Kuzul

For all the numbers, data, formulas and eyeball scouting, the decision-makers in Major League Baseball are still human—sometimes.

They are prone to non-analytical judgments. They have feelings. They watch the postseason like everyone else. They feel the ups and the downs, and they see and feel the emotion involved with it all.

The point being, every year we see how the postseason can alter the free-agent and trade markets during the winter. Whether a player’s value drops or rises because of playoff performance, or a team realizes a weakness it needs to address, the postseason annually shifts the offseason landscape, even if it’s just a little bit.

Pablo Sandoval benefitted from this last year. After a playoff run with the San Francisco Giants that saw him bat .366/.423/.465 with an .888 OPS despite not hitting a home run, Sandoval’s value soared in the eyes of at least one organization, and the Boston Red Sox ended up paying him $95 million over five years.

It worked in the opposite way for James Shields. After he had a 6.12 ERA in five playoff starts for the Kansas City Royals last fall, Shields suddenly became even older, and the innings on his arm became heavier. Once seen as a premier free-agent pitcher, the right-hander waited until February before signing a four-year, $75 million deal with the San Diego Padres while other pitchers have routinely surpassed nine figures—age played a big role in those signings, but some had weaker track records than Shields.

We are nearly through this year’s postseason, and the same storylines have already played out for some players and teams. The market has been altered based on early postseason exits and individual performances. Eventually track records and age are the most important things in evaluating these situations, but there is no doubt the postseason can help or hurt certain cases.

Impact on Free Agency

The top free agents playing in this postseason were David Price, Zack Greinke, Yoenis Cespedes and Jason Heyward, in random order. None of them have used these playoffs to impact their future earnings more than Price, but keep in mind it always takes only one team to be willing to pay a top-end ticket.

It could be argued that through the regular season, Price was the top starter on the open market. After posting a 2.45 ERA and 161 ERA+, the left-hander could have been looking for a contract topping $200 million, putting him in the neighborhood of Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer.

However, Price has a 7.02 ERA in this postseason, and it is 5.65 over his last eight playoff appearances. He has been so questionable, the Toronto Blue Jays had the option of saving Price for a series-deciding Game 5 start in the American League Division Series, but they elected to use Price in relief instead and start Marcus Stroman in Game 5. That has given Price just two starts through Toronto’s first nine 10 games, which is more like a No. 3 or 4 starter rather than an ace.

Once again, though, it only takes one team willing to pay. With the Los Angeles Dodgers having their lack of rotation depth exposed in the National League Division Series and the New York Yankees lacking depth all season, Price can market himself to two of the richest franchises in sports history.

Greinke, Cespedes and Heyward have not done a whole lot to alter their stocks, although Heyward’s 1.080 OPS in 16 NLDS plate appearances was impressive. One man who has: New York Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy.

Crazy: https://t.co/DJZuzBSJUG #Stud pic.twitter.com/1SEUbIQuBQ

— MLB (@MLB) October 22, 2015

Murphy is hitting .421/.436/1.026 this postseason with an uncharacteristic seven home runs in nine games. Even with objective and informed front offices, that production could hold some weight. Then again, the fact that the Mets are reportedly unwilling to re-sign Murphy is a huge albatross on his eventual value.

“He’s been great, really great,” a source told Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News, “but it changes nothing.” 

Further hurting Murphy’s value is that the Mets now plan to make him a qualifying offer of $15.8 million because he’s been so good in the postseason, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. It’s likely a PR decision since the Mets do not want to pay him that much while they have a seemingly capable second base prospect in Dilson Herrera waiting his turn, but ultimately it could mean Murphy is shied away from because he would be tied to draft compensation.

His great postseason to this point has served him well, but it might also hurt him by pulling in a qualifying offer. Then again, there are always the Yankees with their hole at second base and short right field porch.

Blue Jays starter Marco Estrada has also helped his stock in this postseason with five earned runs allowed in three starts (19.1 innings, 2.33 ERA). It has not been a fluke, either, as his ERA in his final 20 regular-season starts was 2.62 in 123.2 innings.

His value won’t rise dramatically because he will be 33 next July, but he has established himself as a capable full-time back-end starter at the very least, and a quality No. 3 at best. Without a doubt, he has earned himself a strong market that could range from the Dodgers to the Boston Red Sox.

“He’s looking pretty,” Blue Jays manager John Gibbons told reporters. “He’s a free agent. The timing is important for him.”

Impact on Trade Market

The trade market has been affected much less by the postseason than the free-agent market, mainly because guys like Murphy and Estrada will be free agents. If they were under contract beyond this season, their trade values would have soared. Also, any team weakness exposed was already known. Still, the playoffs have highlighted certain needs for certain teams.

The Dodgers bullpen issues have been known for most of the regular season since its 3.91 ERA was in the bottom half of the National League. In this postseason, that jumped to 4.61 in 13.2 innings (seven earned runs) despite its 18 strikeouts. Setup man Chris Hatcher and closer Kenley Jansen were very good—not allowing a run and striking out seven in a combined seven innings. 

