Kuzul

Remember when Barry Zito signed his seven-year, $126 million contract in the winter of 2006? Remember how we all scratched our heads and said how could the San Francisco Giants commit that much money to a pitcher like Zito?

Well, it’s time to start scratching our heads again.

On Sunday, it was announced that the Washington Nationals signed OF Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126 million contract. Werth’s contract is the third largest ever given to an outfielder—only Manny Ramirez and Alfonso Soriano scored larger contracts than Werth.

I like Werth a lot. I really do. He’s been a stud for the Philadelphia Phillies for the past four years and my fantasy team for the past two.

However, this contract is ridiculous.

The overall consensus was that Werth was going to sign with the Boston Red Sox or the Detroit Tigers. The Nationals were nowhere on the radar.

But when the Nationals presumably blew everyone with some sanity off the map with their offer, Werth was DC bound.

I am not sure that anyone can argue with Werth going to the Nationals. I mean, if someone is going to offer you that much more money than anyone else, I don’t care if you are going to endure a 0-162 season, that’s where you are going.

I have no problem with the annual salary the Nationals are giving Werth. He has been a $20 million a year player for the Phillies for the past three years, so $18 million a year isn’t outlandish.

Now giving a guy who will be 32 on Opening Day for seven years, well, that’s a bunch of Tom Foolery.

Four years and $72 million would have been adequate for Werth. The Nationals gave Werth three more years, which doesn’t make sense to me.

In the final three years of the contract, the Nationals will be paying Werth $18 million a year when he is in his late 30′s. By that time, I will make a safe bet that Werth will no longer be an $18 million a year player.

If you think about it, the Nationals might not even be good until four or five years from now. By the time the Nationals get really competitive, Werth’s contract will be an albatross.

Contract aside, Werth is an overall upgrade over the recent departed Adam Dunn. Most importantly, he is a huge upgrade over Dunn on the defensive side of the ball. Defense has been the achilles heel for the Nationals over the past couple of seasons.

However, Werth doesn’t solve all of the Nationals’ problems and he is only a win or two improvement over Dunn. If this team doesn’t get some pitching, the Nationals will find themselves in a similar situation to what Soriano is in with the Chicago Cubs.

Having a player with an untradeable contract on a crappy team never ends well.

And for those of you who want to blame Scott Boras (Werth’s agent on this deal) for ruining the game by demanding these large contracts, which price out the small market teams, just remember this: Someone has to buy what he is selling.

Boras doesn’t sign contracts; there has to be some clown out there to sign the contract he is pitching.

In this case, the clown turned out to be Nationals’ GM Mike Rizzo.

You can follow The Ghost of Moonlight Graham on Twitter @ theghostofmlg

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The Washington Nationals made an early splash Sunday evening when the team announced they’d agreed on a seven-year deal worth $126 million for right fielder Jayson Werth.

The 31-year-old Werth, who helped the Phillies win the 2008 World Series, hit .296 this year in his fourth and final season with Philadelphia. He had an NL-high 46 doubles, 27 homers and 85 RBI. Werth was selected in the first round of the 1997 draft by the nearby Baltimore Orioles.

Werth’s new deal comes just days after former Nationals first baseman Adam Dunn left town for a four-year deal worth $56 million with the Chicago White Sox. Many fans were critical of the Nationals front office after they refused to dish out the cash necessary to keep Dunn in Washington.

“We took some light criticism about Adam Dunn leaving,” Nationals manager Jim Riggleman said. “People said it was the money. But it’s not about the money, as this deal shows. We gave Jayson Werth more.”

Werth’s new contract is 12th-largest among current players, which is ironic considering he has been selected to just one All-Star game in eight major league seasons. Experts claim that Werth’s stats are a direct result of a stellar surrounding lineup, something that has been a constant in Philadelphia for the last few years.

