Kuzul

One month before pitchers and catchers report, we’ve still got several things to settle…

1. What’s Up with Cespedes?

While Justin Upton has surfaced, it seems Yoenis Cespedes is stuck somewhere on Mars with Matt Damon. Golfing, maybe.

What gives?

Five months ago, Cespedes was emerging as a last-minute National League MVP candidate. He joined the New York Mets at the trade deadline and immediately rocket-launched them toward the World Series.

Today, Cespedes is more invisible than Punxsutawney Phil.

Will he emerge this week? Next week? By, ahem, Groundhog Day (Feb. 2 for all you non-believers)?

The icing of Cespedes is freeze-drying into perhaps the winter’s biggest story. While Upton found a soft landing in Detroit on a six-year, $132 million deal, the man who hit a combined 35 homers with 105 RBI and a .328 on-base percentage in Detroit and New York last summer continues to scan Craigslist.

For one thing, Cespedes last summer landed at the wrong place at the wrong time. He probably could have parlayed his second-half World Series charge into untold riches in nearly any other market. Popular demand would have pressured the club to keep him. But in New York, where Mets ownership has been off balance since the Bernard Madoff Ponzi scheme, the Mets continue to toss nickels around like one of George Halas’ (Mike Ditka’s?) manhole covers.

“The Mets are a debacle right now,” one agent told Bleacher Report. “It’s a shame that family still owns the team.”

The Mets telegraphed at season’s end the fact that they probably wouldn’t be players for Cespedes on a long-term deal, so their lack of engagement this winter is not surprising. Most projections going into this winter pegged Cespedes for roughly a six-year deal around $140 million, which would be just a bit more than Upton got from Detroit this week.

But other than a sudden interest by Baltimore last week, there hasn’t been much noise around Cespedes. And the Orioles’ interest in hindsight appeared to be simply a maneuver to roust slugger Chris Davis, who agreed with the Orioles on a seven-year, $161 million deal over the weekend.

One major league executive believes clubs like Cespedes more on a short-term deal than on a multiyear contract because of concern with how he will produce long-term.

The fact that Cespedes has played for four teams in the past four years also adds intrigue.

“The pattern has been real good initially, then some form of backing up as it goes along,” an American League executive told Bleacher Report.

“When this guy is engaged, he’s a terrific player. When he is not, he lacks the effort on defense and the at-bats aren’t as good. He has been streaky, which is not abnormal for power hitters, but the at-bats weren’t as good the longer he was somewhere.”

After Cespedes hit .287/.337/.604 with 17 homers and 44 RBI in just 57 games with the Mets last summer to lead them to the NL East title, his autumn turned weird. He became embroiled in a mini-controversy on the day of Game 4 of the NL Championship Series when, after he left the game with a sore left shoulder, it was revealed that he was seen playing golf in Chicago the morning of the game.

Then he left Game 5 of the World Series in severe pain after fouling a ball off his left knee.

As for the golf, it turned out that it was business as usual for Cespedes. He’s become hooked on the game, playing often during the season, to the point where Mets hitting coach Kevin Long last summer would ask Cespedes when he arrived at the park whether he played golf that day. And if he had, Long smiled.

“If he played golf, most of the time he hits a home run,” Long told the Wall Street Journal.

But the autumn issues may have left a lasting memory that carried into winter negotiations as well.

“Obviously, how things went in the playoffs didn’t help,” the AL executive said. “Taking himself out of the clincher with the Cubs early in the game, then [being] seen in the dugout with goggles around his neck wasn’t a good look.”

Recent industry speculation included the Tigers, but they opted for Upton. The Orioles are out after signing Davis.

The Los Angeles Angels clearly need a left fielder. Though owner Arte Moreno has steadfastly maintained he prefers to remain under the luxury-tax threshold of $189 million, if Cespedes is to get a monster contract, the Halos are one of the few organizations left that could afford it. On the other hand, Albert Pujols already is weighing down the franchise with a long-term deal, and they just got out from under another bad contract in Josh Hamilton, so there could be some aversion to romancing Cespedes long-term.

The St. Louis Cardinals, after losing Jason Heyward, have a need. So do the Houston Astros. And Cespedes would bolster a Chicago White Sox lineup big-time.

The Washington Nationals, who struck late for ace Max Scherzer last January, also are thought to be considering a similar late-winter strike this year for Cespedes.

“There are a lot of yellow flags around him,” the executive said. “Not the dark red ones, but caution flags.

“I don’t think he is a star. He’s a very good major-league talent. But he disappears too often.”

He has absolutely disappeared this winter.

When he will re-emerge has become the most interesting question of all.

2. Mike Ilitch Does It Again

Justin Upton can be an impact bat in the middle of the order, and if Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez and Miguel Cabrera can stay healthy, the Tigers have a chance to recapture the division title from Kansas City in an AL Central that gets more intriguing each week.

Whether Upton does or doesn’t work out, though, say this: Detroit’s owner Mike Ilitch is the kind of owner every fan has to wish his or her team had. Year after year, Ilitch has laid out millions in pursuit of the one goal that continues to drive him, bringing a World Series title to Detroit for the first time since 1984.

