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1. Navigating Nashville, Music City USA and Baseball’s Epicenter This Week

You probably think the most difficult thing for a general manager at the winter meetings is completing that three-way trade to land an ace or boxing out four other teams to land a bat.

Wrong. This year, the hardest thing in this massive maze of a resort that is the largest non-casino hotel in the United States outside of Las Vegas, with some 2,700 rooms, will be actually finding someone. For example, St. Louis general manager John Mozeliak could schedule a meeting with Cleveland GM Chris Antonetti on Monday at 1 p.m. to discuss a blockbuster trade, and they may not actually locate each other until Wednesday at 4 p.m. You need a GPS and a nutrition bar every time you leave your room, just in case.

Yes, signing a free agent like Jason Heyward (Cardinals? Angels?), Yoenis Cespedes (Mets? Cardinals?), Ben Zobrist (Mets? Cubs?), Johnny Cueto (Dodgers?), Chris Davis (Orioles?) or Daniel Murphy (Yankees?) will be difficult, too. It will require far more cash than clubs want to pay, especially based on what we’ve seen so far (David Price to Boston for seven years and $217 million, Zack Greinke to Arizona for six years and $206.5 million, Jordan Zimmermann to Detroit for five years and $110 million).

“I like the free-agent field. I think it’s good,” one longtime talent evaluator says, and amen to that. It is a strong and deep class this winter, especially regarding starting pitchers and corner outfielders.

But he adds, correctly: “I think it is the secondary guys who make or break a club more than the top-tier guys.”

Think back to 2012, the last time these winter meetings were in Nashville, and how Boston signed outfielder Shane Victorino, first baseman Mike Napoli and reliever Koji Uehara. All played key roles in the Red Sox winning the 2013 World Series.

In the meantime, the stage is set for an active trade market—possibly hyperactive—too. Several clubs have checked in with the Atlanta Braves on starter Shelby Miller. And rumors continue to crackle around a couple of legitimate aces: Oakland’s Sonny Gray and the Chicago White Sox’s Chris Sale.

Best part, always, are the surprise deals. Last year, nobody saw the Dodgers dealing second baseman Dee Gordon to Miami, and the Marlins wound up obtaining a batting champion.

As long as nobody goes missing, or is lost traveling the indoor river that flows through the Opryland Hotel, all should be good.   

2. NL West: Off to the Races

The question as they flew to Nashville was, will the Dodgers get left behind?

Zack Greinke to the Diamondbacks and Jeff Samardzija to the Giants left the Dodgers playing catch-up, big-time. But practically before Monday morning’s coffee had cooled, Los Angeles was on the move: They were on the verge of a deal with free-agent right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma late Sunday night, according to Bleacher Report sources, then Monday morning they reportedly landed Cincinnati closer Aroldis Chapman for two prospects.

The Dodgers were left with no choice but to act quickly: Losing Greinke was bad enough, but watching him flee to an NL West rival was especially painful in terms of Arizona closing the gap for 2016.

Together, Greinke and Clayton Kershaw camouflaged a series of weaknesses in Los Angeles last summer. Even had Greinke returned, the Dodgers needed rotation help. Now, it’s S.O.S. time, especially with the San Francisco Giants immediately striking to sign right-hander Jeff Samardzija ($90 million) practically before Greinke had even learned what next summer’s uniform combinations will be like in Arizona (trust us, there seemingly are more offerings than the 31 flavors at Baskin-Robbins).

The Diamondbacks and Giants both would like to add another starting pitcher, and both, according to industry sources, are targeting Mike Leake.

In San Francisco’s favor, perhaps, is that Leake pitched for Bruce Bochy during the second half of last year after Cincinnati traded him.

In Arizona’s favor, perhaps, is that with Greinke aboard, the Diamondbacks clearly have momentum going into ’16, and Leake played in Tempe at Arizona State.

The Dodgers? Adding Chapman to closer Kenley Janssen not only adds intrigue internally (Which one will close? Would Janssen accept a move to the eighth inning?), it signals the club’s post-Greinke plan: Clearly, building a strong bullpen now is a necessity given a rotation that likely will be weaker. Their sticking point with Greinke was they did not want to add a sixth year to their offer for a pitcher who already is 32.

One thing that has to rankle the Dodgers is that, with a payroll of around $300 million, they pumped $44 million worth of competitive balance tax into this year’s pool, and the D-backs were only too happy to be one of the recipients. In a way, the Dodgers helped finance Arizona’s poaching of Greinke.

3. Strong Secondary Pitching Market

Beyond David Price and Zack Greinke, the market is loaded with options—though things already have started to move. Even with Jordan Zimmermann (Tigers), Jeff Samardzija (Giants), John Lackey (Cubs) and Hisashi Iwakuma (Dodgers) off the market, Johnny Cueto, Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy, Doug Fister, Scott Kazmir, Mike Leake, Wei-Yin Chen, Bartolo Colon and Mat Latos all are available.

