Tag: Zack Greinke

MLB Free Agents 2016: Latest Rumors and Predictions on Top Talent

There is no shortage of talent in the Major League Baseball free-agent pool, and a World Series champion is starting to make some waves in the market.

Ben Zobrist came to the Kansas City Royals in a midseason trade with the Oakland Athletics and was rumored at one point to have both teams from The Big Apple interested him.

Now, the New York Yankees have backed off, but the New York Mets are still interested, per Ken Davidoff and Dan Martin of the New York Post.

Let’s take a look where Zobrist could end up, as well as two top free-agent pitchers.

Zobrist Could Re-Sign with Royals

Zobrist’s versatility, which includes playing second base and outfield along with switch-hitting, should be enough to have nearly every team interested him in. Just because a player is in demand, though, doesn’t mean he fits with every team. As Martin and Davidoff wrote, believe it or not, the Yankees aren’t willing to shell out the cash for him.

“According to industry sources, the Yankees aren’t willing to spend as much as Zobrist likely will receive on the market, even if he does fill a need in the infield and is a switch-hitter,” the Post reported. 

The Mets are looking to replace National League Championship Series MVP Daniel Murphy after he rejected the team’s one-year, $15.8 million qualifying offer, per Davidoff and Martin, which would open the door for Zobrist.

It would be interesting if he signed with the team that the Royals defeated in the World Series, but don’t look for it to happen.

Per Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com, Zobrist said during the regular season Kansas City was on his list of choices for 2016 and even gave his newborn the middle name Royal.

With most of the core talent returning for the 2016 season, it would make sense for him to re-sign with the Royals.

Prediction: Multiyear deal with the Royals

 

Cueto Testing the Market

Zobrist’s teammate Johnny Cueto played a big role in the Royals’ championship season as well, throwing a two-hit, complete game to give Kansas City a 2-0 lead in the World Series.

However, as soon as Kansas City traded key minor leaguers to get him right before the deadline, there was speculation Cueto was just stopping by for a visit.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote during the playoffs that the Royals had no plans to re-sign the 29-year-old: “The Royals already know they will not be trying to retain Johnny Cueto. They expect his free-agent price tag to go beyond their comfort level and, also, they have seen enough of his inconsistency to be worried about trying to keep him long term anyway.”

Despite some strong playoff starts and a complete-game shutout in his first home start with Kansas City, Cueto was just 4-7 with a 4.76 ERA after the trade.

The Royals don’t shell out contracts like he’s seeking—which varies, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports—and they probably feel like his time in town was worth the trade considering they ended the season as champions.

The Boston Red Sox, on the other hand, make a habit of doing just that. Per Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald, the Red Sox are looking to fill a hole at the front of the rotation via free agency, after trading for All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel.

Cueto, and his 96 career wins and 3.30 ERA, would fill that void nicely.

Prediction: Multiyear deal with the Boston Red Sox

Zach Greinke Commanding a Huge Contract

If you want to make some money, go 19-3 with a 1.66 ERA in a contract year. That’s exactly what Zach Greinke did in 2015 with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Now he is commanding a contract somewhere in the neighborhood of $125-$150 million over five years, according to John Heyman of CBSSports.com.

Greinke is 32, and as Mark Saxon of ESPN.com recently wrote, the Dodgers “probably” won’t look to re-sign him:

The Dodgers are looking to get younger, and another mega-contract makes that more difficult. Also, team president Stan Kasten has a blanket policy against extending pitchers beyond a certain number of major-league pitches and Greinke, who has been durable throughout his career, has thrown more than 33,000.

It can’t be easy to let a guy go who has gone 51-15 the past three seasons, but that appears to be the case.

Greinke is a private person and has given no indication of where he might end up. It’s all speculation at this point, but count on him going to a contender if he doesn’t change his mind and re-sign with Los Angeles.

He forced his way out of Kansas City in 2011 and was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers, who made the postseason that year. He left a year later to sign a six-year deal with the Dodgers.

Prediction: Multiyear deal with the New York Yankees

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Title-Hopeful Dodgers Should Go All In, Sign Both Zack Greinke and David Price

The Los Angeles Dodgers are in the market for starting pitching, and word is they’re willing to go big. They either want to re-sign Zack Greinke or, failing that, sign David Price instead.

But here’s a crazy notion: Why not both Greinke and Price? And by “crazy,” we of course actually mean “plausible and very much worthwhile.”

First, let’s be clear that signing both Greinke and Price doesn’t appear to be the Dodgers’ goal. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports has reported that they’re the top two free agents on the Dodgers’ radar but that there’s only an either/or thing going on. Greinke is their top target, and Price is their “fallback option.”

You can understand why the Dodgers feel they only need to sign one of them. They’re coming off a year in which their starting rotation’s excellent 3.24 ERA had a big hand in delivering a 92-70 record and a third straight NL West title. At the heart of that success was the unrivaled duo of Clayton Kershaw and Greinke, who combined for a 1.94 ERA in nearly 450 innings. 

Re-signing Greinke, who led MLB with a 1.66 ERA, would keep the band together and potentially allow the Dodgers to repeat their 2015 formula in 2016 and beyond. Going for Price, whose 2.45 ERA gave him his second American League ERA title, could have the same effect.

But if one of them would be good, signing both would obviously be even better. Doing so would cost a lot of money, but…hey, these are the Dodgers we’re talking about here.

Modern times being what they are, there’s no mistaking that Greinke and Price are both in line for gigantic contracts. 

In the wake of the seven-year, $210 million contract that Max Scherzer signed last winter, the price for elite starting pitching this winter will be at least $30 million per year. Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors is probably right on in predicting that Price, 30, will sign for seven years and $217 million and that Greinke, 32, will sign for five years and $156 million.

If that’s where Greinke and Price end up, they’ll both be on the hook for $31 million per year. So, if the Dodgers were to ink both, they could be adding a little over $60 million to their 2016 payroll. That’s a lot of money for two players. 

But too much? Maybe not for the Dodgers.

The Dodgers ultimately spent $310 million on payroll in 2015. As of now, Cot’s Baseball Contracts has them on the hook for about $155 million in salary commitments for 2016, and MLB Trade Rumors has them projected to pay about $35 million in arbitration. That adds up to roughly $190 million.

If the Dodgers add Greinke and Price at their projected rates, they’d only be raising their 2016 commitments to $250 million. That’s well short of where they can go, giving them room to make more additions even after dropping a couple king’s ransoms on the kings of the free-agent pitching market.