Werth’s new deal was negotiated by his agent Scott Boras, a name that is becoming more and more familiar in Washington. Boras also negotiated the contracts for both of the Nationals top-draft picks the past two seasons, pitcher Stephen Strasburg and outfielder Bryce Harper.

Allowing a player like Dunn to leave town, after being so committed to helping turn around the Nationals organization, can only leave fans scratching their heads.

Werth reportedly turned down $100 million deal with the Boston Red Sox in search of more money. So the question becomes: does he care more about the money or the championships? Even as a Nationals fan, I am clearly aware that the Red Sox are much closer to a World Series than the Nationals.

Although the contract may seem a little too large and perhaps a little too soon, we can’t hate on the guy until he takes the field at Nationals Park. Before we judge him and/or criticize the front office, we must first witness the production. Then we can determine what Jayson is really Werth.

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In their short history, the Washington Nationals have been perennial runners-up in the free agency process. The Nationals didn’t land the biggest name in Cliff Lee or Carl Crawford, but they came pretty close with the signing of former Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Jayson Werth.

The Nationals may have overpaid for Werth—not very surprising news considering his agent is Scott Boras. Washington gave the 31-year-old Werth a seven-year contract at an average of $18 million a year totaling $126 million.

While the yearly salary may be considered a reach for Werth alone, it is difficult to see Werth producing at a high level as a 38-year-old for the Nationals.

Washington may have overpaid for their new starting outfielder, but Werth also gives the Nationals a sense of legitimacy as contenders in the NL East. Washington has finished last in the division every year since the move from Montreal (six years) except for the 2007 season when they still lost 89 games.

Since becoming an everyday player three years ago, Jayson Werth has been one of the top sluggers in the National League. Werth has hit 87 home runs and driven in 251 runs over the last three seasons. One reason Werth commanded so much was the career year he had last season.

During the 2010 campaign, Werth had career bests in average (.296), runs (106), doubles (46) and slugging percentage (.532). Defensively, Werth was one of the best in the league as well with just four errors in 156 games and eight outfield assists.

Werth provides some pop in the middle of the order for the Washington Nationals, who could miss the production of Adam Dunn who departed for the White Sox. Clearly, Werth provides similar production with fewer strikeouts and far superior defense than Dunn.

The Nationals now feature a threatening lineup with Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, Josh Willingham, the speedy Nyjer Morgan and one of the better players you’ve never heard of in Ian Desmond.

The problem will likely again come down to pitching. The starting staff was one of the league’s worst last season. Livan Hernandez was the only top of the rotation starter in 2010.

John Lannan disappointed after two strong seasons to begin his career and finished with an era of 4.65. Jordan Zimmermann could be another promising young pitcher who will look to improve as a regular starter.

Are the Nationals going to be able to compete with the favorite Phillies, improved Braves and the pesky Marlins?

It’s tough to imagine because of their pitching staff, but Werth does move them in the right direction offensively and defensively.

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The “Lerner’s are cheap” mantra lasted just four days.

Jayson Werth, a late-blooming slugger who helped turn the Philadelphia Phillies into a playoff fixture, has signed a seven-year contract with the Washington Nationals that will pay him $18 million per season.

A few thoughts that are bouncing around my head:

The Nationals vastly overpaid, probably by about three years and $4 million per year. But there is no doubt that top-flight, two-way players will need an incentive to play in Washington for a couple of more years.

This is the fourteenth richest contract in the history of major league baseball.

I’m wondering how Adam Dunn is feeling right now?

I think they announced this deal today, on the eve of the Winter Meetings, to use Werth as bait for the other free agents the team is pursuing.

Matt Holiday got about the same contract last year (it was a little less) and Alfonso Soriano get about the same contract in 2007 (it was a little bit more).

His contract is the third highest of all time for outfielders.

Though Werth is a type-A free agent, the Nationals’ top pick is protected. They will lose their second-round pick.

$13 million per year is for his performance on the field and $4 million per year is for public relations.