In fact, four other Dodger relievers were not scored on in the NLDS against the Mets, although none of them pitched more than 1.1 innings. All of the damage came against regular-season starter Alex Wood (four runs in two innings) and Pedro Baez (three runs in 0.1 innings over two appearances).

Again, this postseason did not expose what was unknown. And this is also not a complete teardown and rebuild for the Dodgers front office, which is heading into its second offseason. An arm here or there could suffice just fine, and if they aren’t wiling to pay for such arms, they could attempt to pry away quality arms from any number of teams, including the Kansas City Royals.

The Yankees played only one postseason game, losing the American League Wild Card, but the overall inconsistency and fragileness of their rotation all season has them in the market for starting pitching. If they aren’t willing to pay for it on the open market, they are likely to turn to trade options, which could include Shields, Tyson Ross or anybody the Oakland A’s employ.

Other playoff teams could be in on rotation parts as well. The Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs could be two of them, while the St. Louis Cardinals might be in the market for a bat.

Whatever way this postseason plays out, it has already affected the offseason transaction season. Exactly how much it has is a matter of waiting and seeing.

All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.

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On the heels of a career season that could land him the National League Cy Young Award, Los Angeles Dodgers ace Zack Greinke has a decision to make regarding free agency.  

Continue for updates.

Heyman: Sources Expect Greinke to Opt Out of Contract

Friday, Oct. 16

Greinke still has three years and $71 million remaining on his contract, but according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, the 31-year-old righty will reportedly attempt to cash in even more by opting out of his deal.

The potential move doesn’t come as a big surprise since Greinke went 19-3 with a 1.66 ERA, a ridiculous 0.84 WHIP and 200 strikeouts in 222.2 innings. The expectation prior to the season was that Greinke would opt out, and that hasn’t changed now that he has an opportunity to land a contract in the neighborhood of $150 million over five years, per Heyman.

The 12-year veteran took the loss in the Dodgers’ 3-2 Game 5 NLDS defeat at the hands of the New York Mets on Thursday as he allowed three runs in 6.2 innings.

Following LA’s ouster from the playoffs, Greinke was predictably asked about his future with the Dodgers. According to Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times, he didn’t offer much with regard to his desire to wear blue and white in 2016 and beyond: “That would be nice. I guess that is my whole response.”

There is no mystery when it comes to the way Greinke’s teammates feel about him, though. Per Shaikin, Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez made it very clear that he doesn’t want the three-time All-Star and former AL Cy Young Award winner to go anywhere: “He’s been incredible the whole time he’s been here. We love him. We hope he opts to stay.”

Greinke formed a remarkable one-two punch with Clayton Kershaw atop the Dodgers’ rotation in 2015, and he has been spectacular throughout his entire tenure with the organization.

Though he enjoyed success in stops with the Kansas City Royals, the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Angels, Greinke has truly hit his stride with the Dodgers as he is 51-15 with a 2.30 ERA since signing with them in 2013.

While it hasn’t quite worked out yet, the Dodgers have been and will continue to be top contenders in the NL for as long as they have Greinke and Kershaw in the fold.

If they are going to make that happen, though, they’ll have to open up the checkbook, which is something they certainly haven’t hesitated to do, being that they have the highest payroll in Major League Baseball.

Follow @MikeChiari on Twitter.

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Incomparable. You’ve probably heard that word thrown around in connection with Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, the dynamic duo that’s poised to pitch the Los Angeles Dodgers into October.

Certainly, the likes of Greinke and Kershaw don’t come around often, and even less frequently do such immense talents occupy the same rotation.

But there is a comparison for the Dodgers’ two-headed mound monster, if an imperfect one.

We’ll talk more about the “imperfect” part in a moment. First, let’s step into the wayback machine and set the coordinates for the autumn of 2001. (Yes, that was 14 years ago. And yes, you should feel old.)

That season featured a seemingly unbeatable pitching twosome who double-handedly carried a National League West club to a thrilling World Series victory.

The club was the Arizona Diamondbacks, and the arms they rode across the Fall Classic finish line belonged to Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling.

Johnson (2.49 ERA, 249.2 innings pitched, 372 strikeouts) and Schilling (2.98 ERA, 256.2 IP, 293 K) dominated in the ’01 regular season, finishing first and second in National League Cy Young balloting, respectively. But they flipped a switch in the playoffs, changing their settings from “superb” to “superhuman.”

Schilling went 4-0 with a 1.12 ERA in 48.1 innings and started Games 1 and 5 of the National League Division Series, Game 3 of the National League Championship Series and Games 1, 4 and 7 of the World Series.

Johnson went 5-1 with a 1.52 ERA in 41.1 innings and started Game 2 of the NLDS, Games 1 and 5 of the NLCS and Games 2 and 6 of the World Series. Then, for good measure, he came out of the bullpen in Game 7 to get four crucial outs and set the table for Luis Gonzalez’s game-winning single off the New York Yankees‘ Mariano Rivera in the ninth.