And this is without even assuming that the Dodgers could backload Greinke‘s and Price’s contracts so that the real money doesn’t kick in until later. With the club’s guaranteed salary commitments set to fall below $100 million as soon as 2018, that’s something they could do.

Another thing to keep in mind: signing Greinke and Price would only cost the Dodgers money.

The Dodgers made Greinke a qualifying offer, and his inevitable rejection of it will tie him to draft pick compensation. But if it’s the Dodgers who sign him, their first-round pick in 2016 (No. 25) will remain theirs. And because Price was traded in 2015, he was barred from receiving a qualifying offer. Ergo, signing both of them would not hinder the Dodgers’ ability to keep adding young talent via the draft.

In all, we have how the Dodgers can sign both Greinke and Price. Now it’s time for the second half of the equation: why they should.

As it has been in previous offseasons, the Dodgers’ goal for this offseason is to make upgrades that will bring them not just more NL West titles, but the elusive World Series title they’ve been hot after ever since Magic Johnson rescued the team from Frank McCourt in 2012.

To do this, the Dodgers could pursue all sorts of options. It’s just hard to think of one better than upgrading their rotation with Greinke and Price.

The Dodgers could upgrade their offense, which may seem like the right idea after it failed them down the stretch in 2015. But President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman said recently, via Eric Stephen of True Blue LA, that he sees the team as being “pretty locked in offensively.” And he’s right.

The Dodgers have solid starters at every position except second base, and what happened at the end of 2015 shouldn’t obscure the fact that there’s plenty of upside to be found in the Dodgers offense. The Dodgers had an elite offense early in 2015 and could again if Yasmani Grandal and Yasiel Puig can stay healthy and young guns Joc Pederson and Corey Seager make good on their potential.

The Dodgers could also upgrade their bullpen, which hasn’t featured a solid bridge to the excellent Kenley Jansen in any of the last three seasons. But outside of Darren O’Day—who ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick says already has the Dodgers’ attention—the free-agent relief market is very thin. Most of the action is on the trade market, where there aren’t many sensible targets for the Dodgers.

As much as the Dodgers would probably love to have Aroldis Chapman, their young pitching (i.e. Julio Urias and Jose De Leon) may not appeal to a Cincinnati Reds team that needs young position players. Moving young talent to the San Diego Padres for Craig Kimbrel could backfire in the future. Andrew Miller is available, but Heyman writes that it may take an ace pitcher to land him from the New York Yankees. At present, the Dodgers only have one of those. And he’s, uh, not available.

So, behold. We’re left looking at Door No. 3: the Dodgers rotation.

If nothing else, the Dodgers rotation needs depth. Kershaw is still on top and is still awesome. But after him, Alex Wood is the Dodgers’ only healthy established starter. After him come Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy, who are both coming off significant injuries.

If the Dodgers were to sign Greinke and Price, they’d be making depth a much more minor concern and, more importantly, upgrading from an elite rotation duo to an elite rotation trio.

How good would a trio of Kershaw, Greinke and Price be? Well, it says a lot that Baseball-Reference.com WAR rates them as three of the league’s eight best pitchers since 2013:

Things don’t look much different if you focus strictly on 2015, as Kershaw, Greinke and Price rated as three of the league’s six best pitchers.

In fact, had they been on the same team in 2015, the Dodgers would have been the first team with three starters with ERAs below 2.50 since they did it in 1985. Even more impressive, they would have been only the third team ever with three pitchers worth at least six WAR.

If a Kershaw, Greinke and Price trio becomes a reality, the Dodgers would have a rotation trio that few teams could match up with. This is certainly true of the National League, where the only competitive unit would be the New York Mets‘ trio of Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard

And lest anyone doubt that the Dodgers need only arrange an elite rotation trio to have a shot at their elusive World Series title, the Mets are a pretty good example to follow.

The Dodgers were the first team the Mets beat on their way to winning the National League pennant, in part because they got excellent pitching out of deGrom, Harvey and Syndergaard. Evidently, that left an impression on Adrian Gonzalez.

“I definitely think that in this day and age you need three front-line starters to go deep in the playoffs,” said the Dodgers first baseman, via Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.

Granted, this is debatable. The Kansas City Royals didn’t need three front-line starters to win the World Series. And as Friedman pointed out to Hernandez, the assorted rosters of this year’s postseason were “constructed very differently.”

What the Mets showed, however, is that a roster constructed around an elite starting trio is indeed capable of going deep into the postseason as long as it has the right supporting cast. In their case, that meant an offense defined by its depth and one shutdown reliever (Jeurys Familia).

That’s a blueprint the Dodgers could follow if they put Greinke and Price behind Kershaw. As we discussed, they already have one shutdown reliever in Jansen, and depth will indeed be their offense’s defining feature if it’s blessed with good health and a couple of breakout performances. If this formula worked for the Mets, it could work for the Dodgers.

To go for it, all the Dodgers have to do is hand out a couple hundred million bucks. And, really, what’s that to them?

 

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.

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Jake Arrieta-Zack Greinke-Jon Lester ‘Big 3’ Would Put Cubs on 2016 Title Path

When the Chicago Cubs hired Joe Maddon last winter, Theo Epstein called it a “unique opportunity” the team just couldn’t pass up. When they signed Jon Lester six weeks later, Maddon said they’d “won the baseball lottery.”

Now it’s time to do it again.

The ace-heavy free-agent market presents the Cubs with another unique opportunity, another chance to win a lottery. And a chance to take everything they accomplished last winter and this past season and push it a huge step further.

All they have to do is sign Zack Greinke.

OK, so signing Greinke isn’t all the Cubs would need to do this winter to make them World Series-capable in 2016. And if they end up not signing Greinke but signing David Price instead, it’s going to be hard to say they’ve lost a lottery.

This issue here isn’t really which ace to sign. Instead, it’s that just like last winter, when the Cubs weren’t necessarily ready to make their big push but saw opportunity and went for it, a real opportunity has appeared.

If they wait, it might not be there again.

There’s no Price among starters eligible for free agency next winter, and there’s certainly no Greinke. So even if the Cubs think they’ll have more money to spend in 12 months, they may not find an ace to spend it on.

And if you think they already have their ace in Lester, or their two aces in Lester and Jake Arrieta, you’re right. But as the Los Angeles Dodgers found out for three straight Octobers with Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, two aces aren’t always enough.