In his three years as a starter, Werth has averaged .279/.376/.513 with 32 doubles, 32 home runs, 20 stolen bases and 91 RBI.

I have to believe that the relationship between agent Scott Boras and the Nationals has been strengthened thanks to the last two seasons of negotiations over Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper.

With two outs and runners in scoring position, Werth hit .240/.400/.425 with 125 RBi in just 339 at-bats. When his team is behind, Werth has batted .279/.358/.493 with a home run every 17 at-bats.

Managers won’t be bringing in right-handers out of the bullpen late in the game against him. Last season, Werth batted .300/.382/.556 against righties and .287/.402/.556 versus lefties (Nationals’ fans went to the bathroom when Dunn faced a lefty).

Werth averages about 50 fewer strikeouts per season than Dunn.

He is successful stealing 88 percent of the time.

He crushes first-pitch fastballs and is just as good with balls down in the zone. Has tremendous patience at the plate and can carry his team for weeks at a time.

His defense is above average but not Gold Glove.

I have little doubt that Josh Willingham will now be packaged in a trade for a quality starting pitcher with Mike Morse taking over full time in left field.

I’ll post more later. If I waited to post this story until I could write something coherently after hearing the news, I would have likely waited for quite some time.

That’s how stunned I am.

Based on the dollars spent, and the length of the contract, I have to believe that this is just the beginning of the Nationals’ moves this winter.

Wow.

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Let’s face it: The Washington Nationals has always been the dark horse in chasing big-name free agents over the years.

There was Mark Teixeira, who signed an eight-year, $180 million deal.

There is still former Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee, who is chased by the Texas Rangers and the New York Yankees. But every time they are mentioned, so are the Nats, though it doesn’t look like they’re going to sign him.

But finally, Washington has made a big move. They have a new $100 million man.

General manager Mike Rizzo announced today they have agreed to terms with veteran outfielder Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126 million deal.

Werth was on of the two best outfielders this year on the market with Carl Crawford. That’s no small statement.

The Washington Nationals are going to make be legit contenders in a couple of years. But Werth just guaranteed it in just five. If you still don’t believe it, maybe this list of players will show you:

1. Jayson Werth: five-tool player.
2. Ryan Zimmerman: great bat, arm and glove.
3. Ivan Rodriguez: mentor to young catchers, handles pitching staff well.
4. Josh Willingham: dependable 20 home runs per season.

There are many more players, especially with big potentials such as Roger Bernadina, Ian Desmond and Nyjer Morgan.

The four listed players are the ones the team is to be built around with.

Not to mention, have you heard of guys like Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper?

There’s also Jason Marquis rebounding from his injury-filled season in 2010.

All-in-all, this team has many positives, and it’s going in a good direction towards winning: in pitching and offensively.

Getting back to Werth, let’s see what he has done over the last three years. He has hit 87 home runs, and drove in 251 RBIs. Even with the good bat, he has thrown runners out with his strong accurate arm, and has robbed hits with his great glove. Let’s just also add he has stolen 53 bases during that time.

He is just a great player overall at the age of 31. It’s not like he is in his mid-30s where you don’t know what you are going to get.

Werth will certainly fill the hole left by slugger Adam Dunn who signed with the Chicago White Sox just a couple of days ago.

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Bryce Harper, the first-round draft pick of the Washington Nationals, added an Arizona Fall League championship to his already impressive resume. 

Since being praised as quite possibly the future of the game of baseball, Harper has been doing and saying all the right things on his way to becoming the face of a Washington Nationals club in dire need of some good fortune.

Harper, who followed Stephen Strasburg as another Nationals number one draft pick, is slowly but surely putting all the pieces together while putting in his time with the Nationals instructional league team and the AFL Scottsdale Scorpions. 

Harper compiled a .319 average and led the Nationals Instructional league team in RBI.  According to Fantasy Windup, the Nationals did not want Harper sitting around till spring training and decided the Arizona Fall League was the ideal situation.  You can say they made the right choice. 