Johnson and Schilling wound up sharing World Series MVP honors. It was frankly impossible to place one above the other, just as it was impossible to imagine Arizona sniffing the Commissioner’s Trophy without its pair of aces. Baseball is a team sport in the truest sense, but that 2001 title run—the only one in the D-Backs’ brief history—was as close as any two men can come to carrying an entire franchise on their backs.

In 2011, the 10-year anniversary of Schilling and Johnson’s impossible-unless-you-witnessed-it feat, Gonzalez offered a firsthand perspective, per MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert:

It was awesome. They went out there and dominated the game. They quietly competed against each other. And you loved it when one of them had a fantastic game, because you knew the other guy was going to be amped up and ready to go and outshine the other guy. It was a great mix of those two guys. It was the yin and the yang, but they did it.

The question now is: Can Greinke and Kershaw do it too?

There are parallels. Greinke (1.65 ERA, 207.2 IP, 185 K) and Kershaw (2.18 ERA, 215 IP, 272 K) are in the midst of superlative seasons and could well finish one-two in Cy Young voting, though the Chicago Cubs‘ Jake Arrieta is in the mix.

They’re also a righty-lefty combo like Schilling and Johnson. Johnson was coming off two consecutive Cy Young seasons, and so is Kershaw, his southpaw counterpart. And, as Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times outlined, Greinke and Kershaw motivate each other with the same friendly-yet-fiery competition Gonzalez described:

After Kershaw flirted with a perfect game July 23 against the Mets in New York, [catcher Yasmani] Grandal recalled a conversation he’d had with Greinke after a spring game.

“Kershaw better watch out because I’m coming after him,” Grandal recalled Greinke telling him.

They’re pushing each other to rarefied air.

Whether they’ll push the Dodgers to their first championship in 27 years remains to be seen. But if they do, they aren’t likely to do it in the same way—or, more specifically, to the same extent—as Johnson and Schilling.

Here’s a striking fact: In the 2001 postseason, Johnson and Schilling threw a combined five complete games. By contrast, Greinke and Kershaw have tossed only four complete games between them all season.

That’s the norm in today’s MLB, with its emphasis on pitch counts, relief specialists and late-game matchups. In 1998, Schilling led the majors with 15 complete games. In 1999, Johnson paced baseball with 12.

This season, four pitchers are tied for the lead with four complete games apiece.

One of those pitchers is Madison Bumgarner of the San Francisco Giants, who turned back the clock last October and threw an astounding 52.2 postseason innings, breaking the record set by Schilling in 2001.

The Giants left-hander tossed 21 frames in the World Series alone, including a gutsy Game 7 relief appearance that sealed San Francisco’s third championship in five seasons.

So it is possible, even today, to shoulder the load. More than a template, though, Bumgarner was the exception that proves the rule. Part of the reason his performance glistened so brightly—besides its utter brilliance—is that it was an anomaly among anomalies.

Likewise, what Johnson and Schilling did in ’01 is a rarity in this or any era. Having a pair of top-shelf pitchers doesn’t correlate with postseason success, as Houston Mitchell of the Los Angeles Times outlined last September:

A check of other teams with at least two dominant starters since expanded playoffs began in 1969 says otherwise. Using the criteria of at least two starting pitchers who, like Kershaw and Greinke, have a WHIP of 1.16 or lower and an ERA+ of 125 (meaning they were 25% better than the average pitcher that year), 39 other teams have two pitchers like that. One of those are the 2014 Washington Nationals, with Tanner Roark and Jordan Zimmermann. Of the other 38, only 21 made the playoffs. Only four of those teams won the World Series, with nine teams losing in the first round of the playoffs.

The 2014 Nationals didn’t end up in the World Series, and neither did the 2014 Dodgers. In fact, after sweeping the Cy Young and NL MVP awards in the regular season, Kershaw tripped over his cleats in the playoffs, going 0-2 and raising his career postseason ERA to an unsightly 5.12.

That doesn’t mean Kershaw will fade this year. But it does prove that even the greats can wilt under baseball’s brightest glare.

In all likelihood, if the Dodgers are going to spray champagne and dump confetti for the first time since the waning months of the Reagan administration, they’ll need the offense, which has scored the third-fewest runs in baseball since the All-Star break, to click. They’ll need another starting pitcher (Alex Wood? Brett Anderson?) to chip in. And their frequently wobbly bullpen must rise to the occasion.

Los Angeles is right to expect a lot from Greinke and Kershaw. They’re the studs in the stable, after all. And Dodgers fans can be forgiven for closing their eyes and letting visions of Schilling and Johnson dance in their heads.

It’s a scintillating comparison, no question.

In the end, though, some things are simply incomparable.

All statistics current as of Sept. 23 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.