Now if you put Greinke with Lester and Arrieta, you’ve really got something. You have a rotation that doesn’t drop off, the way this year’s did when the Cubs had to go to Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel in the playoffs. Those two combined for an 8.31 ERA and just 13 total innings in four combined starts.

The Cubs still hit enough to get past the St. Louis Cardinals (after Arrieta stuffed the Pittsburgh Pirates in the Wild Card Game). But faced with the New York Mets rotation in the NLCS, the Cubs got nowhere, with Lester and Arrieta getting outpitched on the road, and Hendricks and Hammel not able to recover at home.

The Cubs and Mets went about building their teams in opposite ways, with the Mets stockpiling great young arms while the Cubs loaded up on big-time young bats. Before they met in the NLCS, Mets general manager Sandy Alderson thought back to the unsuccessful pitcher-for-hitter trade talks the two teams had.

“We’re happy we didn’t make a trade,” he said. “And they probably feel the same way.”

The Cubs probably feel even better about it than the Mets, even though the Mets were the team that ended up playing in the World Series. Now both teams are trying to figure out how to win in 2016, and while the free-agent market doesn’t offer what the Mets still need—a middle-of-the-order hitter who can play in the middle infield or center field—it offers exactly what the Cubs could use.

Epstein told reporters Monday he may not have as much money to spend as everyone else thought he would.

“I think if we want to do two [big] things, we have to get pretty creative,” he said, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. “Even if we want to do one really big thing, we have to get creative.”

Greinke would be one really big thing. The right-hander opted out of the final three seasons of a contract set to pay him $24 million in 2016 and another $47 million in the two years after that. He’s not signing cheap, and there will be plenty of competition.

But there have also been suggestions the Dodgers, who don’t need to get creative to offer gigantic contracts, do have an issue with giving long-term deals to pitchers in their 30s. Greinke turned 32 in October.

The Cubs thus could find an opening to get a guy whose 2015 ERA (1.66) was the fourth lowest of any pitcher since 1968 (behind one season of Dwight Gooden and two of Greg Maddux). They could team him with Arrieta, whose 1.77 ERA was the lowest of any Cubs pitcher since 1919, and with Lester, whose 3.34 ERA only looks bloated in comparison to the other two.

Put those three together, and the Cubs would have a clear path back to the playoffs. No one ever has a clear path to the World Series (don’t Cub fans know that?), but with Greinke, Lester, Arrieta and all those bats, the 2016 Cubs would have a real chance.

Epstein told the reporters at the general managers meetings that the Cubs are “going to have more money down the line than we have right now.” Fine, but the free-agent market down the line isn’t going to have a Greinke and a Price.

The Cubs showed last winter they could recognize an opportunity and adjust.

Now they can do it again.

 

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

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Of Dollars and Deals: Previewing a Most Intriguing 2015-16 MLB Offseason

A former general manager in Philadelphia has become the first base coach in Boston (Ruben Amaro), a former GM who became an interim manager in Miami was fired and told he couldn’t return to his old GM job that had been promised (Dan Jennings), and the GM who pulled off a second-half miracle in Toronto (Alex Anthopoulos) walked away from a five-year extension offer because he couldn’t stomach working with the Blue Jays’ new president (Mark Shapiro).

Meanwhile, a deal for one manager in Washington (Bud Black) fell through when the Nationals essentially offered newbie terms (one year? Really?), and the Yankees fanboy owner in Miami nearly strained his groin leaping at the chance to grab the ex-Dodgers skipper and former Yankees first baseman as his new manager (Don Mattingly).

Storylines for the hit television show Scandal?

Um, not quite.

Not since the Bizarro episode of the No. 1 Mets fan’s old show (Jerry Seinfeld) have things been this backwards around the grand old game, which only leaves one giant question: What else is sneaking up to the wintertime on-deck circle?

Well, I can’t guarantee that the one-time rock star Padres GM (A.J. Preller) won’t hire a Kindergarten Cop to help his new boy wonder manager (Andy Green), but I can guarantee that what follows is much of what we’ll be talking about during the next two or three months.

A road map to this winter’s Hot Stove League:

 

Most Intriguing Team

The Boston Red Sox.

With new president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski now running things, don’t expect the Red Sox to be shy this winter. Industry wonks fully expect the Red Sox to make a big splash in the free-agent starting pitching market after last year’s failed run at Jon Lester.

Boston’s plan to collect workhorses (Wade Miley, Rick Porcello, etc.) instead of show horses for its rotation landed the 2015 Sox in the glue factory. There is no question that the Sox need an ace, and with resources even deeper than he had in Detroit, Dombrowski could tap into his relationship with David Price. And if that doesn’t turn out, the Sox could tap into senior vice president Allard Baird’s relationship with Zack Greinke. Baird was the GM in Kansas City when Greinke was there, and the two are close.

The Red Sox would love to trade Hanley Ramirez, who is so difficult that he doesn’t even listen to himself. When he was with the Dodgers, the Hanley Man proudly plastered a sticker reading “Attitude is Everything. Pick a Good One” above his locker. With this guy? Yeah, right.

 

Most Intriguing Team, Bronx Edition

OK, so if the Red Sox are the most intriguing team, what about the Yankees?

In recent years, the Yankees have shown a disinclination to push their luxury tax to any further heights. Indications are that will continue, which means New York GM Brian Cashman will spend a lot more time talking to Jeff Samardzija than to David Price or Johnny Cueto.

Masahiro Tanaka (mostly) made it through the year with his elbow intact, Michael Pineda is a force much of the time, and Luis Severino left the Bronx wanting more. CC Sabathia was headed into alcohol rehabilitation the last we heard from him, and as the sun sets on his career, it is hard to say what he will provide for the Yankees in 2016.    

What this club needs is an upgrade at second base, badly. They could look crosstown, where Daniel Murphy spent part of October imitating Babe Ruth and then spent the World Series imitating a rusty gate. Howie Kendrick, the former Angel turned Dodger, is a free agent as well.

 

Most Intriguing Player

Right-hander Johnny Cueto.

Last July the Royals traded for Johnny B. Ace, but too often he was only Johnny B. Goode, or Johnny B. Mediocre. That is, until Game 2 of the World Series, when he was brilliant in a complete-game, 7-1 victory.