Obviously Harper, who just turned 18, has a long way to go.   

His swing has been called lengthy/violent and his defensive skills are continuing to evolve after moving from catching to the outfield. 

This had to have been a shock to the “phenom,” who was featured on the cover of Sports Illustrated at the age of 16. 

Despite hitting 500 foot homeruns in batting practice, lighting up the radar gun at 96 mph, and literally becoming a legend in his home state of Nevada, Harper has another reality check—since becoming a professional he’s batting seventh in the Scorpions line-up. 

Batting seventh, in a line-up filled with prospects all gifted in their own way, did not phase Harper in the least. 

In 35 at-bats Harper batted .343 (12 for 35), with half of his hits earning extra bases.  A .410 OBP and a .629 SLG proves the kid has the talent, but can he sustain those lofty numbers and expectations for an entire season?

As far as I can tell, the Nationals do not appear to rushing Harper along, and if in 2011 he can continue to develop, a stint in Double-A Harrisburg isn’t so much a dream but a reality.

Dare I say MLB starter by 19?  Maybe!

Devon is the founder of The GM’s Perspective

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For the last couple of days, I have been doing a lot of writing about the loss of Adam Dunn and how that affects the Washington Nationals.

I’ve been comparing Dunn’s offensive capabilities against two of his most likely replacements, Carlos Pena and Adam LaRoche, and have come to the conclusion that even those two might be more than the Nationals need in 2011.

The Nationals are going to be a better team next season, but not so much better that they are going to be in any pennant chase, even on the periphery. So why spend $8 or $10 million on a replacement when that player will be little more than a public relations move for the fans?

There is no make-or-break player available on the free-agent market or available for trade this off season, so why not lay the foundation for bigger moves next year? Also, Stephen Strasburg won’t be back until late in 2011 and his return will be like adding a type-A free agent.

So 2012 is the future of the Washington Nationals.

Following the 2011 season, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez (now with Boston) and Albert Pujols will be free agents. Certainly, other teams will be in pursuit as well, but the Nationals would certainly have the resources to sign any one of them.

If the Nationals show improvement next season, one or more might be willing to listen.

Further, first base prospects Chris Marrero (.294-18-82) and Tyler Moore (.269-31-111) are still too young to be able to project if and when they will be able to play first for the Nationals any time soon.

So if the Nationals aren’t interested in moving either Josh Willingham or Mike Morse to first (and that seems to be the case), they need a cheap, capable first baseman who has shown in the past he can be counted on.

Enter Jorge Cantu.

Cantu, 29, has spent seven years in the major leagues, splitting time between Tampa Bay and Florida (before being traded to Texas late last season). Over a 162-game season, he has averaged .274-21-94 with 41 doubles and a .320 on-base percentage.

Offensively, he’s similar to Nick Johnson but without the walks (Johnson has averaged .270-20-80 over 162 games played).

He had an off year last season due mostly to his difficulty in learning the pitchers in the American League but his statistics with the Marlins, expanded to 162 games, were just fine. He was on track to hit .262-26-90 in a full season with Florida but his one home run in 98 at-bats with Texas derailed his season.

But as we’ve learned with Adam Dunn, power numbers don’t tell the whole story. Let’s compare Cantu’s lifetime clutch hitting stats with those of Dunn to see just how much he really will be missed.

First, let’s take a look at just their stats while playing first base. Both players have played extensively at other positions so this is how the two players’ stats would look based only time at first and averaged into a 162-game season (easier for comparison purposes)

Jorge Cantu: .285-28-92, .340 OBP and .459 slugging

Adam Dunn: .248-39-102, .376 OBP and .522 slugging

Over 162 games, and based only on offensive production while at first, the differences between the two players are not as much as you would think.

Now lets look at the clutch statistics:

Two out, runners in scoring position:

Cantu: .280/.358/.453

Dunn: .214/.429/.443

Now that’s ugly for Adam, but it gets even worse. His batting average for balls in play (strikeouts don’t effect batting average) is just .191 while Cantu’s is a robust .307.