From Pudge Rodriguez to Miguel Cabrera to Justin Verlander to Prince Fielder to Jordan Zimmermann (and beyond), Ilitch has thrown money at one star after another. In that regard, he’s reminiscent of the late Yankees owner George Steinbrenner, who poured every ounce of energy he had, year after year, into attempting to bring New York a Yankees World Series title.

While teams in larger markets continue to do calisthenics to avoid going over the $189 million luxury-tax threshold (the Yankees, ironically, and the Angels, to name two), Ilitch thinks nothing of it.

3. Of Tanks and No Arms Race

As we edge closer to the glorious sunshine and pitchers and catchers reporting to camps in Arizona and Florida, some serious questions are on the horizon in the National League.

Mainly, spring training, that time of hope and optimism, isn’t going to bring what it once brought to several National League clubs. And how damaging might that be to the integrity of the game?

Friend Jayson Stark over at ESPN.com wrote a riveting piece on the subject last week, noting that at least four teams (Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves) and possibly as many as six (Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres) are shifting into, basically, non-compete mode while rebuilding.

It was bad enough when the Houston Astros stripped things down to the studs and foundation a few years ago, losing at least 106 games in each of three consecutive seasons (2011-13).

The Cubs caused some grumbling as well in the early years of the Theo Epstein regime, finishing fifth in the NL Central for five consecutive seasons.

Now, with both the Cubs and Astros roaring back in 2015 and boasting some of the game’s best young talent, enough other clubs appear to be following suit that baseball might wind up with an embarrassing situation sooner rather than later.

“I think it’s a problem for the sport,” an executive for an American League contender told Stark, speaking of the NL. “I think the whole system is screwed up, because I think it actually incentivizes not winning. And that’s a big issue going forward.”

At the very least, it is an issue baseball must closely watch. As things stand now, it’s good to be a member of the NL Central and NL East—because only three of the five clubs in each of those divisions really are trying to compete in 2016.

In the NL East, you’ve got the Mets, Marlins and Nationals on one side, while the Braves and Phillies are stripping things down.

In the NL Central, you’ve got the Cardinals, Cubs and Pirates with chances to win, while the Brewers and Reds will resemble Triple-A outfits.

Given that clubs face each other 19 times because of the unbalanced schedule, that’s a lot of extra wins the front three clubs in each of those divisions will pick up. Enough, probably, to guarantee that the two NL wild-card teams likely will come from the East and the Central, not the NL West.

Commissioner Rob Manfred told Stark that rebuilding is just part of the cyclical nature of the game.

“Obviously, you don’t want to have too many teams in a rebuilding cycle at one time in one league, and I accept that,” Manfred said. “But the fact of the matter is, when you have 30 teams, it’s not unusual that you have five or six in a rebuilding cycle. I think if you look back historically, that would not be a number that’s out of line.”

That the Astros and Cubs had so much success with their dramatic rebuilds is to each of their credits, of course.

It just becomes a problem if the rebuilding highways become gridlocked with copycats.

4. Where Have You Gone, Mariano Rivera?

Yankees GM Brian Cashman says newly acquired flamethrower Aroldis Chapman will head into spring training as the team’s closer, because that’s where he adds “max value.”

However they divvy up the work, there’s no question the Yankees should be awesome in the late innings with Chapman, Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller aboard.

There’s also no question that Mariano Rivera is becoming smaller and smaller in that rear-view mirror. As statistics whiz Bill Chuck points out, Chapman could give the Yankees their fifth different saves leader in the past five seasons in 2016: Rafael Soriano (42) in 2012 (the year Rivera missed most of the season with a knee injury), Rivera (44) in 2013, David Robertson (39) in 2014 and Andrew Miller (36) in 2015.

5. The World Champs Get Better

Make no mistake: Ian Kennedy is not David Price or Zack Greinke. It’s not like the Kansas City Royals signed a guy who will become a favorite to win a Cy Young Award.

But in agreeing to terms with Kennedy on a five-year, $70 million deal, the Royals unquestionably took a step in the right direction after losing Johnny Cueto to free agency.

Kennedy is coming off a down season in San Diego but should be able to give Kansas City exactly what James Shields did a couple of years ago: a summer of 200 innings and a solid veteran rotation presence.

He surrendered a career-high 31 homers last season, which is saying something given that he pitched some of his early years in hitter-friendly Arizona. But from that perspective, Kansas City is a good landing spot: Kauffman Stadium was the most difficult park in the American League to homer in last summer, surrendering an average of 1.60 homers per game.

It’s also hard not to look at Kennedy’s splits last year and give him the benefit of the doubt that an Opening Day hamstring pull threw him off balance during the first half of 2015. Before the All-Star break, he went 4-9 with a 4.91 ERA and 20 homers allowed in 84.1 innings pitched in 16 starts. After the break, he went 5-6 with a 3.64 ERA and 11 homers allowed in 84 innings pitched.

6. Free-Agent Rankings

Here’s my weekly take as agents bluster, suitors cluster and bean counters muster the courage to write those checks as the winter (gulp) deepens…

1. Yoenis Cespedes: A guy needs to know where to schedule his tee times this summer.

2. Dexter Fowler: C’mon, Joe Maddon will even write a letter of recommendation.

3. Howie Kendrick: The last second baseman the Dodgers jettisoned went on to win the NL batting title. But Kendrick is no Dee Gordon.