And already, Cueto reportedly turned down a $120 million offer from Arizona (the D-backs, of course, rebounded nicely with Greinke).

Beyond the free agents and the aforementioned starting pitcher trade options, even more could flood the market. Cleveland is desperate for offense, and some wonder whether the Indians will fix that by trading from their starting pitching depth. The names of Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer all have made their way to the rumor mill, so whether Cleveland finds a deal it likes will be one fascinating part of this week.

As the Padres look to fill holes, they are believed to be making James Shields very available. Failing that, don’t be surprised if the Padres move Andrew Cashner or Tyson Ross (for a whopping price only).

Might Tampa Bay move one of its excellent starters, Jake Odorizzi or Matt Moore? Might the Yankees deal Ivan Nova as they look to reshuffle and upgrade their rotation?

Beyond Price and Greinke, there are no sure things. While Bochy and San Francisco pitching coach Dave Righetti stand every chance of getting Samardzija launched in the right direction, he is coming off of a rock ’em, sock ’em year in which he led the majors in hits allowed and earned runs allowed, and produced a ragged 4.96 ERA.

“The thing that’s attractive about Samardzija to me is that he’s a super athlete,” one former GM says. “He’s going to go out there, and he’s probably going to get you 200 innings a year for the next four or five years. So at least you’re getting that.”

Yeah, but…

“I think the team that signs Samardzija will be horrified with the lack of what he gives you,” says one scout. “I understand he gives you [innings], but you lose. The most wins he’s had in a season in his career is 11. He’s a .500 pitcher at best, and he’s never proven anything beyond that.”

See, in baseball during the winter, as in modeling, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

4. Where Will Jason Heyward Go, and Whatever Happened to Yoenis Cespedes?

Let’s not allow pitching to hog the entire spotlight (hey, this is Nashville, and even on the television show by the same name, there’s plenty of room for both Connie Britton and Hayden Panettiere).

With runs per game and hits per game dwindling to early 1970s rates, few teams out there do not need hitting. And there are a handful of difference-makers, starting with Heyward. The Cardinals would love to bring him back. The Angels have a big need for an impact, left-handed bat. He fits several other places, too, and is projected by at least one handicapper to hit $200 million or more over 10 years.

“He is interesting to me, but the money they’re talking about with him I just don’t believe,” one industry source says. “This isn’t Mike Trout we’re talking about.”

So let’s raise a question: What if, instead of paying Heyward that, a team in the market for an outfielder who can get on base went for Dexter Fowler instead?

“If I wanted to get two guys out of this, I’d go get Fowler and then somebody else for the same money I’d have to pay Heyward,” the source says. “The market is there to go ahead and do that, to get two of what is considered second-tier players.”

Heyward is 26 and batted .293/.359/.439 with 13 homers, 60 RBI and 23 steals last season.

Fowler is 29 and batted .250/.346/.411 with 17 homers, 46 RBI and 20 steals last season.

In their same list, mlbtraderumors.com projects Fowler to go for $60 million over four years. Sure, Heyward is younger, but one size doesn’t fit all in the Hot Stove League.

Speaking of which, there is remarkably little buzz, so far, surrounding Cespedes. Partly because….

5. Ben Zobrist, Darling of the Hot Stove League

The Mets are pursuing Zobrist hard, according to Bleacher Report sources, and he fits well with several other clubs, too, including the Angels, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Nationals and Giants. Take your pick; Zobrist is versatile in the field, he’s a switch-hitter and he’s a leader in the clubhouse.

As of now, Cespedes is holed up waiting for clubs that don’t get Zobrist to turn to him.

6. The Unknown Factor in This Year’s Meetings

Introductions, please:

Ten clubs have changed GMs (or point men in charge of baseball operations, if you factor in those with a “president of baseball operations”-type of title) in the past few months, including the Angels (Billy Eppler), Red Sox (Dave Dombrowski), Tigers (Al Avila), Mariners (Jerry Dipoto), Blue Jays (Mark Shapiro/Tony LaCava/Ross Atkins), Brewers (David Stearns), Braves (John Coppolella), Marlins (Michael Hill is still president of baseball operations but the GM position is vacant), Phillies (Matt Klentak) and Reds (Dick Williams, with Walt Jocketty moving up to director of baseball operations).

Some of those names are familiar and experienced (Dombrowski, Dipoto), but many are just breaking ground in their new roles. How quickly will they move? How difficult will it be for them to navigate the landscape at the winter meetings and deal? And will they get lost in Nashville like so many hotel guests seen aimlessly wandering around?

7. Revisiting Closers

Already, Boston has traded for Craig Kimbrel and Detroit has acquired Francisco Rodriguez, and with teams such as the Chicago Cubs looking for a closer, there are several to be had via the trade market.