Late in the game with the score close:

Cantu: .274/.320/.413

Dunn: .233/.382/.476

While Dunn’s batting average for balls in play is better at .295, it still pales when compared to Cantu’s .324.

When the game is tied:

Cantu: .279/.312/.464

Dunn: .247/.386/.539

Dunn’s batting average for balls in play here is just .240, 56 points below Cantu’s .296.

When team is behind:

Cantu: .274/.323/.444

Dunn: .253/.364/.511

Dunn’s .306 average when he puts the ball in play in this category is actually higher than Cantu’s .301.

So, just like Adam LaRoche and Carlos Pena, while Jorge Cantu’s offensive numbers at first glance don’t look as impressive as Dunn’s, he is a far better clutch hitter in the later innings and with the game on the line. So while we all loved Adam, he couldn’t field well and didn’t hit very well when we needed him most.

Cantu was traded by the Marlins this season in part because of the 16 errors he committed but he was playing third base in 2010. At first, he plays acceptable defense and certainly much better than Dunn.

As much as in pains me to say, Adam Dunn won’t be missed by the Washington Nationals in 2011. Either Jorge Cantu or Adam LaRoche can provide the team with more hits and runs when they are needed most, late in the game and with runners on base.

Either Cantu or LaRoche would be a good one-year stop-gap until someone better comes along. 

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Baseball’s Winter Meetings begin next week and by Thursday, the future of the Washington Nationals should be clear.

Can General Manager Mike Rizzo find a top-of-the-rotation starter to replace the injured Stephen Strasburg, and will he replace Adam Dunn with someone equally capable at first?

With Adam Dunn’s contract now off the books, the Nationals could easily add $30 to 40 million in payroll and still be one of the more underfunded teams in the Senior Circuit. And they have been trying.

The Rockies’ Jorge de la Rosa was coveted by many teams this off-season, the Nationals included. But before the team could come close to making a firm offer, he was re-signed by Colorado for two years and $22 million.

Unless something changes in the next month or so, the Nationals will head into spring training with a stable of starters that can give the team at least a chance to win every time they take the mound.

After a rough start and a trip to Double-A Harrisburg, John Lannan rebounded and had a solid second half, going 7-4, 3.42 with a .271/.312/.416 slash line. He is just 25 and continues to improve.

Jordan Zimmermann has come all the way back from Tommy John surgery and is expected to have a breakout year in 2011. Zimmermann, just 24, was shaky in his first game back against the Cardinals but pitched well for the rest of the season. He started six games and went 1-2 with a 4.00 ERA. Opponents batted just .233/.298/.476 against him while striking out eight per nine innings.

Jason Marquis’ bad start in 2010 led to elbow surgery and a stint on the injured reserve. In his first five starts, he was horrible, going 0-5, 14.33, .405/.500/.703. But from August 20 on, Marquis was solid, crafting a 2-4 record but with a 3.61 ERA and a .275/.346/.383 slash line. He’s healthy, still just 31, and should match his average over the last six seasons of 13-11, 4.49 in 2011.

Livan Hernandez returned from the dead last season and was rewarded with a raise and a major league contract for 2011, something he did not have at the start of spring training last year.

After spinning a 5.28 ERA over the previous four seasons, Livan rebounded in 2010, going 10-12 with a fine 3.66 ERA, 26th-best in the National League (only 30 pitchers with qualifying innings had an earned run average below 4.00).

That leaves one spot open in the rotation with Ross Detwiler (1-3, 4.25), J.D. Martin (1-5, 4.13) and Yunesky Maya (0-3, 5.88) as the most likely candidates to fill it.

Before getting crushed in his last game of the season, Detwiler pitched wonderfully, going 1-2, 2.52, .276/.360/.357 in seven starts. Maya looked both rusty and nervous in his three September starts after his call-up but has been dominant in the Dominican Winter League. In five starts, Maya is 3-1, 0.69, allowing a .163 batting average-against and less than one runner per inning.