4. Yovani Gallardo: The leftover bin of starting pitchers remains pretty well stocked.

5. Doug Fister: One year ago, he was slated to be part of one of the greatest rotations in recent memory. Cough, cough.

7. Pete Rose in the Hall

Yes, the news bulletin you saw Tuesday is true: Pete Rose is going to the Hall of Fame.

The Cincinnati Reds Hall of Fame.

Not only that, the club will retire his No. 14 during the Reds’ Hall of Fame Induction Weekend, June 24-26.

Good for them, and good for MLB for allowing this to happen.

While it is true that Rose is banned from the Baseball Hall of Fame for being on the game’s suspended list, individual club Halls of Fame are a different, more localized version. They don’t necessarily have to play by the same rules as they do in Cooperstown.

Reds owner Bob Castellini said in a statement Tuesday that this will be “a defining moment in the 147-year history of this storied franchise. He is one of the greatest players to ever wear a Reds uniform and it will be an unforgettable experience watching him be honored as such.”

Incidentally, word of the honor did reach Cooperstown. And not everyone there is opposed to this, or even greater honors, for Rose:

8. The Mo-Man Reappears, Long Live the Mo-Man!

There is only one Mo-Man, the long-retired Mike Morgan, who pitched for 12 teams (then a record) between 1978 and 2002.

The fourth overall pick by Oakland in the 1978 draft, he went straight to the majors, never looked back and pretty much had a rubber arm the entire way through. I came across him in Minnesota when he was playing for the Twins and I was covering them. He had a very unique way of viewing the world and of speaking.

What I most remember is when he had a poor start. He’d meet the media afterward, shrug and simply say, “Bob Seger, man.” That was his code for one of Seger’s most well-known songs: “Turn the Page.” Yep, forget about a bad start, turn the page and get ’em next time.

There were dozens more just like that.

Now 56, Morgan has been gone for a while: When there was no interest in him following the 2002 season, he went home to Utah, hurt (not physically—his feelings were hurt) and went into a sort of self-exile.

He reappeared at the Diamondbacks’ fantasy camp last week.

“I can still throw seven days a week,” he told MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert. “I can still throw the hammer [curveball]. It’s not 12-to-6 anymore, it’s 12-to-3. Four-seamers, two-seamers, sliders.

“I still get guys asking me to throw the hammer so they can see it out of my hand. And I always tell them, ‘Just tell me where to meet you and I’ll come throw to you.'”

9. Farewell, Monte Irvin

One of the first African-Americans to play in the majors and a mentor to the great Willie Mays, Monte Irvin passed away last week in Houston at the age of 96. A Hall of Famer as both a player and a person, Irvin spent three years in the Army during World War II and, as Commissioner Rob Manfred said last week, “was a true leader during a transformational era for our game.”

And, he said this, and amen, amen, amen:

9a. Rock ‘n’ Roll Lyric of the Week

We’re barely halfway through January and already 2016 has been painful. Last week we lost David Bowie, this week Glenn Frey. Though he’s a little more known, you might say, for his great hits like “Tequila Sunrise” and “Peaceful Easy Feeling,” there was a time, believe it or not, when Frey wanted to become a baseball broadcaster. Not only does he do so for a day here with Vin Scully in 1985, he gives a tremendous home run call:

 You left us way too soon, Glenn, but thanks for the words and music.

“City girls seem to find out early

“How to open doors with just a smile”

— Eagles, “Lyin’ Eyes”

Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Scott on Twitter and talk baseball.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Another week. Another round of questions about Yoenis Cespedes, Chris Davis and Justin Upton—baseball’s unfortunate free-agent trio.

As Week 10 of the 2015-16 MLB offseason draws to a close, the future remains murky for those prime-time mashers who are still hanging out in a winter purgatory. The good news for one of those guys (and the bad news for another) is that there’s a new five-year offer to report.

There’s also room in the conversation for talk about yet another impact outfielder, whose name just keeps popping up in the trade rumor mill. Plus, with arbitration hearing looming on the horizon, some All-Stars, Cy Youngs and even an MVP are set to cash in.

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What’s scarier than Bryce Harper? How about Bryce Harper stacked on top of Yoenis Cespedes?

Not literally, of course, although that would indeed be scary. As a middle-of-the-lineup duo for the Washington Nationals or anyone else, however, it’s tough to imagine a more fearsome twosome.

As of January 12, Cespedes still doesn’t have a job. Someone is going to pay him to play baseball next season, but it’s unclear who that will be.

That’s been the nature of this winter’s hitters market, which has developed more slowly than an unshaken Polaroid. In addition to Cespedes, five-tool 28-year-old Justin Upton and reigning MLB home run leader Chris Davis, among others, sat unsigned entering Tuesday.

As for the Nats/Cespedes connection, it’s mostly speculative. On Dec. 31, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman posited Washington as a possible landing spot for the Cuban slugger, but he quoted a team-connected source as saying, “Probably not, at least not at the moment.”

The Nationals have since acquired center fielder Ben Revere from the Toronto Blue Jays for reliever Drew Storen. With Harper ensconced in right field, veteran Jayson Werth in left and youngster Michael Taylor also in the mix, it might seem like there’s no room for Cespedes.

