Kuzul

Alex Anthopoulos is continuing his revamping of the Toronto Blue Jays by trading star shortstop Alex Gonzalez to the Braves along with Tim Collins and Tyler Pastornicky in exchange for Jo-Jo Reyes and Yunel Escobar.

This is a great deal for the Blue Jays, as they get a player who is steadily improving defensively in Yunel Escobar while is very solid at the plate (somewhat rare for a SS). Anthopoulos thinks he’s a great player and took the risk of acquiring him because great players are impossible to acquire if they’re playing well (I wonder if Matt Cain is available).

The thing to note here is the Blue Jays are getting a SS who normally does very well at the plate, and they are trading a defensive minded SS who did not bat well until this year. So if this year is the outlier for both of them, Toronto wins big as they also get a player who will be with the Blue Jays for a long time (he is arbitration eligible for several years).

Pastornicky is a mid-level prospect, so they didn’t appear to give up too much there. Collins, on the other hand, is a great player who had to be included in this trade. Otherwise, Atlanta would not have done it.

Reyes is also another prospect that I would call mid-level. Don’t expect much from him though he may be able to do well. He has an ERA of 5.70 in AAA so we optioned him to AA New Hampshire.

I think the Blue Jays won big here; in fact, without Cito Gaston’s tutelage, I doubt Gonzalez does as well as he did this year. I do, however, expect Escobar to turn it around. As for the prospects, the Braves get better, but in the end I would say the Blue Jays won this trade.

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You’re a general manager with a team in the thick of a pennant race, trying to make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2005. Your shortstop has not yet produced at the plate, but has performed well in the field (sixth in the league in fielding average, and first in the league in double-plays turned). Shopping for a replacement, you come up with two choices:

Shortstop 1: .299 batting average, .837 OPS, 14 homers.

Shortstop 2: .238 batting average, .635 OPS, 8 homers.

You want shortstop No. 1, right?

Not if you’re Frank Wren, who just traded shortstop No. 1, Yunel Escobar, to the Toronto Blue Jays for shortstop No. 2, Alex Gonzalez. Okay, those are 2009 numbers, and we all know that baseball statistics are more meaningful when taken as larger samplings, so let’s take a look at the last few… What? Oh! That’s right! You’re Frank Wren, and you don’t believe in looking at a player’s performance in the long-term. You believe that a three-month sampling outweighs a player’s performance over a three-year span, or even a career. This sort of thinking is reminiscent of the miserable Braves teams of the 1980s, who once rewarded Alex Trevino for an early-season hot streak with a regrettable multi-year contract.

But let’s give Wren the benefit of the doubt, and take a look at current numbers. Over the course of the season’s first half, Gonzalez has outperformed Escobar in the power department, amassing 17 homers and 43 extra-base hits, while Escobar is inexplicably still looking for his first home run. Yet, Gonzalez still boasts a Darrel Chaney-esque .296 OBP. Who is Darrel Chaney, you ask? My point exactly.

The consensus around baseball is that Escobar can only get better. He’s too good, and has been too steady over the course of his career to keep performing at such a low level. It is also agreed that Gonzalez will not sustain these power numbers—he’s done nothing in his career to indicate this is anything but an exceptional, and atypical, hot streak. Even if he continues to perform near his current level, Gonazalez is a bad fit for this Braves team, which has thrived on making contact, hitting behind the runner, bunting, and manufacturing runs in a way no Bobby Cox team has before. Escobar, despite his power lapse, has a decent OBP, and puts the bat on the ball. Gonzalez strikes out once every 5 1/2 at-bats, a rate nearly double that of Escobar, and that rate is true not only for this season, but for his career.

The best case scenario for the Braves is that Gonzalez will be another Nate McLouth, who hits an occasional home run, plays good defense, and does little else. Some Braves fans will call for the light-hitting Omar Infante to take over at shortstop, but Infante’s value lies in his versatility. He can play seven positions, and play them fairly well, the value of which cannot be underestimated, especially with the oft-injured Chipper Jones, Matt Diaz, and the aforementioned McLouth on the team.

Rumor has it that the Braves, and particularly Bobby Cox, have soured on Escobar, citing a poor attitude and lack of intensity. Whether that is the motivation behind this move, or merely Wren making an impulsive decision in hopes of adding a little more pop to the lineup, this is a bad deal for the Braves. If anything, the team needs a clutch hitter who will consistently deliver a base hit in a critical situation—someone like Josh Willingham. What they got was a home run and a double a week, and lots of misery in between.

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As the month of May is drawing to a close, it’s hard to believe that coming into this month the Braves were in last place and just a game removed from a nine-game skid.

It almost feels like we are in a different season.

After a decent start to the month, the Braves caught fire—and have won five out of their last six series (the other series was a 1-1 split between the Braves and Mets).

As the Braves caught fire, the Phillies seemed to lose some of theirs, and the team which was heavily favored to return to the World Series holds a slim 1.5 game advantage over the Braves.

While a key series with the Phillies is on deck, the Braves first get a visit from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Just a week ago, the same two teams started a three game set, and the Braves won two.