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Zack Greinke is in the midst of his best season, but the Los Angeles Dodgers star finds himself on the mend with an injured calf. 

Continue for updates. 

Greinke to Miss One Start

Wednesday, Sept. 23

Per MLB Network Radio on Twitter, the Dodgers will skip Greinke’s start on Wednesday due to soreness in his calf, but he’s expected to make his next start that will presumably be on Monday against San Francisco. 

Greinke has been marvelous this season, owning an MLB-best 1.65 ERA, 0.848 WHIP and 227 ERA+. He’s been banged up at times in the past, starting just 28 games in his first season with the team, but the good news is this particular issue sounds like a short-term problem. 

The Dodgers rotation has already been tested in 2015 with Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy out for the season. Clayton Kershaw got off to a slow start, but he has found another gear and looks like the best pitcher on the planet. 

Losing Greinke for a short period of time does hurt the Dodgers, though they can survive. The advantage for Los Angeles is it’s opened a six-game lead over the San Francisco Giants with 12 games to play, so having the right-hander miss one start won’t hurt its playoff chances.   

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If Zack Greinke hasn’t cleared space in his trophy case yet, he’d better get busy. Because, while the race for the National League Cy Young Award isn’t over, the Los Angeles Dodgers‘ right-hander looks more like the prohibitive front-runner with each superlative start.

Greinke twirled his latest gem on Sunday, shutting out the Arizona Diamondbacks for eight innings while racking up eight strikeouts and issuing no walks. (The bullpen nearly coughed it up, as closer Kenley Jansen surrendered a three-run homer to Jarrod Saltalamacchia in the ninth, but the Dodgers prevailed, 4-3.)

With his ERA now sitting at a minuscule 1.61 and an imposing 17-3 record (even if you spit on pitching wins, that’s eye-opening), it’s difficult to imagine anyone else taking home the NL’s top pitching prize.

And really, it’s been that way all season.

Greinke opened his 2015 campaign by tossing six innings of two-hit, one-run ball against the San Diego Padres on April 7.

That six-inning mark would prove meaningful, because it’s the minimum number of frames Greinke has thrown in every start this season. 

He’s also allowed three earned runs or fewer in all but two of his 29 outings, and he’s kept his ERA constantly under 2.00.

There’s steady, and then there’s dominant. What Greinke is doing is some freakish combination of the two. Call it “stominant,” for lack of an actual word.

“You get spoiled when you see it every day. ‘Oh, he went six or seven innings again, gave up one run,'” Greinke’s rotation-mate, Clayton Kershaw, said, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. “That’s the sign of a great season, when your teammates are, ‘Ho hum, another great start.'”

Speaking of Kershaw, I said up there that it was difficult to imagine anyone else winning the NL Cy Young—difficult, but not impossible.

As transcendent as Greinke has been, Kershaw—the reigning NL Cy Young and MVP winner—is right there with him. And so is Jake Arrieta of the Chicago Cubs.

Here, let’s just lay the three studs’ stats on the table:

Greinke has the otherworldly ERA, but Arrieta has nudged his under 2.00 as well. And Kershaw owns the gaudy strikeout total.

Plus, all three hurlers pitch for clubs that appear ticketed for October, so voters who factor that in won’t be able to use team success as a tiebreaker.

One variable that could tip the scales toward Arrieta is that he pitches in the NL Central. Not only is the division full of hitter-happy yards, it features the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates, both of whom are on track to join the Cubs in the postseason.

The NL West, meanwhile, where Greinke and Kershaw toil, boasts only one above-.500 team besides LA (the San Francisco Giants) and three pitcher-friendly yards in Dodger Stadium, San Francisco’s AT&T Park and San Diego’s Petco Park.

It’s no surprise, as MLB.com’s Phil Rogers recently pointed out, that the NL West has produced 12 of the Senior Circuit’s last 16 Cy Young winners.

It’s a fair point. Greinke, though, has dominated on almost every mound he’s climbed.

In fact, in 20.2 combined innings at Wrigley Field, Milwaukee‘s Miller Park and Cincinnati‘s Great American Ball Park (the three NL Central stadiums in which Greinke has pitched this year) he has allowed nine hits and exactly zero earned runs.

One of the only places he’s endured what might be called a bad start was Colorado‘s Coors Field, where he yielded five runs and 10 hits in six innings. But, you know, it’s Coors Field.

There’s still a little time for Greinke to falter, and for Kershaw and Arrieta to push themselves over the top. What if Arrieta, say, threw another no-hitter to add to the one he tossed Aug. 30 against the Dodgers? Or what if Kershaw authored a masterpiece like his 15-strikeout no-no from 2014? 

In a race this close, those kind of indelible moments could be the difference. 

Of course, Greinke’s more than capable of doing something historic, like the 45.2 scoreless-innings streak he logged this season, the fourth-longest in MLB since 1960.