Early Monday morning, the Dodgers reportedly acquired the sexiest name on the trade market, Cincinnati closer Aroldis Chapman, but Monday night a bombshell dropped: Yahoo! Sports’ Tim Brown and Jeff Passan reported of a domestic violence incident at Chapman’s Florida home in October that put the trade on hold and well may lead to bigger and far more serious issues.

The Yankees are said to be listening on Andrew Miller as they look to upgrade their rotation. The Phillies are listening on Ken Giles, the White Sox might be enticed to deal David Robertson, one of their prizes from last year’s free-agent market, and the Nationals are widely expected to trade Drew Storen this winter and make a strong push to deal Jonathan Papelbon.

8. Other Points of Interest Beyond the Johnny Cash Museum

• Credit the Cubs for identifying a need and zeroing in on it quickly: John Lackey was a great under-the-radar buy before the Cubs snapped him up with a two-year, $32 million deal. “He’s one of the best out there,” one scout told B/R a couple of hours before he landed with the Cubs. “I know he’s 37, but this guy gives unbelievable effort and quality starts, time in and time out.”

• The Padres are expected to be much quieter than they were last year when GM A.J. Preller stole the show at the winter meetings, but they still need a shortstop (Ian Desmond?) and bullpen help (Fernando Rodney?).

• The Blue Jays traded 11 pitchers this year (including Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd to the Tigers in the David Price deal). They are looking to replenish their supply of minor league arms.

• They are done with their major moves, the Red Sox say, but some in the industry still expect new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to dump erstwhile slugger Hanley Ramirez at some point. “I would get Hanley as far away from that ball club as possible,” one executive says. “Panda (Pablo Sandoval) is a follower, not a leader. When he was with the Giants, he wasn’t a guy you worried much about. Yeah, he was overweight, but he played hard. Then he gets with Hanley and has one of the worst years of his career. Gee, I wonder if there’s any correlation. David’s got to unload one of those two, and my guess is he unloads Hanley—and he’s going to pay for a bunch of it.” Ramirez is still owed more than $69 million over the next three years.

• The Reds aren’t necessarily looking to deal third baseman Todd Frazier, but given the rebuilding and desperate need for pitching, anything is possible with Cincinnati.

• The Hall of Fame Pre-Integration Committee fired a shutout, failing to elect any of the 10 candidates they were considering. Charged with reviewing those who played before Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier in 1947, the committed reviewed, among others: Wes Ferrell (who pitched for 15 seasons and finished second in AL MVP voting in 1935 with Boston), Sam Breadon (an early Cardinals owner who hired Branch Rickey and created the blueprint for the modern farm system), slick-fielding shortstop Marty Marion (1944 NL MVP with the Cardinals), first baseman Frank McCormick (1940 NL MVP with the Reds) and right-hander Bucky Walters (who won the 1939 NL MVP award with the Reds).

• Sending all the best to Mets GM Sandy Alderson, who is battling an undisclosed form of cancer and is embarking upon 12 weeks of chemotherapy, and will not be in attendance in Nashville. Good thoughts and prayers his way.

9. Who Is Kenta Maeda and Why Do You Need to Know Him?

He is a 27-year-old right-hander posted last week by his Japanese team, the Hiroshima Carp. Being that he is at least two years younger than the best free-agent starters available right now and given that he won the Japanese version of a Cy Young Award this year (he surrendered only five total homers while facing 821 batters), he immediately becomes a very interesting player.

The Diamondbacks are looking for another starting pitcher, and GM Dave Stewart raved about Maeda last winter. “I love Maeda,” Stewart told MLB.com. “I love him.” The Dodgers need pitching, the A.J. Preller-led Padres always are in the market for international players, the Yankees could absolutely use him (though they again apparently are determined to stay under the $189 million competitive balance tax threshold and may not make a big free-agent move).

Any interested major league club can bid up to $20 million for the right to negotiate with him, and the winner would earn exclusive negotiating rights. If that club signs him, it pays the posting bid to the Carp, plus the contract to Maeda. If Maeda goes unsigned, that club does not owe anything to Hiroshima.

Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Scott on Twitter and talk baseball.

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In a stunning series of events Friday, right-handed starting pitcher Zack Greinke agreed to terms with the Arizona Diamondbacks, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.

The deal is for six years, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, and worth $206.5 million, according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.

As such, Greinke surpasses David Price, who joined the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday, with the highest per-year salary in baseball history at $34.4 million per year. 

ESPN analyst Tim Kurkjian said on SportsCenter on Friday that Greinke’s addition immediately catapults the D-backs into contention in the highly competitive National League West: 

They also are a pretty good club. This is without Zack Greinke. If you look at how they played last year—offensively, they were a very good team, defensively they were a very good team—but they needed a couple of pitchers. That was obvious.

And they got arguably the best pitcher on the market in Zack Greinke, who now goes to the top of the rotation and really puts the Diamondbacks in the middle of the West, given, of course, that the Dodgers and the Giants thought they had a real shot at Greinke.

