Kuzul

It has been reported by ESPN’s Buster Olney that the Washington Nationals have agreed to a trade that would send outfielder Josh Willingham to the Oakland Athletics for two young players, one of which has some major league experience.

The two players are currently unidentified, but a source in Oakland had confirmed earlier today that there were serious talks surrounding the Athletics’ interest in Willingham. Prior to the winter meetings, there were multiple sources claiming that Willingham would indeed be traded before the 2011 season and apparently those sources were accurate.

Josh had high hopes of signing a multi-year contract extension with the Nationals, but now he must move on to another city. The Oakland A’s weren’t the only organization interested in Willingham. It has been reported that three or four teams have also showed some type of interest in the 31-year-old outfielder during the winter meetings.

The complete terms of this deal are currently disclosed, pending the physicals of all three players involved. There is only one year left on Willingham’s current contract, and a re-negotiation has yet to be discussed. If a new contract is not agreed to, then Willingham can become a free agent after the 2011 season.

Last season with the Washington Nationals, Willingham played in 114 games, hitting .268 with 16 home runs, 56 RBI’s, and eight stolen bases in 370 at-bats. He missed the final month and a half of play due to a knee injury.

Oakland adds some more fire power to their lineup after acquiring designated hitter Hideki Matsui earlier this week.

An announcement regarding the complete details of this trade may be made as early as Thursday night.  

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Ken Rosenthal is reporting this morning that the Washington Nationals have traded Josh Willingham to the Oakland Athletics for two minor leaguers, one of whom has some major league experience. However, no word yet as to who they are.

Though I have enjoyed watching Josh play for the Nationals for the past two seasons, it makes perfect sense to move him now, a year before free agency.

First, he was physically fragile before coming to Washington and nothing has changed since he became a National. Willingham has averaged just 127 games per season for his career and that number has dropped in his two seasons with the Nationals.

There is no certainty that he will ever be able to play a full season.

Secondly, his defense is modest at best. The Nationals are trying to become more athletic and defensively minded, and right now he just doesn’t fit general manager Mike Rizzo’s vision of a quick and athletic team.

Third, Rizzo has said many times that Roger Bernadina has “Barry Bonds” defense in left field but is just “okay” in center and right. Also, Michael Morse hit 15 home runs in just 266 at bats last season; there is little doubt that if given the chance, Morse could play every day in left and produce Willingham-esque numbers, something along the lines of .280/24/80.

Further, Morse reminds me a lot of Jayson Werth four seasons ago. They have the same build, are both high-average hitters and show a great deal of power. He could blossome into a star slugger if given the opportunity.

Rizzo said yesterday that center fielder Nyjer Morgan will only play against righties in 2011 (he has a lifetime .200 batting average against lefties) and would move Jayson Werth to center against lefties. That would provide several different options with Bernadina and Morse at the corner positions.

Lastly, Willingham earned $4.6 million last season and will probably earn close to $6 million in 2011 through arbitration. If Rizzo can jettison that money, he will be in a better position to sign first baseman Adam LaRoche, whose offensive production is a little better than Willingham’s.

I love Josh Willingham, but he is not a long-term piece to the Nationals’ puzzle. The question is, who did the team get in return? I mean, “two minor leaguers” is a little vague at this point.

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He was one of the Nationals’ prized rookies. He didn’t come from a large school but was impressive enough to be selected early in the draft. By the age of 23, he was part of Washington’s rotation and though his statistics weren’t overly impressive, his overall performance was quite good.

He ended his rookie year with a 4.63 ERA and won almost as many games as he lost. He was thought to be a permanent fixture in the Nationals’ rotation until Tommy John surgery forced him to the sidelines for more than a year.

He was the team’s No. 2 starter when he went down. It took almost a year to regain his strength and control, but once he returned to the mound, he seemed to be in pre-injury form.

There is just one problem though: The Washington Nationals don’t seem particularly interested in having him return.

Matt Chico is a man without a job.

You were thinking I was talking about Jordan Zimmermann, weren’t you?

There are many similarities between Chico and Zimmermann. Both come from obscure college backgrounds. Both were highly ranked prospects. They had similar rookie statistics and identical earned run averages. They were  both just beginning to grasp what being a major league pitcher was all about when Tommy John surgery sidetracked their careers.

But that’s where the similarities end.

There was a Jordan Zimmermann watch all last summer as he regained his strength and then finally began to pitch again in the minor leagues. His return to the Nationals brought almost as much attention as Stephen Strasburg.

Almost.

Matt Chico, however, had his surgery more than two years ago. He rehabbed in the minor leagues, pitching for both Class-A Hagerstown and Double-A Harrisburg before moving on to Triple-A Syracuse. By Opening Day 2010, he was capable of being part of the team’s starting rotation.

But it never happened. Jordan Zimmermann was whisked back into the rotation the moment he was ready and Matt Chico continues his minor league banishment, lucky to remain on the 40-man roster. 

Why?