Whether that was the exclamation point on a career resume that could score Cueto something close to Max Scherzer‘s $15 million annual salary over five or six years, we’re about to find out. When Cueto went into a second-half funk, there were whispers that he was homesick for Cincinnati. The trade was hard on him.

What the Royals eventually learned is that this is one sensitive cat, and rowdy road crowds (Toronto in the ALCS, Pittsburgh in the Wild Card Game a couple of years ago) can get into his head. Which is why the Royals arranged their rotation to ensure that Cueto pitched at home in the comforts of Kauffman Stadium in the World Series, starting the aforementioned Game 2 and, had the Series lasted beyond five games, Game 6.

When he’s on, Cueto is one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. When his sensitive nature takes over, he can get rattled enough to drop the ball on the mound. As his market develops, look for the Giants, Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees, Astros and Diamondbacks, among others, to check in.

 

The Wreck That Is the Nationals

Just three years ago, the Nationals posted the best record in the major leagues and looked like locks to at least play in a World Series, if not win one, in the very near future.

Since then, this vast collection of talent with no soul has shifted into reverse. You wonder why this year’s team disappointed? How in the world it could have acquired a buffoon like Jonathan Papelbon at the deadline? How a manager could not notice Papelbon trying to choke Bryce Harper in the middle of a game?

All of that was disgusting enough.

Now, instead of digging out of the humiliation, the Nationals are digging in.

The collapse of the deal for Bud Black to manage the Nationals speaks volumes about this organization and a culture so misguided that at this point, MapQuest couldn’t even help point it in the right direction.

The initial offer to Black, according to Bleacher Report sources, was one year at $1.6 million. When Black rightfully balked, the Nats increased the offer to two years at a salary lower than Black made when he was managing the Padres.

Though the dollars were a joke, the worst part of the entire thing was the initial offer of one year. What that screams in neon letters is, “This organization is not committed to you.” Former manager Matt Williams had completely lost the clubhouse, so the new manager has much heavy lifting to do, and that is impossible on a one-year deal because the players will just read that as a ship passing through the night.

There is industry speculation that the Nationals could trade Stephen Strasburg this winter. Starters Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister, center fielder Denard Span and shortstop Ian Desmond all are free agents this winter.

It is impossible to read the one-year offer to Black as anything other than that of a confused organization unsure of its near-term plans. Is a fire sale forthcoming? A major overhaul of the roster?

Into this mess sails manager Dusty Baker. Good luck. He’ll need it.

 

The Heat Index: Pitchers

Top starting pitchers on the free-agent market:

David Price: In the past, he’s waxed rhapsodic about the Cubs, and his former manager in Tampa Bay, Joe Maddon, is in Chicago. But with the Cubs already paying a small fortune to Lester, it’s difficult to see them paying Price, too. The Red Sox, Dodgers and Giants are among those expected to pursue him hard. And if St. Louis jumps in, the Cardinals could become instant favorites.

Zack GreinkeBy the time he signs with somebody, Greinke could have a second Cy Young Award on his resume. The Dodgers have a chance to re-sign him at a significantly higher deal than the one he just opted out of—they’ve got the money, and he likes it there. If not, the Red Sox and Giants will be among the suitors.

Johnny Cueto: Game 2 of the World Series will be a big selling point.

Jordan Zimmermann: Overshadowed in the Nats‘ rotation by Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, Zimmermann has thrown 195 or more innings in each of the past four seasons and went 13-10 with a 3.66 ERA in 33 starts last season.

 

The Hit List: Hitters

Top hitters on the market:

Yoenis CespedesWill he score a $150 million deal? Not from the New York Mets, he won’t. Sensational in the second half in leading the Mets to the NL East title, Cespedes wasn’t the same hitter after he took a fastball to his left hand in a Sept. 30 game against the Phillies. Then, last we saw of him in the World Series, he fouled a fastball off of a kneecap and limped off the field. What is working in the Mets’ favor right now is that there do not appear to be a lot of teams that will be in his market.

Jason Heyward: The Cardinals would like to re-sign him. And they probably should; otherwise, that Shelby Miller trade might haunt them.

Justin Upton: Streaky hitter who can carry a team for two weeks and then disappear for two weeks. With Carlos Beltran fading, the Yankees could really use him.

Chris Davis: The last two years that he’s played in 160 games, he’s hit 47 homers (2015) and 53 homers (2013). In just 127 games in 2014, he hit 26 homers. He’s 29 and becoming a free agent just as many teams are looking for offense.

Ben Zobrist: He’s played on winning teams in Kansas City and Tampa Bay and is incredibly versatile, able to play second base, shortstop, third base and the outfield. The one downside is he turns 35 next May.

 

World Champions: What About the Royals’ Winter?

The business of baseball never stops, but it especially brings the reality of a cold winter home to the World Series champions. This year, it is Kansas City’s turn, and the Royals are facing the loss of four key players: outfielder Alex Gordon, the versatile Ben Zobrist, ace Johnny Cueto and closer Greg Holland.

It should be noted that the Royals have never paid more than $55 million for any free agent. That was for right-hander Gil Meche ahead of the 2007 season—and four years later, unable to perform up to his own expectations, he graciously walked away and let the Royals keep the remaining $12 million on his contract.

 

Ex-and-Future World Champions: What About the Giants’ Winter?

Well, if they stick to their modern win-in-even-years script, the Giants will enter 2016 as World Series favorites, right? After all, they’ve won it all in 2010, 2012 and 2014.

If last year’s pursuit of Jon Lester is any indication, as well as their pitching-rich structure under GM Brian Sabean (Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner, Jake Peavy, Tim Hudson), expect the Giants to be in on David Price, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann, among others this winter. Re-signing Mike Leake isn’t out of the question, either.

 

Who Leads the Dodgers?

There is just one managerial opening left, and it is in Dodger Stadium. Industry speculation is that farm director and former outfielder Gabe Kapler is the favorite to land the job, being that his philosophy and thoughts are copacetic with the analytic-strong brain trust of Andrew Friedman, Josh Byrnes and Farhan Zaidi.

Dave Roberts, most recently the Padres’ bench coach, interviewed very well the other day, according to Bleacher Report sources. And bench coach Tim Wallach and third base coach Ron Roenicke from Don Mattingly‘s staff are possibilities. The Dodgers also interviewed Nebraska coach and former Angels outfielder Darin Erstad.

And now that the deal with the Nationals fell apart, Bud Black remains available.