ESPN Stats & Info showed how Greinke stacks up with the rest of his new team:

Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, who covered Greinke over the past three-plus seasons during his time with the Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels, added to the argument that the D-backs had already been legitimate contenders without Greinke:

Jesse Spector of Sporting News added context to show how much Greinke’s unprecedented deal will be worth to the star right-hander:

Jon Morosi of Fox Sports alluded to how surprising Friday’s signing was—particularly since few considered the D-backs to even be dark horses to sign Greinke:

Sports author Molly Knight called out the Dodgers front office for its failure to retain its top free agent—especially given the ongoing saga over its lucrative television-rights deal to broadcast games locally:

Diehard Dodgers fan and iconic newscaster Larry King also chimed in and relayed his disappointment:

D-backs reliever Daniel Hudson shared his excitement over the addition of his new teammate:

ESPN analyst Curt Schilling made a great point on SportsCenter Friday, pondering the prospect of if any player in any era has ever been worth $34.3 million per year. Eric Stephen of True Blue LA echoed that sentiment—particularly given Greinke’s age:

Greinke was expected to opt out of his deal after a remarkable season in which he went 19-3 with a 1.66 ERA—the majors’ lowest since Greg Maddux’s 1.63 in 1995. 

Greinke, this year’s runner-up for the National League Cy Young Award, opted out of his contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers in November with three years and $71 million remaining in hopes of hauling in a longer-term deal.

He was arguably the best player in this year’s loaded free-agent market and was expected to sign with either the incumbent Dodgers or archrival San Francisco Giants before the D-backs made a late push Friday.

By joining Arizona, he solidifies a rotation that, with the support of an upward-trending offense, should help the Diamondbacks become immediate contenders in the NL West.

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Prized free-agent starting pitcher Zack Greinke has pulled off an offseason stunner, reportedly signing with the Arizona Diamondbacks.  

Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports first reported the agreement between Greinke and the Diamondbacks.

Nick Piecoro of AZ Central reported it is for a whopping $206.5 million. Rosenthal reported the contract is worth $206 million with deferrals. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported there is no buyout in the deal.

According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports the $34.3 million annual average of the deal is 10 percent higher than the record David Price tied earlier this week.

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported the Los Angeles Dodgers offered Greinke a five-year deal averaging around $31 million. Team president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman released a statement following the deal:

Greinke will face a tax rate of 4.54 percent in Arizona, rather than the 13.3 percent rate in California, making the deal even more lucrative, per Andrew Baggarly of CSN Bay Area.

According to Rosenthal, the Diamondbacks may not be done adding pitchers, as the team met with starter Mike Leake on Thursday and remains interested even after the Greinke signing.

Greinke is coming off a dominant season with the Dodgers that saw him go 19-3 with a 1.66 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. He posted a 2.30 ERA with 555 strikeouts in 602.2 innings in three years with the organization after signing as a free agent in 2012.

The 32-year-old right-hander still had three years and $71 million in base salary left on that contract when he opted out in early November, per Spotrac. The allure of landing another lucrative long-term deal was too good to pass up after his outstanding campaign.

Greinke overcame some consistency issues that plagued him earlier in his career to establish himself as an ace, so there’s no doubt he deserves a monster contract. The question is exactly what type of performance to expect from him moving forward.

While his raw numbers were mostly microscopic last season, the advanced statistics suggest he wasn’t quite that extraordinary.

He had a 3.22 xFIP and 3.27 SIERA in 2015, according to FanGraphs, which suggests he benefited from some luck. The site did rank Arizona’s defense as the sixth best in baseball last year, well ahead of the Dodgers at No. 16, so there’s no reason to think Greinke’s numbers will drop. 

Arizona has been trying to upgrade its rotation this offseason. Johnny Cueto reportedly rejected a $120 million deal from the team, according to Steve Gilbert of MLB.com. 

The Diamondbacks went in a different direction after Cueto left them at the altar, ultimately getting a better starting pitcher to lead their rotation who doesn’t have the injury history Cueto does. 

Now that he’s signed, the onus is on him to live up to expectations, and they will surely be sky-high. It shouldn’t be a major issue during the early years of the deal, but how long he can pitch like a Cy Young candidate will determine the overall value.

Even in the short term, he probably won’t be able to match his 2015 numbers. Something more along the lines of his first two seasons in Los Angeles (2.63 and 2.71 ERA) is probably a fair target, and that would still make him a top-tier starter.

Adding Greinke certainly provides a boost to the Diamondbacks’ 2016 outlook. The team finished 79-83 last season with a rotation led by Rubby De La Rosa. It has made itself a playoff contender now while taking a significant bite out of Los Angeles’ rotation.

It’s a win-win all around for Arizona.

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With David Price off the board, Zack Greinke can officially claim his place at the center of the baseball universe as Week 4 of the 2015-16 MLB offseason draws to a close.

While everyone patiently awaits Greinke‘s decision on where he’ll be pitching in 2016, Aroldis Chapman is patiently waiting to find out just where he’ll be traded.