And before an injury sidelined him for the rest of the season, Martin gave his team a chance to win every time he took to the mound.

Not counting his last start—when the elbow problems became acutely apparent—Martin was solid for the Nationals. In seven starts, he went 1-4 but with a 3.35 ERA and a .287/.305/.463 opponent’s slash line.

Martin is healthy and ready to pitch when spring training opens in two months. But the team continues to seek out other options for the rotation, and Martin seems to be an afterthought.

De la Rosa is two years older than Martin, and though he has pitched five more seasons in the major leagues, de la Rosa’s numbers just aren’t all that good. Sure, he’s a strikeout pitcher and can strikeout a batter with runners on base where Martin would have to allow contact to get the out, increasing the chance for runs to score.

But let’s compare the career stats of Martin and de la Rosa. Yes, I understand that the Rockies’ pitcher has a larger body of work but generally, we can get a feel for the type of pitchers they are.

ERA

De la Rosa: 5.02

Martin: 4.32

Hits per nine-innings allowed

De la Rosa: 9.2

Martin: 10.2

Walks per nine-innings allowed

De la Rosa: 4.6

Martin: 2.5

Strikeouts per nine-innings allowed

De la Rosa: 8.0

Martin: 4.9

Base runners per nine-innings allowed

De la Rosa: 1.52

Martin: 1.40

Batting average-against

De la Rosa: .266

Martin: .282

On-base average allowed

De la Rosa: .354

Martin: .334

Slugging average-allowed

De la Rosa: 434

Martin: .492

Percentage of balls thrown for strikes

De la Rosa: 60-percent

Martin: 63-percent

Martin gives up more hits but de la Rosa gives up many more walks. In the end, de la Rosa allows more base runners every inning, giving the opposing team more chances to score.

Of the nine categories, Martin leads in five and de la Rosa in four.

Since joining the Rockies, de la Rosa has averaged—assuming a 162 game season—15 wins and a 4.49 ERA with 1.38 base runners per inning. And the Coors Park curse isn’t in play here; he pitches better at home in Denver than on the road.

Again, based on being a starter for the entire 162 games, Martin has averaged nine wins and a 4.32 ERA with 1.39 base runners per inning.

So Martin gives up fewer runners, has a lower earned run average, is two years younger, and will make under $1 million next year.

De la Rosa has a great fastball, can embarrass hitters with his stuff, but walks more than twice as many batters as Martin.

And he’ll make $11 million in 2011.

I would advise the Nationals—yeah, they’ll listen, right—to go with the four certain starters listed above and give Martin the opportunity to win that fifth spot in the rotation along with Maya and Detwiler.

That $11 million that the Nationals didn’t spend on de la Rosa, along with the $12 million they didn’t spend on Adam Dunn, could buy two very high quality hitters, a first baseman like Adam LaRoche and an outfielder like Jason Werth or Carl Crawford.

With that kind of offense, the rotation will be good enough for the team to win more games than they lose in 2011.

And, oh yeah, they get back that kid with the 100 mph fastball sometime in August. What was his name again?

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As the gloaming of the post Adam Dunn era begins to envelop the city that once embraced him, I am somewhat struck at the gloom and doom that is being predicted for both the team and the fans of the Washington Nationals.

Mark Zuckerman adroitly put those fears into words this morning when he wrote, “Plenty of fans have been insisting they wouldn’t renew their season tickets if the Nats didn’t re-sign Dunn. How many will actually stick to their word and follow through? We’ll see, though with no Dunn and no Stephen Strasburg for the majority of 2011, there sure doesn’t figure to be a lot of buzz on South Capitol Street.

And there doesn’t figure to be a ton of optimism inside the home clubhouse among players who absolutely adored Dunn, but more importantly want to feel like this organization is moving closer to realizing actual success.” 