But if Greinke wins his second career Cy Young, it’ll likely be on the strength of his ludicrously low ERA (assuming it remains ludicrously low). ESPN’s Jayson Stark expanded on this point:

To make the case that anyone other than Greinke should win this award, you’re essentially arguing that ERA doesn’t matter. And boy, is there an irony to going down that road to build a case AGAINST Zack Greinke.

That’s because in 2009, when Greinke won his first Cy Young, it was his glittering ERA (2.16) that was the single biggest reason he won. And at the time, we actually looked at that as a breakthrough. Remember? It felt like the first time voters had looked past a guy’s win total (16, in his case) and voted for the man who had—shocker—pitched the best. Quite a concept.

Stats keep advancing, and ERA has its flaws, no argument there.

For his part, however, Greinke has been virtually flawless. You don’t have to love ERA to appreciate what he’s accomplished. You just have to love baseball.

It’s entertaining and good for the game for there to be a legitimate debate about the NL Cy Young. The next few weeks should be exceedingly interesting as Greinke, Arrieta and Kershaw make their closing arguments.

Right now, though, if I’m casting a ballot, I’m voting for Greinke and not thinking twice. He’s simply been that good. No, wait, good isn’t the right word. How about…stominant.

All stats current as of Sept. 13 and courtesy of MLB.com unless otherwise noted.

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After his Colorado Rockies were swept last week at Citi Field, Nolan Arenado explained it away by raving about the New York Mets‘ pitching.

“The Mets have four No. 1’s. We saw all four of them,” Arenado said.

No one ever says that about the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Dodgers may well have the best two starting pitchers in baseball in Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. And they may well have the most underwhelming back end of a rotation of any playoff contender.

It’s no coincidence that since the start of July, the Dodgers have gone 12-3 when Kershaw or Greinke starts a game—and 11-16 when anyone else starts.

“It’s still hard to believe that they didn’t go out and get another big starter,” one rival scout said Monday.

But they didn’t. They’ll go into the playoffs in seven weeks with Kershaw, Greinke and whoever is left, and they’ll make the best of it. And if the standings stay as they are today, they’ll open the Division Series against a Mets team that can counter with Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Jonathon Niese.

Arenado was being a little generous when he called them “four No. 1’s,” since Syndergaard is still developing and Niese isn’t in that class. But Syndergaard without a doubt has No. 1 stuff, and before long the Mets could have Steven Matz in Niese’s place.

Regardless, scouts would overwhelmingly agree that the Mets’ rotation is deeper. So which group would they take in a playoff series?

“We were just talking about that the other day [at Citi Field],” one NL scout said. “If you had one four-game series, and you had to win three games, you’d take the Mets. But in the playoffs, you’d have to give the advantage to the Dodgers, because of their experience, their track record, and the fact that they’re both true No. 1’s.”

A few necessary reminders here: The Dodgers have had Kershaw and Greinke together for two Octobers already, and they didn’t win either time (losing to the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLCS in 2013 and to the Cardinals in the Division Series in 2014). They’re 2-2 in Greinke’s four postseason starts for them, and 0-4 when Kershaw starts against the Cardinals in October.

And for all the concern about rotation depth, the team that won the World Series in 2014 did it with just one dependable starting pitcher. Take out Madison Bumgarner, and the Giants rotation last October was 1-3 with a 5.59 ERA in 11 postseason starts.

It worked, because Bumgarner was historically good and because Bruce Bochy always finds a way to win in October. But even Bochy wouldn’t want to try it again with just one starter he could count on.

What about with two?

“I’d take two great ones,” said Jim Leyland, who managed in the postseason eight times with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Florida Marlins and Detroit Tigers. “I’d like two guys you think for sure will shut them down.”

Even without asking anyone to pitch on short rest, a team like the Dodgers could use their top two starters three times in a best-of-five Division Series, and four times in a possible seven games in the LCS and World Series. Win all of those starts and you’ve got yourselves a championship.

If you’re willing to push a starter on short rest, as the Dodgers did with Kershaw each of the past two seasons, you can minimize the back of the rotation even more.

With one pitcher on short rest, your big two could start four of the five games in the first round, or five of the seven in the LCS or World Series.

It’s hard to imagine the Mets pushing any of their aces that hard, especially in a year when Harvey and Syndergaard are both subject to innings limits that could lead to extra days off or skipped starts down the stretch (general manager Sandy Alderson has said that the innings limits won’t keep them out of the postseason).

With their depth, though, the Mets would have less need to start anyone on short rest.

The Mets have other postseason questions, starting with the biggest one of all: Can they hold off the favored Washington Nationals to win the NL East? Bullpen depth has also become a significant issue, showing up over the weekend when the Pirates swept three games at Citi Field.

The Dodgers have other questions, too. Like the Mets, they tried to strengthen the middle of their bullpen at the July 31 deadline; like the Mets, they may not have done enough. The Dodgers still face a strong challenge from the Giants in the NL West, and if they need Kershaw or Greinke to pitch a wild-card game, the rotation depth would become a bigger problem.