There’s no question about it—buzz surrounding prominent pitchers like Greinke and Chapman dominated the baseball week that was. And as if the market for arms wasn’t loaded enough already, another high-upside starter has been added to the free-agent front following the non-tender deadline.

Hurlers headline the list that follows, but there’s still room for talk about one position player who’s proving to be the most popular free agent of all this winter.

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There are three big winners of the mega-contract David Price signed on Tuesday. One is obviously Price, who is now filthy rich. Another is the Boston Red Sox, who finally have their ace.

The third is Zack Greinke. Not because he’s getting a cut of Price’s deal—that would be weird—but because it all but ensures either the Los Angeles Dodgers or the San Francisco Giants will give him one of his own.

If you missed it, Price did indeed come off the market on Tuesday. As Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe was the first to report, the pitching-needy Red Sox picked him up on a seven-year contract worth $217 million, the largest ever given to a pitcher.

Like that, Price joins Jordan Zimmermann among the free-agent aces who are now spoken for. Word is that Greinke could be next, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today saying it’s up to the Dodgers and Giants:

Here’s a one-word knee-jerk reaction: duh. 

Though Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported the Red Sox were in on Greinke before landing Price, the rumor mill has been suggesting all winter the veteran right-hander will either re-sign with the Dodgers or take the ol‘ NL West ferry up north to join the Giants. The notion the two are poised for a bidding war over Greinke isn’t anything new.

What is new in the wake of Price’s pact, however, is we now have an idea of what it will take for either of the two NL West rivals to sign Greinke.

Because Greinke, 32, is two years older than Price, he can’t hope to match the length of Price’s new contract. But according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick, Greinke wants to earn more per year:

Rosenthal has also indicated the average annual value of Greinke‘s next deal could surpass that of Price’s. He also expects it to cover five or six years, which could make Greinke‘s next contract worth as much as $190 million.

That, friends, is obviously a lot of money. Just don’t call it an outrageous amount. Greinke is presuming to be a better investment than Price, and he just might be.

For starters, there is the fact Greinke just led all of Major League Baseball with a 1.66 ERA in 2015, which was also the lowest ERA in 20 years. Over the previous three seasons, Baseball-Reference.com WAR posits that Greinke has been significantly more valuable than Price:

Further, it doesn’t hurt that Greinke can easily sell his suitors on the idea he can age without his best stuff. He’s already proven he can. That’s a big reason why Crasnick‘s recent poll of MLB executives resulted in Greinke being the preferred option over Price for a nine-figure deal.

“Greinke is an easy one here,” said one AL scout. “His delivery is too good, his control and command too spot on, his pitchability too high. He’s got athleticism and he’s intelligent—all the characteristics you need to age gracefully. I am not saying Price does not possess these same characteristics. I just don’t think he has them at the advanced levels that Greinke has them.”

In short, Greinke is far from out of his mind in demanding more money per year than Price. Based on his recent track record and his pitching style, he has the right idea.

And man-oh-man has he picked the right two teams to pitch this idea to.

Now that the Red Sox have Price, the Dodgers and Giants have both moved up a notch on the list of teams that desperately need an impact starter.

Behind the ever-awesome Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers have only question marks and injury risks. Behind fellow lefty ace Madison Bumgarner, the Giants have much of the same. Hence why both clubs have been routinely connected to the market’s biggest names, including Price and Zimmermann.

All along, it’s been apparent Greinke is at the top of both clubs’ respective wish lists. And with Price and Zimmermann off the market, Greinke has graduated from being a preferred target to the target for the Dodgers and Giants. It’s time for them to see how deep their pockets go.

The Dodgers, of course, are as rich as rich gets. They’ve spent hundreds of millions of dollars in recent years, going so far as to spend over $300 million on players in 2015. As of now, Cot’s Baseball Contracts says they only have about $170 million committed to 2016, with another $30 million or so due in arbitration costs, per MLB Trade Rumors. That’s “only” $200 million.

The Giants have plenty of spending power of their own. The upward trajectory of their recent payrolls suggests they could top last year’s roughly $170 million Opening Day payroll. Right now, they only have about $137 million on the books for 2016. There’s plenty of room for Greinke.

To be sure, Nightengale‘s note about the Dodgers still being the favorites for Greinke does ring true. If they decide money isn’t an object, they can outbid any team for any player. And according to the latest from head honcho Magic Johnson, money may indeed be no object.

“We want him back,” said Johnson of Greinke, via Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports. “He’s our priority, our No. 1 priority, of the offseason.”

The only question may be whether Andrew Friedman, the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, will change Johnson’s mind.

In speaking with Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, Friedman expressed discomfort at making big splashes in free agency, noting it doesn’t always correlate with the kind of October success that the franchise so badly craves. 

So, Giants, that’s your window. Friedman’s stance on big free-agent splashes means there’s a possibility the Dodgers will blink in a bidding war over Greinke. And given where the Giants stand with Greinke, it’s very possible they won’t blink before the Dodgers do.