After a superb high school career, Chico was selected in the second-round of the 2001 amateur draft by the Boston Red Sox. He chose not to sign, however, and played a year for Southern Cal (6-4, 5.48) before moving on to Palomar Junior College.

He was selected by the Arizona Diamondbacks (and Mike Rizzo) in the third round of the 2003 draft and received a $365,000 signing bonus.

Over the next three seasons, Chico crafted a minor league record of 25-18, 3.43 and entered 2006 as the 112th best prospect in the major leagues and third best in the Diamondbacks’ star-studded system.

He spent 2006 at Double-A Tennessee and had a record of 7-2, 2.22, 6.9/2.3/7.0 (hits/walks/strikeouts per nine innings) by the beginning of August.

The Diamondbacks, in a pennant race and flush with prospects traded Chico and fellow pitcher Garrett Mock to the Nationals for Livan Hernandez On Aug. 6 2006.

The 2007 season was the “Year of the Great Cattle Call” for the Washington Nationals. Unable to afford any decent free-agent pitchers, then general manager Jim Bowden brought in truckloads of failed major league starters in hopes that one or two of them would make the team’s depleted rotation.

Things were so bad that Chico earned his roster spot in spring training even though he pitched poorly, going 2-2, 5.16, 11.1/3.4/4.8 in 23 innings.

All things considered, Chico’s rookie season was certainly good enough and not that much different from Jordan Zimmermann’s rookie campaign two years later. Let’s compare the two:

Record

Chico: 7-9

Zimmermann: 3-5

ERA

Chico: 4.63

Zimmermann 4.63

Percentage of Quality Starts

Chico: 32 percent

Zimmermann: 36 percent

Innings Per Start

Chico: 5.6

Zimmermann: 5.7

Hits/Walks/Strikeouts Per Nine-Innings

Chico: 9.9/4.0/5.1

Zimmermann: 9.4/2.9/9.1

Opponents Average/On-Base Pct./Slugging Pct.

Chico: .281/.354/.471

Zimmermann: .274/.332/.429

Percentage of Pitches Thrown For Strikes

Chico: 67 percent

Zimmermann: 62 percent

Chico entered 2008 as the Nationals’ No. 2 starter, and after three starts it looked like he was on a path towards continued improvement. He had an ERA of 3.72 and allowed 9.4 hits, 3.1 walks and 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings.

Midway through his fourth start, however, he felt a “pop” in his elbow. Two doctors examined Chico and found no structural damage, so he continued to pitch. In his last five starts, he couldn’t get anyone out. His ERA over that span was 7.85 as he allowed 15.4 hits and 7.8 walks per nine innings.

Dr. James Andrews found the damage that the others could not, and Chico underwent Tommy John surgery on July 3 2008.

He returned to the mound late in 2009 with rehab stints with Low-A Hagerstown and Double-A Harrisburg. In 61 innings, Chico went a combined 2-4, 3.96, 9.5/4.1/6.5.

Last season, Chico split time between Harrisburg and Triple-A Syracuse, logging an effective 7-9, 3.62 season, allowing 9.3 hits and just 2.6 walks per nine-innings while striking out almost six batter per game.

And in a one-game reprieve, he threw five quality innings for the Nationals, allowing two runs and six hits (3.60 ERA). He was immediately returned to the minor leagues.

To be sure, Chico does not have the skills of Jordan Zimmermann. What he does have, however, is a deep understanding of how to throw a baseball.

In 2007, then GM Jim Bowden said, “Matt Chico has great poise on the mound and the ability to go after hitters.” Added current general manager Mike Rizzo, “Matt was learning how to pitch at the major league level, which can be tough. It’s okay to do that if the pitcher has the makeup, character and stomach for it. I think Matt is that type of pitcher.”

Chico has a fastball that can reach 94 mph but usually is in the 91 to 93 mph range. He throws a two-seam fastball, curve and a quality change-up.

Here is Chico’s TSN.ca scouting report: “Chico is gritty and has a sneaky delivery. He has a good command of his pitches and throws consistently in the low 90s. He gets punished, however, when he throws too hard and needs to mix his pitches to be successful at the major league level.”

TSN sees Chico as a “solid back of the rotation starter.”

Said Washington Post beat writer Chico Harlan a couple of years ago, “Few in baseball projected Chico to have much high-end potential, but he seemed to operate with an admirable serviceability.

“It’s easy,” Harlan said, “to envision Chico as a number-four or number-five starter.”

I am in no way suggesting that the name of Matt Chico should be uttered in the same sentence with Jordan Zimmermann. To compare them is to compare apples and oranges.

So why did I compare the two?

To show that while there is a great deal of difference in their talent, there wasn’t a great deal of difference in their rookie seasons. And if there wasn’t a great deal of difference, why did the team wait with baited breath for Zimmermann’s return while Chico’s name has barely been mentioned for more than a year?

Look, I get it. Matt Chico is not the prettiest girl at the dance. But why does he have to sit along the wall of the gymnasium, waiting for someone to ask him to dance?

