael Burgess batted.246/.286/.477 in the Arizona Fall League with a couple of home runs in 65 at-bats.

Burgess—who is prone to the strikeout—fanned 20 times, 31 percent of the time. If Burgess makes it to the major leagues, and I am less certain of that each passing year, he is going to be a low average, low on-base percentage power bat.

Over his minor league career, he’s struck out 29% of the time, so I doubt something is suddenly going to change.

Danny Espinosa had trouble making contact in his September call-up with the Nationals and that problem continues this winter.

Though he is batting .281/.343/.483—very good numbers—he has struck out 27 times in 89 at-bats, like Burgess, 31% of the time.

His career strikeout rate stands at about 25%.

I keep waiting for Jesus Flores to blow something else out, but he is still in the lineup.

In 54 at-bats, Flores is batting .352/.379/.556 with two homers and 11 RBI. I just wonder how long it is going to take for the Nationals to feel comfortable that his injury-plagued days are behind him.

If the team is certain that he’s healthy, they can trade Wilson Ramos in a package for a quality starting pitcher. Flores, though a free swinger, is striking out just 12 percent of his at-bats.

I’m beginning to wonder if Stephen Lombardozzi isn’t the answer at second base for the Nationals and not Danny Espinosa.

A career .293/.373/.402 batter, he batted .293/.385/.439 last fall in the Arizona Fall League.

Talk about consistency: Lombardozzi has struck out in less than 10 percent of his at-bats.

He will hit fewer homers than Espinosa but won’t strike out as much. Their gloves are just about equal. Lombardozzi should be ready in 2012.

Perennial prospect Chris Marrero continues to improve in most phases of his game. In 85 at-bats, he is batting .306/.351/.424 with two homers and 16 RBI.

Like Burgess and Espinosa, though Marrero is striking out about 31 percent of the time. His bat is good enough to make it to the major leagues but he has an Adam Dunn glove at first.

Maybe he’ll be traded to an American League team one day soon.

Derek Norris just keeps on being Derek Norris.

In 54 at-bats in the Arizona Fall League, he hit .278/.403/.667 with four homers and 19 RBI; however, his strikeout rate is the highest of all the winter Nationals at 33 percent. That said, man, a .403 on-base percent.

I guess I can live with the strikeouts.

I think Eury Perez is the best pure hitter the Nationals have.

In 101 at-bats, he is batting .347/.400/.396 with 17 stolen bases. The kid is greased lightning. His 16 percent strikeout rate is livable.

In almost 1,000 career minor league at-bats, Perez is a .312/.390/.402 batter, striking out about 15 percent of the time.

He has 140 career stolen bases with an 80 percent success rate.

Wilson Ramos is proving to be a steal.

Ramos, who came to the Nationals in the Matt Capps trade last summer, is hitting .311/.367/.519 with six homers and 27 RBI in 135 at-bats.

His strikeout rate is 19%, good considering his power production this winter.

In 1,500 minor league at-bats, Ramos has batted .285/.332/.431 with 39 home runs.

Adam Carr was one of the biggest bats in college baseball, but the Nationals drafted him as a pitcher in 2006; he is finally beginning to show that the team was right.

Playing in the Arizona Fall League, Carr went 1-0, 2.08 in 13 innings. His batting average-against was a minuscule .137.

Cole Kimball used to be pretty bad starting pitcher, but in the last couple of seasons has become a solid relief pitcher with a blazing fastball.

His AFL stats were phenomenal as he crafted an ERA of 0.75 with 15 strikeouts in just 13 innings.

In his first full season as a closer, Kimball went 8-1, 2.17 with 18 saves, allowing 5.7/4.5/11.6 per nine-innings.

Forget the shaky start last September from Yunesky Maya.

The Cuban defector is now 4-1 with a 0.69 ERA, with 41 strikeouts in 39 innings. I still think that Maya can be a solid number three starter for the Nationals next season.

He was 13-4, 2.22 in the Cuban National Season and was second in strikeouts to Aroldis Chapman (now of the Reds). He pitched twice in the World Baseball Classic and did well both times.

I realize that Winter League baseball doesn’t give you the whole story about a player, but it does give you a vision into their talents.

Over the next season or two, the Nationals will become stronger with the addition of Several young players, the remnants of “The Plan.”

As much as I like Danny Espinosa, Stephen Lombardozzi seems to be a better all around player. His speed and contact ability would make him ideal to lead off for the Nationals.

Wilson Ramos will probably play 120 games in 2011, but I have this lingering hunch that if the Nationals are sure—really sure—that Jesus Flores is healthy, he could become the stop-gap until Derek Norris is ready to take over as catcher, allowing the team to trade the valuable Wilson Ramos.

I wouldn’t want to be have to play the Nationals in the next few years and to deal with their bullpen once the starter has been retired for the night.

If the Nationals don’t make any more significant trades this winter, their starting rotation will be led by John Lannan, Jordan Zimmermann, Jason Marquis and Yunesky Maya. I think Maya is ready to have his major league breakout, winning 13 games with an ERA under 4.00.

But things will really get dicey when opposing teams get into the now formidable bullpen. Returning from last season are:

Drew Storen: 4-4, 3.58, 7.8/3.6/8.5

Tyler Clippard: 11-8, 3.07, 6.8/4.1/11.1

Sean Burnett: 1-7, 2.14, 7.4/2.9/8.9

Doug Slaten: 4-1, 3.10, 7.5/4.2/8.0

Colin Balester: 0-1, 2.57, 6.4/4.7/12.0

And are newest reliever:

Henry Rodriguez: 1-0, 4.26, 8.1/4.3/10.5

Notice anything unusual about these six bullpen stalwarts? They all have strikeouts per nine-innings above eight and two have strikeouts per nine of 11 or more.