Though the Dodgers have all of the spending power a team could ask for, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports warned a couple weeks ago the Giants are a real threat to sign Greinke away from them. It’s a chance to provide for themselves while also denying the enemy, a strategy that fits with general manager Bobby Evans’ goal for his starting rotation.

“We don’t want to keep up with them,” said Evans of the Dodgers and their typically awesome starting pitching at his year-end press conference in October, via Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News. “We want to pass them.”

Yeah, yeah, yeah. The Giants haven’t had much luck with nine-figure contracts for pitchers. The $126 million they spent on Barry Zito in 2006 is the greatest trick agent Scott Boras ever pulled. The $112.5 million extension the Giants gave Matt Cain seemed like a better idea in theory, but reality had other plans.

But the idea that Greinke can age well does hold water, and Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle says it’s one the Giants believe in. Some in their front office think he can be the next Greg Maddux.

In all, the stage is set for a heck of a bidding war. In the middle is Greinke, a truly fantastic pitcher. Looming over him is one team that definitely needs him and can definitely afford him, and another that needs him just as bad and may simply want him. 

One way or another, Greinke is going to get what he wants from an NL West power. All he needs to know now is which one it’s going to be, and his answer should come very soon.

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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Few pitchers on this year’s free-agent market are more prized than Zack Greinke. After having his best season since winning the Cy Young Award in 2009, the veteran right-hander is about to cash in no matter where he eventually lands.

Continue for updates.

Greinke Setting Price at $30 Million Annually

Monday, Nov. 30

According to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants are among the teams showing serious interest in signing Greinke this offseason.

While $30 million isn’t an unreasonable salary for an ace in today’s game, Crasnick wondered how much Greinke’s age, 32, might impact any negotiations.

Greinke finished 2015 with a record of 19-3 and a 1.66 earned run average. According to FanGraphs, his FIP was a full run higher (2.76), but he still finished with the seventh-highest WAR (5.9) among all pitchers.

Even with his impressive record, you can understand why teams might balk at the idea of signing him to a five- or six-year deal, similar to Justin Verlander’s extension. The New York Yankees haven’t gotten a great return on CC Sabathia’s eight-year, $186 million extension, either.

Greinke might well receive something approaching the annual salary he’s initially asking, but he may have to compromise on the length of the contract.

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Little to nothing is guaranteed in Major League Baseball. That includes player production, and especially when you are counting on it for an extended block of time.

That is why signing free agents to huge deals for hundreds of millions of dollars—or even tens of millions—is such a risky and unpredictable proposition for all 30 front offices. The long-term mega contracts always have a realistic chance of busting. It’s the nature of people; it’s the nature of the baseball business.

But on the open market, you have to pay those uncomfortable prices, which include years and in some cases draft picks, to get the player.

This offseason’s free-agent class is rich. There is power, there is defense, there is bullpen help and there is an abundance of starting pitching, with a couple of top-tier arms, some second-level ones and even more below that. Whatever need a club might have, it can cure it for the right price.

The concern with such deals is the player staying productive long enough to live up to the contract. But every year it seems there is a small group of players who appear destined to fulfill expectations. This offseason we can pick out a handful of players on the market who seem to be bust-proof, even with long-term, relatively big-money contracts to their names.

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Opting out didn’t surprise anybody. 

Not the Los Angeles Dodgers decision-makers, not the team’s fans, not the media that covers the organization and entire industry, not the man’s teammates and not rival teams.

No one was stunned when ace Zack Greinke left $71 million and three years in his wake by opting out of his deal with the Dodgers. With possibly double that dollar amount available in free agency after Greinke’s outstanding and historic 2015 season, it was the right-hander’s best option.

However, just because Greinke is on the open market and available to virtually any team he wants to play for does not mean he should leave Los Angeles or his co-ace, Clayton Kershaw. And according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the team has made convincing Greinke of that its top priority this offseason.

That would be wise, because without Greinke, the Dodgers rotation suddenly becomes thin and questionable after Kershaw. But for Greinke, signing up to be a Dodger for what will likely be the rest of his career makes just as much sense, as he can be part of the game’s best 1-2 punch with Kershaw.

There have been almost no reports on Greinke’s thought process since the Dodgers’ season ended in the National League Division Series. All we know for certain is Greinke had nice things to say immediately after the playoff run ended.

“That would be nice,” Greinke told reporters last month when asked if he wanted to return to the Dodgers. “I guess that is my whole response.”

That was not the whole response, though.

“It’s got to be the best franchise in the game, I would think,” Greinke added. “They’re in a great situation.”

The comments might be enough to convince Dodgers fans Greinke, who had a 1.66 ERA and 225 ERA+ last season, will re-sign with the team before spring training. Then again, it is common baseball knowledge by now that Greinke chose the Dodgers in the first place mostly because they were able to offer him the most money.