 

The Daniel Murphy Question

Fortunately, Mets GM Sandy Alderson appeared OK after fainting while meeting with the New York media on Wednesday. Tabloid Fever, perhaps? He was answering a question at the time about outfielder Juan Lagares, not whether the Mets would make a $15.8 million qualifying offer to second baseman Daniel Murphy.

That was the hot topic a couple of weeks ago when the Mets were meeting the Chicago Cubs in the NLCS and Murphy was in the process of slamming home runs in six consecutive postseason games. Then came a look at his fielding in the World Series, and the question sort of answered itself. The Mets can’t make that qualifying offer to Murphy, can they?

 

Stephen Strasburg and This Winter’s Trade Market

The Nationals could deal right-hander Stephen Strasburg, who is a year away from free agency and surely won’t sign a hometown discount deal with the Nationals given that his agent is Scott Boras. The Nats at least listened on Strasburg last winter, according to sources, and industry speculation is that they could move him this winter. Also, look for them to deal closer Drew Storen, who badly needs a fresh start.

The Dodgers could trade outfielder Yasiel Puig as they continue to transform the clubhouse culture there post-Matt Kemp. With Enrique Hernandez and Joc Pederson emerging in the outfield, and with Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier there, Puig could be the trade bait that brings another much-needed starting pitcher.

The Cubs could fill a starting pitching need by dealing infielder Starlin Castro, who has been displaced at shortstop by Addison Russell. By cheerfully moving to second base, Castro only helped his trade value.

The Padres badly need to retool their roster and will shop closer Craig Kimbrel and starter James Shields. They will listen on starters Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner.

The Reds likely will deal closer Aroldis Chapman after shopping him last July, and lots of teams will ask them about third baseman Todd Frazier.

The Red Sox picked up the option on right-hander Clay Buchholz, but don’t be surprised if they deal him away as Dombrowski looks to remake the rotation.

With Alex Anthopoulos splitting from Toronto, indications are that the Blue Jays may trim salary, and it could begin with Troy Tulowitzki, who is guaranteed $98 million through 2020.

The Rockies, after breaking up their one-two punch last summer with the Tulowitzki deal, could follow that by trading outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. Colorado is a team badly in need of a fresh start.

 

Don’t Do That Again

Reminder: We’re coming up on the one-year anniversary (Nov. 28) when Oakland gifted Toronto by trading Josh Donaldson to the Blue Jays.

Donaldson, of course, is expected to be named AL MVP later this month.

So now what do the quick-trigger A’s do this winter? Trade away ace Sonny Gray? Believe this: Many teams will put on the full-court press to acquire Gray, and don’t be surprised if the Red Sox and Yankees are among them.

 

Will the Padres be Wild and Crazy?

Last winter, there was no deal GM A.J. Preller wouldn’t have made, including swapping 12 fish tacos for a brand new basketball. It was riveting. It was refreshing. It was, ultimately, all sizzle and no steak. The Padres finished 74-88, worse than they did in 2014 (77-85).

Don’t expect Preller to command the spotlight this winter to the degree he did last year. But among the many reasons why the Padres were several tacos short of a combination plate this season was a gaping hole at shortstop. The Padres will look at free agents Ian Desmond and Asdrubal Cabrera, and this week the White Sox non-tendered Alexei Ramirez.

If the free-agent market isn’t the ticket, the Padres could acquire a shortstop via trade, and they will be open for business all winter. Closer Craig Kimbrel and right-handed starter Tyson Ross are their best chips. They will shop starter James Shields hard, and Andrew Cashner is another possibility.

 

Two Under-the-Radar Free Agents Who Could Turn Things Around

Toronto’s Marco Estrada went 13-8 with a 3.13 ERA in 34 appearances (28 starts) and threw 181 innings.

Texas’ Yovani Gallardo went 13-11 with a 3.42 ERA in 33 starts and threw 184.1 innings.

For those clubs that are in need of pitching but don’t have the bankroll to chase Price and Cueto, Estrada and Gallardo are pretty good alternatives.

 

Too-Early Predictions: The 2016 World Series Winner Will Be…

If the Cubs make a couple of right moves to improve their rotation, look out. We know their core of young players featuring Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Jorge Soler, Kyle Schwarber and others is legit. Let’s see…add, hmmm, David Price, or Johnny Cueto, or even a couple of second-tier arms for better depth, and the Cubs could be in business.

 

Scott Miller covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Scott on Twitter and talk baseball.

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L.A. Metro Offers Zack Greinke a Free Lifetime of Bus Rides to Stay with Dodgers

According to Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles TimesLos Angeles Dodgers ace Zack Greinke opted out of his contract Wednesday, becoming a free agent and opening the door for bigger money—and apparently a free bus pass, courtesy of L.A. Metro.

Yep. The public transit company offered the pitcher a lifetime of free public transportation use in Los Angeles County if he re-signs with the Dodgers…plus, you know, whatever financial terms the franchise actually offers him.

Surefire plan, L.A. Metro. Well done.

[LA Metro, h/t SB Nation]

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Zack Greinke Opts Out of Dodgers Contract: Latest Comments and Reaction

After a career season that could very well result in NL Cy Young Award honors, Los Angeles Dodgers ace Zack Greinke opted out of his contract Wednesday, thus making him a free agent.

According to Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, the 32-year-old veteran decided to forego the final three years of his contract in an effort to land a megadeal similar to those signed by Max Scherzer of the Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs ace Jon Lester.

The move makes perfect financial sense from Greinke’s perspective, as the three-time All Star went 19-3 with an NL-best 1.66 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 200 strikeouts in a campaign that arguably saw him outperform teammate and three-time Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw.

Greinke did precisely what was expected Wednesday, and while Bob Nightengale of USA Today believes the dominant righty will re-sign with the Dodgers, he concedes that the rival San Francisco Giants have a chance to swoop in.

Even though a return to L.A. seems to be the likeliest result on the surface, Greinke didn’t exactly inspire confidence when asked about remaining with the Dodgers following the team’s elimination from the playoffs.

“That would be nice,” Greinke said, per Shaikin. “I guess that is my whole response.”

The Dodgers have struggled in terms of making a legitimate run toward the World Series, but as the New York Mets proved this past season, having elite starting pitching can give a team a major leg up on the competition.

Los Angeles had that with the one-two punch of Kershaw and Greinke, and there is little doubt that losing Greinke would be extremely difficult to recover from.