Of course, Mark isn’t saying that fans are going to walk away, never to return. And he isn’t suggesting that current players have given up hope for any real future for the team.

He is simply reporting what he’s seeing.

Now let me report what I have seen.

After the Washington Senators left town, I became an Atlanta Braves fan (though for the life of me I don’t understand why). People forget that they were even worse than the Senators, and they were worse for a much longer period of time.

For 16 seasons—from 1975 through 1990—the Braves had a winning season exactly twice, in 1982 and 1983. In 1975, attendance was second-worst in the National League and in 1990 they were dead last when only 980,000 fans came to Atlanta’s Fulton County Stadium.

The only constant during that period was star slugger Dale Murphy, who averaged .267-32-96 for the moribund Braves. But in 1990, Murphy was a couple of years older than Dunn is now, and the Braves traded him to their division rival Philadelphia Phillies.

Forlorn fans vowed never to watch a game again. They had enough of losing and now their only real slugger was gone. Reporters feared that without Murphy—the face of the franchise—the team would stop teetering near baseball’s abyss and fall into it.

A year later, the Atlanta Braves won 94 games and went to the World Series. Without Dale Murphy, and after two decades of losing, 2.1 million fans did the tomahawk chop at Fulton County Stadium, fourth best in the league.

In 1992, the Braves returned to the World Series and drew more than three million fans, besting the rest of the league.

The rest, as they say, is history.

I lived in Seattle in the early 1980’s and the Mariners were a bad team with cheap ownership playing in the worst park I have ever seen.

From 1977 through 1995, covering 19 seasons, the Seattle Mariners had a winning season exactly twice. In 1979, they were dead last in attendance. In 1995, they drew barely a million to the Kingdome, ninth best in the league.

For years, the Mariners’ amateur draft policy was one of signability. Tremendous talent was left on the board in favor of players willing to take a smaller check. In 1979, the Mariners had the No. 1 pick in the draft and chose Al Chambers, a player that several teams had not even scouted and a couple had never heard of.

This led to a severe case of baseball apathy in Seattle. With so many outdoor activities to enjoy in the region, no one wanted to spend three hours in a concrete cavern watching a bad team play bad baseball.

Reporters worried out loud that good players would never want to come to Seattle. In 1982, the Mariners traded top reliever Bill Caudill to the Yankees for prize prospect Gene Nelson, who had dominated the Florida State League the previous year, winning 20 games with an ERA under 2.00. Nelson whined and complained about the trade, saying that he didn’t want to play baseball in Seattle.

But in 1996, a few of their prospects matured and the Mariners became a winner. They drew 2.7 million, fourth best in the American League. In 1997, they won 90 games for the first time and drew more than three million fans.

And the rest, as they say, is history.

Braves’ fans suffered for 16 years before they were able to support a winner and support they did. Mariners’ fans had to wait even longer before winning baseball came to Seattle, but once it did, they came out to the Kingdome in droves.

Currently, Washington Nationals’ fans have had to endure five losing seasons. To match the Mariners’ mark for futility, Washington would have to wait until the 2026 season before playoff baseball would come to Nationals Park.

That would be in Ryan Zimmerman’s 20th season.

Since the days of the St. Louis Browns and Philadelphia Athletics, fans swear that they’ll stop supporting their losing team, and yet tickets become impossible to find when their team starts to win.

In 2003, the Detroit Tigers won just 43 games and drew just 1.3 million fans. Three seasons later, they more than doubled their wins and doubled their attendance as well.

And in 1968, the Washington Senators won 65 games and finished dead last in American League attendance, drawing just 546,000 fans. A year later, they won 21 more games and almost doubled their attendance.

We say things when we are frustrated and Nationals fans are no exception. When things don’t go right, we swear we’ll never watch another game. And when a marquee player like Adam Dunn isn’t re-signed, we really really won’t ever watch another game.