The Dodgers are still in a position to do that this winter, but there is going to be competition and possibly just as much money offered by other clubs. For instance, the rival San Francisco Giants reportedly have serious interest in Greinke, who finished second in the National League Cy Young Award voting and was the league’s Player’s Choice Outstanding Pitcher. The Giants could make him their No. 1 target this offseason, significantly boosting their rotation while weakening the Dodgers, who have won the NL West in three consecutive seasons.

rivals giants seen as threat to steal greinke away from dodgers. https://t.co/uKo2R2JiCo

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) November 20, 2015

The Giants are not the only big-money club with potential eyes for the ace. Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (h/t CBS Sports) has speculated the Boston Red Sox have real interest, and despite their mantra not to spend big in free agency, it would be negligent not to believe the New York Yankees could jump into the fray.

For Greinke, the problem with those places could be the clubhouse atmosphere and media coverage. While Los Angeles is a major world market, the traveling media corps is relatively small and far less critical than those in Boston or New York, where every misplaced fastball might be chronicled as the end of good times and evidence of Greinke’s nine-figure contract being a busted one.

In October, Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald quoted a source close to Greinke as saying he “definitely wouldn’t want any more stress or additional media attention” with a new club. Greinke, who has discussed his social anxiety disorder and clinical depression in the past, would be walking into exactly that if he ended up with the Red Sox or Yankees.

This is another reason why Los Angeles seems like the place for him, because even in San Francisco, another relaxed media market, he would enter next year being looked at as the reason the Giants should win a fourth World Series in seven years. While the Dodgers seem to need him to win their first since 1988, Greinke is already comfortable with the expectations and media there.

He is also comfortable as the team’s No. 2 starter. Kershaw is the all-world ace of the team, and much of the pressure to win a title lands on his left arm. Despite Greinke’s historic season, he was able to pitch in Kershaw’s shadow most of the year even when he was the team’s best pitcher for months at a time. For Greinke, that seems ideal.

According to Molly Knight, author of The Best Team Money Can Buy, via Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan (h/t Fox Sports), there has been clubhouse discord involving Greinke and Yasiel Puig, but that is likely not enough to scare him into the arms of another organization. That is especially true if the Dodgers are indeed prioritizing Greinke, 32, as their top free agent and willing to pay him as such.

The rub is the Dodgers might not be willing to overextend. Team president Stan Kasten does not like to extend pitchers with a certain number of innings on their arms, and the front office, led by President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman, has said in the past he does not want to be handcuffed in the future by huge contracts to a group of players in their mid- or late 30s.

“They’d certainly like to retain [him], but…the Dodgers know that he’s going to command a lot of money on the open market,” Los Angeles Times writer Bill Shaikin said on MLB Network on Monday. “They also know they don’t want to get into six- and seven-year territory with a guy who is going to be pushing 40 years old at the end of the contract.”

This comes down to how badly Greinke would like to remain with the Dodgers, who will pay him market value but maybe just not for six or seven years. It also might be decided by Greinke’s comfort level with the organization and clubhouse, and if that is the case, he should realize he might not find a better situation for himself and his wants and needs than the Dodgers.

Greinke has already had lots of success with the Dodgers as the No. 2 guy to Kershaw’s ace, and he can continue to pitch as one of the best in the majors within that setup. It works for him, as does the cash the Dodgers are going to put on the table.

Now, it is up to Greinke to make the call.

Advanced statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. 

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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The MLB winter meetings are just two weeks away, and the competitive landscape of free agency will likely make its biggest plays this offseason.

Executives of all 30 teams will convene in Nashville, where the hot stove will reach its peak.

The offseason has already featured a bevy of trades and signings; however, many of the blue-chip free agents—notably the slew of starting pitchers—are still on the market.

Here is the latest buzz on a few key pitchers rumored to possibly suit up in a different uniform than the year prior.

Rival Giants Reported Favorites to Sign Zack Greinke

Since the Los Angeles Dodgers were eliminated from the playoffs, Zack Greinke has opted out of a $71 million guaranteed deal and finished runner-up for the National League Cy Young Award despite hurling the lowest ERA (1.66) in two decades.

But it appears Greinke’s fortunes may turn around soon. At 32, he’s expected to successfully command an even richer deal than the $23.6 million salary he was earning with the Dodgers—and perhaps with the biggest rivals to the boys in blue.

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports the San Francisco Giants may have stolen momentum from the incumbent Dodgers as favorites to land Greinke.

The Giants are in the market for a starting pitcher this offseason, perhaps two, and have the wallet to pursue an asset as expensive as Greinke. And falling short last winter in the Jon Lester sweepstakes showed, as their rotation didn’t have much to lean on past superstar Madison Bumgarner.

Signing Greinke—and perhaps another above-par starter—would not only give the Giants the best rotation in the NL West, but also steal that moniker away from the reigning three-time division champion Dodgers.