Werth, though, is coming off an injury-marred campaign that saw him hit just .221 with a .685 OPS in 88 games. Taylor is a talented but unproven commodity. And Revere, while a nice ancillary addition, is several notches below elite.

Cespedes, meanwhile, would immediately and measurably move the Nats’ offensive needle northward. And, again, pairing him with Harper would create a duo that would cause opposing pitchers to wake in a cold sweat, mumbling about fastballs deposited into the stratosphere.

Here’s a number: 16.2. That’s what you get when you combine Harper’s MLB-leading 9.5 WAR and Cespedes’ No. 7-ranked 6.7 tally, per FanGraphs.

If you don’t love WAR, you can add up Harper’s 42 home runs and Cespedes’ 35. Or Harper’s 99 RBI and Cespedes’ 105. Or—well, you get the idea. These are two of the premier mashers in the game, no matter which measure you choose. 

Cespedes makes his presence felt in the field as well. He has a howitzer arm and was the best defensive left fielder in baseball last season. 

“He’s got all the tools, that’s for sure,” said Michael Cuddyer of his then-New York Mets teammate last August, per John Harper of the New York Daily News. “He’s like Home Depot.”

Cespedes arrived in New York at the trade deadline and proceeded to go on an otherworldly tear, propelling the Mets to their first postseason appearance since 2006.

Now, after signing former Met Daniel Murphy, the Nationals could twist the knife in the defending National League champs by nabbing Cespedes.

Yes, there are risks. As Eno Sarris noted at ESPN.com, the projection systems are foretelling a significant decline at the plate for Cespedes next season. And as the New York Daily News‘ Harper outlined, “Cespedes has been dogged by whispers that he’s a bit of a diva who has done things his way in the past and hasn’t been the most coachable player in the game.”

That alone is a red flag for a club that’s trying to pick up the pieces of a lost season, one that bloomed with hype and promise and withered with inconsistency and infighting.

But new skipper Dusty Baker, legitimate criticisms aside, is an accomplished players’ manager who has worked with outsized personalities ranging from Barry Bonds to Sammy Sosa. Surely, he could juggle the egos of Cespedes and Harper and retain a modicum of clubhouse harmony.

The most talked-about aspect of the Nationals’ 2015 collapse was the team’s less-than-advertised super-rotation. But an offense that posted the second-lowest batting average in the NL after the All-Star break didn’t help.

Will Washington actually land Cespedes? It seems less likely after the Revere trade, but the Nationals did make a serious run at Jason Heyward before he signed for eight years and $184 million with the Chicago Cubs, meaning a nine-figure offer for an outfielder isn’t beyond the realm of possibility.

Should it happen? Doubters can debate the merits of giving eye-popping years and dollars to the 30-year-old Cespedes. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported the figure “being bandied” is six years and around $150 million. That’s a major investment.

Remember, though, Harper could become a free agent as soon as 2019, and right-hander Stephen Strasburg may bolt after this season. 

The time is now for the perennially underachieving Nats. The window won’t stay open forever. Which means it’s time to get bold, get scary and, why not, get Cespedes. 

All statistics and contract information courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

The glacial market for bats is slowly beginning to thaw, which means the long winter wait for Yoenis Cespedes, Chris Davis and Justin Upton should soon draw to an end as Week 9 of the 2015-2016 MLB offseason comes to a close.

While those unemployed sluggers dominate the conversation, there’s also room for some talk about a retired masher and a former ace whose Hall of Fame credentials are in the headlines.

Plus, an important question has popped up in Southern California following the latest executive addition to the Los Angeles Dodgers’ All-Star front office.

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Coming off a huge breakout in 2015, Yoenis Cespedes has a rare sort of distinction on the free-agent market. He’s arguably the most talented player still available, but he is also arguably the biggest question mark still available.

And yet, there is hope where the latter is concerned: Maybe Cespedes won’t be so much of a question mark if he lands in the right place.

For now, the possibility of Cespedes landing somewhere is becoming a bit more concrete. There hasn’t been a ton of noise coming from his direction of the rumor mill this winter, but Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com reported shortly before the new year that the 30-year-old outfielder’s market is heating up:

That’s five potential suitors, which puts Cespedes in a not-so-bad position.

But that’s not quite the same as the ideal position.

Back in September of 2015, Cespedes had a clear idea of what he wanted in free agency.

“I’m not thinking about a contract,” Cespedes said, via Adam Rubin of ESPN New York, “but I do know that I will be looking for a contract that is six years or more, has to be six years or more. We’ll see what happens.”

Because Cespedes was in the middle of not just a career year but also a team-carrying performance that pushed the New York Mets to the World Series, his desire for a six-year deal seemed reasonable at the time. That remained the case into November, when Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors predicted Cespedes would land a six-year, $140 million contract in free agency.

But things look a little different now. Cespedes‘ leverage hasn’t been helped by his lengthy stay on the open market, and even his top suitors aren’t perfect candidates to match his price tag.

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Chicago White Sox are only interested in a three-year deal for Cespedes. Per Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports, the Baltimore Orioles “certainly aren’t” going to touch the $140 million figure predicted by Dierkes. The Los Angeles Angels and San Francisco Giants, meanwhile, aren’t exactly swimming in spare spending cash.

Frankly, teams do have reasons to shy away from matching Cespedes‘ price tag. There is, however, at least one reason for optimism that can be latched onto.