After the series with the Pirates, the schedule gets much more difficult for the Braves, as they face the Phillies, Dodgers and Twins (as well as the struggling Diamondbacks) in the first half of June.

A series win over the Pirates would likely allow the Braves to play around .500 ball over that 13 game stretch and stay within striking distance of the Phillies.

Are Escobar and McCann Coming Around?

As good as the Braves have been recently, some of their players still have pretty bad stat lines. Among them are Yunel Escobar and Brian McCann, who typically are among the Braves most productive hitters.

After a terrible April, Brian McCann seems to be hitting like his old self again. In May, he hit .290 with three homeruns, and has raised his batting average 29 points along the way.

Although he is currently dealing with an arm injury, McCann is expected to be back in the lineup soon, and should continue to hit his way toward another Silver Slugger award.

Escobar hasn’t had the same success this month as McCann. He’s only played in about half the team’s games this month (due to an injury suffered the end of April) and has hit a meager .171 over that span.

But, Escobar is 4-6 over the past two games, and looks like he might finally be snapping out of his skid. A career .301 hitter coming into this year, he has nowhere to go but up as he is currently hitting .200.

Derek Lowe is Pitching Better (but still not worth the money)

It’s no secret that Derek Lowe has greatly underperformed since signing a huge free agent contract with the Braves.

In fact, you can probably count on one hand the number of people who expect him to return to his 2008 form (when he had a 3.24 ERA in his final year with the Dodgers).

But over his past three starts, Lowe has actually been solid, posting a 3.50 ERA over 18 innings of work.

While those numbers aren’t worth 15 million a year, I think that’s about as much as we can hope for from Lowe at this point.

Assuming that Jair Jurrjens can come back healthy and strong, the Braves would be in good position if Derek Lowe could just eat innings and keep his ERA around 4.00 for the rest of the year.

Upcoming Series: Atlanta Braves (25-22) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (20-28)

Derek Lowe (6-4, 5.30) vs. Zach Duke (3-4, 4.47)

Kris Medlen (1-1, 2.57) vs. Brian Burress (2-2, 5.40)

Kenshin Kawakami (0-7, 4.93) vs. Paul Maholm (3-4, 3.98)

The pitching matchups could have been better for the Braves, but I still think they will fare ok.

Zach Duke has been pitching great as of late (and beat Derek Lowe in his last start) so I think the Pirates will take the first game.

However, I think the Braves will win the last two games of the set, with Kenshin Kawakami finally getting his first win on Sunday.

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A crazy man once said “Just win, baby.”

It’s short, simple, sweet, and to the point.

It also defines perfectly what any professional team’s mindset should be on a night-in, night-out basis.

But, that simple saying spoken, from the mouth of a deranged lunatic that once called JaMarcus Russell a great quarterback, seems to be just outside of the range of comprehension for the 2010 Atlanta Braves.

Now, don’t take this as a wild rant following a 11-1 shellacking at the hands of the Arizona D-Backs.

It’s not (although that certainly helped to push this out).

This is a product of a month-and-a-half’s worth of frustration and exasperation that this Braves fan has felt and cooped up for far too long.

It has been my understanding that a team is supposed to build on what it has learned.

To rid itself of fundamental lapses that have cost them in the past so as to create a setting both on the field and in their clubhouse conducive to a winning atmosphere.

Apparently, that memo hasn’t reached someone in the Atlanta Braves’ organization.

I mean, how else do you miss a fly ball by 50 feet in outfield when you were once a gold glove recipient?

How else do you look seas in the water following an impressive four-game streak in which your team valiantly overcame deficits when needed in desperate times and flat-out rolled at others?

How else do you find yourselves relying on the same 20-year-old kid in every single pinch?

And how else are you unable to find some sort of motivation during the final season of your skipper’s reign over what used to be the most enviable team in the National League?

For me, it comes down to a few simple things.

No spirit…no fundamentals…no toughness…and no comradery.

(Now, directly at the Braves.)

How do you explain a meteoric rise and fall of what has the potential to be (and has been shown to be) a very dynamic club?

How?

Nothing has frustrated me more than looking like an idiot for supporting various peoples’ causes.

For getting my hopes up.

And for standing up for a team that I called a Wild Card favorite before the season that has amounted to a 17-19 hot mess.

The season’s not done…we still have 126 more games to go through/watch/enjoy/whatever.

If it was a level line of “don’t give a [intercourse],” it’d be one thing.

But the utter lack of enthusiasm and direction following halfway-descent runs is deflating my hopes that I had set to a pretty high level.

I’m sticking by the team ’til the end…I love the Braves too much not to.

But I’m having a harder and harder time adjusting to the turned corners only to meet brick wall after brick wall.

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What I’m Reading

The parallels between Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard continue, as Howard’s recent contract extension is bound to influence the market for Pujols’ cash-in day.

That must be one deep bruise. In addition to the past two games, the ailing Joe Mauer is expected to sit for this week’s Tigers series as well.

And just like that, Alex Gordon is headed back to the minors . Well, I have to say I did see this coming .