It is a catch-22 situation since Greinke is unlikely to replicate what he did in 2015 and the Dodgers will almost certainly have to offer more than they would like, but that is the price teams must pay in order to retain elite arms.

 

Follow @MikeChiari on Twitter.

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MLB Rumors: Latest Buzz as Offseason Begins

The World Series may be in the books, but the MLB offseason should be as lively and dramatic in the four short months before pitchers and catchers report for spring training.

There are plenty of marquee free agents hitting the market—139 total, according to the MLBPA, up 18 from 2014—with plenty of shuffling afoot among the baseball landscape. 

Will the four blue-chip starting pitchers get the nine-figure deals they’ll seek? How much turnover will the champion Kansas City Royals endure? Which team will be last year’s San Diego Padres in making the most surprise splashes?

Winter is coming, but the baseball offseason is heating up, and here is the latest buzz to prepare.

Marlins Won’t Pursue Top Aces Greinke, Price

The Miami Marlins will not contend to claim top starting pitchers such as Zack Greinke and David Price, according to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com.

Both are expected to command deals exceeding $200 million, which doesn’t necessarily fit into the Marlins payroll, currently at $31,450,000, per Spotrac. Though that figure will assuredly increase before Opening Day, the Marlins splashed last November when inking superstar Giancarlo Stanton to a backloaded, 13-year deal for $325 million.

The report that Greinke and Price won’t be in the Marlins mold surfaced the same day that Miami ace José Fernandez turned down an undisclosed multiyear deal months before returning from Tommy John surgery in July, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald

Jackson reported team president David Samson said negotiations dwindled over money, not years:

He was offered what we thought was a very fair, tremendous amount of money. I don’t believe he had any interest in having another offer [this winter], but we always will talk. He is ours for three years at a minimum. Building around Jose and [Giancarlo] Stanton is two smart things to do, but it takes two people to sign a contract.

As Samson noted, Fernandez, 23, cannot hit free agency until after the 2018 season, though he is arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason, per Rotoworld. When healthy, he’s one of the best in the game—22-9 with a 2.40 ERA, 1.014 WHIP and 10.5 K/9. 

Under new manager Don Mattingly, the Marlins should see increased success but could be handicapped by starting pitching—particularly in the ace-full National League East facing remarkable rotations within the New York Mets and Washington Nationals. 

That’s not exactly what vocal owner Jeffrey Loria hopes to hear as his team seeks its first winning season since 2009. As Mark Bowman of MLB.com showed, Miami hasn’t been a home for stability:

The Marlins not pursuing Price or Greinke doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t chase a second-tier free-agent starter such as Jeff Samardzija, Scott Kazmir or Doug Fister. That trio each hopes to cash a nine-figure deal, though ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian indicated the three “are going to get paid, but maybe not as much as they’d like.”

The Marlins could also be preparing for the hefty bill in the coming years for Fernandez, a client of Scott Boras, who notoriously hauls in heaps of cash for his clients and rarely ever agrees to terms before they hit free agency. 

 

Alex Gordon to Opt Out of KC

The heart of the Royals clubhouse could be on his way out of Kansas City, as Alex Gordon is expected to decline his $14 million option and hit what should be a hungry market for the outfielder. 

Gordon is coming off a four-year, $37 million contract, per Spotrac, and CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reported he will likely get a similar offer in years but with a large uptick in dollars. 

Gordon, who turns 32 in February, has a respectable career slash line of .269/.348/.435 and has averaged 17.1 home runs, 68.7 RBI and 77.5 runs in the seven seasons over his nine-year career he’s played at least 100 games. 

But his pedigree is rooted in defense. Gordon posted an eye-popping .995 fielding percentage with just five errors over the life of his last contract, according to baseball-reference.com, which was such a focal factor in the Royals’ success. 

Heyman reported the Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros as possible landing spots should the Royals not be able to re-sign him. 

Christopher Smith of MassLive.com also speculated the Red Sox could utilize Gordon under new president Dave Dombrowski, who admitted to seeking a fourth outfielder though outright committing to Jackie Bradley Jr. and Rusney Castillo to go along with sure starter Mookie Betts. The Red Sox are coming off a last-place finish and will be active to rebound this offseason, and Gordon could certainly help.

But Gordon has said he wants to be back in Kansas City, where he’s spent his entire career, per the Associated Press (h/t KCTV5 Kansas City):

“I want to be back, trust me,” Gordon said. “This is my home. I love Kansas City. I love the fans. I love everything about Kansas City. I couldn’t see myself anywhere else. So, I hope it works out.” 

While his opting out may say otherwise, Heyman added perspective that could give KC fans optimism:

However, the Royals are hoping to keep him, quite likely with an offer of about four years. Since he accepted a team-friendly four-year deal last time, there is reason to hope. And while he got only four while in his 20s, he can probably find five if he’s open to leaving.

Gordon faces a tough decision, as Kansas City is where he hopes to be, and the Royals will be contenders again next year. But if he sacrifices, he’ll have a thicker wallet to lean on. 

Shark to Big Apple?

Jeff Samardzija is expected to receive a one-year, $15.8 million qualifying offer from the Chicago White Sox, according to Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com, but he’s likely to reject that and hit the market. 

The 30-year-old right-hander has maintained his desire to hit free agency since being traded from the Chicago Cubs to the Oakland Athletics in the middle of last season.   

However, Samardzija won’t be nearly as coveted as he was then, coming off an awful 2015 in which he went 11-13 with a career-high 4.96 ERA, career-low 6.9 K/9 and MLB-worst 228 hits allowed. 

Once thought a nine-figure pitcher, that seems a stretch. He certainly won’t get that from the White Sox, who have a stable of southpaws in Chris Sale, Carlos Rodon and Jose Quintana to build around. 

Hayes noted as many as eight teams could be in the mix: the Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros and Texas Rangers. 

Heyman noted an alliance with the Yankees could manifest based on old roots:

Former Cubs GM Jim Hendry, a Yankees executive, is a big voice in the organization now, leading to even more speculation Samardzija will be on the agenda. Hendry was the one who plucked Samardzija out of Notre Dame, and gave him a $10 million signing bonus for the Cubs (a wise call in hindsight). 

ESPN’s Buster Olney, however, doesn’t necessarily agree:

The Yankees will likely be in the market for starters in free agency to surround Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and C.C. Sabathia but may not necessarily chase the big-ticket item. 