Let’s go back to that point about Cespedes being the most talented player on the free-agent market. It’s a hard one to argue, as he has a better throwing arm, more speed and as much power as the next player on the market. Heck, his speed/power combo alone is enough to make scouts drool.

“That’s Mickey Mantle, Bo Jackson territory,” one scout said of Cespedes‘ speed/power combo in October, via Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

Even better, it’s surprisingly easy to have faith in Cespedes‘ talents aging well. He may be on the wrong side of 30, but he only has four full major league seasons under his belt. Before those, he spent eight years playing in the Cuban National Series, which has a season a little over half the length of MLB’s.

As enticing as all this is, though, what must frighten teams is the trouble Cespedes has had consistently putting his talents to use on the field.

Cespedes broke through as a Rookie of the Year contender in 2012, posting an .861 OPS with 23 home runs and 16 stolen bases. But then came two straight years of mediocrity. Cespedes earned just a .744 OPS across 2013 and 2014, posting a mere .298 OBP in the process. He still rated as a solid overall outfielder, but the promise of superstardom he made in 2012 effectively evaporated.

On the surface, it looks like it came back in 2015. Cespedes posted a career-best .870 OPS with a career-high 35 home runs. And when you added up all his contributions, you got a top-10 outfielder whether you consulted Baseball-Reference.com WAR or FanGraphs WAR.

In times like these, it’s tempting to use the phrase “finally put it all together.” Thing is, though, that’s not entirely true. 

Cespedes didn’t get more advanced at the plate in 2015, as his walk rate continued to tumble and his strikeout rate continued to mingle right around league average. He still rated as a solid baserunner, but without lifting his stolen base total back into double digits. He also continued to rate as an excellent defender, but with much of his value once again tied up in his arm. 

Clearly, Cespedes‘ big breakout in 2015 was not the result of him revamping his entire game. Instead, it was driven by one thing in particular: power.

Cespedes‘ power awakening was evident not only in the fact that his 35 homers blew away his previous career high of 26, but also in how he enjoyed a huge spike in isolated power. And it continues to make sense as you go down the line. 

Cespedes also posted a career-low soft-hit rate and a career-high hard-hit rate, signaling that he truly was hitting the ball harder. The shift in those two departments was especially pronounced when he got the ball up in the air.

We shouldn’t be surprised that Cespedes‘ big breakout was based on power. As we saw in the 2013 and 2014 Home Run Derbies, his power is the most impressive of his many raw talents. And even before 2015, his power was the one skill that showed up consistently in games.

Clearly, this is where Cespedes‘ suitors should be focusing. If Cespedes‘ 2015 power spike can endure, his rise to superstardom could also endure. The question, then, is how a team can exploit his power.

Or, more accurately, where.

One thing that stands out when looking at Cespedes‘ career home/road splits is that he’s tended to be a better power hitter away from home. He owns a .202 career ISO at home and a .228 career ISO on the road. 

Which makes sense. Apart from a two-month stint in Boston at the end of 2014, Cespedes has spent his career playing home games in parks that aren’t known to be power-friendly. First there was O.co Coliseum, and then came Comerica Park and Citi Field. Per ESPN.com’s park factors, all three tend to rate as either neutral or unfriendly parks for power hitters.

Giving Cespedes a more power-friendly home ballpark to play in, therefore, could go a long way toward making sure his 2015 power breakout has some staying power. And this, naturally, is where it becomes easy to draw a line in the sand between his suitors.

On one side, you have the Angels and Giants. Because it would mainly involve gambling on Cespedes‘ power, both clubs should be wary of signing him—even if it were at a discounted rate. Angel Stadium of Anaheim and AT&T Park are noted death traps for power hitters. As such, neither club would be putting Cespedes in a good position to continue his power-based breakout.

The White Sox and Orioles are on the other side of the line and, indeed, on the other side of the spectrum. U.S. Cellular Field and Oriole Park at Camden Yards are notoriously power-friendly, giving both clubs major incentive to keep leading the charge for Cespedes. 

Of course, there is the matter of dollars and cents. But that’s where either club might actually be able to get its wish.

Let’s assume it’s true that neither the White Sox nor the Orioles want to pay market value for Cespedes. That would have put them on the outside looking in a couple of months ago, but that’s not necessarily true now. With so much money having already been spent in free agency, there may not be enough to go around for the big players remaining on the open market. 

As John Perrotto wrote at TodaysKnuckleball.com, “there is a feeling” that heavy hitters like Cespedes, Justin Upton, Alex Gordon and Chris Davis will have to settle for less money than they originally hoped. Albeit more tentatively, Joel Sherman of the New York Post also expressed a belief that “prices ultimately will fall.”

For clubs like the Angels and Giants, this means there’s a chance they could limit the risk involved with signing Cespedes despite neither club having the right ballpark for him. For the White Sox and Orioles, on the other hand, it means a chance to potentially turn Cespedes into a massive free-agent steal.

Granted, Cespedes himself would probably prefer to get his asking price. But as far as consolation prizes go, he could ask for worse than the chance to show his big breakout was no fluke.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Yoenis Cespedes, Chris Davis, Alex Gordon and Justin Upton have historically bad luck.