Gotta watch out for those nagging abductor injuries. They’ll get ya. Just like they got Yunel Escobar.

Chalk another one up in the win column for “White and Nerdy”. For the time being, the 39-year old pile of awesomeness known as Craig Counsell is holding down the starting SS spot in the Brewers’ lineup.

What I Think About It

Pujols

When Braves manager Bobby Cox “joked” about Pujols being worth $50 million a year if Ryan Howard received $25 million, the notion that he might be right couldn’t be immediately dismissed.

Pujols’ contributions to the St. Louis organization are unmatched.

Coinciding with a slew of astronomical statistics, his tangible evidence includes a unanimous Rookie of the Year, three MVPs, including five top ten finishes in the six years he hasn’t won an MVP, and a World Series title.

That all adds up to a lot of worth.

But the question is: how much?

Any team would gladly dish out $50 million a year if a title was guaranteed for every season over the course of the contract, but this is baseball and no such guarantee could ever be made.

His contract is likely up at the end of 2011, as St. Louis will undoubtedly pick up his club option for next year.

So the journey begins to find out the exact number that Pujols will be receiving from the Cards.

Thanks to Howard, we have a jump-off point of $25 million and a cap of $50 million, courtesy of Bobby Cox.

I am proud to officially announce on behalf of Mr. Jose Alberto Pujols that he will be signing a deal with the St. Louis Cardinals worth between $25 and $50 million.

Ok Al, I’m ready for my cut of the check now.

In reality, I expect it to touch the $31 to $34 million mark, likely pushing Alex Rodriguez out of his “highest paid player in baseball” title.

Joe Mauer

Now, this is no Joe Nathan situation, but the Twins are playing it safe with Joe Mauer’s soft heel.

Luckily, a DL stint isn’t going to happen.

When asked if there was a chance Mauer could end up on the disabled list, manager Ron Gardenhire said according to the Star Tribune, “No not at all. It’s a situation where if you try to get him out there too quick, then this thing will never heal. We just don’t want that to be the case. You’ve got to give this a couple extra days here, so that’s why we brought in another catcher.”

Excellent decision making. The Twins currently sit in first place in the A.L. Central with a favorable 16-9 record.

After locking up the division in 2009 despite not having Mauer for the entire month of April, they’ll be able to manage without him for a few games, assuming that this is all this is.

To me, it seems that this is an even stronger Minnesota team than last year, so once Mauer returns and keeps up his reigning MVP-like pace, they’ll cruise to another division title.

Also, a World Series title.

Yes, I did just drop my Series prediction on May 3 in the near-bottom paragraph of a Mauer injury tidbit.

Alex Gordon

This right here is the “official” Alex Gordon fan page on Facebook.

He literally has 14 fans.

14.

At least the city of Kansas City won’t be too broken up about his demotion.

The best part about this is: “If you have a passion for Alex Gordon, sign up and we’ll let you know when we’re ready for your help.”

The coalition for Alex Gordon to become a real pro ballplayer has now become a community outreach.

Now for a segment I’d like to call “Things Alex Gordon Can Do for His Fans”:

He could sign autographs for all of his fans and not get the slightest hand cramp.

He could purchase an entire row of seats at Johnny Rosenblatt Stadium, home of the Omaha Royals, label it “Gordon’s Group” and have all of his fans sit together to see him play.

He could even take all of his fans out to dinner and push two tables together so they can sit as a group.

You get the point.

In 12 games this season, Gordon is hitting .194.

There’s always hope he’ll regain whatever it was that got him drafted second overall in 2005, but my doubts about him grow rapidly.

Yunel Escobar

I don’t even know what an abductor is, but it scares the heck out of me.

It does, however, sound like a part of my body that I don’t want to screw up, especially now that it might send Yunel Escobar to the disabled list.

He’s still day-to-day right now but a DL stint has not been ruled out.

Despite some early struggles to open 2010, Escobar is quietly developing into a solid young shortstop bound to turn some heads as we head into this new decade of baseball.

The Braves just won three straight without him after taking a turn for the worse by losing nine in a row.                       

Also, for those that failed Anatomy and Physiology in high school like I did back in the day, here’s your lesson Monday.

It has always been tough for me to take Craig Counsell seriously.

For starters, anyone that holds a bat like this generally doesn’t fare well in the sporting world and might even be a little tapped in the head.

But Craig proves me wrong here.

While his career hasn’t been spectacular, the point remains that Counsell has still had a career.

He’s been hanging around the National League scene since 1995, carrying adjectives like “skinny,” “lanky”, and “out-of-place” with him wherever he goes.

But he has produced consistently enough to remain a staple in many “eighth spot in the order” situations over the past fifteen years and is surprising many this season up in Milwaukee.

“Our focus is still developing (Alcides) Escobar into an everyday player,” manager Ken Macha said according to the Journal Sentinel. “With that said, it’s an extreme luxury to have a player of this caliber go out there in Escobar’s place.”

**** I’d like to issue a “Get Well Soon” message to 2004 ALCS hero Dave Roberts, recently diagnosed with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma.

PD

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