Players like Ryan Zimmerman grumble about the team’s ability to field a winner and offer up veiled threats about their long-term desire to remain with the team.

Then a couple of free agent signings occur, along with a trade or two. A few of the kids suddenly mature, and the Nationals will win 90 games and make the playoffs.

Suddenly, 37,000 fans will pack the park every night and swear they supported the team even when they were losers. Ryan Zimmerman will tell reporters how great it is to have a first baseman who saves him six or seven errors every year.

It’s going to happen. It always has. It always will. The only question is when.

When it happens, these five years of futility will be quickly forgotten, just as it happened in Atlanta, and just as it happened in Seattle.

That’s how baseball works.

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Well, it finally happened. Adam Dunn has gone the way of Al Capone, making his living on the South side of Chicago.

And at $14 million per year for four years, he’s making Capone-type money too.

Now, let’s be objective for just a moment. This is like that time our favorite girlfriend jilted us, and we hurt and were angry, but didn’t see at the time that it was the best thing that could have happened.

Adam Dunn is one of the worst-fielding first basemen in the league. He puts up impressive numbers, but not when the game is on the line. He batted just .169 with runners in scoring position and two outs.

With the bases loaded, he was even worse, batting just .125. Dunn hit .146 in the 9th inning. A full 20-percent of his at-bats went to 0-2 and he ended up batting .139/.162/269 with three home runs and six RBI in those 108 at-bats.

His strikeouts went up last season while his on-base percentage went down.

He’ll be 36 years old in the final year of the contract.

And Dunn will earn $14 million a year?

I remember when Alfonso Soriano left Washington after the 2006 season when he hit .277-46-95 with 41 steals. He signed an eight-year, $136 million contract with the Chicago Cubs. Nationals fans were angered because of the perceived cheapness of ownership.

Soriano was 30 and supposedly in the prime of his career.

Over the four seasons he has played with the Cubbies, Soriano has aged four years, earned $72 million and averaged .271-26-70 while continuing to play poor defense. The Nationals received two top picks in the 2007 amateur draft, one of whom turned out to be Jordan Zimmerman.

Soriano’s contract—and play—has hampered the Cubs the past few seasons. They would love nothing more than finding some team to take him off of their hands. But alas, no one is stupid enough.

Earlier today, Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman said that the loss of Dunn was “a shame” because he wanted to remain in Washington. Well, he also wanted to stay in the National League. And he didn’t want to be a designated hitter at this stage of his career.

Or so he said. In other words, it was all about money.

So the Nationals saved $14 million by not signing Adam Dunn. Looking at 2009’s free agency signings, the Nationals could have added these three players for a little less than the total of Dunn’s yearly contract:

CF Marlon Byrd: .293-12-66

1B Adam LaRoche: .261-25-100

2B Kelly Johnson: .271-26-71

For $13.2 million, these three players would have given the Nationals a combined .277 batting average, 63 home runs and 237 RBI. All three are solid defenders and better than the players they would have replaced.

At a certain talent level, baseball players begin to earn more than they are worth. Adam Dunn is one of those players. Shared among those three players, $14 million would have given the Nationals 25 more home runs and 135 more RBI than Adam Dunn alone.

Sure, Dunn was a great team player and great in the clubhouse. But he couldn’t field, didn’t hit well in the clutch and played just one position.

The Nationals could have spent $14 million for one player, or they could spend the same amount for three above-average major league players.

To me, it’s a no-brainer. Put Marlon Byrd, Kelly Johnson and Adam LaRoche on the 2010 team, take away Adam Dunn, and the Nationals win 75-77 games, maybe more.

All of this, of course, presupposes that the Nationals will not sit on that saved cash and will instead sign more free agents or use it to pay players they may trade for.

Subjectively, the Nationals and their fans are smarting a bit tonight. But objectively, not signing Adam Dunn could be the turning point for this once moribund franchise.

And remember, two other teams walked away from Adam Dunn before today. I think that says far more about the player than the team he left.

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