As Joel Sherman of the New York Post sees it, the market for free-agent game-changers has never developed at a slower pace.

“Never has there been this many talented free agents unsigned this late into the offseason.”

While those unfortunate and unemployed stars wait to find out where they’ll be playing in 2016, let’s play a game of offseason musical chairs and predict where everyone will end up when the music stops.

Free-agent hitters dominate the conversation, but there’s also room on the list for a prediction about one trade target who smashed 40 home runs during the season that was.

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Yoenis Cespedes had help, but the fact is the New York Mets were just two games over .500 when he arrived and National League champions when he left. Cespedes isn’t perfect, but the fact is his teams have gone 334-229 in games he has started and 179-229 when he hasn’t.

He’s a game-changer, and with the Mets he was a season-changer. And while they could justify not re-signing him for baseball reasons (not wanting to play him every day in center field) or for money reasons (the owners aren’t going to let the payroll grow very much, if at all), the Mets are going to miss him and some other team is going to be very happy to get him.

Who will that other team be? The Cespedes market has generated surprisingly few strong rumors, but Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com provided a perhaps-significant update Tuesday afternoon on Twitter:

So maybe Cespedes becomes the second big addition the Chicago White Sox make this winter, after their trade for third baseman Todd Frazier. Or maybe he becomes the outfield bat the Baltimore Orioles have sought since losing Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz to free agency.

He’d be a nice fit with the Los Angeles Angels or the San Francisco Giants, the two teams whose left fielders had the fewest RBI in the major leagues in 2015. But Angels owner Arte Moreno recently told Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times his team is “probably going to be out” of the free-agent left fielder sweepstakes, and the Giants already spent a lot of money this winter adding Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to their rotation.

The White Sox and Orioles make sense. The White Sox might make the most sense of all, even though they already have three starting outfielders in Melky Cabrera, Adam Eaton and Avisail Garcia.

Those three guys combined hit only 39 home runs last season. Cespedes hit 35 all by himself. The White Sox as a team hit the fewest home runs in the American League, an incredible stat for a team that plays home games at U.S. Cellular Field.

Adding Frazier should help. Adding Frazier and Cespedes would really help.

Suddenly, the White Sox would be what they were supposed to be last year: a true contender in the American League Central.

The division includes the World Series champions, and some Kansas City Royals fans would be quick to point out that their team won the AL Central by 12 games over the second-place Minnesota Twins (and finished 19 games ahead of the White Sox). I’ll repeat my claim that it’s now the most interesting division in baseball, in part because it’s the one division where all five teams seemingly believe they can win it in 2016.

That may or may not be true in the American League East, where even though Cespedes could be a big help in Baltimore, he may not be big enough. Unless the Orioles are prepared to sign Cespedes and Chris Davis—doubtful, given that signing either one would require the biggest contract in team history—Cespedes would be more of a replacement than an addition.

And given that the Orioles were a .500 team with Davis hitting 47 home runs, it’s hard to argue Cespedes turns them into champions.

It would be an easier argument with the Angels, where Mike Trout could use a little help and Albert Pujols will be coming back from surgery on his right foot. It would be an easier argument with the Giants, where the Cueto and Samardzija signings were big, but the lineup still looks a little light.

It would be easier with the Mets, if you could trust Cespedes playing center field, or with the Detroit Tigers, if they hadn’t needed their available funds to fix a broken pitching staff.

It would also be easier to predict where he’ll end up if the market wasn’t flooded with outfielders. Jason Heyward has signed, but Justin Upton and Alex Gordon remain as free-agent options for any team interested in Cespedes. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported Tuesday on Twitter that the White Sox have considered Gordon as well as Cespedes.

Nothing against Gordon, but Cespedes would make the bigger impact. Cespedes on the South Side of Chicago might make the biggest impact of all.

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

It’s already Week 7 of the 2015-16 MLB offseason, and Clayton Kershaw still needs a sidekick.

From figuring out who will be backing up baseball’s nastiest starter at Dodger Stadium to trying to explain why so many prominent free-agent bats remain unsigned, there are all sorts of questions to ponder as 2016 inches ever closer.

There’s room in this week’s conversation for talk about whether one of the game’s most underrated bullpen aces could be on the move. But first, let’s get back to Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers’ work-in-progress rotation.

Who Will Be the No. 2 Starter at Chavez Ravine?

The Jose Fernandez trade talk just won’t go away.

And the Miami Marlins aren’t exactly quashing the noise:

According to Jon Morosi of Fox Sports, the door remains slightly ajar when it comes to the Dodgers and Fernandez:

But based on the Marlins’ staggering reported asking price, the key phrase is likely “no deal close.” Back during the winter meetings, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com explained that the Fish wanted Julio Urias, Corey Seager, Joc Pederson and two more players in exchange for the electric Cuban.

For the Marlins, there’s no harm in asking. But that’s the kind of exorbitant demand that would lead Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman to hang up the phone and hang up fast.

Lyle Spencer of MLB.com suggested that Friedman should give Billy Beane a ring as he searches for that second ace:

Gray doesn’t generate the same buzz as Fernandez, but the diminutive righty is a rising star in his own right. In 2015, the starter landed third in the American League Cy Young Award voting. And Beane, the Oakland Athletics’ executive vice president of baseball operations, is in no rush to cash in on Gray.