He’s danced before. He’s not a great dancer but he is certainly good enough. And he might even become a good dancer if he can just get on that floor and practice.

The Washington Nationals have come a long way since those days when a green rookie coming off a bad spring could earn a spot in the starting rotation. Possible additions to the rotation now have names like Zach Greinke and Matt Garza.

That said, they haven’t come so far that they can turn their back on a 27-year-old with 40 career starts.

Players shouldn’t lose their jobs to an injury. When Jordan Zimmermann returned last summer, the Nationals unceremoniously dumped a pitcher from the rotation for him. But when Matt Chico—with 17 more career starts than Zimmermann—returned to the Nationals for a single game, he was lucky to find a locker and uniform.

Matt Chico may not be the answer to the Nationals’ rotational troubles, but he’s earned a long look before the team moves on to other options.

If Jordan Zimmermann doesn’t have to fight for his job, than neither should Matt Chico.

It’s only fair.

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Now, don’t everyone gang up on me. I’m just thinking out loud for a minute.

Since the end of the season, the Washington Nationals have been chasing a bevy of top-flight starting pitchers including the Royals’ Zach Greinke. The 26-year-old is so good that the asking price for the former Cy Young Award winner is four top prospects.

And that’s the starting point.

The Royals have been clear as to the type of players they would want in return. From the Nationals, they would want a replacement starting pitcher (possibly John Lannan, but probably Jordan Zimmermann), a middle infielder (most definitely Ian Desmond), a major league outfielder (Roger Bernadina and/or Mike Morse), a catcher (Wilson Ramos because Derrek Norris is still two years away) and a lower-level minor league outfielder, perhaps someone like Eury Perez.

I doubt they would take Lannan, who is a good number-three starter, but just a number three. Jordan Zimmermann is a borderline top-of-the-rotation starter but with Stephen Strasburg on the mend, he’ll slide down to the two-spot next season.

Though he is considered one of baseball’s best pitchers, Greinke has had only one outstanding season. In 2009, he was Cy Young himself, going 16-8, 2.16. Very impressive, indeed.

But in his other six seasons, from 2004 to 2008, and 2010, Greinke pitched well but wasn’t a star. He gave no indication that he could carry a team in a pennant race.

The Nationals have on their roster a pitcher who has done fairly well in parts of two seasons in Washington. J.D. Martin is a former first-round pick and has produced as a minor-league free agent who made it to the majors without his 96 mph fastball.

Let’s compare Greinke’s numbers (all except those from that magical 2009 season) and compare it to Martin’s efforts, both based a full 162-game season:

Greinke 10-13, 4.25, 9.6/3.4/7.4, 1.35 Whip (base runners per inning)

Martin  9-13, 4.13, 10.2/2.5/4.9   1.34 Whip

To be fair, Greinke’s sample is six times larger than Martin’s and I am in no way suggesting that they are equals when on a major league mound. That said, the internal numbers aren’t that different. Greinke gives up fewer hits but walks more batters. Their base runners allowed per inning is almost identical. And Martin’s ERA is a little lower as well.

I didn’t include Greinke’s Cy Young Award season in his career numbers because I am not sure that he can ever duplicate it. In that one season, he allowed 1.4 fewer hits and .3 walks per nine-innings while striking out 2.1 more batters. His ERA was 1.66 runs lower than his career average.

Last season, all of his internal numbers returned to career form and his ERA was the highest its been since 2005.

It seems like the Royals want four or five prospects for a pitcher that doesn’t exist. They are negotiating a trade for the 2009 Greinke who may never, probably will never, return.

Matt Garza of Tampa Bay, whose asking price is probably half that of Zach Greinke, has very similar career numbers. Let’s compare them based on a 162-game season:

Garza: 12-13, 3.97, 8.7/3.2/7.1, 1.31 Whip

Greinke: 11-12, 3.82, 9.1/2.3/7.6, 1.36 Whip

Both players are 26-years-old, both players allow about the same number of base runners per game, and both players average about the same number of wins per season.

Garza hasn’t had that really special season like Greinke but neither has he totally bombed (Greinke went 5-17, 5.80 in 2005).

I don’t understand all the love for Greinke. One season does not a career make. If the Nationals really want to trade for a pitcher, let it be Garza. He’s just as good as Greinke and can be had for much less.

And really, how much better would either of them be over a full season than J.D. Martin, at least based on past history? If they all start the same number of games, I’d say four or five games.

Is the $12 or $13 million in additional payroll costs worth four or five games next season?

Perhaps 2011 should be the last season that the Nationals can afford to look closely at pitchers like J.D. Martin, guys who aren’t great but can do quality work from the back of the rotation.

Martin is capable of a 10-10, 4.10 type of season, the kind of pitching most good teams have at the back of the rotation.

Forget Greinke, consider Garza, and give Martin a try. That’s my take, anyway.

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There are many glum faces along the National League East corridor this morning.

The best starting rotation in the league just became the best in all of baseball, perhaps the best in the last half-decade or so.