Samardzija is coming off a career-worst season, but perhaps playing in a contending clubhouse for once—a half-season with Oakland notwithstanding—could be just the change he needs to return to dominant form.

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How Giants Stealing Zack Greinke from Under Dodgers Would Impact NL West

Zack Greinke‘s original team, the Kansas City Royals, just won a World Series, helped in no small part by his decision to talk his way out of town five years ago.

Next questions: How does Greinke win one for himself? And how do the San Francisco Giants go about keeping their every-other-year thing going, setting themselves up to win in 2016 the way they did in 2010, 2012 and 2014?

Well, stealing Greinke away from the rival Los Angeles Dodgers wouldn’t hurt. It wouldn’t hurt the Giants, and it wouldn’t hurt Greinke.

It would only hurt the Dodgers, but that’s kind of what the Giants are in business to do, isn’t it?

This World Series is over, and free agency is just about to begin. Greinke isn’t even a free agent yet, not until he goes through the formality of opting out of the final three years and $71 million of the six-year, $147 million contract he signed with the Dodgers three winters ago.

He’s going to opt out, not because he hates Dodger blue or Southern California, and certainly not because he doesn’t want $71 million. He’s going to opt out because he’s coming off an historic season and there’s absolutely no doubt he’ll get more years and more dollars from whatever team signs him.

We know the dollars are key, and not just because they always are. Greinke is maybe the most honest player ever, and when he talked to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com a few months after signing with the Dodgers, he said the money was “obviously the No. 1 thing.”

If the big-bucks Dodgers really want to keep Greinke now, it’s hard to see how the Giants could stop them. Then again, with Greinke having turned 32 in October, there’s a chance Andrew Friedman’s analytics wizards will let the numbers dictate a less-than-top-dollar final offer. They could leave the door open for San Francisco, which Heyman and others have tabbed as a possible Greinke suitor.

It makes perfect sense, for him and for them. The Giants need another top starter to pair with Madison Bumgarner, much the way the Dodgers paired Greinke with Clayton Kershaw. Greinke needs a team with the money to pay him and a roster that says “win now.”

Money may well be “the No. 1 thing” for Greinke, but we also know from his past decisions that winning matters. He pushed for a deal away from the Kansas City Royals five years ago because he was tired of losing and didn’t see things changing, and he basically nixed a trade to the Washington Nationals because he thought with what the Nationals would need to give up to get him, they wouldn’t have enough left to win.

He ended up going to the Milwaukee Brewers in a deal that worked out for everyone, but especially for the Royals. With Greinke, the Brewers came within two wins of going to the World Series for the first time since 1982. With the players they got directly or indirectly in the Greinke deal (Alcides Escobar and Lorenzo Cain directly, Wade Davis and James Shields indirectly), the Royals have been to the World Series two straight years and just won it for the first time since 1985.

You could say Greinke was wrong when he didn’t see a chance to win with the Royals, but you could also say the Royals don’t get there without trading him. In any case, it’s hard to see how they still would have had him now, since they weren’t giving him a $147 million contract.

Regardless, what’s of greater concern now is where Greinke is going to pitch in 2016 and beyond.

The Giants would need to stretch their budget a little to make it work for them, but in this case they should. As one scout who follows the National League West closely said Monday, “There’s only one guy out there who’s a real game-changer for the Giants, and it’s Greinke. Get him, and you’re going to get [to the playoffs].”

Put Greinke with Bumgarner, and you’ve got Greinke/Kershaw but with a better supporting cast in the rotation and a better bullpen. You’ve also destroyed the rival Dodgers’ biggest strength and sent them scrambling into a free-agent market, where David Price is perhaps the only comparable starting pitcher.

You’ve changed the NL West, which is basically about the Giants and the Dodgers until one of the other three teams takes the significant steps necessary to compete.

You may even have changed baseball, because while Greinke proved to be a good postseason pitcher in his three seasons with the Dodgers, Bumgarner has already shown he’s a great one.

The Giants won the World Series three times in five years, without ever having an overwhelming team everyone thought would win. Add Greinke, and maybe they have that team as they try to make it four titles in seven years.

And if he has to beat the Royals in a World Series to do it, so much the better.

 

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball. 

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MLB Free Agent Jordan Zimmermann No Longer a True ‘Blank Check’ Ace?

There was a time, about a year ago, when Jordan Zimmermann was to be the prince of this winter’s dynamite class of free-agent starting pitchers. 

The right-hander was coming off a career year last offseason, putting up the best marks of his career in terms of ERA, ERA+, strikeouts, WHIP, FIP and strikeout-to-walk ratio. He finished fifth in National League Cy Young Award voting for the Washington Nationals and earned a second consecutive All-Star selection.

With one more season to produce before entering free agency, it seemed Zimmermann just had to stay healthy in 2015 to become the head of the class. Another season like the one he had in 2014, and he would become the first Tommy John survivor to put a nine-figure salary next to his name.

Well, Zimmermann stayed healthy enough. He just did not produce anywhere near the ace-like numbers expected of him this past season, and he became a fairly mediocre pitcher with a 3.66 ERA, a pedestrian 110 ERA+ and his strikeout rate dropped significantly from 22.8 percent in 2014, a career high, to 19.7 percent, good for 48th among qualified major league starters in 2015.

“Feel like I took the ball every time they asked, did what I could,” Zimmermann told reporters in late September, glossing over his career with the Nationals. “Some days I didn’t have it, some days I was good.”

Zimmermann needed to be better than good to land top-tier money this offseason, the kind that allows an ace to fill out some team’s blank check. With a deep pool of starting pitchers on the market this offseason, his numbers in a contract year do not stand out—his 3.66 ERA was easily a career worst for any of his full seasons—and leave him bunched in with the likes of Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake and maybe Yovani Gallardo, if not just a tick above that trio.

Whoever might reside in Zimmermann’s echelon, one thing is certain: He pitched himself out of the group containing David Price, Zack Greinke and maybe even Johnny Cueto, depending on how the market views Cueto’s late-season/postseason struggles and injury concerns. Price and Greinke, who is expected to opt out of his current contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers within the next week, will command the majority of the money on the market.

Price, the ace of the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays this past season, has a 2.90 ERA and 133 ERA+ over his last four seasons while averaging more than 200 strikeouts a year in that time. He turned 30 in late August, but he has been durable throughout his career, is left-handed and remains one of the game’s true aces. That resume, despite his 5.46 ERA over his last nine postseason outings, could command a deal in the $180-200 million range.

Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors thinks Price’s goal could be to exceed the $215 million extension Clayton Kershaw signed with the Dodgers, and that is certainly a possibility considering Max Scherzer got $210 million from Washington as a 30-year-old last winter.

Greinke, who will be leaving three years and $71 million on the table when he opts out, could look to raise his average annual value with a four- or five-year deal, or he could try to get as much as six years and more than the $155 million, similar to what the Chicago Cubs gave Jon Lester last offseason.

Greinke is 32, but he has relatively no injury issues, could win a Cy Young Award for his work this past season—19 wins, 1.66 ERA, 225 ERA+, 0.844 WHIP—and is not the kind of ace that relies on a power fastball, so a sixth year might not scare away every suitor.

Postseasons matter, though. That could work against Price and Cueto, who struggled down the stretch of the regular season and was wildly inconsistent in the playoffs for the Kansas City Royals until his complete-game gem in Game 2 of the World Series.

Cueto also missed time this summer with elbow stiffness and discomfort, but seems to have ended the World Series in ace form. However, everything considered, his price could be affected unless Price signs early and for a ton of money, which would drive up numbers for other guys. 

With Price and Cueto struggling during this postseason, Zimmermann’s stock could see a boost without throwning a pitch in October. Even though his summer was not as great as expected, he could pick up the money lost, if any, by those two.

Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal believes the San Francisco Giants will stick their toes in Zimmermann’s pool, but he also thinks the Wisconsin native would like to stay in the Midwest. That puts the Cubs and possibly the Tigers into play. 

The Dodgers, New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are going to have interest, obviously, as might teams like the Arizona Diamondbacks, Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels. Zimmermann will be a thick market. 

He is no longer among the best the market has to offer, and his ace title has been stripped from his negotiating leverage. Still, whatever deal Zimmermann signs will go well beyond $100 million, and while hitting the $150 million mark is iffy, if he regains something close to the form he showed in 2014, Zimmermann will end up being one of the steals of this offseason.

 

Advanced stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted. 

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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How Zack Greinke Opt-Out, Possible Exit Could Shake Up the Dodgers’ Plans

The shake-up in Los Angeles has already started. 

The Dodgers dropped the biggest, though hardly the most surprising, news of the day early Thursday morning when they and manager Don Mattingly mutually decided to separate. That is how the team has termed its parting with its manager, who was under contract through next season.

While this is a relatively significant happening for the Dodgers, it is far from their biggest decision as the offseason approaches for an organization entering its second winter under the direction of the Whiz Kid Dream Team—president Andrew Friedman, general manager Farhan Zaidi and senior VP of baseball operations Josh Byrnes, among others.

Zack Greinke’s pending and probable opt-out is easily the team’s biggest offseason event to this point. He is one of the game’s true aces and helped carry the Dodgers to a third consecutive National League West title in 2015 with arguably the best season of his stellar career.

Greinke has until the third day after the World Series to opt out of his current six-year, $147 million contract, of which he just completed his third season. He has $71 million remaining on the current deal, but he would get a significant raise—possibly more than 100 percent—on the open market. Team sources have told Bleacher Report they fully expect Greinke to become a free agent via that clause, and that belief has been reported by other sources as well.

How Greinke’s negotiations with the Dodgers, and other teams, play out over the next couple of months will have a seismic effect on the free-agent market and the Dodgers’ future.

“We’d love to keep him,” Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez told reporters, including MLB.com’s Lyle Spencer, after the team’s Game 5 loss to the New York Mets in the NL Division Series. “He’s a big part of this team. He’s been incredible the whole time he’s been here. We love him. We hope he opts to stay.”

Because Greinke has been so incredible in his three seasons with the Dodgers, and because he is coming off a historic season—1.66 ERA, 19-3 record, 225 ERA+, 0.844 WHIP—his opt-out could not come at a better time. It is totally reasonable to expect Greinke to command a deal of five or six years, and something in the area of $150 million is not so far-fetched, even with the known risks that accompany signing a pitcher entering his age-32 season.

Greinke openly spoke about the Dodgers offering him the most money as the reason why he ended up with them prior to the 2013 season, so there is little reason to think he would not make his next decision based on money. If that is the case, it is hard to see any organization being able or willing to outbid the Dodgers, who know better than anyone what Greinke’s production, even as it starts to decline, means to a rotation. Then again, the Dodgers’ analytical front office knows the inherent drawbacks of being saddled with an aging and/or declining player who is owed gobs of dough.

If Greinke were willing to sign a shorter deal, say for four years, for less overall money, say $110 million for an average annual value of $27.5 million, the Dodgers might be fine with sliding that contract across the table—the AAV of that deal would be more than a six-year, $150 million one ($25 million). Also, Greinke, not known to hold his tongue or lie, thinks quite highly of his current organization.

“It’s got to be the best franchise in the game, I would think,” Greinke told reporters the night the team’s season ended. “They’re in a great situation.”

But what if Greinke wants something new? What if the Dodgers decide Greinke’s age and market value aren’t worth their nine figures? Then what?

Well, the Dodgers have plenty of other options.

This offseason’s free-agent market is loaded with starting pitching, most notably David Price. The problem with Price is that he could command around $200 million despite his shaky postseason performances, and the Dodgers already have an ace with a contract exceeding that mark in Clayton Kershaw. If the Dodgers were willing to go that route with Price, they might as well re-up with Greinke—signing both is highly unlikely, though not totally out of the question for a team that annually draws more than 3 million fans and has one of the largest television rights deals in the game.

If not Price or Greinke, then the Dodgers could pick from the likes of Johnny Cueto or Jordan Zimmermann. And if they want to sign another, Scott Kazmir, Jeff Samrardzija, Mike Leake and Yovani Gallardo are possibilities.

What is known for sure is that the Dodgers cannot and will not sit idle. They already parted with Mattingly, and parting with Greinke without replacing his production would be a step in the wrong direction, even with the underrated Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy expected back in the rotation at some point next season and Alex Wood expected to occupy a spot.

The Dodgers will not win with Kershaw and a cast of backup singers. They need another co-ace to pair with him. Who that might be all depends on how the market looks in about a month, and by being one of the heavy hitters, the Dodgers are likely to help shape it by attacking either Greinke or Price, or both or neither.

Because of their money, current standing and future outlook, the decision is theirs. And it will be their most critical of this offseason.

 

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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