John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle discussed the immediate impact Greinke could make in shifting the competitive balance of the entire division:

One move. It’s all the Giants need to make. It virtually could assure a division title so long as other players have their normal years. It would solidify the roster. It would shift the balance of power in the National League West.

It would be signing Zack Greinke.

Giants manager Bruce Bochy named Greinke the NL starter at last year’s All-Star Game, and Andrew Baggarly of CSN Bay Area quipped the pair’s relationship should steer in San Francisco’s favor:

The Dodgers expected to be in this position, as the veteran righty had long been expected to opt out of his deal. Those speculations were all but guaranteed when Greinke was in the midst of a Cy Young-worthy campaign last summer.

The Dodgers will still make a hard run at Greinke, who said after the season he’d like to remain in L.A. But their rivals up the Pacific Coast Highway may soar the price tag.

Dodgers Making Jordan Zimmermann Top Priority

Bracing for Greinke’s possible departure, the Dodgers are also looking at another hard-hurling righty, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today:

If Greinke and David Price are the A-listers of this class, Jordan Zimmermann is a B to B-plus candidate.

He saw some falloff in 2015—his ERA, WHIP and FIP were all worse than the year prior—but he eclipsed 200 innings for the second time in three years (with a 199.2 inning year sandwiched in between), leaving his 2009 Tommy John surgery in the distant rearview.

Zimmermann turns 30 next season, so he’s a tad younger than the other high-profile pitchers on the market. But if the Dodgers sign him they’ll lose their highest draft pick because he turned down a qualifying offer from the Nationals.

The Dodgers may be willing to take that chance—particularly if Greinke jets—as they are very much in win-now mode, as World Series favorites at some point in each of the last three offseasons.

They’ll be making their 2016 run with Dave Roberts as the new manager, according to the Los Angeles Times’ Dylan Hernandez, Bill Plaschke and Bill Shaikin, so a clubhouse favorite such as Zimmermann certainly boosts their winning culture.

The Chicago Cubs, a fellow NL pennant-chaser, have also emerged in the Zimmermann sweepstakes, according to the Chicago Sun-Times.

Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reported the Cubs are the believed favorites to land Price, who is expected $200 million or more, but are actively shopping elsewhere—reaching out to former Cub Jeff Samardzija, per Phil Rogers of MLB.com, among others—should their Price pursuit fall short.

As Jesse Rogers of ESPN Chicago noted, Zimmermann would cost about half of Price’s tag and leave the Cubs more financial stability to shop for other pieces.

Zimmermann might not have finished as a top-of-the-rotation fixture as he did a year ago, but his market appears far more fluid than that of a Johnny Cueto, who seems to be drawing crickets.

Zimmermann is probably also reassured that his suitors were playoff teams a year ago after being immersed in a Nationals collapse despite being unanimous preseason World Series favorites.

Will Mark Buehrle Retire or Return?

Much has been speculated that 16-year veteran Mark Buehrle will retire this winter. He’ll be 37 before Opening Day and his contract is up with the Toronto Blue Jays after a nice few runs that culminated with an AL East title last year.

A reunion with the Chicago White Sox, where Buehrle spent his first 12 seasons, seems highly unlikely.

As Scott Merkin of MLB.com wrote, the South Siders already have a slew of lefties in their current rotation: “A healthy Buehrle certainly would help any team in regard to the innings and consistent quality starts he’s been able to log for the past 15 seasons, but I don’t envision the White Sox going with five southpaws in their rotation.”

The Blue Jays, who re-signed Marco Estrada to a two-year, $26 million deal earlier this month, aren’t expected to bring back Buehrle, who was 1.1 frames shy of eclipsing the 200 innings mark for the 15th straight season.

He could help a contender on a one-year deal and make one final hoorah. According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, 10 teams are interested in the seemingly ageless lefty, who is a five-time All-Star with a no-hitter and perfect game.

Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun reported, however, that only one team will pique Buehrle’s interest: his hometown St. Louis Cardinals.

The Cardinals are coming off a 100-win season and third straight NL Central title amid the year-round attrition dealt to their beleaguered rotation.

The Redbirds have reliable pieces in Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn and Jaime Garcia, but ace Adam Wainwright will be coming off an Achilles injury and John Lackey may sign elsewhere after denying a $15.8 million qualifying offer.

Buehrle’s upstanding presence would blend swimmingly in the Cardinals’ all-business clubhouse, and he could fill the veteran void should Lackey leave.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

From Zack Greinke to Aroldis Chapman, both the MLB free-agent market and the trade block are stocked with impact arms.

For now, no one knows just where exactly those stars will end up. However, after considering team needs for 2016 and taking into account all the latest buzz, here are some surprise destinations that make sense as potential landing spots.

The list that follows includes the top five free agents from Bleacher Report’s big board and the two most-prominent names on the trade front. Pitchers dominate the list, but there’s also room for a few big hitters who should make a big difference for their new employers in 2016.

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