Suddenly, moves made by the other four teams—the Braves, Marlins, Mets and Nationals—seem to have gone for naught. Instead of being just a few games better than the other contenders, the Philadelphia Phillies are in a division all their own.

And the cackling can be heard straight down I-95.

Many are suggesting that the Nationals immediately stop their pursuit of pitching upgrades, that adding Carl Pavano through free agency or trading for Zach Greinke or Matt Garza is fruitless.

Cliff Lee could beat John Lannan 5-2 and Zach Greinke 3-2. A loss is a loss, regardless of its beauty. 

Moreover, the cost for those other pitchers just increased, as Lee’s suitors now turn to those four or five available top pitchers, driving up their cost.

What’s a moribund franchise to do?

The first problem is that the Jayson Werth signing will make little sense if it ends up being the only major change the Nationals make over the winter. Those $18 million dollars just can’t be justified as a stand-alone contract.

But I agree with the pundits that it doesn’t make much sense to bring in those hotshot starters if they give you only a minimally better chance to win the game.

If the Nationals open the 2011 season with just the pitchers they now have, this is how the rotation might look with projected statistics based on how they’ve performed the past two or three seasons and based on a 162-game season:

1. John Lannan: 10-14, 4.10, 9.4/3.3/4.6

Lannan’s 2010 season hurt his career numbers, but a sore elbow certainly hurt his performance last season. He was one of just a handful of pitchers to have an ERA below 4.00 in 2008 and 2009.

On a good team, Lannan could be counted on for: 12-10, 3.75 ERA

2. Jordan Zimmermann: 6-10, 4.71, 9.3/2.9/8.8

Zimmermann’s numbers are deceiving.

He’s had many great starts over his two seasons but a few rookie-roughed-up debacles skewed his stats. He’s a borderline number one starter or a top number two. 

Zimmerman’s good team stats with a little experience: 15-11, 3.44 ERA

3. Jason Marquis: 14-12, 4.37, 9.1/3.5/4.9

The above numbers are Marquis’ actual statistics from 2007-2009.

After elbow surgery and time on the disabled list last season, there is no reason to believe that Marquis cannot return to his solid—though not stellar—performances of the last five or six seasons.

4. Livan Hernandez: 10-12, 3.66, 9.2/2.7/4.8

After a few difficult seasons, Hernandez returned to form last season (see above).

He is nothing more than a number four or five starter, but he does his job effectively, pitching 200 innings, shortening the game and giving his team a chance to win.

There are a few players who might secure the final spot in the rotation:

Ross Detwiler: 3-14, 4.74, 10.3/4.2/5.2

Those numbers are ugly, but good rookie pitchers sometimes pitch ugly.

Last season, heading into his final start against the Phillies, Detwiler—the Nationals’ first-round pick in 2007—had a fine record of 1-2, 2.52.

He has shown he can be a starter in the National League. It’s just the matter of if he will.

Projected record for good team with some experience: 10-10, 4.10

Yunesky Maya: 0-3, 5.88, 10.4/3.8/4.2

Signed last summer as a free agent, Maya was one of Cuba’s best pitchers on their international traveling team.

He started five games in the minors and did well, winning a game and crafting a 3.38 ERA. He allowed just 7.6 hits per nine innings while striking out nearly eight.

This winter, he was even better.

Pitching in the Dominican Winter League, Maya went 4-1 with a 0.56 ERA, striking out a batter an inning while allowing less than four runners per game.

With the Nationals last fall, he looked nervous during his first four starts but settled down in his last game against the Mets, allowing two earned runs while striking out four in six innings.

Maya could be the key for the Nationals rotation.

He dominated during the World Baseball Classic in 2009, finishing with a 1.23 ERA. He has the talent to be a true number three starter, and that will happen once he gains experience. The question is whether he gains that experience in the minors or with the Nationals in 2011.

And if Stephen Strasburg follows fellow teammate Jordan Zimmermann, he will return from Tommy John surgery sometime in August, further solidifying the rotation.

To be clear, the Phillies will win a lot games against a lot of different teams next season, the Nationals included. Nothing is going to change that.

Adding pitchers like Carl Pavano or Matt Garza will make the Nationals better, but not better enough to succeed within the division.

The only way the Nationals can improve now is to spend their available contract dollars—dollars that would have been spent on Cliff Lee or Matt Garza—on productive hitters.

Adam LaRoche has to be the club’s new first baseman. He can be counted on to provide 25 home runs and 100 RBI. His defense is good.

Here are my offensive projections for the team:

1B—Adam LaRoche (assuming): .265-25-90

2B—Danny Espinosa: .250-20-70, 25 steals

SS—Ian Desmond: .270-15-65, 20 steals

3B—Ryan Zimmerman: .300-30-110

LF—Josh Willingham: .265-24-75

CF—Nyjer Morgan: .270-2-40, 40 steals

RF—Jayson Werth: .290-30-100

C—Pudge and Ramos: .265-8-50

That’s a very good offense, again assuming the Nationals can sign LaRoche. But there are some power-hitting center fielders out there.