“It’s a fair question,” Beane said, when asked by Joe Stiglich of CSN California about the topic of trading Gray. “And you could imagine how many people, at least early in the winter, were inquiring on him. We were pretty aggressively returning those calls and saying it wasn’t something we were gonna consider. That’s our stance now.”

So where could the Dodgers turn with Fernandez and Gray looking like virtual no-go’s?

Jake Odorizzi is one guy to watch out for. Per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, Los Angeles has already checked in with the Tampa Bay Rays about the starter, who turns 26 in March.

Odorizzi doesn’t have nearly the same national profile as Fernandez or even Gray, but there’s still a lot to like about his arm. Last year, the starter was eighth in the AL with a 3.35 ERA. Thanks to his contract situation, he could also be a Dodger for the foreseeable future, as he remains under team control through the 2020 season.

The Answer: Odorizzi

What the Heck Is Going on with the Free-Agent Market for Bats?

The market for top-of-the-line position players has been moving about as fast as a glacier.

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports provided the cold hard numbers: “Only two free-agent position players have signed multiyear contracts this offseason for more than $20 million guaranteed—outfielder Jason Heyward and infielder Ben Zobrist.”

Surveying the remaining class of bats, here’s the list of guys who should have already cleared that relatively low bar:

• Chris Davis
• Yoenis Cespedes
• Justin Upton
• Alex Gordon

Davis is the outlier here, as the masher could have already landed a new gig if he had wanted to. As Heyman noted, the Baltimore Orioles “pulled” a seven-year, $154 million offer after Crush Davis and his agent Scott Boras took too long thinking about it.

The slow play is classic Boras, as the super-agent is well-known for his strategy of waiting out the market before securing a megadeal seemingly out of nowhere at the last moment.

But when it comes to the nearly nonexistent market for Cespedes, Upton and Gordon, it’s much more difficult to explain just what’s going on.

Cespedes cracked 35 home runs last year, and so far he doesn’t have a single reported offer.

Noah Syndergaard would like to see the New York Mets make an offer.

“Of course we’re hoping [that he’ll be back],” Syndergaard said, per Dan Martin of the New York Post. “We all saw the tear he went on from July through the end of the season. We’d love to have that bat back in the lineup, so as long as he’s out there, we’re hoping for that.”

But Joel Sherman of the Post was quick to dash those hopes:

As long as Cespedes remains on the block, Upton could be in a bind. Like La Potencia, Upton is a slugger best suited for left field. But last year, Cespedes trumped Upton in WAR, average, slugging percentage, OPS, home runs and RBI, per FanGraphs.

And then there’s Gordon. Unlike Cespedes and Upton, at least the longtime Kansas City Royal has drawn some concrete interest, per Heyman, from clubs like the Orioles, St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Angels and San Francisco Giants. Rosenthal also added the Chicago White Sox to that list.

That’s a good start for Gordon.

The problem is that he’s not just competing for a job with all those other corner guys on the free-agent front. He’s also competing with star trade pieces like Carlos Gonzalez. According to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, CarGo—he of 40 home runs in 2015—is available in a swap.

Simply put, the free-agent and trade marketplaces are flush with talent. And word in the industry is that there are more than a few clubs who have no interest in writing any big checks.

That’s a bad look for the game, and even worse news for the players.

The Answer: Thanks in Part to Tanking, Supply is Exceeding Demand

Will the Pittsburgh Pirates Sell High on Mark Melancon?

Neal Huntington, the understated general manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates, never wins the offseason.

But the clubs that he constructs have a knack for racking up wins during the regular season, as the Bucs have tallied at least 88 Ws in each of the past three campaigns.

The trick is Huntington is always thinking one step ahead and making moves that keep the roster deep yet cost-controlled. With the unheralded Mark Melancon hanging in the trade winds, just such a move could be on tap for the National League Central squad.

“We’ve never had to trade Mark,” Huntington said, per Adam Berry of MLB.com. “It’s always been [a question of] if we’re better with him with us, or if we think it’s a better move for the organization to move him elsewhere, and that still applies.”

That sounds like Huntington is daring rival execs to make him an offer he can’t refuse.

And why shouldn’t he? Melancon, who was eighth in Senior Circuit Cy Young voting in 2015, can become a free agent at the end of next season. The right-hander has put himself on track to score a monster haul next winter.

As a prime candidate to receive a qualifying offer, he’s also all but certain to net the Pirates a compensation pick if he departs. Following that line of reasoning, it would be a shrewd business decision for the team to move Melancon now if the return would significantly beat the value of a comp pick.

The Answer: Not Unless the Pirates Get Overwhelmed

Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com unless otherwise noted.

If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

For a brief moment in time, the entire belief made a lot of sense. 

It was too logical not to.

Major League Baseball’s free agency and trade market had seen the predictable run on starting pitchers, and even a bunch of relievers. Then, somewhat predictably, the biggest position player on either market, Jason Heyward, signed his megadeal with the Chicago Cubs for $184 million over eight seasons.

After that, if figured to be time for the best of the rest, especially the outfielders. Among them, Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes were the headliners, but surprisingly, they remain on the marquee going on two weeks after news of Heyward’s agreement came to light.