There’s time for that to play out, and there’s time to discuss it. The question on the table today is a much simpler one: If you had your pick for October, do you take Greinke and Kershaw, or do you prefer the Mets’ deeper rotation?

I’m taking Greinke and Kershaw.

Danny Knobler covers Major League Baseball as a national columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow Danny on Twitter and talk baseball. 

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Starting pitching and superstars from both sides will determine who earns home-field advantage in the World Series when the American League and National League clash Tuesday in the 2015 MLB All-Star Game. 

The Houston Astros’ Dallas Keuchel (11-4, 2.23 ERA) will take the hill for Kansas City Royals manager Ned Yost and the American League. Zack Greinke (8-2, 1.39 ERA) of the Los Angeles Dodgers will start for San Francisco Giants’ Bruce Bochy and the National League. 

Greinke has been stellar for the Dodgers this season, but he may end up in some trouble against this AL lineup. Keuchel leads an AL pitching staff featuring eight first time All-Stars, according to Bleacher Report’s Tyler Conway. The group may be slightly inexperienced, but they may be the key to an AL victory. 

Bryce Harper, 22, of the Washington Nationals and Mike Trout, 23, of the Los Angeles Angels lead a youth movement that will take over Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati for the Midsummer Classic. A record 20 players under the age of 25 are on the two rosters, per the Star Tribune. 

Here are some bold predictions for the game based on statistics, history and the abilities of some of the key players involved.

Begin Slideshow

Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke finished the first half of the season with a 1.39 ERA, the lowest mark for any pitcher with at least 15 starts since Bob Gibson (1.06), Luis Tiant (1.24) and Don Drysdale (1.37) all entered the All-Star break with better ERAs in 1968, per ESPN Stats & Info.

Named as the National League’s starting pitcher for Tuesday’s All-Star Game in Cincinnati, Greinke owns an 8-2 record, 0.84 WHIP and 106-20 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 123.1 innings (18 starts) to go along with his sterling ERA.

Although he hasn’t quite matched the dominant strikeout numbers posted by some of baseball’s other elite starters, the 31-year-old righty looks like the early favorite for National League Cy Young honors.

However, he could still face a challenge from Washington Nationals pitcher Max Scherzer, New York Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom and Pittsburgh Pirates pitchers Gerrit Cole and A.J. Burnett. Of course, it would never be wise to count out Dodgers teammate Clayton Kershaw, who enters the break with a 2.85 ERA that is modest by his own lofty standards.

Greinke‘s historic pre-break ERA would have been good for just fourth place in 1968, known widely in baseball history as “The Year of the Pitcher.”

Gibson set a still-standing modern record with his 1.12 ERA that season, contributing to significant rule changes in 1969 that restored some hope to big league batters.

Most notably, the mound was lowered from 15 inches to 10 inches, and the vertical limit of the strike zone was reduced to only cover the area from the batter’s armpits to the top of the knees.

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The 86th annual All-Star game will take place at 8 p.m. ET Tuesday at the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. The festivities, though, got started off with a few bangs on Monday night with baseball’s Home Run Derby.  

Todd Frazier seemed all too comfortable in his home park as he did something he’d done 15 times before in 2015: hit a ball into the red-shirted screaming fans beyond the outfield wall.

The only difference? This dinger would win this year’s All-Star Home Run Derby and propel the Reds‘ third baseman into a hometown hero. 

Frazier homered in the waning seconds of the four-minute championship round to tie Pederson. He promptly won it just one pitch into his 30-second bonus round (for hitting two homers greater than 425 feet)-giving him 15 home runs in the final round. 

In a sport famous for not using a clock, it was timed rounds that made the annual competition more a dramatic spectacle than in years past. 

Frazier, who has 25 homers on the season, benefited from an energetic home crowd to capture the Derby crown over Los Angeles Dodgers rookie Joc Pederson and kick off the All-Star festivities in an exciting way.

After the competition, he mentioned how much of an effect the Cincinnati crowd had on his 39-home run performance, via ESPN’s Jayson Stark. 

“Big-time impact. Just hearing the crowd roar, call my name, adrenaline. And those last minutes of each round, [they] really picked me up and [helped] drive the ball out of the park a lot more.”

The new format proved vital to the 29-year-old, who credited the pressure and clock via Steve Gardner of USA TODAY Sports:

“You swing at everything once you’re down, no matter how much time you’ve got,” Frazier said. “When you get the opportunity, you just have to hit it out no matter where the ball’s pitched. I felt like a little kid out there in the backyard swinging at everything.”

Check out Frazier’s walk-off blast: 

He became just the second player ever to win a Home Run Derby in his home stadium, via ESPN Stats & Information. 

Frazier takes his Derby win into Tuesday’s All-Star Game where he starts at third base and bats second for the National League. Its his second appearance in the Midsummer Classic and first as a starter.