What if the Nationals were able to trade three or four prospects—like they would have for Zach Greinke—and replace Nyjer Morgan with a .280-25-75 kind of hitter?

Better yet, Jayson Werth has shown he can play center field. Move him over and let Mike Morse (15 home runs in 266 at-bats last year) play right field every day with Roger Bernandina as his backup.

That could be a formidable offense.

I believe in this team. It is one or two more good players from crossing that elusive .500 finish line.

But the Cliff Lee to Philadelphia move just increased the cost of those remaining top pitchers by 20 or 30 percent.

Forget the pitching and go with the offense, Nationals, and let all those arms culled during “The Plan” help lead you through the beginning of “Phase Two.”

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Bill Ladson of nationals.com reported on Sunday that the Washington Nationals are interested in signing first baseman Derrek Lee.

Oh, please.

If the Nationals indeed were to sign the 34-year-old, it would undo virtually all the goodwill the team received when it signed right-fielder Jayson Werth a week ago. Last Sunday, the team was talking about this being just the first step of “Phase II” of the team’s rebuilding program. No longer would the team rely on scouting and draft picks alone. They were now going after the best players available.

We are waiting, but nothing has happened. And while I understand that Adam LaRoche may receive better offers elsewhere, I can’t believe that Derrek Lee is the next-best player available.

Look, there are just too many reasons to believe the story isn’t true. First, Lee is getting old, and his stats are reflecting that. Over the last 10 seasons, Lee averaged .292/.378/.521 with 31 home runs and 95 RBI.  Last season, Lee split time with the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves and hit .260/.347/.428 with just 19 home runs and 80 runs driven in.

True, a thumb injury slowed him early in the season, but he was mostly healthy when he joined the Braves and his numbers over the last 39 games in Atlanta were only peripherally better.

His clutch-hitting statistics also dropped in 2010. In 2009, Lee batted .320/.424/.600, about as good as it gets. Last season, he hit .283/.411/.552. With the game late or close, he dropped from .302/.381/.512 to .241/.355/.484.

And while he is a former Gold Glove winner, there is no question that his glove, as well as his bat, has seen its best days.

I’m guessing that this “news” is the Nationals trying to pressure Adam LaRoche into signing with the team quickly or risk losing the opportunity altogether. Really, of the suitors sitting in his living room, the Nationals make the most sense. He could be the difference between getting better and getting good next season..

If the Nationals can’t get LaRoche and have to go “outside the box,” they have a better prospect than Lee. Prior to last season, Cantu has averaged .274-21-94 with 41 doubles and a .320 on-base percent. His first-base defense is adequate to slightly above average.

And he could come much cheaper than Derrek Lee, who would be blocking Chris Marrero and Tyler Moore if he signs a two-year deal. And he’s a good clutch hitter, much better that Adam Dunn. With two outs and runners in scoring position, he batted  .280/.358/.453, all great numbers under pressure situations.

Probably the thing that makes the least sense is that Lee is a right-handed batter. If in fact the Nationals were to sign him, they would have a righty batting second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth in the lineup.

That just doesn’t work at the major league level.

He’s old. His numbers are declining. He bats from the right side. And there are other options available.

I just can’t believe that the Nationals are really interested in Derrek Lee.

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The Kansas City Royals have made it clear that they are ready to trade star pitcher Zach Greinke right now, or maybe they won’t. Or maybe they will, only later, sometime around next season’s July 31st trade deadline.

Or not. They have him under contract for two more seasons at $13.5 million per year.

That sounds a lot like the Toronto Blue Jays just hours before Roy Halladay was shipped to the Philadelphia Phillies for a truckload of prospects.

Ken Rosenthal of foxsports.com reported last week that the Royals were seeking 4-5 players in return for their Cy Young award-winning pitcher. Today, he wrote that in return for Greinke, Kansas City would want:

1. a starting major-league pitcher to take his place,
2. a speedy center-field prospect,
3. a young middle infielder and
4. a catcher who isn’t too far away from the major leagues.

Though Greinke is just 26, he has been pitching in the major leagues for seven seasons. Over his first three years, he wasn’t very good, averaging just 8-14, 4.63, 10.0/2.3/6.4. Since 2008, however, he’s been superb, going 14-12, 3.25, 8.5/2.2/8.4.

So, just like Jayson Werth, the Nationals would be paying for just three good years.

Let’s assume the Royals would accept four players. They would first need a major-league pitcher to replace Greinke. That would probably be John Lannan. Their “speedy center fielder” could be Eury Perez (Low-A) if they didn’t need a major-league ready pitcher or Roger Bernadina if they did.

They would probably be given their choice of middle infielders Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa or Stephen Lombardozzi. They would certainly accept either Wilson Ramos or Derek Norris as their catcher.

So basically, it would cost the Nationals John Lannan, Ian Desmond, Roger Bernadina and Wilson Ramos to get Zach Greinke.