In 2009, only two players with more than 10 innings had strikeout rates per nine-innings above eight, Tyler Clippard and Joel Hanrahan.

Nationals’ manager Mike Rizzo has made it clear that once he had full control over his team, changes would be made.

He would replace slow-footed defenders with strong and quick athletes. And all of those soft-tossers in the bullpen would give way to players who could throw in the high 90’s.

Mission accomplished.

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After a year of trying, the Washington Nationals have finally succeeded in trading outfielder Josh Willingham. As of early this afternoon, the 32-year-old was officially an Oakland Athletic.

Coming East are pitcher Henry Rodriguez and center fielder Corey Brown.

We’ll talk about Rodriguez another day. Let’s focus on Brown for now.

Many have written today that because of his poor performance when promoted to Triple-A Sacramento this past season, he is no longer a true prospect. The 24-year-old Brown batted just .193/.253/.378 with five home runs and 20 RBI.

Clearly over matched or a slow learner?

Nationals’ general manager said on Thursday that Brown started slowly at each minor league level but in time mastered that league’s pitching. No reason to believe that won’t happen this time, he suggested.

Brown was a collegiate star at Oklahoma State and was considered a top-20 pick in the 2007 MLB amateur draft. He was in the top two or three of every meaningful offensive statistic in the Big 12 in his last year with the Cowboys. And John Sickels named him the 10th-best offensive player in the draft.

And yet the Oakland Athletics took him with the 59th pick—a compensation pick for the loss of Frank Thomas—and 10 spots after the Nationals took Michael Burgess, a far less talented player.

I guess that’s what happens when you plead “no contest” to felony battery charges when you have sex with a 14-year-old in high school after giving her alcohol. It was ugly enough that the University of Virginia withdrew their scholarship offer.

He hit well that summer of 2007, batting .268/.379/.545 with 11 home runs and 48 RBI in 59 games in the rookie-level Northwest League. Since then, he has made a steady progression towards the majors. Brown hit 30 home runs in 2008 at the Class-A level.

Last season, he hammered the Double-A Texas League, batting .320/.415/.502 with 10 homers and 49 RBI in 331 at-bats before his summer promotion to Triple-A.

To that point, he was considered a quality prospect. Sickels called him a cross between Kirk Gibson and Jeremy Burnitz. Scouts called him “toolsy” with outstanding raw power, good speed and a strong and accurate arm.

When he arrived in Sacramento last summer, it was assumed he’d be a mid-summer call-up to the Athletics next season.

And then everything went sour. I’m sure players have had a worse 40-game span at the Triple-A level but I’m having a difficult time thinking of who they were. He looked terrible.

But I believe Mike Rizzo. He struggles at first when promoted, and then he figures it out.

In his first season at Double-A, he struggled, batting just .268/.349/.488. He returned the following year, and hit .320/.415/.502. There is no reason to believe that won’t happen again in 2011.

There has also been much discussion about his high strikeout rate. To be sure, he strikes out a lot. But so did Adam Dunn. Let’s compare Dunn’s minor league statistics with Brown’s based on a 550 at-bat season (it’s easier to compare that way):

Average/On-base Percentage/Slugging Percent:

Brown: .272/.359/.497

Dunn: .304/.425/.525

Doubles:

Brown: 31

Dunn: 28

Triples:

Brown: 8

Dunn: 1

Home Runs:

Brown: 26

Dunn: 28

RBI:

Brown: 93

Dunn: 95

Stolen Bases/Caught Stealing:

Brown: 18/3

Dunn: 17/10

Walks:

Brown: 71

Dunn: 100

Strikeouts:

Brown: 170

Dunn: 125

Grounded Into Double Plays:

Brown: 5

Dunn: 14

Dunn and Brown had roughly the same number of minor league at-bats so this is a pretty good comparison.

Obviously, if you fan 50 more times in a minor league season than Adam Dunn, then yes, you have a strikeout problem. I’m not sure if that will ever get better. But there are a few players in the major leagues today who strike out 200 times and are All-Stars.

Speed is another obvious difference. Brown averaged eight triples to Dunn’s one and grounded into just five double plays versus Dunn’s 14. Dunn had a surprising number of steals, but he was thrown out often while Brown almost never was.

Both had good on-base percentages and slugging marks.

I’m not comparing Brown to Adam Dunn; they are different types of players. But their stats are similar enough that it Brown shouldn’t be written off because of 40 bad games in the minor leagues. Corey Brown was not, as some suggest, a throw-in, that fireballer Henry Rodriguez was the centerpiece of the trade.

Though I don’t think that Brown will become a star in the major leagues, he will be a solid, productive player. He will play quality defense in between Jayson Werth and Roger Bernandina or Mike Morse in a year or two and will hit well, batting around .275/.370/.500 with 20-25 home runs, 85 RBI and 25 stolen bases.

And yes, he will strike out close to 200 times. But, like Adam Dunn, he will make up for it with a higher on-base percentage.

My guess is that unless another trade happens, this will be Nyjer Morgan’s last year in Washington. When 2012 comes around, Corey Brown will be the team’s everyday center fielder.

Here’s hoping, anyway.

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