Rain Delay?

Unfortunately, the weather forecast does not look too promising for Tuesday night. Here’s the latest from the National Weather Service:  

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Northwest wind 7 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

There was concern that rain would affect Monday’s Derby, but the sky stayed clear and no postponement or delay (besides modified timing rules to quicken the pace) was necessary. 

Tonight, though, may be a different story. 

Ultimately, it’ll come down to MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred’s decision. 

Arms Race

Dodgers’ ace Zack Greinke starts on the mound for the NL with the Houston Astros‘ Dallas Keuchel opposing him for the American League. 

Greinke’s league-leading 1.39 ERA should prove a tough test for AL hitters. The former Cy Young-winner takes a 35.2-inning scoreless streak over his last five starts into the game. 

Greinke was named the NL’s starter after Washington Nationals‘ right-hander Max Scherzer pitched on Sunday. 

Keuchel has been no slouch himself, though, while going relatively unknown. In a league-high 137.1 innings, he has a 2.23 ERA and hasn’t allowed an earned run in seven of his 19 starts on the season. 

Youth Movement

After injury replacements and the Final Vote winners were announced, a record 20 All-Stars are 25 years old or younger, according to ESPN Stats & Info. 

Nats outfielder Bryce Harper, at age 22, is the youngest. He’ll appear in his third All-Star game-just the 10th player to do so before the age of 23. 

Harper will start in the outfield and hit third for the NL-a reward for his MVP-worthy first half which saw him hit .339 with a league-leading 1.168 OPS and already career-highs in home runs (26) and RBI (61). 

Harper along with five other players 25-years-old or younger will start in the Mid-Summer Classic-Pederson and Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo in the NL and Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Trout, Astros second baseman Jose Altuve and Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez in the AL. 

There’s a First Time for Everything

ESPN Stats & Info also pointed out something that’s never occurred before in an All-Star Game. 

That’s right. No Yankees or Red Sox in tonight’s starting lineups. 

Three Yankees were selected to the roster: reliever Dellin Betances, outfielder Brett Gardner and first baseman Mark Teixeira. 

Brock Holt is the lone Boston player to be chosen. 

The biggest Yankee omission might be Alex Rodriguez, who was beat out by fellow designated hitters Nelson Cruz and Prince Fielder in the AL. 

A-Rod, who turns 40 later this month, is hitting .278 with 18 home runs and 51 RBI as the three-hole hitter for the first-place Yankees. 

Home Field on the Line

As with every All-Star Game, home-field advantage is granted in the World Series for the winning league. 

Although the NL leads the all-time series 43-40-2, the AL has come out ahead as of late. The league has won the last two Midsummer Classics and 14 of the last 18. 

Coverage of baseball’s 86th All-Star Game at Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park begins at 7 p.m. ET Tuesday on FOX. 

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If he’s so inclined, Zack Greinke can end his six-year contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers after only three seasons at the end of 2015. He just better make sure he has a really good season first.

Seven starts in, it wouldn’t be fair to call his 2015 season “really good.” It’s been more like “superb.”

Greinke‘s seventh start went down Monday night against the Miami Marlins at Dodger Stadium, and it ended with him contributing to a dramatic 5-3 Dodgers victory with seven innings of one-run ball. He was denied his sixth straight win when the Dodgers bullpen turned a 2-1 lead into a 3-2 deficit in the ninth inning, but he at least secured his 15th straight non-defeat dating back to last season.

More relevant to this discussion, though, is how Greinke maintained his status as arguably the National League‘s top pitcher in the early going.

Greinke entered Monday’s start with a 1.54 ERA, which was already the best in the Senior Circuit. He exited with a 1.52 ERA, which is still the best in the Senior Circuit. He also ranks fourth in innings with 47.1 and first in RA9-WAR—that being FanGraphs‘ runs allowed-based version of Wins Above Replacement—at 2.1.

Granted, Greinke‘s 2015 season is far from over. Health permitting, he likely has another 25 or so starts still to make. Much could change in these 25 or so starts.

So far, however, Greinke is pitching like a guy who wants to find a massive payday in the coming winter.

As Eric Stephen of True Blue LA reported in February, Greinke isn’t going to make a decision on the opt-out clause in his six-year, $147 million contract until the end of the year. But there is no player in baseball more practical than him, and his willingness to follow the money is well known. If he determines that opting out at the end of the year is in his best interest, he’ll do it.

In his own words, according to Stephen: “I’m sure [the Dodgers are] open to me taking a cheap deal also. It’s just a matter of seeing what is working.”

Given that opting out would mean turning down $77 million in guaranteed money through the 2018 season, Greinke would have to be sure of a bigger payday awaiting on the free-agent market. This, of course, is another way of saying he better keep pitching like he’s been pitching.

Thing is, that might actually be doable.

There are reasons to be skeptical of Greinke‘s NL-leading 1.52 ERA. It’s a flimsy stat to begin with, and not all of his peripheral numbers pass the smell test.