Is it worth it?

Certainly, the loss of John Lannan would hurt. Over 162 games, he has averaged nine wins and a 4.10 ERA with a slash line of 9.4/3.3/4.6. He’s just 25 and would be an ideal No. 3 or 4 starter for a good Nationals team.

The Royals have a decent shortstop in Yuniesky Betancourt (.259-16-78 but with a .298 on-base percentage) but he’s 29 and is due to make $6 million in 2012. That’s just not going to happen, not in Kansas City. Desmond would be an able replacement.

But the Nationals could easily make due without Desmond. Danny Espinosa, who has good power, a great glove and strikeout problem, could move to short and Stephen Lombardozzi (.293/.387/.415 in the Arizona Fall League) could take over at second base.

Roger Bernadina could become a .290-20-80 with 20 steals kind of outfielder or he could become a total bust. The Royals might see that too and prefer Eury Perez, the 20-year-old Dominican who just completed his fourth year of professional ball. He’s averaged .312/.390/.402 along with 17 doubles, seven triples, five homers, 55 RBI and 65 stolen bases.

I’m not sure which catcher the Royals would prefer. Derek Norris will begin the season at Double-A Harrisburg and has averaged over 162 games .261/.414/.462 with 33 doubles, 25 homers and 88 RBI. He is just 21.

Ramos is just a year older and over five minor-league seasons has averaged .285/.332/.431, 23 doubles, 14 home runs and 80 RBI. His defense is much better than Norris and already has 79 at-bats in the major leagues.

Because they need their catcher sooner rather than later, they’d likely pick Ramos (although Norris will end up being a much better hitter).

So the Nationals can add a great pitcher to the rotation and give up Lannan, Perez, Desmond and Ramos to get him. The team can afford to lose Lannan, especially when Stephen Strasburg returns. They won’t miss Bernadina and no one even knows who Eury Perez is yet. And chances are that Espinosa and Lombardozzi will be the team’s long-term double play combination anyway.

And assuming that Jesus Flores is healthy, the Nationals can wait on Norris for another year, maybe two.

Finally, after five years of waiting, Washington finally has enough prospects that they can make one of those four-for-one or five-for-one deals. But should they?

In a word, no.

Over the last three seasons, Zach Greinke has averaged 13 wins to John Lannan’s nine. The fact that both pitchers play for bad teams cancels out that part of the equation. That means that Greinke is worth about five more wins per season than Lannan.

That’s one win for Ian Desmond and one for Wilson Ramos, one more for John Lannan and the last one for Eury Perez.

It’s just not worth it. There were rumors that the Nationals could have gotten Tampa’s Matt Garza (15-10, 3.91) for Desmond and Tyler Clippard. That makes more sense. That’s the kind of trade the team should jump on.

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It looks as though I might have finally found my favorite National League team. As a huge Boston Red Sox fan I find it difficult to root for another team, especially one in the American League, but as a baseball fan the more knowledge I have of the sport the more I respect other teams.

For instance, one cannot over look the Minnesota Twins. Unless you are a Chicago White Sox fan, a Detroit Tigers fan or just plain hate the Twin cities it is hard not to appreciate, like and respect that organization.

Having had an opportunity to speak with Ron Gardenhire and Justin Morneau as well as current Twins commentator Bert Blyleven, I have come to garner such respect for these guys that I now have a second favorite American League team.

But what about the National League, don’t they deserve some love?

I would like to have a team for which to pull on the other side so that I can have a stake in the NL playoff race as well. It would be ideal to hope that the Red Sox would meet my NL team in the World Series and then thoroughly embarrass them.

I tried the Colorado Rockies on for size after the 2007 World Series. I am a huge fan of Todd Helton. He is the consummate athlete and some would argue the face of the Rockies. But then I visited my best friend Bog in Denver and went to a game at Coors Field.

I realize that I may have been asking for some snide remarks by wearing my Red Sox hat to the game but in fairness it was the only baseball cap I brought on my trip and I was rooting loudly for Colorado. None of that seemed to matter however to the 80-year old usher standing at the top of the staircase between me, my friend and our seats behind the dugout.

First off, he would not let us walk down the stairs to our seats because the first inning had just begun and we were told that we would have to wait until the middle of the inning. I looked to my left and my right to see no other usher enforcing this same very strange rule. Baseball is not like an NHL game where there is a whistle every 30 seconds. This guy expected us to wait an entire half inning.

I pointed out that none of his other usher friends were making people wait to get to the seats that they paid $100 for, and his reply was something along the lines of—well you aren’t sitting in their section now are you? You’re lucky I even let you go to your seat at all with that hat on.

Now if he were joking or ribbing me in a good-natured kind of way then I would have laughed and thought it was pretty funny. But this guy was serious. He literally made us wait about 10 minutes for the middle of the first inning before we were allowed to walk down to the seats we paid for, the seats that we owned for that first half inning. But what can you do in a situation like this? He was 80 years old?