While those two are still on the board, it is certainly worth examining why and how much each is worth, obviously using Heyward’s massive contract as a barometer. Neither Upton nor Cespedes should reach those heights in years or total money, but both deals stand to be significant—sooner or later.

Free agency opened over a month ago. Amazing it’s taken this long for the outfield market to get moving. https://t.co/xkWjZJkdwS

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) December 11, 2015

“I don’t remember it ever being separated like that,” Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein told ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick days before his team agreed to terms with Heyward. “There was just more supply and more demand for pitchers than anywhere else, and outfielders came next. Everyone is just waiting for the first one to sign.”

The first one has now, yet there is still little to no movement on the markets for Upton or Cespedes, as well as Alex Gordon, who is seen as another premier outfield option, though one who will receive a lighter contract than the other two because he will be 32 years old next season.

All three can make cases to top $100 million in the open market, but Upton and Cespedes are locks to do so.

Upton, a former No. 1 overall pick by the Arizona Diamondbacks, is going into his age-28 season and is coming off three very good seasons, all of which were played in the traditional pitcher-friendly parks of Turner Field and Petco Park. In those three seasons with the Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres, Upton has averaged 27 home runs a year and put up a 126 OPS+.

He has been durable and consistent, a knock on him during his five seasons with the Diamondbacks, as his OPS+ totals fluctuated from as low as 107 to 141 in that time. That unpredictability, which led him to be tabbed by his first organization as an underachiever with five-tool talent, led to Upton being traded to the Braves, who flipped him to the Padres after two productive seasons in Atlanta.

Having absolutely proven he can be a middle-of-the-order bat, Upton’s market figured to be flush with suitors this offseason. But through November, the winter meetings and now headed into Christmas and the end of the year, there has been only quiet rumors regarding Upton. The Baltimore Orioles seem to be a realistic option and fit—the Orioles need an impact bat, could use an outfielder, and Upton is from bordering Virginia—but there’s been little traction there since CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported the team met with Upton’s agent before Heyward signed with the Cubs.

The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Angels have a need for a power-hitting outfielder, but the Giants took themselves out of that market after signing Johnny Cueto last week, and Angels owner Arte Moreno told reporters (per Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times) his team will not pursue Upton or Cespedes. We should not completely count out either club, though.

If they truly are out on either player, it would hurt both players’ leverage. However, Upton being the youngest of the remaining options and still a premier outfielder in his prime means a huge contract is in play. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors predicted a seven-year, $147 million contract, and that kind of deal, and maybe even a richer one, still seems plausible considering what outfielders like Matt Kemp ($160 million), Jacoby Ellsbury ($153 million) and Carl Crawford ($142 million) have received.

In the current market, Upton is worth something along the lines of a $20-23 million average annual value. Despite being older, Jeff Todd of MLB Trade Rumors predicted during the winter meetings that Cespedes would receive around the top end of that range, at $140 million over six years.

FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron predicted Cespedes would get $150 million over seven years. That total monetary value seems accurate, considering he is 30 and his recent and projected production, according to Cameron’s FanGraphs teammate Craig Edwards.

Cespedes has proven to be a power hitter with plus defensive value, and his value spiked last season during a six-week span with the New York Mets when he batted .309/.356/.691 with a 1.048 OPS, 10 doubles and 17 home runs. That red-hot stretch sparked premature MVP consideration and had Cespedes looking like he might be the best bat on the market this offseason.

Unfortunately for his stock, he cooled in the final two weeks of the regular season and was mostly unproductive in the postseason. In a free-market system prone to overreactions based on October performances, it was a bad time for Cespedes to go cold.

Now teams will value him properly, and that means $150 million, or its surrounding areas, is where Cespedes’ eventual price should end up residing, and probably for six years. That would be reasonable based on his history and projections, especially if he finds himself in an extreme hitter’s park like Baltimore’s Camden Yards—the Orioles have had recent contact with Cespedes (per Buster Olney of ESPN), but nothing serious has come of it yet:

With OF market frozen and O’s talks with Chris Davis at a standstill, BAL has engaged with high-end FA OFers, including Yoenis Cespedes.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 19, 2015

Heyward’s contract is a decent barometer, and if more teams were involved in the Upton/Cespedes rumors, whoever signed second could use the other’s deal as more leverage—they both have qualities the other does not, which could be used in negotiations. However, the fact that the market seems small for both, and Gordon, could lead to one of them jumping on a deal, as the other is not necessarily assured to top it afterward.

While we can somewhat gauge for how much Upton and Cespedes might sign, the more intriguing part of this is which club will lock down one of them first. The outfield market has yet to truly open up, and that could end up leading to a race to the negotiating table before the money and options dry up.

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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The 2015 MLB offseason has been an exercise in patience for prime-time outfielders like Yoenis Cespedes, Alex Gordon and Justin Upton.

Now that Jason Heyward has inked an eight-year, $184 million deal with the Chicago Cubs, the market has been set and the offseason game of outfield musical chairs can begin.

No team wants to be left without a seat—or rather, an outfielder—so the biggest names should start flying off the board in short order.

From predicting a new home for La Potencia to sending Gordon to one of the Kansas City Royals’ division rivals, here are four deals that will go down before New Year’s.

In addition to the free-agent forecasts, there’s also room on the list for a trade involving a vet who smashed 40 home runs in 2015

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