Most notably, Greinke isn’t striking many guys out. He’s only striking out 7.4 batters per nine innings, quite the drop from the 9.2 K/9 rate he had last year.

On a related note, Greinke‘s velocity is down. At the start of play on Monday, FanGraphs had his average fastball clocked at 90.5 miles per hour, well below last year’s average of 91.9. And given that he’s 31 years old, that missing velocity may not be coming back.

As such, it’s easy to point to Greinke‘s .220 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) as not only the key reason for his success, but also the source of his inevitable downfall. As Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports noted, conventional wisdom suggests that number is doomed to go up:

If Greinke does indeed start experiencing worse luck on batted balls, his ERA will pay the price. And if his ERA pays the price, he may not be able to seek his price in free agency.

But while it’s easy to assume that Greinke will start getting hurt in the BABIP department, what this article presupposes is: Maybe he won’t?

Yes, pitchers don’t have a ton of control over what happens when the ball leaves the bat. But they can have some. The ability to manage contact is a skill that’s getting more attention these days, in part because we finally have figures that properly highlight how good pitchers are at it.

For example, FanGraphs has Soft%, or a pitcher’s percentage of soft-hit balls. Heading into Monday’s action, here’s what the top of the MLB leaderboard looked like:

At the start of the day, there was Greinke among the five best soft-contact merchants in the game. The average batted ball velocity data at Baseball Savant further supported this, as Greinke‘s average of 85.3 miles per hour off the bat was the fifth-lowest among qualified starters.

This would appear to be new territory for Greinke. His career Soft% is only 16.8, and his previous career best was only 22.0 back in 2011. If he stays on his current pace, he’ll shatter that.

Given that and the whole small sample size thing, maybe you feel like screaming the F word (that’s “fluke” in this case). But in reality, this actually looks like a case of Greinke getting smarter by…well, by dumbing things down.

In his first two seasons with the Dodgers, Greinke‘s repertoire of pitches was as varied as any in the game. Per Brooks Baseball, he threw five different pitches at least 10 percent of the time. 

But this year? Greinke entered Monday throwing only three pitches at least 10 percent of the time: his four-seam fastball, slider and changeup. Split things up into batter handedness splits, and you can see where this difference is coming from:

Though Greinke has technically gone from being a five-pitch pitcher to a three-pitch pitcher, realistically he’s more like a two-pitch pitcher. Right-handed batters are getting fastballs and sliders, and left-handed batters are getting fastballs and changeups.

Why go so simple? Seemingly because he has a similarly simple approach in mind for how he wants to execute these pitches.

In 2013 and 2014, Greinke‘s fastball/slider pattern against right-handed batters looked like this:

What you see there is a lot of pitches away. That pales in comparison, however, to what Greinke is doing with his fastball/slider pattern against right-handed batters in 2015:

Greinke was going away from right-handed batters with his fastballs and sliders in 2013 and 2014. Now he’s going way away, to a point where he’s not even faking an effort to keep them honest with pitches inside.

Not surprisingly, he’s doing pretty much the same thing with his fastball/changeup combination against lefties. Here’s 2013-2014:

And here’s 2015: 

Slightly different images, but the same story. What was already an away-heavy approach has become even more away-heavy. 

Now, it’s possible that Greinke isn’t doing this intentionally. Maybe he wants to be more around the zone but just hasn’t been able to execute. Maybe it’s early-season rust or something.

But I doubt it. Greinke is very rarely not in command. And given that his practical mind is also a learned mind, this would appear to be a case of him chasing soft contact by going where the numbers say to go.

Generally speaking, right-handed batters and left-handed batters have a harder time hitting outside pitches for power than they do hitting inside pitches for power. And while batted ball velocity doesn’t say that outside pitches are necessarily harder to hit with authority, the raw power numbers from Baseball Savant confirm that power production has been harder to come by on outside pitches than on inside pitches in 2015:

So you know all the soft contact Greinke is getting? That doesn’t look like such a fluke after all. He’s making an effort to stay as away from hitters as much as possible, and the numbers say that’s where a pitcher should be going if he wants to avoid getting hurt.

So far, this approach has translated in a super-low BABIP and, in turn, a super-low ERA. And while Greinke‘s ERA more than likely isn’t going to stay below 2.00 all season, it’s a good bet that he’ll be able to exit 2015 with his third straight sub-3.00 ERA.

And if he does, exercising that opt-out clause will be a no-brainer.

Yes, the winter’s free-agent market is going to be saturated with talented starting pitching. But if Greinke does opt out, there’s no question he’d be right there next to David Price, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann among the best of the best. And if James Shields can get $75 million coming off a 3.21 ERA in his age-32 season, Greinke could surely do better coming off a 2.00-ish ERA in his age-31 season.

But this is a matter for later, of course. Greinke will cross that bridge when he gets to it. For now, he’ll probably just keep staying away.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.

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