The usher was angry with me for wearing a Red Sox hat as if it were my fault that his team lost in ’07 and was swept by Boston who won the Championship on the Rockies home turf. Color me ridiculous, but that encounter knocked the Rockies out of the running for my favorite NL team.

I grew up in Northern Virginia and the closest MLB team to me at the time was the Baltimore Orioles. I was never a huge fan of them, however, I had tremendous respect for Cal Ripken Jr. and loved what he did for the game. Hell, I even went to a game with my Pops when I was a child, signed a piece of paper, took it home to my step-mom and tried to pawn it off as the Orioles manager, Earl Weaver’s, autograph. Still, the birds from Baltimore could not capture my heart.

A few years back when the Washington Nationals became a franchise based in the District of Columbia I toyed with the idea of rooting for them. They were, in fact, based 20 minutes from where I grew up.

So I decided that I was going to follow them for a little while and see if I liked and agreed with their management style and philosophy. You see there is nothing worse then pledging your allegiance and giving your heart to a team whose owner and management squander your hopes and dreams for years on end.

Yes, I am talking about you Dan Snyder. The Redskins had me at hello and you have stomped on my heart every year since you bought the team. But I am too invested, in too deep, I am the idiot who keeps coming back for more. Thank you sir may I have another.

I apologize for the above tangent, as I am a page and a half into this column and have still not yet reached the point of the piece. This offseason, this week in particular, I had seen enough. The culmination of the decisions made by the Washington Nationals staff over the past few years finally hit a boiling point with me.

The Nats acquired Jayson Werth with a seven-year deal. Washington inked Werth to the 13th largest contract in MLB history totalling $126 million ($66 million more than what the Phillies thought Werth was worth). I now have a favorite National League team that I would very much like to see lose to my Red Sox in the World Series.

The Nats have done quite a bit lately. Yes, they have been given the gift of being absolutely horrible and thus getting the first pick in the draft for a few years but what they did with those picks is what has gotten my attention.

Stephen James Strasburg could be the most phenomenal pitcher in the league. Give him a full season of throwing without injury (once he returns successfully from Tommy John surgery) and I believe you are looking at the next Tim Lincecum, except better, with shorter hair and no vested interest in voting yes on prop 19.

Couple that with the other first round pick Bryce Harper and you have had two great years of drafting. Arguably the best arm in the league in Strasburg and one of the best bats in college baseball in Harper.

Add in the Nationals current players Nyjer Morgan, Ivan Rodriguez, Josh Willingham, Ryan Zimmerman and another solid young arm coming off surgery in Jordan Zimmerman and the Nats have an amazingly solid base from which to build a playoff caliber team.

All of these draft decisions, trades and young players with potential have proven to me that Washington’s management and ownership are committed to taking this NL basement dweller to a playoff contender. But what sealed the deal, what put the cherry on top, what brought me to the precipice and pushed me over the edge was when the Nats brass snaked Jayson Werth from signing with the Boston Red Sox and locked him into a seven-year deal.

This guy has been an outfielder on my fantasy radar for the past several years. I have been trying every which way possible to acquire his bat for at least one of my fantasy teams but I’ve failed miserably every single time.

What I have yet to be able to do for the past several years, the Washington Nationals were able to do this offseason. Plus they were able to do it when going up against Theo Epstein and the Boston Red Sox, no less.

My hat is off to you Washington and now I must go buy a Nats cap to tip in your direction this upcoming season. I have found my National League team and I hope that someday soon they too will have the opportunity to be swept by the Red Sox in the World Series. 

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As the third day of baseball’s Winter Meetings come to a close, I’m going to make a couple of assumptions regarding the future of the Washington Nationals. Perhaps neither will occur, but let’s assume for a moment that they will.

First, I fully expect that the Nats will sign Adam LaRoche as the team’s first baseman, probably a two-year deal for $15 million or so.

Second, I think that Josh Willingham will remain as the team’s left fielder in spite of reports that he will be traded if the team signs a significant bat to play at first (like LaRoche).

Take a look at the Nationals probable lineup for next season, assuming LaRoche and Willingham are with the team.

The statistics are the player’s 2010 numbers based on them playing a full season. I chose to use Nyjer Morgan’s career average over 162 games because I don’t think it is possible for him to have another season as bad as last year:

CF  Nyjer Morgan: .283/.344/.360   2 HR  36 RBI  44 SB

SS  Ian Desmond: .269/.308/.392  10 HR  65 RBI  17 SB

3B  Ryan Zimmerman: .307/.388/.510  29 HR  98 RBI 4 SB

RF  Jayson Werth: .296/.388/.532  27 HR  85 RBI  13 SB

LF  Josh Willingham: .268/.389/.459  24 HR  81 RBI  8 SB

1B  Adam LaRoche: .261/.320/.468  27 HR  109 RBI  0 SB

2B  Danny Espinosa: .214/.277/.447  35 HR  87 RBI  0 SB

C    Pudge/Ramos: .267/.298/.355  7 HR  62 RBI  3 SB

A couple of caveats regarding the numbers: all eight players’ stats are based on 162 games so Zimmerman’s numbers for example reflect four additional home runs and 13 more RBI.

Secondly, Espinosa’s stats were based on a relatively small sampling, so his home run total (35) and stolen bases (0) are skewed. I expect him to hit 25 homers and steal 25 bases next year if he’s playing every day.

That can be a very productive lineup in 2011 if Nyjer Morgan returns to form, something I think he can do. And any team that can bat Adam LaRoche sixth is going to score a lot of runs.

If Willingham stays, manager Jim Riggleman will have to find a way to get Michael Morse into the lineup. He said earlier this week that he hoped to find 300 at-bats for the developing slugger. There is a way he can come close to that.

Though LaRoche hits pretty well against lefties (.264/.297/.462), Morse could play 15 or so games at first against the top lefties in the league. And with Willingham’s problems remaining healthy, Riggleman could give him regular days off throughout the season, allowing Morse another 20 games in the lineup. When you add in pinch-hitting and perhaps a few games relieving Zimmerman at third, the 28-year-old could get 200 at-bats in 2011.

If Willingham is traded—a distinct possibility—I would guess that that Morse would be the everyday left-fielder. Had he played 162 games last season, he would have batted .289-30-85. In reality, a full-time Morse would likely hit around .280-25-75, roughly the same as Josh.

How good will the Nationals be in 2011? It depends on the starting pitching. Both the offense and the bullpen seem strong enough now to give the team a chance to win every night.

Right now, the starting rotation includes John Lannan, Jason Marquis, Jordan Zimmermann, Livan Hernandez and either Yunesky Maya, Ross Detwiler or J.D. Martin. Late in the season, of course, Stephen Strasburg returns.

Add one quality arm, someone along the lines of Matt Garza, and the Nationals are at least a .500 team, maybe better. If they do the impossible and somehow sign Cliff Lee—or trade for Zach Greinke—they could come awfully close to 85 wins.

It it difficult to believe that the Nationals could be that improved in 2011, but that of course is predicated on the team signing Adam LaRoche.

And hopefully, we’ll know in just a few days.

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Deal He Got: 7 years, 18 million/year

Deal He Should Have Got: 5 years, 12 million/year

Jayson Werth is a classic late bloomer, and that’s less worrisome for a hitter than it is for a pitcher when you hear talk of nine-digit contracts. He is a five tool player, although not especially flashy in any of the five tools. Werth does everything at an above average level.

His .296 batting average in 2010 was a bit of a fluke. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .352 hints towards some luck, and he’s probably more of a .270 guy like we saw the two previous years.

The Washington Nationals are paying for the .296 (among other things), but let’s be realistic: he’s a fine hitter, but not a great one, at least in terms of making contact with the ball. That .296 went a long way to the widespread perception that Jayson Werth has superstar talent. One scout went so far as to claim Werth is a better player than Matt Holliday, which is ludicrous.

Werth’s power is very real, however, and his 0.81 ground ball to fly ball ratio is encouraging. His 87 home runs over three seasons also looks good, although there may not be a better hitting environment than Citizen’s Bank Park. In comparison, Nationals Park is 3 feet deeper down the left field line, 8 feet deeper to center, and 5 feet deeper down the right field line.

A few feet here and there do matter. A quick look at his hit chart (on MLB.com) shows that about 11 of his home runs hit at home over the years might not have left Nationals Park. This changes a lot because, while he has legitimate power to all fields, it’s probably legitimate low-20s HR power in 2011.

A 53/60 success rate in steal attempts is especially impressive, because now we can pin the “speed/power combination” label on Werth. It seems unlikely to me that Werth will accumulate much more than his previous career high in steals, which was twenty. He probably was not signed as a base stealer, so the speed is a nice bonus. It isn’t a key selling point, like it is for Carl Crawford, as Werth’s defense is decent and he possesses an above average arm with good range.

I’m a bit of a plate-discipline junkie, so Werth’s value is a bit higher in my eyes than it might have been in others’. Only eleven hitters swung at fewer pitches out of the zone in 2010, although Werth also swung at a below-average percentage of pitches in the strike zone. As a result, he runs up the strikeouts and the walks.

Werth’s discipline is both a blessing and a curse. His strikeout rate is almost in the red as it is, so hopefully it doesn’t get too much worse. That said, Jayson Werth brings enough power, discipline, and speed to the table to be rightfully ranked as one of the top ten free agents of 2010.

I like Jayson Werth quite a bit. Like Carl Crawford, he’s a well rounded hitter who would have helped any team in 2011. Certainly less flashy than Crawford, Werth is arguably more valuable, especially if he keeps the walks coming.

The Nationals have picked up a quality all around player. They may not be thrilled to employ a 38-year old Jayson Werth, but he has the talent to be very productive.

One hitch in the team’s plan is that they have now become extremely right-handed, but talks about their bright future are founded. Werth brings a veteran presence to a young ball club, and will fit in nicely.

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